Next Nova Scotia general election

[DistingFlyer]

Steve Craig back in the lead in Sackville - Cobequid; if he holds on, then the Tories have kept both by-election gains. For that matter, every by-election winner except one (Murray Ryan in Northside - Westmount) has held on.

[DC Al Fine]

Iain Rankin is conceding the race to Tim Houston

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Question about the lack of fixed election dates in NS...couldn't a premier in theory just never call an election to hold on to power?

[DistingFlyer]

Question about the lack of fixed election dates in NS...couldn't a premier in theory just never call an election to hold on to power?

The Constitution gives a limit of five years; sometimes they wait the full five (like Dick Hatfield in New Brunswick back in 1987).

[MaxQue]

Question about the lack of fixed election dates in NS...couldn't a premier in theory just never call an election to hold on to power?

No, section 4(1) of Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms says
 
No House of Commons and no legislative assembly shall continue for longer than five years from the date fixed for the return of the writs at a general election of its members

There was a similar clause in the Constitution for Quebec and Ontario, one stating the Constitutions of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick continued to apply in regards to their Legislatures (which included stipulations about maximum term lenghts) and sections in laws creating the other provinces before 1982.

[King of Kensington]

A very quick regional seat count.

Metro Halifax

Liberals  9
NDP  7
PCs  6

Cape Breton

PCs  4
Liberals  2
NDP  2

Rural Mainland

PCs  20
Liberals  4

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

CTV called a PC majority

[King of Kensington]

Rankin cuts off Burrill's speech.  So much for Maritime friendliness!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A very quick regional seat count.

Metro Halifax

Liberals  9
NDP  7
PCs  6

Cape Breton

PCs  4
Liberals  2
NDP  2

Rural Mainland

PCs  20
Liberals  4

This PC majority was brought to you by Rural Mainland. Good healthcare is good!

[DistingFlyer]

Turnout may be better than expected: counts have completed in four ridings, and the number of votes cast is up appreciably in three of them (Clare, Hants West & Lunenberg West; down in Northside - Westmount).

[DistingFlyer]

Glace Bay count complete, and John White has gained it for the Tories by 33 votes.

[Oryxslayer]

Glace Bay gives the CBC enough info to call it a PC majority.

[DistingFlyer]

Fairview - Clayton Park count complete too, with Patricia Arab keeping it for the Grits after trailing for most of the night.

NDP now down in both MLAs and vote share from the last election.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Once again my shoddy election prediction skills are on display again

You got Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin when basically no one else did so that's a pretty good call

[beesley]

One of those elections which will make perfect sense in hindsight, but not so much at the time. Great result for the PCs.

Anyone know what happened in Northside Westmount? I'm aware the Liberal candidate was good and the PC candidate only just won the by-election but it's an odd one.

[DC Al Fine]

It seems the NDP result worsened overnight. They've lost one seat compared to 2017 ans more or less broke even in the popular vote. I have no idea what constitutes must-resign result for the NDP. Any Dippers want to weigh in?

One of those elections which will make perfect sense in hindsight, but not so much at the time. Great result for the PCs.

Anyone know what happened in Northside Westmount? I'm aware the Liberal candidate was good and the PC candidate only just won the by-election but it's an odd one.

It's mostly the Liberal candidate (which I admittedly missed), but also, there were issues with the Tory's nomination in the by-election. The Tories fired their candidate and appointed the one who lost last night. The fired candidate ran as an independent and got nearly 20% of the vote, nearly costing the Tories the seat. I guess he was never able to shake those issues.

[DC Al Fine]

On other thing I noticed: the shift of the Liberals to being the party of the Halifax suburbs is really evident in these results. Looks very different from their previous losses.

[VPH]

Glace Bay gives the CBC enough info to call it a PC majority.

Glace Bay hasn't gone for the PC's in nearly 40 years. Wow.

[DistingFlyer]

A few polls still left to come in (one in Cumberland North, one in Dartmouth South, two in Halifax Chebucto & seven in Halifax Citadel) but the picture's complete enough to look at a regional breakdown:

Cape Breton
Lib - 39.9% (+7%), 2 MLAs (-1)
PC - 38.3% (-10%), 5 MLAs (+1)
NDP - 20.8% (+3), 1 MLA

Metro
Lib - 39.0% (-2%), 11 MLAs (-1)
NDP - 30.8% (+3%), 5 MLAs
PC - 27.3% (+1%), 5 MLAs (+1)

East Mainland
PC - 51.5% (+5%), 10 MLAs (+4)
Lib - 28.6% (-5%), 0 MLAs (-4)
NDP - 12.7% (-6%), 0 MLAs (-1)

(Excluding Cumberland North, the Tory vote is up 10%, Grits down 5% & NDP down 6%)

West Mainland
PC - 45.1% (+13%), 11 MLAs (+7)
Lib - 37.7% (-9%), 4 MLAs (-7)
NDP - 13.8% (-4%)


Biggest margins of victory (%):
PC - Colton LeBlanc wins Argyle by 3014 (68.0%)
Lib - Brendan Maguire wins Halifax Atlantic by 2473 (32.4%)
NDP - Claudia Chender wins Dartmouth South by 2606 (36.0%)

Largest vote shares:
PC - Colton LeBlanc wins Argyle with 82.4%
Lib - Zach Churchill wins Yarmouth with 56.3%
NDP - Suzy Hansen wins Halifax Needham with 59.0%

The Tory vote in Argyle (82.4%) is a new record, beating the 2013 Liberal vote in Yarmouth (82.3%).

Average margin of victory (%):
PC - 20.2% (down from 23.4%)
Lib - 16.2% (up from 15.8%)
NDP - 18.7% (up from 11.1%)
Overall - 18.8% (up from 18.7%)

Average vote share (winning candidates):
PC - 51.4% (down from 53.8%)
Lib - 47.7% (up from 46.7%)
NDP - 50.7% (up from 44.1%)
Overall - 50.2% (up from 49.5%)


Breaking down constituencies into safe (>25%), moderate (10-25%) & marginal (<10%), here's how they look:
PC - 8 / 13 / 10
Lib - 4 / 9 / 4
NDP - 2 / 2 / 2
Overall - 14 / 25 / 16

The percentage of safe seats has remained constant for three elections in a row.


Overall, we've gone from a very efficient Liberal vote four years ago to a very efficient Tory vote yesterday.

[DistingFlyer]

Glace Bay gives the CBC enough info to call it a PC majority.

Glace Bay hasn't gone for the PC's in nearly 40 years. Wow.

They came close four years ago, jumping from 5% (75% behind the Liberals) to 41% (only 5% behind); the biggest-ever swing that didn't result in a seat changing hands.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at both first- and second-place finishes, here's how things stand:

Lib - 96.4% (17 winners, 36 runners-up) (up from 96.1%)
PC - 78.2% (31 winners, 12 runners-up) (up from 72.5%)
NDP - 23.6% (6 winners, 7 runners-up) (down from 31.4%)

[Hatman 🍁]

I was walking around downtown last night with a friend, and noticed the results on someone's TV through a window. The NDP were on 10 seats, so I rushed home to follow the results. What a let down!

Burrill should probably be tossed. Basically status quo, but down 2 seats (let's be honest, they're not going to win the seat they're leading in) from the last election. I suspect he hangs on though. I'm happy they at least hung on to one Cape Breton seat. Too bad Morgan couldn't win Glace Bay.

[Central Lake]

Question:
Does the riding of Argyle overlap with the federal riding of West Nova?

[DistingFlyer]

Question:
Does the riding of Argyle overlap with the federal riding of West Nova?

Yes (which is why Chris d'Entremont ran there two years ago).

[Benjamin Frank]

Final results just came in for Halifax-Citadel-Sable Island and the NDP did manage to secure one gain as Lisa Lachance defeated Labi Kousoulis by 441 votes.  Both of Iain Rankin's leadership rivals went down to defeat.