Next Nova Scotia general election

[mileslunn]

Its going to be a tight race and minority looks more likely than majority but either PCs or Liberals could win a majority.  Since PCs have momentum and usually they tend to outperform polls, I am going to predict a PC minority.  Possible Liberals-NDP gang up to keep them out, but that would backfire spectacularly.  Really little ideological difference between two so its not like provinces further West where this might happen.  More comparable to PEI where Liberals and Greens could have united (not now but on election night) to keep PCs, but they didn't and NS PCs are very much like PEI PCs in ideological orientation.

[Benjamin Frank]

Its going to be a tight race and minority looks more likely than majority but either PCs or Liberals could win a majority.  Since PCs have momentum and usually they tend to outperform polls, I am going to predict a PC minority.  Possible Liberals-NDP gang up to keep them out, but that would backfire spectacularly.  Really little ideological difference between two so its not like provinces further West where this might happen.  More comparable to PEI where Liberals and Greens could have united (not now but on election night) to keep PCs, but they didn't and NS PCs are very much like PEI PCs in ideological orientation.

I don't know if this makes much difference to Gary Burrill, but two (and maybe more, I don't know) Darrell Dexter NDP cabinet ministers have endorsed the P.C: I believe the first was Charlie Parker who lost a P.C nomination and recently Denise Peterson-Rafuse. 

Gary Burrill strikes me as being such a sanctimonious purist that I don't know if he could do a deal with either the Liberals or the P.Cs, but then, the same thing was said about Senator Bernie Sanders and he seems determined now to be more pragmatic now that he actually has a chance to get things done.  So, all in all I'd suspect that the pressure from the NDP would be on Gary Burrill to do a deal with the P.Cs.

[mileslunn]

Forum out early and largely same as Mainstreet http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/3081/tories-and-liberals-neck-and-neck-in-upcoming-nova-scotia-provincial-election/ .  Its going to be close but if either PCs or Liberals do a bit better than expected a narrow majority possible, although minority looks more likely than majority.

[Benjamin Frank]

Forum out early and largely same as Mainstreet http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/3081/tories-and-liberals-neck-and-neck-in-upcoming-nova-scotia-provincial-election/ .  Its going to be close but if either PCs or Liberals do a bit better than expected a narrow majority possible, although minority looks more likely than majority.

These polls are basically the same as the 2017 election result.

[beesley]

Also, probably better for the Liberals due to early voting when the numbers were a bit better?

[Oryxslayer]

Also, probably better for the Liberals due to early voting when the numbers were a bit better?

Theoretically the postal votes could have banked votes for the Liberals and save their administration. However the large number of undecided voters suggests that late deciders could be more consequential than any other group.

[jaichind]

When times does the polls close ?

[DC Al Fine]

When times does the polls close ?

8pm Atlantic time

[DC Al Fine]

Another thing to watch out for is the vote distributions of each party. Last time the Tories ran up the score in Cape Breton while narrowly losing seats in the rural mainland (sounds familiar doesn't it). Will have to see if that repeats next time.

[DC Al Fine]

And my prediction:

Liberal: 24
Tory: 23
NDP: 7
Independent: 1

I'm too lazy to write out every single seat, but here's a condensed version of my seat by seat prediction:

Independent: Smith-McCrossin in Cumberland North

NDP: All four currently held seats retained plus gains in Glace Bay-Dominion, Halifax Armdale and Sydney-Membertou

PC: All currently held seats retained, plus pickups in Antigonish, Colchester North, Guysborough-Tracadie  Lunenburg, Lunenburg West, Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank.

Liberal: Losses noted above. Pick up Shelburne and Clare out of redistribution, pick up Richmond from Independent Alana Paon.

[Benjamin Frank]

My prediction
Liberal: 28
P.C: 21
NDP: 6

[Hatman 🍁]

And my prediction:

Liberal: 24
Tory: 23
NDP: 7
Independent: 1

I'm too lazy to write out every single seat, but here's a condensed version of my seat by seat prediction:

Independent: Smith-McCrossin in Cumberland North

NDP: All four currently held seats retained plus gains in Glace Bay-Dominion, Halifax Armdale and Sydney-Membertou

PC: All currently held seats retained, plus pickups in Antigonish, Colchester North, Guysborough-Tracadie  Lunenburg, Lunenburg West, Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank.

Liberal: Losses noted above. Pick up Shelburne and Clare out of redistribution, pick up Richmond from Independent Alana Paon.

You don't think the NDP has a shot of winning Sackville back?

[DC Al Fine]

And my prediction:

Liberal: 24
Tory: 23
NDP: 7
Independent: 1

I'm too lazy to write out every single seat, but here's a condensed version of my seat by seat prediction:

Independent: Smith-McCrossin in Cumberland North

NDP: All four currently held seats retained plus gains in Glace Bay-Dominion, Halifax Armdale and Sydney-Membertou

PC: All currently held seats retained, plus pickups in Antigonish, Colchester North, Guysborough-Tracadie  Lunenburg, Lunenburg West, Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank.

Liberal: Losses noted above. Pick up Shelburne and Clare out of redistribution, pick up Richmond from Independent Alana Paon.

You don't think the NDP has a shot of winning Sackville back?

Oh they have a shot, I'm just not doing tossups.

[beesley]

lmao

[DC Al Fine]

At least do it right and talk up the Atlantica Party

[DistingFlyer]

Doesn't look like much of a change overall from the last election if the latest polls are to be believed, with Liberals likely to make some gains in Cape Breton but drop a couple on the mainland.

Prediction (+/-2):
Liberals - 29
Conservatives - 20
New Democrats - 6

(Notional 2017 results gave the Liberals 30 MLAs, the Tories 18 and the NDP 7; if anything the redistribution to restore the old protected ridings is what will preserve the Liberal majority.)

Voted early this morning; Halifax Citadel - Sable Island is my constituency.

[DL]

One thing to keep in mind is that elections are more "personality based" in Atlantic Canada so being an incumbent is often a big advantage. A LOT of Liberals are not running for re-election meaning that a number of seats that "on paper" look like easy Liberal holds are actually more like tossups because with no incumbent all bets are off. 

[DistingFlyer]

One thing to keep in mind is that elections are more "personality based" in Atlantic Canada so being an incumbent is often a big advantage. A LOT of Liberals are not running for re-election meaning that a number of seats that "on paper" look like easy Liberal holds are actually more like tossups because with no incumbent all bets are off. 

Quite true, particularly in NS (though less so in HRM). Another reason for the Liberals hanging onto their majority last time: almost all their rural MLAs re-offered.

[DL]

By my count there are 7 Liberals not running again from outside HRM, including Stephen McNeil. These include MLAs for Annapolis, Colchester North, Lunenburg West, Kings West, Glace Bay, Hants West and Clare-Digby - plus redistribution has changed some riding boundaries a lot...that creates a lot of vulnerable Liberal seats

[Estrella]

Looking at maps, I noticed that there's a cluster of four Liberal seats on the coast of Bay of Fundy that they held by big margins in every election since 2003, regardless of how rest of the province or nearby seats voted. Anybody know what's behind that?

[DL]

Looking at maps, I noticed that there's a cluster of four Liberal seats on the coast of Bay of Fundy that they held by big margins in every election since 2003, regardless of how rest of the province or nearby seats voted. Anybody know what's behind that?

IMHO its largely due to some popular Liberal incumbents in that area, plus it was the home region of retiring Liberal Premier Stephen McNeil. Its not as if that part of the province is traditionally all that Liberal - several of those seats have gone Tory in the past and the federal riding that covers that area is often hotly contested.

[DC Al Fine]

Results feed:

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/nova-scotia/2021/results/

Polls close in 90 minutes

[DC Al Fine]

Looking at maps, I noticed that there's a cluster of four Liberal seats on the coast of Bay of Fundy that they held by big margins in every election since 2003, regardless of how rest of the province or nearby seats voted. Anybody know what's behind that?

IMHO its largely due to some popular Liberal incumbents in that area, plus it was the home region of retiring Liberal Premier Stephen McNeil. Its not as if that part of the province is traditionally all that Liberal - several of those seats have gone Tory in the past and the federal riding that covers that area is often hotly contested.

Digby and Clare are traditional Liberal districts. Annapolis and Kings West are more Tory friendly historically, and aremore the result of very popular and effective local incumbents.

[Estrella]

[Continential]

The polls have closed