What is the political future of Michigan?

[GregTheGreat657]

MI swung heavy Republican in 2016, but swung to the left in 2020. Will it continue moving right? Will it become a titanium tilt-lean D state? Or will it started moving back to the left without Trump on the ballot, even if the GOP candidate is Trumpian?

[Adjective-Statement]

If trends hold, might be the last of the Rust Belt swing states to become Republican after Pennsylvania stops being a bellwether. But there are plenty of potential black swan events, like a Detroit revival or changes in party platforms. I defer to knowledgable Michiganders on that, though.

[Proud Family Values]

Stone cold swing state.

[#LANK]

MI is still more structurally D than WI/PA due to its larger AA/Arab-American
populations. Perhaps rebuilding organized labor can recapture a sliver of working-class D voters who flipped in '16, though by-and-large the trends in North MI+UP are here to stay. 

The counter is variable-T accelerated trends in Grand Rapids Metro and Oakland County. Have to see how things play out. For now, all we know is the freiwal are no longer states Ds can take for granted, and will need to spend more resources on to win federal races.

[dw93]

A Democratic lean state for the rest of this decade that'll become a Republican leaning swing state in the 2030s. I actually think MI will be to the right of PA after 2030.

[Chips]

A reliable swing state that could go one way or the other for the next few elections. Will vote for the national winner in every election for a couple decades I think.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think it's going to be what Pennsylvania was around 2000.  Fools gold for Republicans but with pretty close margins.  I actually think it's not going to be as close without Trump on the ballot in 2024.  But I could see it then getting tighter and tighter.

[Skill and Chance]

I keep thinking it's one cycle away from being Ohio 2016, but it actually swung pretty hard to Biden so IDK?

[Dark Horse]

Michigan in the 2020s/30s will be similar to Ohio in the 90s/00s. A must-win state that votes 1-4 pts to the right of the PV.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

It did trend toward Biden in 2020, but by less than a point.  And Biden was the best type of candidate to take it back. 

It'll remain a pure swing state in 2024 (perhaps a point left of the tipping point state) and might trend right slightly by 2028, as losing GA and possibly losing AZ by then will cause the GOP to put a tonne of resources into MI+PA.

[CascadianIndy]

Tilt D until the mid-2030s, when it moves in bellwether/true tossup/Tilt R territory. It's still the most (Atlas) red out of the trio.

[David Hume]

MI is still more structurally D than WI/PA due to its larger AA/Arab-American
populations. Perhaps rebuilding organized labor can recapture a sliver of working-class D voters who flipped in '16, though by-and-large the trends in North MI+UP are here to stay. 

The counter is variable-T accelerated trends in Grand Rapids Metro and Oakland County. Have to see how things play out. For now, all we know is the freiwal are no longer states Ds can take for granted, and will need to spend more resources on to win federal races.

MI is much less polarized than PA right now, which means D has more to lose in the rural. Detroit is declining while Philly is not. I think MI will trend R faster than PA. It probably will still be left of PA in 2024, but moving to it's right very soon.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

It will probably be what Ohio was in the 2000s (apologies to everyone from Michigan and Ohio), a swing state that votes a bit to the right of the PV.

[THG]

A swing state, but not as much of a tossup/bellwether as PA.

[DS0816]

MI swung heavy Republican in 2016, but swung to the left in 2020. Will it continue moving right? Will it become a titanium tilt-lean D state? Or will it started moving back to the left without Trump on the ballot, even if the GOP candidate is Trumpian?

Bellwether state.

The Rust Belt trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are the only states which voted for the United States presidential-election winners of 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020.

Three of those four election cycles were won by the Democrats. (That historically indicates realignment.) So it is significant these three states were the only ones carried in each of these four cycles.

More to consider…

In the 2016 and 2018 United States House of Representatives elections, Michigan came closest to matching the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, with R+1.06 (nationally R+1.08) and D+7.68 (nationally D+8.56). The Rust Belt trio’s combined 2018 U.S. House margin was an average +8.51 to the national +8.56. Of the 2020 Democratic pickup states at the level for U.S. President, Michigan’s U.S. House margin (D+1.31) was closest to the national result (D+3.12).

The ranks of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan as 2016 Republican pickups for Donald Trump gave him his 270th, 290th, and 306th [original] electoral votes. On the flip side, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as 2020 Democratic pickups for Joe Biden gave him his 249th, 269th, and 279th electoral votes.

Since this thread is about Michigan—and that it is connected with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—it is likely (as are the other two) to continue as a bellwether. For a fifth consecutive cycle (2024 Democratic hold or Republican pickup of the presidency of the United States), 2028 (a sixth consecutive cycle following what plays out in 2024), and beyond.

[MarkD]

A reliable swing state that could go one way or the other for the next few elections. Will vote for the national winner in every election for a couple decades I think.

^^^

This.

[MABA 2020]

A swing state before eventually becoming a red state