Climate change and internal migration

[Samof94]

I personally think they this is an inevitability in this country and every other one out other. This is because many places will literally be uninhabitable within a century given they’ll be underwater. Southern Louisiana is an obvious example as is Venice. What are your opinions on this given that this will invariably change things, especially regarding Florida.

[Ferguson97]

Isn't the consensus that the Midwest/Great Lakes area will be hotbeds for climate refugees?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Isn't the consensus that the Midwest/Great Lakes area will be hotbeds for climate refugees?

That's been a talking point of mine--inspired by an Averroes post--for about the past year. For probably unrelated reasons, Marquette in the Upper Peninsula already has a booking property market.

[Person Man]

Isn't the consensus that the Midwest/Great Lakes area will be hotbeds for climate refugees?

That's been a talking point of mine--inspired by an Averroes post--for about the past year. For probably unrelated reasons, Marquette in the Upper Peninsula already has a booking property market.

How bad are we expecting the climate to get in a place like Florida? I can definitely see the Southwest becoming inhabitable if the Colorado River finally dies up.

[Del Tachi]

This idea has always seemed like fanciful, anti-Southern wishcasting perpetuated by massively online political types.

If you listen to the climate zealots, we're already feeling the effects of climate change now yet the coastal/warm parts of the country remain the fastest-growing, lol

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Isn't the consensus that the Midwest/Great Lakes area will be hotbeds for climate refugees?

That's been a talking point of mine--inspired by an Averroes post--for about the past year. For probably unrelated reasons, Marquette in the Upper Peninsula already has a booking property market.

How bad are we expecting the climate to get in a place like Florida? I can definitely see the Southwest becoming inhabitable if the Colorado River finally dies up.

South Florida is one of very few highly populated places in the US where the main climate risk is sea level rise (and through that, drinking water depletion) as opposed to heat waves, drought, or extreme weather. Although it isn’t like unusually hot weather hasn’t already made an impact…

Gonna' float the theory that the unusually hot weather in 2020 exacerbated whatever anti-lockdown/"approval of 45's economy" R swing was already going to happen.

Miami-Dade and literally all of South Texas are the obvious answers here. I was a doomer on Biden's Hispanic support but SHEESH!

It was unusually hot in Miami last year; I wonder if that had any impact on people’s lockdown attitudes or the election results.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2020-04-14-miami-april-record-warm-low-80-degrees-hottest-year-to-date

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1250382143479369729?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/29/miami-hottest-week/

"the collapse for Democrats wasn't just with Cubans. It was across all racial groups."

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1325809061384888321
Comments are interesting.

[Vosem]

I personally think they this is an inevitability in this country and every other one out other. This is because many places will literally be uninhabitable within a century given they’ll be underwater. Southern Louisiana is an obvious example as is Venice. What are your opinions on this given that this will invariably change things, especially regarding Florida.

Keeping places which are below sea level above water artificially, such as by the use of dikes, is a technology that already existed in medieval times, and is basically not challenging for a contemporary First World society. South Florida is growing much faster than the United States as a whole, and absent mistakes made by political leadership I sort of expect that to continue be the case throughout my lifetime. A pattern you're seeing in lots of large countries (certainly the US and China) is migration from colder to warmer areas, and I expect this will be the predominant form of climate migration in developed countries. (In developing countries, yes, things might be rather different).

Water crises in the West might indeed lead to back-migrations to the East depending on how well or poorly resources are managed -- my understanding is that, while SLC and Phoenix are not unsustainable, their resources do require careful management. But the main threat to New Orleans is political mismanagement, and the main threat to Miami is (potentially) having the misfortune to get a city government that would work like New Orleans'. But I expect Miami to be a significantly larger city when I die than it is today.

[jamestroll]

This idea has always seemed like fanciful, anti-Southern wishcasting perpetuated by massively online political types.

If you listen to the climate zealots, we're already feeling the effects of climate change now yet the coastal/warm parts of the country remain the fastest-growing, lol

Well, the interior west is not going to be sustainable. That is the zone of the country I am most concerned about.

I personally think they this is an inevitability in this country and every other one out other. This is because many places will literally be uninhabitable within a century given they’ll be underwater. Southern Louisiana is an obvious example as is Venice. What are your opinions on this given that this will invariably change things, especially regarding Florida.

Keeping places which are below sea level above water artificially, such as by the use of dikes, is a technology that already existed in medieval times, and is basically not challenging for a contemporary First World society. South Florida is growing much faster than the United States as a whole, and absent mistakes made by political leadership I sort of expect that to continue be the case throughout my lifetime. A pattern you're seeing in lots of large countries (certainly the US and China) is migration from colder to warmer areas, and I expect this will be the predominant form of climate migration in developed countries. (In developing countries, yes, things might be rather different).

Water crises in the West might indeed lead to back-migrations to the East depending on how well or poorly resources are managed -- my understanding is that, while SLC and Phoenix are not unsustainable, their resources do require careful management. But the main threat to New Orleans is political mismanagement, and the main threat to Miami is (potentially) having the misfortune to get a city government that would work like New Orleans'. But I expect Miami to be a significantly larger city when I die than it is today.

Pretty much this... and Salt Lake City would be especially vulnerable. Its water supply is the most fragile and you could not pipe desalinated up hill 4,500 feet from the pacific ocean. Well you technically could, but it would not be feasible.

Phoenix is actually pretty good on the water front for an arid city.

[beaver2.0]

Wheeling, WV will be the biggest city within 40 years.  Wall Street will be replaced with McColloch Street.

[Aurelius]

Isn't the consensus that the Midwest/Great Lakes area will be hotbeds for climate refugees?

I expect that the same will be true in those parts of the northern interior west with plentiful water supply - Montana and northern Idaho, mainly. I would not be surprised if Montana and Idaho have 5+ million people apiece in 60 or 70 years.

[Samof94]

Isn't the consensus that the Midwest/Great Lakes area will be hotbeds for climate refugees?

I expect that the same will be true in those parts of the northern interior west with plentiful water supply - Montana and northern Idaho, mainly. I would not be surprised if Montana and Idaho have 5+ million people apiece in 60 or 70 years.

Prairie provinces in Canada too.

[Cassandra]

I personally think they this is an inevitability in this country and every other one out other. This is because many places will literally be uninhabitable within a century given they’ll be underwater. Southern Louisiana is an obvious example as is Venice. What are your opinions on this given that this will invariably change things, especially regarding Florida.

Keeping places which are below sea level above water artificially, such as by the use of dikes, is a technology that already existed in medieval times, and is basically not challenging for a contemporary First World society. South Florida is growing much faster than the United States as a whole, and absent mistakes made by political leadership I sort of expect that to continue be the case throughout my lifetime. A pattern you're seeing in lots of large countries (certainly the US and China) is migration from colder to warmer areas, and I expect this will be the predominant form of climate migration in developed countries. (In developing countries, yes, things might be rather different).

Water crises in the West might indeed lead to back-migrations to the East depending on how well or poorly resources are managed -- my understanding is that, while SLC and Phoenix are not unsustainable, their resources do require careful management. But the main threat to New Orleans is political mismanagement, and the main threat to Miami is (potentially) having the misfortune to get a city government that would work like New Orleans'. But I expect Miami to be a significantly larger city when I die than it is today.

Such an engineering project in southern Florida should be technically feasible, however I am skeptical 21st century America has will or foresight to engage in such an endeavor. Which feels ridiculous given the consequences of not Netherlandizing south Florida, but I'll believe when I see it. Also, the intrusion of salt water into south Florida's water table is a unique problem that dikes and sea walls won't fix. I honestly expect Florida migration to turn net-negative by next decade

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I personally think they this is an inevitability in this country and every other one out other. This is because many places will literally be uninhabitable within a century given they’ll be underwater. Southern Louisiana is an obvious example as is Venice. What are your opinions on this given that this will invariably change things, especially regarding Florida.

Keeping places which are below sea level above water artificially, such as by the use of dikes, is a technology that already existed in medieval times, and is basically not challenging for a contemporary First World society. South Florida is growing much faster than the United States as a whole, and absent mistakes made by political leadership I sort of expect that to continue be the case throughout my lifetime. A pattern you're seeing in lots of large countries (certainly the US and China) is migration from colder to warmer areas, and I expect this will be the predominant form of climate migration in developed countries. (In developing countries, yes, things might be rather different).

Water crises in the West might indeed lead to back-migrations to the East depending on how well or poorly resources are managed -- my understanding is that, while SLC and Phoenix are not unsustainable, their resources do require careful management. But the main threat to New Orleans is political mismanagement, and the main threat to Miami is (potentially) having the misfortune to get a city government that would work like New Orleans'. But I expect Miami to be a significantly larger city when I die than it is today.

Such an engineering project in southern Florida should be technically feasible.

It is not, because of limestone rock. Miami's great hope is to ensure sea level rise remains below 5 feet, or to literally raise the ground level a couple feet--reconstructing most buildings in the process.

[Donerail]

Keeping places which are below sea level above water artificially, such as by the use of dikes, is a technology that already existed in medieval times, and is basically not challenging for a contemporary First World society.

As a poster, you have of course consistently defined yourself through arrogance and ideological wishcasting, but this is truly next level. I'm in awe.

[Person Man]

Right now, Central Florida gets between 1-3 really nasty cold fronts each year where they get frosts maybe one or two mornings in a row. Every few years, they will get a bonafide freeze. Where do you think this will be by 2050? Maybe if the Everglades floods with sea water, the climate in Orlando and Tampa will be like Miami's today. The Geology is slightly better in Central Florida, too but not by much.

I also think parts of Wyoming and Colorado might start feel a lot like California by then, too. As more places become uninhabitable, others will become more inhabitable. Maybe the Great Lakes will feel more like DC or North Carolina by the end of my life (provided I actually die from "old age").