If Cuba's regime changes, will R's advantages in FL shrink?

[David Hume]

Cuban immigrants are significantly more republican than latinos in general. The most important reason is they hate the leftist dictatorship in Cuba and favor right wing policies. If the Communist party of Cuba fail, who this altitude smooth out, and as a result R's advantages shrink?

[Alben Barkley]

Possibly. It certainly shouldn't hurt if it becomes a less salient issue, and if it happens under the watch of a Democratic president, all the better.

What could hurt is the loud morons on the American left who are unironically supporting the Cuban regime. Fairly or not, in the eyes of most people they are associated with the Democratic Party. I hope Biden makes it very clear that they are not, and vigorously supports the anti-regime protesters in Cuba.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Unsure, but Lean No. The GOP’s relative strength in FL isn’t limited to Cuban exiles and their descendants- it’s also with (mostly white, mostly Midwestern) retirees.

[Suburbia]

Unsure, but Lean No. The GOP’s relative strength in FL isn’t limited to Cuban exiles and their descendants- it’s also with (mostly white, mostly Midwestern) retirees.

mostly white and Midwestern and Northeastern-New England retirees (NY/NJ/CT/PA/ME/MA)

[seeking mystical annihilation]

Even if Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach had both 2016's margins and 2020's turnout, it wouldn't be enough to flip the state. The raw votes in heavily-white exurbs are just too much to overcome now, even if they twitch a hair towards the Dems.

At any rate, Cubans aren't single-issue voters, and many Cuban-American families in the region were quite conservative before the revolution.

[UNL]

I could totally se that

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

The Republican advantage is quite small in FL to begin with, and while I don’t think a slight leftward shift among Cuban voters would drastically change FL, it could make the difference in a close race.

[Skill and Chance]

No.  Anything that raises the salience of Cuba as an issue should help the FL GOP.  This is more likely to make the 2020 shift in Miami-Dade permanent.

[TodayJunior]

I voted “not clear at this point”.

It will depend if this hypothetical new regime is an actual successful democracy. If so, the need to flee would be gone, and some may even return to their original homeland. So the R advantage would shrink in this scenario.

If, however, a new regime is somehow worse as a result, and it happens during a Democrat admin, I would say the R advantage increases very quickly overnight. FL and TX essentially swap places electorally. Miami-Dade County alone accounts for 10-12% of the state’s total vote, and margins matter significantly.



As an aside, to put this in context of a seismic shift occurring due to one event, New Orleans was never the same after Hurricane Katrina. As a result of a decrease in population in that one area, this shifted the state as a whole from a 10% to a 20% margin on the national level, and it has not gone back.

[DCUS]

Cuban immigrants are significantly more republican than latinos in general. The most important reason is they hate the leftist dictatorship in Cuba and favor right wing policies. If the Communist party of Cuba fail, who this altitude smooth out, and as a result R's advantages shrink?

Voted no. First-generation Cuban immigrants will still hate communism, even if the regime changes.

[Chips]

#3.

[Bismarck]

Nah. Cubans are white for all intents and purposes. I believe Mexicans and Cubans are the key to the future of the Republican Party. Dominicans and Puerto Rican’s will probably always vote dem.

[THG]

Cubans are not simply Republican because of the Castro regime, so no.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think the GOP advantage in FL lately is also linked to something not discussed on this board much.  There are a lot of Southerners moving further south as their areas have become more expensive and more "northern."  Or in other cases when local industries collapse.  This is definitely happening in parts of rural Virginia.  I wouldn't be surprised if it's happening throughout the South.  Florida seems like the go to destination.  Very low cost of living, more going on, better job opportunities.  It not only explains why Republicans are overperforming in Florida but why Democrats are over performing elsewhere in the South. 

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Very low cost of living, more going on, better job opportunities.  It not only explains why Republicans are overperforming in Florida but why Democrats are over performing elsewhere in the South. 

Depends where you live

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think the GOP advantage in FL lately is also linked to something not discussed on this board much.  There are a lot of Southerners moving further south as their areas have become more expensive and more "northern."  Or in other cases when local industries collapse.  This is definitely happening in parts of rural Virginia.  I wouldn't be surprised if it's happening throughout the South.  Florida seems like the go to destination.  Very low cost of living, more going on, better job opportunities.  It not only explains why Republicans are overperforming in Florida but why Democrats are over performing elsewhere in the South. 

I don't fully agree with this, but I do think there is something to be said (particularly post-covid) about how much favorable attention Florida has gotten in conservative circles/criticism in progressive ones having some amount of impact on who decides to move there.

[Don't Tread on Me]

Even if Cuba's regime changes, you still have conservative-leaning migrants from Venezuela and Guatemala. While it might not have as strong of an advantage in the long-term, most of these voters are not going to forget when Obama lifted the Cuban embargo and how Trump reinstated it.

[Bootes Void]

Even if Cuba's regime changes, you still have conservative-leaning migrants from Venezuela and Guatemala. While it might not have as strong of an advantage in the long-term, most of these voters are not going to forget when Obama lifted the Cuban embargo and how Trump reinstated it.

The embargo hasn't been lifted since 1960, All Trump did was put on some (mostly pointless) sanctions and took a much more hostile tone towards Cuba. That's all he did.