Did Arkansas, Missouri, and Ohio all follow the same pattern?

[Cyrusman]

These are all states that have slowly over the last 20 years or so trended dramatically to the right in that order. Did they all follow the same patterns in terms of how they trended?

[Alben Barkley]

Arkansas is a bit of a special case due to Bill Clinton. It voted way to the left of Ohio in his campaigns, so the drop-off naturally seemed dramatic. Though even still may have been less extreme at first than other Southern states Clinton won due to his legacy taking a while to erode there. Nonetheless, it’s now easily caught up to or even surpassed them all; its overall trajectory is more similar to Kentucky or Tennessee than Ohio or Missouri. Those two went from genuine swing states to solid R, and followed a similar trajectory. MO just did it a bit earlier. In some ways MO’s trajectory is actually right in-between those of AR and OH actually, in terms of both when and why.

[Chips]

There were some differences and 1992/1996 was an outlier.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yes, but they seem to be suited for different blocs than the ones they are actually part of. Arkansas is probably more similar to Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Ohio seems to have similarities with Indiana and Iowa. Missouri seems to lean more towards the Midwestern bloc.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ohio has actually shifted much faster right than Missouri did

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Arkansas and Missouri gradually trended rightward over a decade and a half. Iowa and Ohio jumped to the right pretty much in one election. The comparison would have been better if Obama had won Ohio by less than 1% in 2012 and Trump had won it by 3-4% in 2016, then the pattern would have been similar.