Double Digit Democratic Margin in Maricopa County?

[TML]

The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Maricopa County by double digits was in 1944. Back then, however, this county still voted more Republican than the state at-large, which had been the case until the mid-to-late 2010s. Given recent trends here in this county, along with trends in other demographically similar locations around the country, when do you think Maricopa will next vote Democratic by double digits?

[Sir Mohamed]

Dems will most likely win Maricopa again in 2024 and 2028, though I'm skeptical a double digits victory will happen in this decade unless there's a major 3rd candidate taking votes away from a GOP candidate. If you ask me today, I'm saying it's a real possibility next time the Dems wins a presidential election nationally after 2028.

[DCUS]

Wouldn't the Republicans split up Maricopa while they have the chance, so that conservative suburbanites don't have to deal with the urban Democrat-controlled county gov't?

[CookieDamage]

2028 is a possibility if its a good year. GOP went from double digit wins in Maricopa as recently as 2012. Otherwise 2030s for most circumstances.

[Don't Tread on Me]

2040's is the most likely answer, but Dems can carry it by that margin during the 2030's in a good election year.

[DS0816]

The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Maricopa County by double digits was in 1944. Back then, however, this county still voted more Republican than the state at-large, which had been the case until the mid-to-late 2010s. Given recent trends here in this county, along with trends in other demographically similar locations around the country, when do you think Maricopa will next vote Democratic by double digits?

Beginning in 2016, Maricopa County became more Democratic than the state of Arizona.

I would guess it to happen with the next U.S. presidential election which switches the White House from the Republican to the Democratic column.

I consider Arizona, effective with Election 2020, to have realigned to the Democrats.

(I wrote and posted on that topic here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566 .)

The next time the White House switches from Democratic to Republican, given realigning voting patterns in some states, may see a losing Democrat carry Arizona. That prevailing Republican would be the first from his/her party to win the White House without carrying Arizona. And the losing Democrat, in theory, would carry up to 20 states with his/her No. 19 or 20 best being Arizona.

The next time the White House switches from Republican to Democratic would be more opportune for that prevailing Democrat to win the U.S. Popular Vote by, say, +4 to +7, carry Arizona by an additional, say, +3 or +4 points, and carry Maricopa County with a margin which reaches +10.

[Skill and Chance]

I kind of doubt this will ever happen in the current era, at least at the presidential level. 

[THG]

Maricopa County is not Cobb or Gwinett. I highly doubt this will occur, even if it actually does get slightly bluer.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Not in 2024, but it will probably trend left relative to the state.

[หมูเด้ง]

2032 unless its a R reelection.

[MT Treasurer]

Maricopa County is not Cobb or Gwinett. I highly doubt this will occur, even if it actually does get slightly bluer.

I like how we’re told to take a more 'nuanced' approach when discussing recent R trends in FL and NV (or even South TX or IA), yet the same people admonishing us to do just that are quick to entertain double-digit D margins in Maricopa (and therefore AZ) as soon as 2028 by assuming that those shifts will just continue at the same or an even more rapid rate than they have up to now. Apparently the old axiom that only trends which benefit my party are real (and will accelerate) still holds true...

[THG]

Maricopa County is not Cobb or Gwinett. I highly doubt this will occur, even if it actually does get slightly bluer.

I like how we’re told to take a more 'nuanced' approach when discussing recent R trends in FL and NV (or even South TX or IA), yet the same people admonishing us to do just that are quick to entertain double-digit D margins in Maricopa (and therefore AZ) as soon as 2028 by assuming that those shifts will just continue at the same or an even more rapid rate than they have up to now. Apparently the old axiom that only trends which benefit my party are real (and will accelerate) still holds true...

You nailed it!

[EastOfEden]

Not likely anytime soon. I doubt it will deviate much from a range of R+1 to D+4 or so, and will exhibit "Titanium Tilt D" behaviors. You need to remember that Maricopa literally contains (practically) the entire Phoenix metro, from the urban core to the farthest reaches of suburbia. In this respect it is similar to Clark, which with the exception of the Obama elections has been stuck between D+5 and D+10 since 1992 - the county is simply so large that every political shift of the last 30 years except for the anomaly of the Obama coalition has been canceled out from somewhere else within the county.