VA-Trafalgar (R): McAuliffe +2

[Gracile]

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/va-gov-poll-0713/

https://thetrafalgargroup.org/VA-21Gen-Gov-Poll-Report.pdf

Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 45%
Third Parties 4%

Conducted 7/8-7/10
1104 LVs
MoE 2.9%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This gonna remain close

[President Johnson]

Looks about right in one category, Youngin could get 45% of the vote. T-Mac will finish in the 52-55% range. No way it's within two points. But it's an internal, so...

[NewYorkExpress]

I could see the race being within two points right now. All those undecideds are going to go to McAuliffe, though.

Likely D

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Anyone notice that Trafalgar has upgraded to a A rating on 538..

Nate Cohn in shambles. lmao

[GALeftist]

> Trafalgar

[Cyrusman]

Anyone notice that Trafalgar has upgraded to a A rating on 538..

Nate Cohn in shambles. lmao

Haha from C- to A in less than a year

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just a quick reminder that Traf underestimated Northam by 8 points in 2017.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a quick reminder that Traf underestimated Northam by 8 points in 2017.

Biden Approvals aren't 60% anymore they're 52/48 a right where they were on Election night, but BlT Mac is favored but a 304 map not 375 map is probable

This is just a reminder new close numbers in blue states, don't expect a landslide in 2022

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

With Trafalgar you add 5 points to the Democrat, they are complete biased trash like Rasmussen.

[Vosem]

Extremely narrow range here -- all polls of this race have shown an outcome between McAuliffe+2 and McAuliffe+4.

Definitely inclined to believe that's the current state of play. I think it would be a relatively good performance for Democrats, too.

[Chips]

This could certainly be a very close race but I'm predicting McAuliffe+6.

[Devils30]

I'm not giving Trafalgar the benefit of the doubt because they have some good hits like 2018 FL Gov, 2020 FL President. They have an extensive history of pretty bad misses like 2018 GA Gov where they had Kemp by 12. Also had Trump +2 in PA, +5 in GA, +1 in NV, +3 AZ and +2 MI.

Also had Northam winning by 1 in 2017.

VA is not a state where polls have been a problem for Dems. This issue is really more of a midwestern one (along with midwestern transplant parts of FL). Unskewing polls in VA, GA, AZ might be a mistake.

[Jackson Lee]

This could certainly be a very close race but I'm predicting McAuliffe+6.

Just like my thoughts exactly, but I’ll go with Terry by 4.

51-47.

Terry will do well here in Northern Virginia, Trumpkin down south. It’s a very polarizing climate, with referendums on both Biden and Trump, but McAuliffe still pulls through.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm going to stick with my McAuliffe+6 prediction.