Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14 (user search)
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« on: July 15, 2021, 01:04:08 AM »
« edited: July 15, 2021, 01:09:48 AM by Lustration2021 »

Minor updates on the situation in PBA and CABA.

In PBA Espert, Cynthia Hotton and José Gómez Centurión will run separately. In CABA Milei will run independently endorsed by both Espert and Centurión while López Murphy's slate for the JxC primary has been revealed and it has...a bunch of Radicals. Bit of a weird choice if the goal is to attract Bullrich supporting hawks or libertarians but I guess we'll see how it pays off.

Full slates will be revealed in a week, 07/24. There's also some ambiguity about which parties are legally qualified to run candidates that'll be resolved in legal cases over the next few months.

On that note there was some drama where the CABA branch of UCeDé was taken over by a city government employee who tried to endorse JxC (specifically López Murphy) and thereby deprive Milei of the endorsement of a "national party" that you need to run in the elections. He then held an official party meeting in a tiny room and prevented actual members from entering. Unfortunately for him the tiny meeting didn't meet quorum and control of the party was legally transferred out of his hands. A very strange situation
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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2021, 06:13:14 AM »
« Edited: July 25, 2021, 06:26:19 AM by Lustration2021 »

Lists have been presented. There are a ton of regional parties that I can't be bothered to explain so for simplicity I've tried to roughly colour code based on ostensible ideology. These are:

Teal: Frente de Todos, the center-left Peronist party of current president Alberto Fernández.

Pink: Kirchnerist ie. Peronist and leftist, associated with the former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (typically referred to by her initials, CFK). Typically part of the FdT lists except where noted otherwise.

Green: Dissident/independent Peronists, ranging anywhere from center left to center right. Previously ran nationally as "Federal Peronists" but at this point have been reduced to various disconnected lists, most notably Florencio Randazzo running in PBA. Still powerful in several provinces though.

Maroon: Frente de Izquierda Unidad or FIT, the united front of socialists. Fairly well established in several provinces and could benefit from enough protest votes to win a few seats. Like far left fronts across the world, notoriously prone to pointless splitting over doctrinal differences, personality conflicts and sheer ego.

Brown: Socialist splitters from the aforementioned front. Going into more detail would require more colours than I can use but suffice to say that they almost certainly won't actually win any seats but they could well cost FIT seats.

Orange: Juntos, the primary opposition coalition and party of former president Mauricio Macri. Mostly defined by being anti-Peronist (except the Republican Peronists, lol). Formerly known as Juntos por el Cambio but they've dropped the change. Three largest constituent parties are:

Yellow: Propuesta Republicana or PRO, the center to center-right party of Macri. Contains both hardline anti-government right wingers like former security minister Patricia Bullrich as well as moderates like CABA Chief Larreta. At the moment the latter seems to be in ascendance and has had more control over list formation. Relatively new.

Red: Unión Cívica Radical or UCR, the center to left party composing the traditional opposition to Peronism across the country. Has a very strong base of support (much like the Peronists). Old as dirt.

Beige: Coalición Cívica or CC, the centrist party created by dissatisfied ex-UCR members. Much newer than UCR but older than PRO.

Purple: Partido Libertario, Pibes Libertarios, Avanza Libertad, Frente de la Libertad and various other vehicles cobbled together around right libertarians, most notably JL Espert and Javier Milei. Due to their very recent formation they weren't able to get a national list but like the Federal Peronists will put up independent lists in several of the larger provinces.

Navy: Classical liberals such as the new party of López Murphy, Republicanos Unidos, as well as the husk of UCeDe. In some provinces they run with or within JxC primaries, in others they support other independent lists.

Black: NOS and other nationalist right parties, most notably including the former presidential candidate Juan José Gómez Centurión.

Lime Green: Evangelicals, religious right wingers and social conservative fronts like Amalia Granata's "Unite por la Familia y la Vida" in Santa Fe (confusingly one of many "UNITE/Unite"s) or of Cynthia Hotton in PBA.

Blue: Conservative old right parties and their successors like Partido Autonomista (PA) and Partido Demócrata (PD). Once the dominant parties of Argentine politics, now reduced to a few provinces of influence where they're choosing whether to stick with Juntos, to strike out either alone or to ally with the libertarians and risk it all for a chance at newfound relevance. Older than dirt.

I'll start with CABA and post the rest later (originally I was going to include several provinces but the post got too long)

In CABA there are a total of eight contenders consisting of five coalitions and three lone parties. With 13 seats up for grabs the maximum threshold to win a seat is about 7.7%, though with eliminations it's actually slightly less than that unless every vote goes to a party over the threshold.  Juntos will almost certainly win overwhelmingly and FdT will almost certainly get second place but thanks to proportional seat distribution there's plenty riding on the line. In the likely order they'll end up, they are:

JxC

The main opposition to the Federal government, consisting of two three separate lists:

I - Juntos

1. María Eugenia Vidal
2. Martín Tetaz (UCR)
3. Paula Oliveto (CC)
4. Fernando Iglesias (Pro)
5. Carla Carrizo (UCR)
6. Fernando Sánchez (CC)
7. Sabrina Ajmechet
8. Pablo Walter


The primary list, with a clear priority given to doves and Larreta allies (Ajmechet and Walter are both hawks). Almost certain to win, but the question is how much they win both the PASO and actual election by.

II - Republicanos Unidos

1. Ricardo López Murphy
2. Sandra Pitta
3. Gustavo Lázzari
4. María Eugenia Talerico
5. Franco Rinaldi
6. Gabriela Malerba
7. Jorge Kogan
8. Constanza Mazzina


The secondary list designed to reduce leaking liberal, conservative and hawkish votes to Milei. However most of the list other than López Murphy himself isn't particularly coherent ideologically. On the one hand if they don't make the threshold for the PASO then many of those votes might not show up for Vidal in the general, but on the other it would be embarrassing if Vidal was forced into anything approaching a close race when Macri and Bullrich bowed out for her.

III - Adelante Ciudad

1. Adolfo Rubinstein
2. Mónica Marquina
3. Facundo Suárez Lastra
4. Ana Lía Etchegaray
5. Martín Scotto
6. Ivana González
7. Galo Soler Illia


A list slapped together at the literal last minute (even more than RU) by various dissatisfied Radicals. At least they're internally consistent, but how well they'll do in the PASO is hard to say.

After the primaries, JxC will need at least 50% of the vote and preferably over 60% to be satisfied, though a strong libertarian performance changes the math a little. If the final results are even close in CABA then it's a very bad night for Juntos.

Frente de Todos

1. Leandro Santoro
2. Gisela Marziotta
3. Carlos Heller
4. Lorena Pokoik
5. Matías Tombolini
6. Cecilia Barros


The sole list of the government (well, opposition in CABA), led by notable legislator and Kirchnerist Leandro Santoro. They won't win unless Juntos is absolutely collapsing and they won't get worse than 2nd unless they absolutely collapse. They'd be very happy to get over 35% and very unhappy to get under 25%, but FdT has a fairly reliable base that should turn out unless the national situation gets really bad and Santoro is reasonably popular among that base.

La Libertad Avanza

1. Javier Milei
2. Victoria Villarroel
3. Nicolás Emma (PL)
4. María Fernanda Araujo (NOS)
5. Gustavo Durini (PL)
6. Alicia Chediak (PL)
7. Guillermo Mac Loughlin (PD)
8. Clara Malbrán (PD)

Milei managed to incorporate most of the notable right wingers of CABA into his front and has the formal endorsements of both Centurión and Hotton. His 2nd, Victoria Villaroel, is an activist for survivors of the Montonero bombings in the 1970s. He also stands to benefit from the relatively weak right wing offerings from JxC. Could plausibly get anywhere from 0 to 2 seats.

FITU (Frente de Izquierda Unidad)

I. PTS

1. Myriam Bregman
2. Alejandrina Barry
3. Mercedes Trimarchi

II. MST

1. Celeste Fierro


The "united left", which wasn't far from gaining a deputy in CABA in 2017 and would be in a good position to get one this time around. Emphasis on would, because somehow the "united socialists" of CABA have ended up split into four separate fronts (and that's with two separate lists in the FITU PASO, more than are running for FdT), with the most notable "splitter" being Luis Zamora and his "Autodeterminación y Libertad" party. As a result, unless the left has a dramatic surge they'll probably miss the cutoff, but it isn't impossible that Bregman (or possibly Zamora) manage to get through.
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2021, 04:53:35 PM »

Glad to see new high quality posts since the thread came back to life. Since PBA has already been covered I'll move onto the only province to give even less support to FdT than CABA, Córdoba. One of the larger and more politically interesting provinces (in more ways than one), while unfortunately I'm lacking some of the nittier details I'll try to cover the basic details as broadly as I can.

Córdoba has 9 seats up for grabs, meaning the maximum possible threshold to win a seat is just over 11%, though with the number of minor parties that probably won't hit the threshold it could end up being a fair bit lower than that. It also arguably has the wackiest coalitions, but I'll get to that in a bit. While Córdoba overwhelmingly favours JxC in the national legislature, the statewide legislature is dominated by the Federal Peronist party Hacemos Por Córdoba (HxC) of governor Juan Schiaretti. While HxC is also putting forward candidates, in federal elections many of their members run with the JxC list. Anyway, the contenders are, again descending order of likelihood to win seats (prioritizing past performance to avoid my personal biases),

Juntos por el Cambio

The dominant coalition with 11 of 18 members from Córdoba will be running four separate lists. These are:

I. Juntos Por Córdoba

1. Gustavo Santos (UCR)
2. Soledad Carrizo (UCR)
3. Ramón Javier Mestre (UCR)

4. Mariana Ispizua
5. Henry Blas Leis
6. Yanina Moreno Zamanillo
7. Gregorio Hernández Maqueda
8. Yanina Vargas
9. Juan Carlos Gait


II. Cambiando Juntos

Rodrigo de Loredo (UCR)
Laura Rodríguez Machado (PRO)
Héctor Baldassi (PRO)

Gabriela Brower de Koning
Oscar Agost Carreño
Cecilia Roffe
José Bría
Beatriz Arias
César Adbala


III. Alfonsinismo Cordobés

1. Dante Rossi (UCR)
2. Viviana Pomiglio (UCR)
3. Roberto Lucas (UCR)
4. Liliana Pierina Avidano (UCR)
5. Javier Varetto (UCR)
6. Yanina del Valle Pérez (UCR)
7. Sebastián Amadeo Peralta (UCR)
8. Camila Bossio (UCR)
9. Jorge Aguirre (UCR)


IV. Sumar. Vamos Córdoba

1. Laura Sesma (CP)
2. Marco Giraudo
3. Alicia García de Solavagione
4. Daniel Gattás
5. Fiona Cavazzón

6. Adrián “Pepa” Cassati
7. Mónica Loayza
8. Leandro Martínez
9. Yanina Zanella


Of the four lists, the first is the official one, the second has enough notables to have a good chance at making the cut, the third is composed of Alfonsinists and deserve a separate explanation but are basically leftist Radicals and neither they nor the fourth list (whose reason for existence I can't discern) have much chance of making the cut. Much like CABA, they'll be unhappy with anything less than 50%, and for a victory they want something closer to 60%.

Frente de Todos

1.Martín Gill
2.Olga Riutort
3. Pablo Carro
4. Ilda Bustos
5. Natalio Graglia
6. Francisca Matoni
7. Gastón Mazzalay
8. Graciela Brarda
9. Gastón Tomatis


The second largest party in terms of results, though the gap between them and HxC for 2nd is far closer than the enormous gulf separating them from 1st. In a year where the government was enormously popular they might be able to close that gulf but this is not that year, so I wouldn't be surprised if HxC overtakes them considering the difference in popularity between the president and governor. On the plus side, they've always done terribly in Córdoba they've only got 1 deputy at rise. In theory they're united under a single list but a group of dissidents broke off to form their own list with the Alliance of Misfit Parties, Unión Popular Vecinal (more on them later).

Hacemos por Córdoba

1. Natalia de la Sota
2. Ignacio García Aresca
3. Claudia Márquez
4. Sergio Busso
5. Claudia Martínez
6. Gustavo Brendán
7. Cristina Vidal
8. Fabio Guaschino
9.Rosalía Cáceres


The local Federal Peronist party of governor Schiaretti, occupying a place somewhere between both major parties but typically aligning more with JxC on issues not related to Peron. As mentioned above, dominant in local elections but not so dominant in federal elections, though they managed a decent 2nd in 2017. It isn't entirely clear whether the ongoing anti-establishmentarian sentiment will help them by hurting the major parties in their favour or hurt them by boosting smaller parties at their expense.

Frente de Izquierda y de Trabajadores-Unidad

I. PTS

1. Liliana Olivero
2. Santiago Benítez
3. Noel Argarañaz
4. Federico Wagner
5. Noelia Agüero
6. Noé Silbestein
7. Candela Guzmán
8. Ernesto Arce
9. Marcela Martín

II. MST

1. Luciana Echevarría
2. Gastón Vacchiani
3. Virginia Caldera Marsengo
4. Néstor Gea
5. Rocío Vieyra
6. Ítalo Ocaño
7. Franca Cóndori Bazán
8. Pedro Garbi
9. Graciela Taborda

III. PO

1. Soledad Díaz
2. Eduardo Salas
3. Anabel Allochis
4. Jorge Navarro
5. Silvina Vivas
6. Juan Gabriel Ponce
7. Norma Peñaloza
8. Alejandro Roqueiro
9. Daiana Spindola


The united left of Córdoba is far more united than most in the country, which is to say they've only got one splitting party running separately, MAS (and maybe Libres del Sur) while the three main leftist parties, MST, FTS and PO, are running separate internal lists. Córdoba hasn't been a particularly strong province for the left (on a good day their combined lists total 5-6% and on a bad day it's half that) but they conceivably could sneak a deputy through if the stars align.

Encuentro Vecinal Córdoba

1. Aurelio García Elorrio
2. María Amelia Moscoso
3. Gerardo Grosso
4. Paula Ponte
5. Ricky Condori
6. Cande Orellana
7. Agustín Anglada
8. Claudia Argüello
9. Esteban Ancarani


The personal vehicle of local activist Aurelio García Elorrio, a party which takes prioritizing pro-life issues to its logical conclusion, focusing not just on anti-abortion laws or activism but on shelters for pregnant women, promotion of public health and other related issues. Purely by past performance they're the most likely new party besides FIT to make it across the threshold but that isn't particularly likely even at the best of times (in past elections they get around 3-4%) and it doesn't help that NOS chose to run a list with the libertarians rather than with EVC as they did last time around. On that note,

Unión Popular Vecinal

I. Vivienda y Trabajo

1. César Ariel Rodríguez
2. Virginia del Carmen López
3. Héctor Argüello
4. María Alicia Ceballo
5. Héctor Carlos Prieto
6. Victoria Susana Ferreyra
7. Martín Alberto Luján
8. Norma Noemí Heredia
9. Jorge Gonzalo Pedernera


II. Libertarios y NOS

1. Jorge Scala (NOS)
2. Daniela Welner
3. Abelardo Losano
4. María Laura Cesano
5. Sergio Rubén Díaz
6. Katerine Charlotte Carnaghi
7. Germán Pablo Cassinerio
8. María Eugenia Skiliarow
9. Mario Enrique Lamberghini

III. Fraternidad

1. Víctor Taborda
2. Silvia Guzmán
3. Gonzalo Cumplido
4. Natalia de Lourdes Moyano
5. Marcelo Omar Núñez
6. Stella Maris Farias
7. Víctor Lagoria
8. Nuncia Romina Liguori
9. Paulo Ferlauto


IV. Esencia Peronista Salud

1. Miguel Martínez
2. Gloria Irahola Poppe
3. Jorge Isidro Domínguez
4. María Elena Romano
5. Marcelo Berrotaran
6. Yanina Robles
7. Rafael Alejandro Luna
8. Sara Lidia Domínguez
9. Cristian Nahuel Martínez


V. Alianza Federal Lista del Pueblo

1. Ariel Luque
2. Nélida Edith Yermir
3. Pedro Guillermo Alancay
4. Nirley Graciela Ocampo
5. Alejandro Luis Dughetti
6. Marcela Anahí Vallejos
7. Adrián Díaz
8. Melina Durban
9. Sergio Walter Soria


VI. La Libertad Avanza

1. Rubén Peteta
2. María Cristina Lagger
(can't find the rest of their list but they have literally zero chance of making it regardless so whatever)


VII.

1. César Ariel Rodríguez
2. Virginia del Carmen López
3. Héctor Argüello
4. María Alicia Ceballo
5. Héctor Carlos Prieto
6. Victoria Susana Ferreyra
7. Martín Alberto Luján
8. Norma Noemí Heredia
9. Jorge Gonzalo Pedernera


In what may be the single most mercenary move I've ever seen a party pull, the former Federal Peronist Unión Popular Federal decided to allow literally anyone that wasn't able to pull together a party (and to be fair, Argentine bureaucracy is such that forming a party is extremely tedious even if you meet the requirements) to join and run an independent list in the PASO. As a result, the party has SEVEN, yes SEVEN lists covering the entire Argentine political spectrum, featuring an anti-Peronist right list of NOS and libertarians, Kirchnerist left Peronists, two lists of Federal Peronists, a list of dissident Peronists from PJ, a list of Alfonsinists, and a list of classical liberals.

Just about any result of this insane PASO will produce a wacky and discordant final list. I have no idea how well they'll do but it would be hilarious if they somehow managed to get through a Mystery Deputy. It raises interesting questions around strategic voting, though; does the Kirchnerist vote for the final list if his choice is first but the second candidate is from NOS? Good luck as a pollster trying to figure out how to word questions when this monstrosity of a front exists.

Also, Partido Demócrata is running an independent list. Not like they're likely to win anything but they're the only ones I didn't bring up.
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2021, 04:40:01 PM »

Please could somebody explain how the PASO works?  Like will the highest scoring internal list become that alliance's formal list in the general election or would the final list be a mixture of internal lists?

Yes

It's up to each individual Coalition in each individual province, and you also have to take into account the mandatory gender parity law, which means that it's a complete mess

Using Corrientes as an example:
ECO+Vamos Corrientes (JxC)
  for Diputados: D'Hondt system with no minimum threshold
  for Senators: full-list system, ie winner takes all
FDT D'Hondt for all posts, with a 5% threshold
Vamos D'Hondt for all posts with no threshold


Is the process how the final list will determined on the ballot (ie what is the threshold) or the voters have to find out by themselves?

I tried reading an article explaining how JxC's PASO in PBA will impact the list and it was ludicrously complex. The only things I can say for sure is that whoever gets the most votes gets the top slot, every other slot has to be filled by a woman and there's a threshold under which an internal group won't make it onto the final list at all, typically between 10% and 30% of the list's total votes or at least 1.5% of the total votes cast.

Anyway, a mini-report on the state of the polls. While many Argentines consider the polls to be totally useless, I'd argue that they still provide useful information. On average, while they were definitely off they still generally got the order right, and I think the errors they made were fairly predictable ones. In no particular order,

* Fernández was underrated while Lavagna was overrated. Polarization ended up bringing the swing Peronists onto Fernández's side, in part because he did a fairly good job of portraying himself as a moderate against the terrible economy brought about by Macri.

* Macri did worse than his poll numbers would indicate. I feel like this was the result of a similar problem to American polls: Macri's base of upper middle class voters were way more likely to answer pollsters than Fernández's younger and poorer voters.

* Espert was overestimated, but (with the exception of a lone 11.5% poll) not by as much or as consistently as people seem to think. Most estimated his support in the 2-6% range and he ended up with 2.6%, so its safe to say most of that soft support went to Macri and compensated slightly for his overpolled base.

So with that established, lets look at the current state of the polls in PBA and CABA. There are also national polls but I think they've pretty questionable for a legislative election where most of the minor lists being polled aren't even running nationally and the threshold for winning a deputy varies wildly.

So for CABA we've got:









Vidal's support is surprisingly low, but in theory most of the hawks that aren't supporting her right now should end up coming back after the PASO. Santoro is polling surprisingly high, but it isn't clear whether that's just the enthusiasm gap (since FdT is united and there aren't any dissident Peronists in CABA this time around) or if it indicates something more serious. Milei's support is all over the place (more on that later) but his floor seems to be around 5% and his ceiling is unclear but it's probably around 15%. The safest assumption to make is that most undecided voters will eventually cast a begrudging vote for Vidal unless something big happens. Santoro would still be very happy with 30% but it'll very likely end up lower than that.

For PBA:











In PBA we have the exact opposite, with JxC often being polled quite high compared to FdT, though there's a huge amount of variation. Where the undecideds in CABA will probably go back to JxC in the end, the undecided voters of PBA seem more likely to fall behind the leading Peronist force. Of course Randazzo will qualify easily even if he only wins the votes of those who turned out for Lavagna back in 2019, but whether that'll earn him 3rd or 4th in the province remains in question. Espert's polling numbers fluctuate wildly, albeit not to the extent that Milei's do.

On that note, AL seems basically impossible to poll because its bases of support are the least consistent in terms of turnout. The first is voters under 30, who compose over 60% of their total base of support and aren't known for their reliable turnout. The second is those who are disenchanted with the two major fronts, or those who are disenchanted by politics entirely. How many such people would actually turn out to vote is in question, so it isn't surprising that Espert and Milei have such wildly varying polling numbers.
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2021, 06:51:32 PM »

There's been an ongoing scandal which I'm really not in the know enough to get to deep on, but the original story was that Fernández was having illegal gatherings against Argentina's very strict COVID lockdown policies. This somehow evolved into "Fernández is inviting women to the Pink House to cheat on his wife" to "Fernández is turning Casa Rosada into a brothel". The first claim was verifiably true but the second is unclear and the third is pure exaggeration so FdT managed to turn it into a fight about feminism, far more comfortable ground than a fight about corruption and double standards.

On the flipside, Vidal has been having a tough time credibly establishing herself as a porteña after having abandoned the province she formerly governed apparently out of pure political calculation. That's nothing new, but the prospects of UCR rebel Facundo Manes are looking up, something that's very troublesome for Larreta and the rest of JxC leadership; even an overperformance screws up their list and leaves key candidates beyond any realistic prospect of getting through the general.

In other news, Milei launched his campaign in Palermo and several thousand people materialized out of Twitter. The turnout seems to have boosted his credibility enough to face attacks from the JxC camp for being too friendly to Peronists and even from President Fernández himself. The ongoing joke is that most of the crowd can't actually vote but since the voting age was lowered to 16 that actually might not be a problem. When Cristina did that back in 2012 I can't imagine she considered that it would end up helping Milei cross the threshold. Today's gerrymander is tomorrow's dummymander.

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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2021, 08:39:44 PM »

In the latest example of AF dropping the ball, he was caught holding a birthday party that violated the restrictions and the great feminist president of Argentina responded by...blaming his wife

Of course he had to backtrack after that but he's a master of shooting himself in the foot
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2021, 11:30:13 PM »

There were provincial elections in Salta, which were won by the incumbent independent Peronist coalition of Unidos por Salta and Si - Salta Independiente.

JxC ran two separate lists and did okay (17.5% for the main list and a little over 6% for the UCR splinter); FdT did quite badly, only getting 9.2% while a separate Kirchnerist list pulled about 5%. Turnout was also low, and there were an unusually high number of blank votes and spoiled ballots.



In national news, President Fernández's birthday scandal has evolved as more pictures came out showing him and his cabinet (most flagrantly Massa) flagrantly ignoring their own rules of social distancing, restricting numbers at social gatherings and mask wearing. The image of both the President and the government has been hit hard; disapproval hit a record high of 70.8%.



Unfortunately for JxC, their governor-swap decision seems to have reduced their ability to take advantage, at least in PBA and CABA. Santilli and Vidal haven't been very popular and have lost ground to what were supposed to be sacrificial candidacies, those of Manes and Lopez Murphy respectively.

FIT held a youth event. It had okay turnout. The continuing decline in the image of Fernández probably helps them in picking up disgruntled Kirchnerists. On the other hand, they've been going very hard against Milei, calling him literally Hitler Videla and such. Probably because they're worried he's taking their place as the go-to protest vote.

On that note, Milei went to Mataderos, one of the working class neighbourhoods in southern CABA most favourable to FdT and received a pretty good reception.



 The past few scandals probably help him more than anyone else in CABA, at least so long as his name is synonymous with anti-politics. Lopez Murphy has also gained thanks to Vidal's weakness, though he hasn't done as much in the way of direct campaigning.

Finally, a breakdown of the polling trends since the campaign started:

In CABA, Vidal and Santoro both falling fast as Lopez Murphy, Milei, blank votes and both the united and not so united Left are all on the upswing. Rubinstein isn't going anywhere though.

In PBA, similarly, VTP and Santilli are both falling to the benefit of the smaller parties and especially UCR rebel Manes. Randazzo and Espert seem to both be rising, though who leads seems to depend entirely on the pollster.

In Córdoba JxC is holding steady (De Loredo narrowly leads Santos with a little over 20% each and an additional 2-4% shared by the minor lists), HpC seems to be doing well and FdT is closer to losing its seat than winning another.

In Mendoza JxC has a strong lead of around 50% total while FdT, Vamos Mendocinos! and Partido Federal are all narrowly separated with 10-14% each. Once again the forces of Oficialismo are closer to losing their deputy than making any gains.

All in all, while the losses in Buenos Aires are somewhat limited FdT is in big trouble if it has unexpected losses in the other provinces. I'd guess in most cases the beneficiaries would either be local Federal Peronists or the FIT
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2021, 08:59:03 PM »
« Edited: September 11, 2021, 09:14:52 PM by Ⓐnarchy in the USSR! »

So I spent about an hour writing a detailed post about the possibilities for the PASO tomorrow is it got wiped. So I'll just give a rough estimation:

CABA

Vidal: At least 35% or she's in big trouble. Over 45% and she rests easy. Her campaign wasn't great and to call some moments "cringy" would be an understatement but compared to the alternatives it's not even worth mentioning. I'd guess a result in the high 30s

López Murphy: Around 10% and he, Vidal and the rest of JxC rest easy. Lower is a problem for both since he won't get on the list, higher is a problem because the randos on his list (including a guy who explicitly said he was never asked to run and demanded to be removed) would start to displace Larreta's carefully negotiated coalition of local bigshots. Could potentially vary a lot since his theoretical support base is high but his campaign was terrible

Santoro: Anything over 20% is fine and wins the same 3 seats Todos won in 2017. 26% would put them up one and is my best guess, but they could be anywhere from 20 if dislike of the national government hits them hard and tanks turnout to the mid 30s if Larreta takes the blame and turnout for everyone except the dedicated Peronists is low (FdT easily have the best organization and turnout after all).

Milei: Had pretty good turnout at events but that doesn't necessarily mean lots of votes. Also picked a fight with every politician except Gómez Centurión, every media outlet except LN and the band La Renga while he was at it. Seems to be polling well but as we've seen from Espert, polls don't always translate to reality in Argentina. Still, his goal is just the 7% needed to safely win a deputy spot and that much seems pretty likely even if his support is composed of kids who might not turn out at all.

The Left: Grouped together for convenience. In 2017 won 10% in total, but since it was split 6% FIT to 4% Zamora neither won a seat. Who will win this time? I don't know, but my best guess is Myriam Bregman. On the one hand, the total left vote has been mostly on the downtrend since the heydey of 2001-03 Bushism but on the other FIT picked up a few extra votes in some of the recent local elections when turnout crashed so its possible they'll do a little better this time too. My guess is the total vote in the FIT primary is around 6% and Zamora gets 1-3% but who knows

I've paid less attention to PBA but I expect Todos to do worse than they did in 2017, when they won 18 of 35 seats, even if the vote they get is slightly more efficient seatwise since they're united. They've got a solid core of at least 30% but less than 45% would still be a loss. However, it remains to be seen whether JxC actually stands to benefit; Santilli wants at least 25%, Manes wants at least 10% and so long as that difference doesn't change too much the final list should be somewhat presentable with enough of a base of support to match their 2017 result.

Perhaps this is a bold prediction but I think FdT's voters in PBA will disproportionately (compared to 2017 or 2019 anyway) either not vote or vote for Randazzo. Some think the swing against Macri was purely the result of Peronists uniting but I'd argue the bad economic conditions brought them out, whereas this time the inflation and unemployment will cause them to either not turn out or split. And that's saying a lot because Randazzo is competing with LM for the worst campaign; at one point he thought he'd demonstrate his trustworthiness by calling his own mom. Still, just like how López Murphy will get votes by being the default anti-Peronist liberal/hawk vote in JxC he'll pick up Peronists who are angry but still want to cast a ballot. So my baseline estimate is ~46% VTP, which would be a loss but not a terrible one. Could be better if Peronists are as loyal as people seem to think, could be worse (much worse) if they aren't.

As a result I'd guess he'll do better than Espert, who should at least manage the 3% necessary to cross the threshold but how much better than that is hard to say. FIT won 2 seats with just over 5% last time and I'd imagine they'll get a similar result this time. There's also an outside chance that either Gómez Centurión or Hotton approach the threshold. If either is close then they might make it through the general with some of the votes of the other, though if they both get 1.5-2% they might just both fail instead.

Next are the provinces I paid some attention to.

Córdoba

Todos was hoping to make gains which are possible but somewhat unlikely. Right now they're probably going to get in the 10-15% range and they need a bit higher than that for gains. The local Peronists of Governor Schiaretti seem to have the most momentum of anyone, which is to say they might go from 3 seats to 4. JxC seems reasonably strong but they're probably more likely than either of the other two to drop enough to lose a seat. HvC and FIT might do slightly better than 2017 but still not anywhere near winning a seat ie. ~5%. Also of the three minor parties vying for Milei's endorsement the winner was Roque Fernández's Partido Demócrata. Will that change anything? I doubt it, but if they do any better than 1-2% that's the reason.

Mendoza

Another province the government was hoping to make gains in but in this case Juntos's 3 seats are rock solid and it seems unlikely that Todos will get enough of the vote to win the 2 seats pro-government forces won in 2017. They'll likely lose one of those seats either to JxC or one of the smaller local parties like the Federal Party or Vamos! Mendocinos. If they do really bad they could lose both but they'll probably avoid that humiliation.

Finally, I didn't keep up with Chaco or Entre Ríos but they're the top targets for FdT to make pickups; going from 2-2 and 3-2 to 1-3 and 2-3/1-4 respectively. If they can't do well here then it's just generally a bad sign for the government overall since some of their other targets (especially Mendoza and PBA) look less likely at the moment.

But anything could happen and the polls could be meaningless so who knows.
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2021, 02:21:20 PM »
« Edited: September 12, 2021, 02:27:28 PM by Ⓐnarchy in the USSR! »

Turnout is lower than 2019 so far. Not a lot to report but a funny story:



Voter: "and Milei, where is Milei's ballot, they are committing fraud"

Poll worker: "That's in Buenos Aires idiot, you can't vote for him in Rosario (Sante Fe province)"
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2021, 05:46:31 PM »

Apparently official results could come early at 9PM

TN says JxC is leading by 20 in capital, Todos ahead by 8 in BA province, 67% turnout.

If accurate then FdT is losing seats in the province. They led by 11 in 2017 and that was during a strong year for JxC so there were less third party votes.

In CABA it's less clear. 30 Santoro 35 Vidal 15 LM would be a bad sign for JxC but 20 30 10 would be good. The margin matters less than Santoro's vote share since there will be more movement from the anti-Peronist candidates between now and the general.

In both cases if the smaller parties are doing really well (again, assuming that margin is accurate) then it hurts FdT more. In the province 38-46 would be bad for the government but not that bad whereas 33-41 would be downright terrible. All of the smaller parties (except sometimes the Left and Randazzo, sort of) are hostile to the governing coalition so unless a huge number of parties got 2% and fell under the threshold a loss for both major parties would be worse for the government.
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2021, 07:26:34 PM »
« Edited: September 12, 2021, 07:46:16 PM by Ⓐnarchy in the USSR! »

No official results but reports that Milei got 11%. A big result for him especially since he's likely to gain votes in the general and he doesn't need much more to win a second seat pulling Vicky Villaruel over the finish line too. Also a bad sign for Santoro assuming that 20% lead for JxC is true.

EDIT: Supposedly FdT is getting crushed in the early count for PBA:



Not sure if it's accurate or not but it'd be a downright horrific result for the government. Of course this could just be the interior vote in which case it's merely very bad since the suburbs will surely give the VTP some room to breathe.

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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2021, 08:01:34 PM »
« Edited: September 12, 2021, 08:22:54 PM by Ⓐnarchy in the USSR! »

Haven't checked everything but Chaco is 92% counted and it's 44% JxC to 36% FdT. Entre Rios is 97% counted at 52% JxC 29.5% FdT

This basically looks like a catastrophically bad election for the government, worse than 2017 in most ways. There are a few bright spots like gains in La Rioja but otherwise they're set to lose a ton in the general. They're probably panicking in the Pink House right now

EDIT: In CABA at 86% counted the results are:

JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO: 48%

JUNTOS PODEMOS MÁS: 68% (~33% total)

REPUBLICANOS: 23% (~11% total)

ADELANTE CIUDAD: 8% (~4% total)

FRENTE DE TODOS: 25%

LA LIBERTAD AVANZA: 14%

FRENTE DE IZQUIERDA Y DE TRABAJADORES - UNIDAD: 6% (Bregman crushed the internal so I won't bother with the details)

AUTODETERMINACIÓN Y LIBERTAD: 3%

Unless the last bit to be counted is dramatically different everything fell within expectations except for a slight overperformance from the various Leftists and a significant overperformance from Milei. If the former aren't stymied by the comical degree of factionalism among the minor left wing parties then they should have an easy path to a seat for Bregman in the city.

I underestimated Milei but intentionally, because I try to always go against my own biases. But with this result he's clearly the story of the night with 2 seats in hand. It's also notable that his support, unlike Espert's, isn't just from upper middle class Juntos splitters but from a cross section of all Argentine society. He won 15% in Villa 31 of all places so he's clearly struck something where Espert failed.
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2021, 08:57:06 PM »

In national news, President Fernández's birthday scandal has evolved as more pictures came out showing him and his cabinet (most flagrantly Massa) flagrantly ignoring their own rules of social distancing, restricting numbers at social gatherings and mask wearing. The image of both the President and the government has been hit hard; disapproval hit a record high of 70.8%.
The scandal certainy damaged his image, but not "70% disaproval" kind of damage, not even Macri has those numbers (and he's far and away the most unpopular argentine politician). A good reminder of how bad polling is in this country.

Well this sure looks like a 70% disapproval sort of election. FdT couldn't even win a majority in Formosa of all places.

Granted it probably had more to do with the inflation and unemployment then that stupid picture but that was really just the cherry on top.

Buenos Aires (70.32% of the votes counted)

Juntos 38.32%
  - Es Juntos (Santilli) 59.35%
  - Dar el paso (Manes) 40.64%
 A good result for the main opposition alliance, with a stronger performance by Manes than what anyone was expecting

Todos 33.52%
 Yeah, this was a bad election for the kirchnerista list, were they were expecting a 5% victory

FIT 5.14%

Avanza Libertad 4.84%
Espert's calm personality clearly got a weaker result than the more chaotic and boisterous Milei, but still a pretty good result for the libertarians, and a lot better than what they got 2 years ago

Vamos con Vos 3.7%
A much weaker result than what Randazzo, or Lavagna's candidate, got in previous elections, certainly weakened by his gaffes and  weird ads in recent weeks

+Valores 1.44%
Hotton got the most votes out of the many ultra conservative lists, she may get above the 1.5% Paso threshold, but thats about it


Randazzo's campaign was so bad that it earned him negative voters. Just saying "I'm a Peronist but I hate the government, vote for me!" would have been enough to pick up angry Todos voters but its like Fernández had a bug in his brain making him campaign like a crazy person.

Espert did better than last time but I'd sure hope he'd do better in a proportional election where strategic voting is less relevant and his goal is 3% as opposed to victory. He's still safely past qualification, Piparo probably has better than even odds thanks to migration from the other right wing alternatives and if he's lucky he might even be able to get a third. But I'm almost certain Milei would have done better, maybe not as well as in CABA but clearly passion and radicalism beat moderation in breaking through with the poor and working class.
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2021, 09:13:24 PM »

A map of the election, and it's absolutely brutal for the government. JxC won in places Macri couldn't at his most popular. This just might be a total political realignment

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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2021, 11:37:16 PM »
« Edited: September 12, 2021, 11:40:29 PM by Ⓐnarchy in the USSR! »

So just briefly looking at the geography of the CABA. (here's the source if you want to see for yourself)

 Vidal easily won all the communes except the southernmost Commune 8, which went to Santoro, whose best communes were in the south plus the central Communes 5 and 15. Basically the expected distribution of a bad but not completely terrible result for Todos (ie. the demographic bases of support for both parties haven't changed much)

Lopez Murphy did best (15-20%) in the wealthier communes in the north and along the coast, specifically 1, 2, 12, 13 and 14.  He did considerably worse (1-5%) in the poorer communes in the south and center of the city. Pretty consistent with your standard "European liberal" sort of result.

Milei's performance was fairly even across the city, but interestingly was actually highest (over 14%) in the working class, southwestern Communes 7, 8, 10 and peaking at 15% in Commune 9. Lowest results were just over 12% in the central Communes 5, 6 and 15. Base of support looks more similar to that of right wing populists than liberals but most resembles those general "anti-corruption" parties in Eastern Europe. Of course usually those parties are purely personalist and very vague whereas Milei is intensely ideological and very specific. Challenges a lot of stereotypes.

Myriam Bregman managed 6.5% to 8% in the central and to a lesser extent southeastern communes, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 15. She did worst (4-5.5%) in the northeastern communes 2, 13, 14 and interestingly below average in the southeast. So basically a mirror image of Milei's results, where his worst communes are her best and vice versa. In Commune 15 the combined vote of all the leftists would be slightly higher than his result but everywhere else it isn't close. To my ignorant eye it looks like they were indeed both fighting over protest votes. My first guess was UBA but that (and the other universities for that matter) is in Commune 1, where Bregman did better than the other coastal communes. I leave it to a Porteño to explain why the geography of the battle for 3rd looked so different from that of the battle for 1st because I'd love to see some explanations from someone who knows better

As a bonus, I looked at Cordoba.

The topline results were about as expected and pretty boring but the battle of the lower parties to cross the 1.5% qualification threshold and to take over the comically opportunistic Union Popular Federal was more interesting (if less relevant).

As the colors spoil the libertarian-NOS coalition "REPUBLICANOS" won the leading deputy and senate spots with 28% over the two Federal Peronist lists at 20% and 15%, trailed by the dissident Peronists at 13%, and the Alfonsinists and Kirchnerists tied with 12% each.

Meanwhile, Milei's last minute endorsement for PD appears to have made no difference at all, as they failed to qualify at 0.9%. The knockoff party La Libertad Avanza barely crossed with 1.57% after being denounced for stealing Milei's imagery without his endorsement and ironically for being run by a corrupt local government official who reportedly extorted local businesses for money. So there's a chance he transfers that endorsement to the newly libertarian UPF, and with the wave of credibility and media coverage that might make a measurable impact. Which is to say they might go from 2% to 3% or even 4% instead of collapsing when all the other contenders (except maybe the Federal Peronists) inevitably switch their support to the parties closer to them ideologically.


It's been a great night but I'll be going to bed. Hopefully there's some more detailed analysis over the coming days now that we have the PASO to use for reference. To close, I leave you Milei's victory speech:



"There is nothing to celebrate. Today Argentina is a 50-50 country; 50% inflation and 50% in poverty. If we don't change in 50 years we'll be the most miserable slum in the world. So let's make the political class tremble!"
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2021, 02:39:45 PM »

Originally I was going to boldly guess the November results today and see how it went but things are moving so fast that I'll hold off until we know Kirchner isn't taking control and Massa isn't jumping ship.

So instead I'll look at how well the polls did.

In the key province of Buenos Aires VTP and Santilli were very accurately polled, the former's last two polls had her final percentage off by only .1%. Randazzo was greatly overestimated while Manes significantly outperformed his polling numbers. Espert received less than most polls expected but still fell within expectations (funnily enough he got more votes in the province than he got running for president across the whole country last time) while the leftists received slightly more but still fell within the range.

In CABA Vidal, LM and Santoro all fell right within their polling averages. The combined Leftist vote was slightly above expectations and Milei was the only candidate to end up beating even his best polling numbers.

On that note I came across an even more granular map of Milei's performance by neighbourhood. The three main takeaways are

* His best polling station was Puerto Madero's station 3 in Commune 1, where he won 20% and 2nd place (a very distant 2nd to Vidal but still). To my understanding PM is a new development and is full of tech companies and the like so it sort of makes sense. But that support is very local to that area and Balvanera, with other western neighbourhoods giving him far lower results.

* His second best was station 91 in Parque Avellenada, where he won 19.5% and nearly passed Vidal for second. It's a very unintuitive place for him to so well too; so far as I can tell it's one of the strongest polling stations for Santoro, who won over 40%.

* His support in the southeast is much more consistent. In the triangle between Villa Riachuelo, Flores and Villa Devoto he receives at least 14% in every polling station and in several neighbourhoods is over 16%.
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2021, 07:07:56 PM »

So the situation is still evolving but some things have become clear.

First off, the collapse of Todos was completely unforeseen by the government, and they somehow thought they were on the verge of victory right until the votes started coming in. The most dramatic collapse occurred in the poor and working class suburbs that constitute the core of support, where in many districts they received fewer than half the votes of 2019.

As a result the knives came out and after intense conflict between the conservative Peronists governing the regions, the President's moderate supporters and the leftist Kirchnerists it appears the latter prevailed. Most of the new ministers are from that side of the movement and it looks like the plan from now until November is to loosen COVID restrictions, crank the printing press and hand out benefits to bring turnout up. The gamble is that since moderation failed to bring out the 2017 voters of Massa and Kirchner so going more openly with the latter might at least manage to match or beat her 2017 performance, which would still be an improvement on the current result.

Or, the perception of weakness could actually cause the government to fall even further. The President's unfavourability ranges anywhere from 71% (worse than Macri's approval) to as high as 85%, which might be close to Fernando de la Rúa approval when he was forced to flee angry mobs in a helicopter. Kirchner's favourability is no better, and voters might take their bribes and vote for opposition parties anyway. So there's a pretty big potential swing either way for FdT depending on how the coming months go.
 
On the other side of the aisle Larreta is, at least on the surface, in the strongest political position he's ever been in. His leader swap appears to have worked, or at least to have not backfired, and his likely opposition completely collapsed.

However, ironically the weakness of the government could hurt him too. JxC is heavily defined by being the only viable alternative to a Peronist government, but if Peronism collapses then the urgency to vote for the broad coalition over parties more representative of people's ideological positions can decline too. This success has arguably led to enflamed tensions within the coalition between Larreta, Macri's supporters and the intransigent right wing hawks of Patricia Bullrich, who has increasingly made public overtures towards Milei.

The Leftists of FIT-U had a good PASO, and thanks to their strong organization letting them run in most provinces they came out as the third force in terms of votes. In both CABA and PBA they managed to improve enough to almost certainly gain seats and in several provinces they had good performances, most notably Jujuy where they pulled off a strong 3rd place with just under 25% of the vote. While they might be stereotyped as college students they're clearly capable of expanding their appeal to the leftists of both major parties with strong local campaigns. However, they're plagued by a lack of strong leaders with national appeal; del Caño is a meme and doesn't exactly seem like the type to lead a national movement. Still, if the leftists in the government become disillusioned then some might migrate over and provide some talent and heft.

In CABA, one of the best nominal results for JxC, the situation for transfers between now and the general election is actually among the worst. Vidal won a commanding lead over Santoro, though the latter led one of the few government lists to improve since 2017, but Milei's overperformance is extremely unfavourable. Where before many assumed he would fall short of his polling numbers and he kept expectations low, now he's set the goal of surpassing Todos to take second place, and the crazy thing is that a lot of people, including those who support the government, think that it isn't impossible.

Many of the factors against Milei are now in his favour; he's proven that he has a strong base of support that will actually turn out, Santoro's numbers aren't likely to grow much and he seems to draw nearly all of his support in the villas from the government, so it's hard to argue he's splitting the vote. Just trivially adding the votes of Lopez Murphy and the minor right-of-center lists that fell short of the cutoff would be enough, though of course plenty of those voters won't go for Milei for one reason or another. If nothing dramatic happens I'd guess he pulls around 17%, but with strong campaigning it's anyone's guess.

On that note, his rallies have only been growing. A few days ago he held a rally at Plaza Larrazábal in Liniers, one of his stronger neighbourhoods in the southeast, and despite only giving a few hours notice several hundred people showed up.



He recently announced he's going to give economic lectures throughout the city. The first was at Parque Saavedra and had pretty good turnout.



The TN debate will be on October 13 featuring María Eugenia Vidal (JxC), Leandro Santoro (FdT), Javier Milei (LLA) and Myriam Bregman (FIT). The PBA debate will be on the 20th.

In news from the other provinces, Formosa will have a united opposition as the leader of the third force there endorsed Juntos. Todos won less than 50% and theoretically could lose first here, which would be a huge moral blow, but really it doesn't matter that much because there are two seats that'll almost certainly go 1-1 regardless.
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2021, 12:40:20 PM »

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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2021, 10:09:43 PM »

The latest poll from CABA confirms the trend of the past several polls, where Vidal leads comfortably while Santoro and Milei battle for 2nd and Bregman sits right at the deputy threshold with the support of the small fry Leftists (except Zamora).



However, what distinguishes this poll from the others is that it bothers to break down results by Commune, and surprisingly the former Peronist strongholds, Commune 8 (Lugano, Soldati) and Commune 9 (Mataderos, Parque Avellenada, Liniers), are three way dead heat races. Santoro leads the former and Milei (!) is ahead in the latter.





It appears Vidal generally held her support and prevented much of Lopez Murphy's support from leaving in the northern neighbourhoods like Recoleta but in the southeast those votes (plus Rubinstein and the parties that fell under the treshold) have all gone straight to LLA. She's generally done a very poor job of integrating liberals besides making the occasional sound about onerous taxes and regulations. Of course it's hard for her to push too hard because in many cases those very impositions come from her own party's city government but she could at least try to incorporate Lopez Murphy; there was a campaign photo where the guy who won 11% of the vote and a high place on the list was hilariously hidden in a corner like it was "Where's Waldo Lopez Murphy?"

The alarm bells at La Cámpora are going off, though, as they just realized Milei hurts them as much as if not more than Vidal, so Santoro has switched from ignoring the former to calling him a threat to democracy. It would definitely be a threat to the dignity of the city's current opposition if they lost Mataderos to Milei, let alone getting knocked down to third place. If his appeal happened to extend into the suburbs then it could be even worse than that in 2023.

For Milei's part, he's transitioned to a more conciliatory tone, particularly towards both anti-K Peronists and Bullrich's hawks and so far it's worked out for him, doubling his floor and ceiling to around 12% and 31% respectively. Of course there's still plenty of campaign to go for his support to collapse but right now he's at the absolute limit of where he was expected to be before the PASO and his list is so thin that he's right at the threshold of sending a high school girl to the city legislature.

For the other provinces, in Jujuy Vilca and FIT-U have taken second, a great achievement for them and a very bad sign for the government.



While in Formosa the opposition is convincingly ahead, a devastating blow to morale even if the seats will come out the same regardless. If Formosa isn't safe for the government then no province is.

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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2021, 01:44:12 PM »

CABA debate tonight. By random draw Bregman gets the first opening statement and Milei gets the final closing statement. It might turn into Milei vs everyone else but Vidal doesn't want that at all so I'm curious to see how she does.
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2021, 11:36:12 PM »

So I'm not going to do a complete writeup but the debate was a mess. Santoro was competent enough but he wasn't able to stand out much because when he tried to set up an attack on Vidal on security policy he was suddenly blindsided by Bregman. Without the ability to setup he was reduced to "Ah, but Vidal/Milei/Macri"

Then whenever Milei so much as opened his mouth Bregman would come in calling him a fascist, accusing him of interrupting her and yelling over her because he hates women as she interrupted and yelled over him. This peaked in the one on one section, where for reasons beyond me the two were paired up and the latter couldn't even wait for Milei to finish his opening statement without interrupting. For some reason he also steadfastly refused to attack his opponents directly which to me was a bit like trying to box without hitting the other guy in the face. Still, his prepared statements were solid and in his exchanges there were both moments his detractors will say are disqualifying (mostly on social issues) and where his supporters would say were strong so it's hard to say whether he won or lost compared to anyone else. Some people had ludicrous expectations of him that were disappointed, though, and he definitely could have damaged Vidal and Santoro by going for the throat instead of attacking "la casta" in the abstract.

Vidal managed to mostly avoid trouble thanks to Bregman derailing prepared attacks on her as effectively as a paid agent. She ran a harder line message than usual and almost seemed like she was copying Milei. I'd question her sincerity and frankly so should have Milei, but for whatever reason he didn't and so her new liberal facade remained unchallenged. At one point Santoro managed to get a crack in that Bregman didn't interrupt and Vidal was forced to dodge with weak attacks on the national government. If she'd faced any serious pressure I think she'd have collapsed but since she only had to worry about relatively predictable Santoro (and really only during the one on one section) she came out the most unscathed of any candidate. If you think all she had to do was not screw up then she won, though I didn't think she did much to convince people who didn't vote for her the first time around besides perhaps a few Lopez Murphy voters who just wanted to hear the words "tax cuts" more often.

I'd guess Santoro is the biggest loser despite not doing all that bad if only because he was the most forgettable and was squeezed between Bregman and Milei without being able to land a good blow on Vidal. Bregman I found intensely irritating but I could see how some Kirchnerists might think she totally exposed Milei as fascist woman hating Jair J. Videla. I doubt much changes either way, though. Perhaps Milei's momentum is somewhat blunted, considering in the latest poll he actually passed Santoro and some people acted like he was an unstoppable force but otherwise I don't think a lot changes
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2021, 03:13:27 PM »


If we were judging this like an academic debate competition I'd say it goes Vidal then Santoro but this was a political debate and the goals of the candidates weren't uniform. If the 2019 debate had been a competition then Espert would have been the overwhelming winner but it didn't work out that way at the polls.

The former only needed to avoid blowing up and to look reasonable and in that she succeeded. I just think her pivot to being a liberal is untenable in the long run and if she'd been pressed hard the facade would have collapsed, but she wasn't so it was a win for her. The latter, on the other hand, is closer to getting pushed down to third than taking first even if we only consider the PASO and ignore the polls so he had to actually motivate his support yet he was easily the most forgettable in the debate. Attacking the provincial government is fair when your opponent's campaign is practically an arm of the provincial government but you need more than that for a breakthrough.

Milei took plenty of controversial positions that may be unacceptable to the majority of voters in CABA but none were new. His stances on abortion, climate change and even Bussi have all had plenty of coverage and attacks up to this point, some even before the PASO, and they've had next to no impact on his polling. Simply put, his core of support comes from angry anti-systemic working class youths who really hate lockdowns and high taxes and my guess is the overwhelming majority don't care in the slightest about those issues one way or the other. If they weren't disqualifying weeks ago then they probably won't be now.

Debates are shaped by the clips produced and shared after the fact and there are plenty of both for Milei. People who hate him or who at least wouldn't have voted for him will say he did terribly and post him arguing about abortion or climate change. People who love him will post "MILEI LEAVES COMMUNIST FOAMING AT THE MOUTH" (no I'm not making that title up) and argue that the moderators were biased. But in the end everyone is talking about him instead of Vidal and sometimes bad press is better than no press.

Still, this probably won't change much either way.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2021, 09:54:45 PM »



"ENOUGH POLENTA" (written in polenta lmao)

Looks like the FdT recovery strategy isn't going so hot. Everyone in the government has a catastrophically bad image and the apparent beneficiary so far is Larreta.

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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2021, 05:58:53 PM »

On the one hand, Todos has run a pretty pathetic campaign and most of their major figures are acting less like they have a cunning comeback plan and more like they're getting ready to flee the sinking ship. CFK of all people has been reduced to trying to pass as a capitalist like it's 1991. Massa looks like he might go back to being Massa.

But then they are engaging in the most blatant kinds of electoral bribery, right up to "send us a picture of your vote and we'll send you 10,000 pesos". If anything having to go so far seems like a sign that they're weaker than ever, though. Before if they gave someone a fridge or polentas they'd actually get their vote whereas these days people will take their free stuff and vote against the government.

JxC also hasn't exactly run a stellar campaign either of course. At Vidal's penultimate campaign event the CC-ARI and UCR militants identified the real enemy: Patricia Bullrich, who was giving a speech endorsing Vidal, for the crime of being too friendly to Milei.



The latter laughed merrily until she realized that it's 2021, not 2024



One weird thing about the results from the PASO that isn't obvious if you don't go province by province with a D'Hondt calculator is that there actually isn't that much room for JxC seat gains with anything short of an overwhelming shift of the vote in their favour. The marginal deputy seats in the smaller provinces mostly went their way (with the exception of San Juan) so there's little room for growth there. In the realistic best case scenario even in the big provinces they'd be limited to 2 in PBA and 1 each in Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, Córdoba and Mendoza. Add a few seats that Juntos can't win going third way like the FdT seat in Jujuy flipping to FIT and their third seat in CABA being lost to LLA or Bregman and while JxC would be just short of a majority the government would have no legislative path at all.

Whereas it would take less than a 5% uniform shift in votes towards the government to win them back 9 seats, and most of those seats are in small provinces so really it would take far less to win most of them back. They could easily come out of this with a lower share of the overall vote but more seats than the PASO as a result.

It's also worth considering that it's hard for JxC to form a majority with this election because the half of the legislature up for election is that half that was elected in 2017, a year that was (until this election anyway) an unprecedented anti-Peronist blowout, so there wasn't much room for improvement. If the PASO results repeated in these elections and then again in 2024 it would produce a Juntos supermajority of deputies and a strong majority of senators too.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #24 on: November 14, 2021, 05:54:12 PM »

The early projections in CABA have Vidal holding reasonably well around 48%, Santoro below expectations in the low 20s while Milei and Bregman both overperformed at around 20% and 8% respectively.
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