Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Given how bad the last 15-20 years for the UCR, what sort of path forward do figures in the party see? Are there any who want to break with Cambio?

The plan seems to be to enlarge JxC by including other opposition forces like the socialist party, Margarita Stolbizer's GEN, dissident peronists, liberals (the López Murphy type, not the "twitter crowd" of Milei and Espert), the small but growing movement of organized evangelicals, etc.; basically to create a broad antikirchnerist front, and then, by pressure as the largest component or by primary competition, become the leaders of said opposition front.
And yes, there are some that advocate the breakeup of the coalition, but these are marginal voices without any influence, like Ricardo Alfonsín, who's still affiliated but has esentially become a kirchnerist now, he'll probably follow other "radicales K" and leave the party or get expelled.

What is Roberto Lavagna's ideology exactly given his coalition draws together both Socialists and certain other non-Peronist leftists as well as Dissident Peronists?

Moderate peronism, i think? At least that's how he's usually identified as.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

I'll  continue Bourbon's good work and cover Santa Fe, imo the most interesting province from an electoral perspective.

Up for grabs in November are 9 seats in the chamber of deputies elected in 2017, and 3 seats in the senate elected in 2015, with the current distribution of those seats being:

- 5 from Jxc
-3 from FdT
-1 from the socialist party

and

-2 senators from the FdT
-1 from JxC

There's a bunch of lists, but only FdT, JxC and the PS will realistically win anything. Also i couldn't find the full lists of deputies, only the first two or three names (not that anyone would care). Now, for September's primaries:

The FdT ended up with two competing lists for both categories, despite the mandate from Buenos Aires to have a single list in all districts. But the infighting of the different tribes of the PJ made this impossible, and two lists will compete. Some backstory to explain what happened.

In 2019, after 12 years out of power, the PJ won Santa Fe's gubernatorial election, thanks to an alliance of the different peronist factions. The winer was Omar Perotti, a former mayor from a town in the rural interior of the province, and his runing mate was Alejandra Rodenas, a former judge known for leading the trial of one the biggest Narco gangs in the city of Rosario.

But the peronist alliance was short lived, within less than a year the relationship between Perotti and one of his 2019 allies, Armando Traferri, soured. Traferri was the leader of the peronist bloc in the provincial senate, and the head of NES (Nuevo Espacio Santafesino), one of the main internal groups of the PJ in Santa Fe. There's many chapters in the Perotti- Traferri saga, i'll jut mention one, the charges presented by prosecutors last year towards Traferri, who's accused of being the leader of an illegal gambling ring with ties to drug traffic. The provincial senator  proclaimed himself innocent and denounced a witch hunt against him, while Perotti declared his full suport towards the investigation. This all lead to the peronist bloc in the provincial senate splitting into pro-Traferri and pro-perotti factions, and the relationship between the governor and the vicegovernor to become rather tense, as Rodenas is a member of NES.

Without NES support, Perotti has had to rely heavily on the other groups within the PJ, mainly the "Corriente Nacional de la Militancia", headed by the Nation's Minister of Defense Agustín Rossi, as well as La Campora, Movimiento Evita, Frente Renovador, etc. It wasn't until a couple months ago that Perotti created his own group "Hacemos Santa Fe", which (by virtue of being backed by the governor himself) quickly grew in size, specially in the rural interior.

Having explained this, the division of the FdT in two list is just another episode of peronist infighting. Perotti wanted to have a single list that would contain all groups, but Rossi (who has long ambitioned to govern the province) decided to present his own list for senators and deputies, and struck a deal with NES to have Rodenas as his running mate in the senate ticket, thus challenging the governor, and positioning himself for a (possible) gubernatorial run in 2023.

Perotti then made a last minute deal with the other factions and presented the list Marcelo Lewandowski (a pro-Perotti provincial senator)- María de los Angeles Sacnun (incumbent national senator) for the senate, and for the chamber of deputies he chose Roberto Mirabella, the other incumbent national senator and one of his closest friends, to head the list of deputies.

The twist in this development is that Perotti might be, out of all the provincial governors, the one closest to Alberto Fernandez, while Rossi is an old and very loyal ally of Cristina Kirchner. But in this election, Alberto suported Rossi's plan, while Perotti ended up joining forces with the vicepresident, as he chose Sacnun, one of Cristina's favourite senators, to be in his list.

I'll cut it here to not make it too long, will make a second post for the rest.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Part deux

This year marks the end of the alliance between the UCR and the Socialist Party in Santa Fe. Kinda.

Up until now, half of the UCR had supported the Progressive Front (the UCR and PS society that governed the province from 2007 to 2019), while the other half supported JxC, leading to the not at all confusing situation of the party being a member of both alliances at the same time.

This continued until this year, when NEO (Nuevo Espacio Organizado), the largest internal group of the UCR, finally took the decision to abandon the Front and join JxC for national elections. Only one radical faction remains in the progressive front, "Radicales Libres", a small group of radicals that seem to have forgotten theirs is meant to be a centrist, big tent party, and took the whole "progressive" part really seriously, rejecting any alliance with the "conservative right"( i.e, PRO).

Anyways, with JxC enlarged by NEO's entry, and without any leadership of any kind that could force a single list like in previous years, four lists were put forward, each representing a different faction of the coalition.

- The first one is that of Federico Angelini, national deputy and the national vicepresident of the PRO party. He's a candidate for the senate, his runing mate being Amalia Granata, a provincial legislator known mostly for her previous work as a media celebrity and for her staunch anti-abortion activism. The accompanying list of deputies is made mostly of PRO members, but it also includes Walter Ghione, a pastor and leader of UNO, a recently created evangelical party.

-The second list is that of the José Corral (UCR) - Roy López Molina (PRO) tandem. Corral is the former mayor of Santa Fe city, while Lopez Molina is a councilman from Rosario, and the arch-rival of Angelini (The two have been locked in a fight for control of Santa Fe's PRO for a while, wich lead to a breakup of the PRO's bloc in Rosario's city council). The candidates for the senate are Corral- Astrid Hummel (PRO), and for deputies Lopez Molina, followed by Lucila Lehmman of the CC-ARI.

-The third list is the product of Julian Galdeano and Mario Barletta's alliance. Both are radicals, the former a provincial legislator, the later a former mayor of Santa Fe, one of the founders of the Progressive Front back in 2005, and one of the early advocates of the UCR joining Cambiemos in 2017. Barletta is the first candidate for deputy, followed by Germana Figueroa Casas (PRO), the senatorial list meanwhile includes journalist Carolina Losada and Dionisio Scarpin, the mayor of a rural town in the north of the province.

-The fourth list is that of Maximiliano Pullaro, the head of the aforementioned NEO. He's running for the senate with Carolina Piedrabuena (UCR), for the deputies list he chose provincial legislator Gabriel Chumpitaz (PRO).


Meanwhile, the once powerful Progressive Front is going through some rough times. Most of the UCR has abandoned the alliance, meaning it's basically the socialist party and some other small center left groups at this point, and polarization between the two national coalitions has eaten most of their votes. At the same time, their leader and undisputed candidate, former governor Miguel Lifschitz, suddenly died from covid in May, and without anyone powerful enough to outright take his place, two factions have emerged, leading to two list competing in the primaries.

- One puts forward provincial legislator (and Lifschitz widow) Clara García for the senate, and as deputy Mónica Fein, former mayor of Rosario and the national president of the Socialist Party

-The other one is backed by the current mayor of Rosario Pablo Javkin, it includes Rubén Giustiniani (an old socialist figure that had left the Front in 2017 and is back now) and María Eugenia Schmuck (UCR) for the senate race; and for deputies, Fabián Oliver (the head of "Radicales Libres").

Wichever list wins the primary will likely define who get's to lead the Front going forward, Javkin or Fein.

Then there's some other lists competing:

- The Left Front.
- Nuevo Mas, the one leftist party that refuses to join the Left Front.
-Unite, an anti-abortion party (i'm sure they have other positions, but they're known basically for that)
-Primero Santa Fe, an alliance of small parties put togheter by a former radical and a guy who was expelled from the socialist party when he voted against the legalization of abortion in 2018.
-Soberanía Popular, an alliance of local leftist parties.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

There were provincial elections in Salta, which were won by the incumbent independent Peronist coalition of Unidos por Salta and Si - Salta Independiente.
JxC ran two separate lists and did okay (17.5% for the main list and a little over 6% for the UCR splinter); FdT did quite badly, only getting 9.2% while a separate Kirchnerist list pulled about 5%. Turnout was also low, and there were an unusually high number of blank votes and spoiled ballots.

Those results are only for one race (provincial senator for the capital district) in one of three categories (provincial senate, provincial chamber of deputies and constitutional convention); the final results were this:

- All the "saencistas" lists (and there were many) got a combined 20 out of 30 seats elected this year for the provincial lower chamber. Kirchnerist lists got 4, Salta Independiente got 3, JxC got 3.
- In th upper chamber, Saenz got 9 out of 12 seats, the remaining 3 went to the kirchnerists.
-In the constitutional convention Saenz got 38 of 60 seats, kirchnerists 12, JxC 8, Salta Independiente 1 and the Left Front 1

A resounding victory for Saenz, who maintains his supermajorities in the legislature and has a majority to reform the provincial constitution. FdT and JxC did poorly, but they maintain what they had, plus Saenz is friendly to both coallitions, so they can't really complain. The only loser was the Left, it lost it's only legislator, and is now without representation in yet another provincial legislature after Jujuy earlier this year.

In national news, President Fernández's birthday scandal has evolved as more pictures came out showing him and his cabinet (most flagrantly Massa) flagrantly ignoring their own rules of social distancing, restricting numbers at social gatherings and mask wearing. The image of both the President and the government has been hit hard; disapproval hit a record high of 70.8%.

The scandal certainy damaged his image, but not "70% disaproval" kind of damage, not even Macri has those numbers (and he's far and away the most unpopular argentine politician). A good reminder of how bad polling is in this country.

Unfortunately for JxC, their governor-swap decision seems to have reduced their ability to take advantage, at least in PBA and CABA. Santilli and Vidal haven't been very popular and have lost ground to what were supposed to be sacrificial candidacies, those of Manes and Lopez Murphy respectively.

Eh, Vidal might not get the 80% she might had hoped initially, but she'll still win comfortably against Lopez Murphy. Most JxC voters like her, and i don't see her losing against a washed up 90's politician and his list of internet celebrities.

As for Manes, regardless of the final result, he's not and was never intended to be a testimonial candidate, the UCR chose him precisely because of how competitive he is against Santilli (another strong candidate). Neither will win in the general against the FdT of course, but the JxC primary in PBA will at least be competitive race.

FIT held a youth event. It had okay turnout. The continuing decline in the image of Fernández probably helps them in picking up disgruntled Kirchnerists. On the other hand, they've been going very hard against Milei, calling him literally Hitler Videla and such. Probably because they're worried he's taking their place as the go-to protest vote.

Two things. First, there's little cross voting between kirchnerists and the left, and when there is, it's mostly leftists voting for kirchnerists rather than the other way around. Most kirchnerists (nevermind peronists in general) have a very negative opinion of he left, whom they perceive as idiots "that can't see the real pathway towards a popular government isn't that foreign commie nonsense but our own national peronist movement". That's why kirchnerists are always acusing the FIT of being "just another tool of the right", and love making fun of them. Leftists have an equally negative opinion of the PJ and the Kirchners, but many of them are pragmatic enough to sometimes vote for a kirchnerist as the lesser evil, like they did in 2019. With the way things are going (badly that is), these particular voters will most definitively vote for the FIT now, but this isn't the Left gaining new voters, but rather just geting them back.
The actual disgruntled kirchnerist voters, the ones disapointed with Alberto, are independents and moderate peronists, who probably never liked Cristina in the first place, and these people will vote for someone like Randazzo, not the Left Front.

The second thing is that no, the Left isn't the "go-to protest vote" and never has been, not even at the height of social upheaval in 2001. The general perception in this country is that the Left are a bunch of university hippies and stoners, slum dwellers who don't work and are constantly obstructing streets in demand of more welfare, and woke progressives who care more for criminals than their victims. If you are an argentine and want to protest against the political class, you won't vote for the Left, because you most likely think they're useless and part of the problem. There's no competition between Milei and the FIT, they trade insults simply because one's a libertarian and the others are trotskyists, of course they hate each other.

Also, i'd suggest you not to make any predictions for the general election based on polling, not only because polling here is very unreliable, but also because results of the primaries and the generals are diferent; the PASO mainly functions as a sort of "first round" in wich people vote however they want, but then in the generals, with results of the primaries at hand, many change their preference and vote strategically (see Macri gaining two million votes between august and october of 2019); so even if the polls are correct, results in september and november won't be the same.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

For the sake of our currency, I hope the difference between FDT and JXC in Buenos Aires isn't too big (i'm hoping something like 44% to 36%). Upwards of 10 points and it's devaluation time.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

For the sake of our currency, I hope the difference between FDT and JXC in Buenos Aires isn't too big (i'm hoping something like 44% to 36%). Upwards of 10 points and it's devaluation time.

Not election-related, but what's the difference between where dólar oficial and dólar blue are used? Like, if I wanted to exchange money at the airport, what rate would they give? How about an Argentinian going to the bank to exchange their pay into dollars?

I was gonna say that official exchanges use the official dollar, but then i remembered there's different kinds of dollars, so it kinda depends on the situation. However, when people want to buy dollars with their pay, ussually they go to the black market, it's more expensive but it's also quicker and there are no set limits to how much you can buy.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Speaking of Milei, he showed up in Vox's weekend rally:

https://twitter.com/FilosofiaPolti/status/1447144137078280192

Dime con quién andas, y te diré quién eres...

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

I came away with a different impression

Vidal made the best use of the debate, she was calm and prepared, attacked only Santoro and responded well to his attacks, and was clear in her message: "Vote for us so that we'll stop the government in congress. Also we are in favour of fiscal conservatism, but in a sensible way" *winks at camera*. Unauthentic and boring, yes, but she's already won, all she has to do is make sure those López Murphy voters go with her and not the guy to her right with the weird hairdo.

Santoro i thought was fine. Didn't have any gaffes and stuck mostly to his "i'm a kirchnerist, but i'm also a moderate, i'll defend my government but can sometimes disagree with them (did i mention i'm a moderate?)" shtick.
Tried to focus on local issues, wich doesn't make much sense since this is a national election, but then again it's easier for him to criticise the local opposition government in CABA than to defend the national administration of his own party. Given the difficult task he had, i think he came out largely unscathed.

Bregman went with the same speech as always: austerity, feminism, the youth, the capitalists, the IMF, we the workers, etc, etc, etc. Nothing new, but at this point they've probably given up on converting anyone, and were most likely trying to maybe win any Zamora voter watching the debate and not seeing him there. Went hard on Milei wich was fun to watch, certainly the most energetic one.

Milei was the worst, seemed unfocused and nervous at points. Referenced a bunch of obscure economic concepts no one in the audience would understand and responded to attacks with "fallacy, that's a fallacy" (very libertarian, i know).
When the others ridiculed him for not believing in climate change his response was some nonsese about the world actually getting colder, said he wasn't vaccinated because "he doesn't trust vaccines have been properly tested" or some bs like that, admited to having once worked for a general convicted for crimes against humanity in the last dictatorship (his excuse being that at the time he hadn't been convicted yet), and refused to answer whether an 11 year old pregnant girl should have an abortion, instead going on an explanation of why life begins at conception, that he supports the freedom to live above anything else and abortions should only be allowed in cases of risk to the mother's health cause "that's a conflict of property" (??)
All in all yeah, i see why he's so popular among teenage edgelords.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Speaking of Milei, he showed up in Vox's weekend rally:

Dime con quién andas, y te diré quién eres...

Oh great, the chances of him meeting up with Kast is basically 100%.

https://twitter.com/joseantoniokast/status/1437238429650235392?lang=es
 

I wonder if Milei also want emergency powers to incarcerate leftists lol

I'll just leave this here

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Aside from population density, these kind of dot maps are good at showing socieconomical differences. Compare it to this quality of life map and you can see how poorer areas vote for the FdT and wealthier areas for JxC (this isn't always the case of course, but you get the idea).

It is specially noticeable in urban areas:

Great Buenos Aires


Rosario


San Miguel de Tucumán


San Juan


Córdoba


Córdoba is very antikirchnerist, so it's mostly yellow dots and no blue ones , but you can see in the poorer areas that the peronist Hacemos por Córdoba won (though they're also antikirchnerists)

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Veintiocho de Noviembre: SER 40%, Todos 35%. Río Turbio: SER 44%, Todos 32%. Paso Dorotea: SER 45%, Todos 35%. Perón will be turning in his grave when he finds out his official successors can't even get all coal miners - the only coal miners in Argentina! - to vote for them.

I looked at the 2019 map (which might also interest you), and there doesn't seem to have been any significant change in the peronist vote share, it's just that this time around there were two lists vying for that electorate, the official one as you say and the dissident one from Claudio Vidal's SER. And from what i understand Vidal is only at odds with the local PJ, he still supports the national government.
Also i'm sure Perón would be much more pissed at the fact that the left wing of the PJ (which he once referred to as "marxists and fagg*ts") is now in charge of his movement.
 

Escuela Secundaria 24: Todos 70%, Juntos 13%. In Caballito, right in the middle of Buenos Aires city, surrounded by 40-60% Juntos territory. Wasn't sure what's going on here. The area looks pretty nice, judging by Streetview. Thought I'd check out the telegrama (the official vote tally sheet), just in case it's actually a mistake... and it is: the header says distrito Buenos Aires, sección electoral Avellaneda. Which explains it, but also wtf.

Yeah, every blue dot not located in the south of the city (save from the one in Villa 31) seems to be a mistake from the mapmakers.

Escuela Provincial 122, Trelew: Juntos 48%, Todos 17%, Chubut Somos Todos 14%, FIT 10%. It's two blocks from Ysgol yr Hendre, and closest I can get to a Welsh-language school. There are several bilingual Spanish-Welsh schools, but they're all private (and hence don't get polling stations, or so I assume) or too small. I don't think the results would've been any different from others, but it'd've been cool to see how an ysgol Gymraeg votes

At least here in CABA private schools are used as polling stations, maybe smaller towns that  require less stations only use public schools, or it just varies by jurisdiction, i don't know. In any case, given how close the two schools are, the people assigned to vote at EP 122 would probably be the same ones assigned at Ysgol yr Hendre if it were used for voting, so results would likely be the same.

There is exactly one JxC polling station in the province of Santiago del Estero outside the capital city, and it gave 95% to Juntos - yes, 95%, except... it didn't. I checked the telegrama out of curiosity, and it turns out that 1) it's actually right over the border in Catamarca 2) it's about 50-50 Juntos-Todos 3) the presidente de mesa, some guy called Raul Herrera, was too lazy to fill out like half of the form, including the total number of votes, which is probably where the fxckup comes from. What were you doing, Raul? ಠ_ಠ

There are (that i could find) three more yellow dots outside Santiago capital: one across the river in La Banda (which is also a mistake, that polling station is from Chaco), one in Bandera and one in Selva. This two towns are located in the south eastern corner of the province, an area where JxC does pretty decently (Macri actually won here in 2015), i assume due to being richer and more economically connected to the rural areas of neighbouring Santa Fe.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

I am having a feeling Juntos por el cambio will be having a good day on Sunday. Do you think they will get a majority in diputados and the Senado?

Based on september's results, no and no. An optimistic but also realistic target for JxC would be 120 seats, which would make them the largest bloc in chamber, not a majority (they'd need 129 for that), but enough to obstruct/pressure the ruling coalition.

In the senate they couldn't get a majority even if they won all eight provinces, whch isn't happening anyway. Best case scenario JxC and their senate allies reach 34 seats, only one fewer than the FdT.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

From La Nación's projection

In the chamber of deputies:
FdT: 118
JxC:117
Left front: 4 (good result for them)
Espert and Milei's lists: 4 (really good result for them)
Provincial parties (MPN, JSRN, FRCM, HpC, PS) and independents: 14

In the senate:
FdT: 35
JxC: 34
Provincial parties (JSRN, FRCM and HpC): 3

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Seems like the plan "just throw a ton of money into welfare so that poor people will feel any motivation to come out and vote for us" didn't give the government a win in Buenos Aires, but it allowed them to close the gap quite a bit.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Well i think this results are now final:

Juntos por el Cambio: 61 deputies and 14 senators
Frente de Todos: 50 deputies and 9 senators
Hacemos por Córdoba: 3 deputies and 1 senator
Frente de Izquierda y los Trabajadores: 4 deputies
Avanza Libertad/La Libertad Avanza: 4 deputies
Vamos con vos: 1 deputy
Partido Socialista: 1 deputy
Movimiento Popular Neuquino: 1 deputy
Juntos somos Río Negro: 1 deputy
Somos Energía Renovadora para Santa Cruz: 1 deputy
Frente Renovador para la Concordia Misionera: 1 deputy



The final composition of congress will only be known after the new legislators take office next month, but it would be something like this:


In the chamber of deputies:

FdT: 118 (-2). Given the bleak post-primaries expectations, a decent result, they remain the largest bloc or first minority, and thus retain the presidency of the chamber.
Before the election there was some talk about a possible break up of the bloc, due to tensions between the "kirchnerist" and the "peronist" factions of government, this seems to have subsided, but with the threat of division gone, they'll have to deal with the other big issue, that they didn't get any closer to the necessary 129 deputies for quorum. Sergio Massa and Máximo Kirchner (the president of the chamber and bloc leader, repectively) will have to work hard to get the support of the opposition and the smaller parties in order to get anything done.

JxC: 116 (+1). Given the post-primaries expectations, a rather disappointing result, they were aiming at 120 and to surpass the FdT, but it's certainly not a bad result either. The internal compostion of the "inter-bloc" it's not clear yet, there's a lot of movements taking place, but my estimations are this:
PRO: ~49
UCR: ~47
CC-ARI: 11
And about 9 or 10 deputies from smaller, mainly provincial allied parties.

The Left Front doubled their seats (which wasn't that difficult, they had only two), but after 2019 they looked at the risk of losing parliamentary representation, so they're very happy. How they'll behave is always mystery, they're kinda like the wildcard of congress, bills you'd expect them not to care about they vote on, bills you'd expect them to support (like last year's tax on millionaires), they abstain. At least we can expect some fiery exchanges with the liberal deputies.

And speaking of, the liberal lists of Avanza Libertad and La Libertad Avanza got 4 seats, but it's unclear wheter they'll form a single bloc or separate ones. Espert says they're discussing it but Milei says they aren't and he doesn't seem too keen on it.
This just a feeling i have, and I won't make any predictions, but it wouldn't surprise me, given the very strong personalities of their members (especially of Milei), if by 2023 all four have gone their separate ways. It kinda reminds me of the "Somos vida" list that got five seats in the provincial legislature of Santa Fe in 2019, a personality driven, anti-abortion alliance that quickly disolved due to internal dissagrements (two of those legislators are now with JxC).

Lastly, there are talks between the the provincial parties (MPN, JSRN, FRCM and HpC), the Socialists and the peronists of Consenso federal (whom i assume Randazzo will join) to form a single "Federal inter-bloc". This would give them a lot of leverage on the government, their combined 13 votes are the key to the quorum, and that would make their votes very valuable (and very expensive, a lot of funds and infrastructure works would be given in exchange).


As for the senate:

FdT: 35 (-6), which means they don't have a majority anymore. Not nearly as dramatic a situation as many have put it, they're only two votes away from quorum and can still reach it with support from the provincial parties. But those 2 votes will now become very valuable and, as said before, very expensive.
Still a very uncomfortable situation for Cristina, she had little interest in presiding the senate already, now add a more powerful opposition bloc, were some of the new senators are among her most harshest critics; she might stop showing up altogether for the remainder of her term.

JxC: 31 (+6), good result, necessary one too (checks and balances and all that). The opposition certainly got lucky, the batch of provinces that had to elect senators this year was very favourable to them, but it was still quite a good performance.
Internally it's:
UCR: 19
PRO: 10
And two from provincial allies (Producción y Trabajo and Partido de la Justicia Social)

I'm not sure what will happen to the three senators from "Parlamentario Federal", they acted as allies of JxC until now, so i assume they'll continue this way.

Hacemos por Córdoba, the electoral alliance of Córdoba's schismatic PJ regained the seat they had lost when senator Carlos Caserio joined the FdT, an utterly incomprehensible move given how antikirchnerist Córdoba is (as exemplified by the fact that in that province the PJ runs against the FdT).

The senators of JSRN and FRCM are now the key to the quorum, they will soon start collecting favours from the national government.

I guess this election resulted in three things:

• The consolidation of the two big coalitions.
• The growth of the extremes on both right and left.
• As polarization between the coalitions grows, centrist options become less appealing and more irrelevant at the national level, surviving only on a local level in the form of provincial parties, whose defense of regional interests is always attractive to local voters.