Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14

[Edu]

Governor:
Gustavo Valdés [inc] (UCR/ECO) - Pedro Braillard (Partido Popular/Pro) 76.6% (+22.07)
Fabián Ríos (PJ) -Martín Barrionuevo (PJ) 23.25% (-21.95, ouch)

With some luck, this is a sign of things to come

[Edu]

Because of nonsense covid protocols, pretty big lines have been forming at pollings stations in lots of places (Reminder: almost everything is opened up again, there is no reason to have an election with such annoying protocols)

I went to vote and when I saw that the line went around the block I noped out of there.

[Edu]

Haven't checked everything but Chaco is 92% counted and it's 44% JxC to 36% FdT. Entre Rios is 97% counted at 52% JxC 29.5% FdT

This basically looks like a catastrophically bad election for the government, worse than 2017 in most ways. There are a few bright spots like gains in La Rioja but otherwise they're set to lose a ton in the general. They're probably panicking in the Pink House right now

Butchering in the senate too, compared with 2015

[Edu]

Kirchnerists under 45% in La Matanza lol

[Edu]

This just might be a total political realignment

I share your happiness over today's results, but let's not get excited lol

[Edu]

We still have more than a month to go, so of course, Argentina being Argentina, anything could happen, but at this point the odds of the government losing even worse than last month are greater than them gaining whatever votes via clientelism.

There was a poll I read about recently that has Fernandez at like 16% approval lmao

[Edu]

There was a protest today against crime (specifically for a murder of a store owner) in the province of Buenos Aires and the government threw tear gas at the people.

And the government has gone full 1000% clientelism in the past month and a half, basically destroying whatever money the governmet has left, to try and win the elections. The worst thing is that despite polls and common sense I'm still afraid they might win some votes or even win the election outright, not likely but before every election, the feeling of dread intensifies.

The future of the country looks pretty bleak. Ugh, I hate these people so much

[Edu]

If someone wants to know the results of the PASO in any of the polling places, here's this nice thing. You can also see how your actual polling station did. Not sure if there is a paywall or something but you can just enter incognito.

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/antes-de-volver-a-las-urnas-mira-los-resultados-de-las-paso-en-la-escuela-donde-votaste-nid09112021/


The one in which I...uh...didn't vote but plan to this sunday gave Juntos por el Cambio almost a 70%, followed by Millei with 13% and the kirchnerists with 12%

[Edu]

You can even see the resuls of the 6 polling places in Antarctica. I might meddle around with it later and see if there is anything funny anywhere in the country lol

[Edu]

Yep, the map has several errors with those dots unfortunately, but who can blame them? there are more than 15.000 dots lol

Sala's power collapsed as Fellner was replaced as governor by the anti-kirchnerista Gerardo Morales, amd many of her scandals, involving corruption, protecting an attempted murderer, threats and acts of violence against journalists, alleged connections to drug trafficking, and strongs authoritarian tendencies, came to light or got renewed attention. This, combined with Fellner's unpopularity, the open intra-PJ conflicts and lack of particularly good candidates made the PJ lose a lot of good will in Jujuy, and for national eclections I guess the FIT was seen as the next best thing for many Anti-Morales voters

My guess would be something like that. An extremely corrupt province with Milagro Sala being the head of a sort of "parallel state", all of which sort of came tumbling down made the people distrust the kirchnerists a lot more than other provinces. I wish to think that Formosa is experiencing/will experience something similar but I think I'm too optimistic.

Someone told me, not sure how much to put into it, but Córdoba became so antikirchnerists in 2013 after the police strikes that affected first the province and then almost the entire country. Those strikes basically left entire provinces in a state of anarchy where neighbours had to set up barricades and stuff to block streets and houses from criminals that were ransacking like viking raiders. Córdoba was the place where  the national conflict started so I'm guessing they were the ones that ended up being angrier. But again, that's what someone told me.

Also and idk why, since 2015 the FIT hasn't been successful getting even remotely consistent in Jujuy, performing well only on midterm elections going from 16-18% in the 2017 elections to  2-4% in 2019 and then 23% on the 2021 national paso, but only 7.5% on the provincial elections

Not sure what happened in 2019. In all of those elections, the FIT ran the same candidate, some guy named Alejandro Vilca, that from what I can see is also a part of a the indigenous Coya community, whihc may explain why he does so well in places like Humahuaca and Jujuy in general.

Also i'm sure Perón would be much more pissed at the fact that the left wing of the PJ (which he once referred to as "marxists and fagg*ts") is now in charge of his movement.

lol yeah, Perón would be livid that the "useful idiots" he promoted during his exile so he could create chaos to laid the foundations of his return to the country, and whom he promptly "disowned" once he got into power, have for the past 2 decades taken over a big chunk of the party apparatus.

[Edu]

lol, there is a school in Tupungato, Mendoza where the FIT won (Escuela Domingo Lucas Bombal). Only 4 of those votes were valid and while Frente de Todos and Compromiso Federal won 1 vote each, the winner was the FIT that had 2 votes. Hilariously it was because one guy voted for one of the PASO lists while another guy voted for the other. I like to imagine that these 2 persons know each other and have some sort of feud reminiscent of the Life of Brian scene of the Judean's People Front and the Popular Front of Judea


Interestingly in the polling place that is nearest my house (which is not the one I'm supposed to vote in), the results were JUntos por el Cambio just 48% and second was kirchnerists with 22%. The FIT didn't end up third but they did pretty well with almost 8%. Funny the disparity in just a couple of blocks.

The polling place I usually went at my last house in south Palermo gave Juntos por el Cambio 42%, then comes the kirchnerists at 29% and then milei at 12%. Probably one of the most kirchnerist friendly polling places in Palermo.

EPEP 146, Patiño, Paraguay Formosa: Estamos con Vos 100% (1 vote).

lmao, 2 people to control the ballots and run the election smoothly, only 1 voter. That must have been a really exciting day at the polling place. That town has like 600 inhabitants, what the hell? did just one guy bothered to vote?

[Edu]

Not really useful but whatever I have free time


Results in the northernmost populated town: El Angosto, Jujuy. Escuela N°369 (Kirchnerists 56%, Juntos por el Cambio 38%, FIT 6%)

In the southernmost town (not counting antactica and whatnot): Puerto Almanza, Tierra del Fuego. Uh, no polling places there, so I guess I just have to use the southernmost in Ushuaia which is the Colegio Nacional Ushuaia (Juntos por el Cambio 42%, kirchnerists 26%, Somos Fueguinos 22%, other bullcrap around 10%)

Easternmost town: Bernardo De Irigoyen, Misiones. Not sure which polling place is the easternmost one but I'm going with Escuela N°569 (Juntos por el Cambio 33%, Kirchnerists 28.3%, Frente de la Concordia which is the actual governing party there 28.23%)

Westernmost town: El Chaltén, Santa Cruz. Escuela Primaria N°59 (Juntos por el Cambio 32%, Kirchnerists 30%, SER 22%, FIT 14%)

[Edu]

There are 2 polling sites that share the same name according to the LN map, so I'm pretty sure that the one with only 1 vote is actually the Cuarto Oscuro Accesible (accesible voting booth, for people with disabilities or the elderly, unlike the regular voting booths and "mesas" you choose to go to one of this instead of the one you're assigned to) from the "larger school" and it's been reported incorrectly as being a completely different polling station

Haha, you might be right, in fact if you zoom at that dot you can see that there is a blue dot under the grey dot and then it just fuses itself in a weird color.

[Edu]

I have no idea if the last protocols were too strict or whatever but despite an increase in turnout, my polling station was almost empty. Between leaving my home, voting and returning to home it must have taken me 15-20 minutes.

I was going to vote for my usual candidate which is communist Luis Zamora, but I want the scum kirchnerists to end up 3rd here, so I ended up voting for Javier Milei lol

in 4 hours and 17 minutes or so the polls will close. We will apparently start geting results 3 hours after that and, 3 hours after that, at midnight, we'll probably know basically all the results.

Like I said before, I don't have my hopes up and I'll probably end the night drunk regardless of what happens

[Edu]

argentina.txt

lol

Turnout has increased significantly from the Paso, the turnout at 14:00 went from 36% to 44%

15:00 update, 51% turnout (43.5% on the Paso)

Apparently it ended up like 71% or 72% up from about 67% in the PASO. Still, it was one of the lowest turnouts for an election since 1983 (and maybe the worst? I don't know).

Kristina already said that she wasn't going to go to the Frente de Todos headquarters because she needs to rest after her surgery last week. Maybe she shouldn't have gone to the final campaign act a few days ago

Yesterday, I forgot like an idiot to buy my beers or wine, so I'm waiting the 1 hour and 10 minutes left before I can legally buy again. Just in time for the results!

[Edu]

I read that 46% of the results are already counted. guess we'll basically know almost every winner in the next 45 minutes or so

[Edu]

Looks like JxC is making some gains tonight

Doing better in some places, doing worse in others as far as I can see.

[Edu]

Tierra del Fuego, are you ok?

[Edu]

Also, every province is more than 80% reporting, most are 90%+ reporting and Formosa is still at 30%. Gift to Paraguay, please.

Are they still using the "Ley de lemas" there?

[Edu]

Tucumán hilariously close, but not enough for the overtaking.

Jorge "Jesus Christ" Capitanich really turned those sinners into voters!

[Edu]

Will the Rodriguez Saa feudal mafia be able to steal the province again or will they fail? Stay tuned to know!

San Juan is really close, whoever ends of on top will get 2 out of the 3 deputies. JxC not going to make it I believe.

[Edu]

5000 vote diference in San Juan, 8000 vote difference in Chaco and Salta, less than 20000 vote difference in Tucuman. So close, yet so far away.

[Edu]

I'm not sure about the popular vote but the seats are probably going to end with them winning slightly fewer than the PASO. FdT improved slightly in PBA, FIT flipped the 2nd seat in Jujuy and a few other marginal seats are close.

Best guess would be going from 120 to 118

Not sure how much it can change, but the PASO projections from La Nación two month ago was FdT 117 and JxC 116. Their projection right now is FdT 118 and JxC 117. So, uh, basically the same lol

[Edu]

I was expecting the mysterious box of late arriving overwhelmingly Peronist ballots falling off the back of a truck would happen in La Pampa but instead the award for "most suspicious election" goes to Formosa!

Formosa has always been it's special kind oh sh*thole

The amount of spending the government had to do for even marginal clawbacks is clearly unsustainable so I wouldn't be surprised if officials start jumping ship soon.

You really have to be here to just experience how much money they spent and how many populist government actions they took over the last couple of months. They still lost. Hell, even in the Province of Buenos Aires, the results will most certainly be the same as the PASO (16 deputies for JxC and 15 for FdT, unless I'm mistaken) regardless of how much they improved.

In Jujuy FIT not only won a seat but beat out FdT for second. However because of wacky D'Hondt distribution this actually helped the government by taking a seat away from Juntos.

Looking at updated results, FdT overtook them, just barely, like 1000 votes

In Tucuman the daughter of former governor/military dictator (not sure the official title) Antonio Dominigo Bussi won 11%, which is a lot considering how Tucuman was among the closest provinces this election

Actually Josefina Bussi is the grandaughter of the military governor. Her father is Ricardo Bussi, who is also running this year, but for the senate. Her father is running slightly ahead of her

In La Rioja UCeDe somehow won almost 10%. Pretty weird that such a feudal province (JxC only won 28%) would have a liberal surge but I won't question it

La Rioja has been weird these past few years. Peronist stronghold, then in 2013, the opposition did great and in 2015 Macri almost won it and Cambienos won the legislative elections. They also won the deputies and the senate elections in 2017. Now they are fighting for 2nd place with Formosa as the most kirchnerist province.

[Edu]

Nationally it seems that both JxC and FdT improved about 2.5%. FdT closer to 3% and JxC closer to 2%.

FIT barely improved but still, good result from them.


Province of Buenos Aires is getting closer because of the metro area. most likely not enough for the FdT to change the situation.