Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14

[Estrella]

I haven't paid attention to Atgentinian politics for a while and ignore what's going on lately, but anyway I wouldn't say the UCR base of support is comparable to that of the Peronists. The UCR ceased to be competitive in presidential elections since Fernando de la Rúa fled in helicopter from the presidential palace. In fact, the main contenders to the Kirchners in the period between 2003 and 2015 were not UCR candidates - the old party even endorsed the peronist Roberto Lavagna in 2007. I think the UCR has been largely replaced by the PRO as the main non-peronist party, especially in Buenos Aires and the largest urban centres. However, the UCR still retains a base of support in some provinces and these local machines are its main asset within the opposition coalition. Being somewhat remarkable,  by no means that base of power in the provinces threatens peronist hegemony. Currently the UCR has three provincial governors: Gustavo Valdes (Corrientes), Gerardo Morales (Jujuy) and Rodolfo Suárez (Mendoza).

Question: is the old Socialist Party completely disappeared?

They seem to be one of the component of what the poster called "Federal Peronism".

Indeed, they're a part of Roberto Lavagna's nominally centrist Consenso Federal, along with:
- Partido Demócrata Cristiano, formerly a fairly important party, supporting both Peronists and non-Peronists, these days not doing much more than obsessing over abortion
- Unión Celeste y Blanco, the personal vehicle of right-winger Francisco de Narváez, an ally of Macri before it was cool
- Libres del Sur, a left-wing party with a strong emphasis on social progressivism, human rights and justice for people killed by the military dictatorship
- Partido Federal, the empty shell of a party formerly led by Francisco Manrique, a far-right coupist navy officer and minister in Alejandro Lanusse's military junta
- Partido Socialista Auténtico, formerly a vehicle for left-wing filmmaker and presidential candidate Pino Solanas
- Partido Tercera Posicón, a personal vehicle for the wife of astoundingly corrupt trade union leader Luís Barrionuevo. Peak Wikipedia infobox moment: their ideology is listed as Third Position vcnjenfvnfjkdkldf
- Cruzada Renovadora, an ideology-free local party in San Juan
- some other jokes, personality cults and wallet inspectors

"Sir, when a man is tired of London Argentine politics, he is tired of life; for there is in London Argentine politics all that life can afford."
— Samuel Johnson

[Estrella]

TN says JxC is leading by 20 in capital, Todos ahead by 8 in BA province, 67% turnout.

[Estrella]

[Estrella]

I just noticed that Frente de Todos logo, election posters etc. use the same font as official government websites. Peak Peronism right there. L'État, c'est moi.

[Estrella]

For the sake of our currency, I hope the difference between FDT and JXC in Buenos Aires isn't too big (i'm hoping something like 44% to 36%). Upwards of 10 points and it's devaluation time.

Not election-related, but what's the difference between where dólar oficial and dólar blue are used? Like, if I wanted to exchange money at the airport, what rate would they give? How about an Argentinian going to the bank to exchange their pay into dollars?

[Estrella]

How bad is this for the Ks compared to 2009 and 2013?. At first glance it seems similar to 2009 results.

Very.

Those two elections happened after six and ten years of kirchnerismo in power and in both cases, opposition was splintered between dissident Peronists, centre-left non-Peronists, the remains of UCR, PRO, local barons and various alliances of these groups. What happened now was that a government that has only been in power for two years was defeated by an united opposition alliance, with local barons and dissident Peronists weaker than ever. 2009 and 2013 were, in a way, protest votes for whatever flavor of opposition was available; now, Juntos is a clear alternative and it will be very hard for Alberto to do what Cristina managed to do in 2011 and what Scioli almost managed to do in 2015.

In conclusion, voters' message to the government was this:

[Estrella]

So Milei is pro-life?

Socially liberal libertarians don't exist in the real world, so yes, he is.

[Estrella]

We know that the libertarian cadres are basically far-right on Social Issues™, but what about their voters?

[Estrella]

This sounds weird, but I just spent like three hours browsing that map. I couldn't help it, I love going through these micro-level results in places I've never heard of. Random things:

Hipólito Yrigoyen Primary School, Río Gallegos: Cambia Santa Cruz 57%, Frente de Todos 27%. Pablo VI Primary School, Río Gallegos: Cambia Santa Cruz 56%, Frente de Todos 20%. Why these two polling stations? They're both about five minutes' walk from the Néstor Kirchner Mausoleum.

Veintiocho de Noviembre: SER 40%, Todos 35%. Río Turbio: SER 44%, Todos 32%. Paso Dorotea: SER 45%, Todos 35%. Perón will be turning in his grave when he finds out his official successors can't even get all coal miners - the only coal miners in Argentina! - to vote for them.

FIT is fairly strong in Jujuy and Salta, but I have no idea why. In the former, they're very strong in some places. 77 Bernardino Rivadavia, Humahuaca: FIT 38%. 442 Maestro Ricardo Vilca, Humahuaca: FIT 37%. 301 Australia, Ocumazo: FIT 43%. What.

Escuela Secundaria 24: Todos 70%, Juntos 13%. In Caballito, right in the middle of Buenos Aires city, surrounded by 40-60% Juntos territory. Wasn't sure what's going on here. The area looks pretty nice, judging by Streetview. Thought I'd check out the telegrama (the official vote tally sheet), just in case it's actually a mistake... and it is: the header says distrito Buenos Aires, sección electoral Avellaneda. Which explains it, but also wtf.

Escuela Provincial 122, Trelew: Juntos 48%, Todos 17%, Chubut Somos Todos 14%, FIT 10%. It's two blocks from Ysgol yr Hendre, and closest I can get to a Welsh-language school. There are several bilingual Spanish-Welsh schools, but they're all private (and hence don't get polling stations, or so I assume) or too small. I don't think the results would've been any different from others, but it'd've been cool to see how an ysgol Gymraeg votes

EPEP 146, Patiño, Paraguay Formosa: Estamos con Vos 100% (1 vote).

There is exactly one JxC polling station in the province of Santiago del Estero outside the capital city, and it gave 95% to Juntos - yes, 95%, except... it didn't. I checked the telegrama out of curiosity, and it turns out that 1) it's actually right over the border in Catamarca 2) it's about 50-50 Juntos-Todos 3) the presidente de mesa, some guy called Raul Herrera, was too lazy to fill out like half of the form, including the total number of votes, which is probably where the fxckup comes from. What were you doing, Raul? ಠ_ಠ

[Estrella]

Veintiocho de Noviembre: SER 40%, Todos 35%. Río Turbio: SER 44%, Todos 32%. Paso Dorotea: SER 45%, Todos 35%. Perón will be turning in his grave when he finds out his official successors can't even get all coal miners - the only coal miners in Argentina! - to vote for them.

I looked at the 2019 map (which might also interest you), and there doesn't seem to have been any significant change in the peronist vote share, it's just that this time around there were two lists vying for that electorate, the official one as you say and the dissident one from Claudio Vidal's SER. And from what i understand Vidal is only at odds with the local PJ, he still supports the national government.
Also i'm sure Perón would be much more pissed at the fact that the left wing of the PJ (which he once referred to as "marxists and fagg*ts") is now in charge of his movement.

Thanks! Very interesting.

[Estrella]

I was going to vote for my usual candidate which is communist Luis Zamora, but I want the scum kirchnerists to end up 3rd here, so I ended up voting for Javier Milei lol

argentina.txt