Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14, Open Primaries Sept. 12
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Author Topic: Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14, Open Primaries Sept. 12  (Read 3702 times)
Ⓐnarchy in the USSR!
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« Reply #75 on: September 30, 2021, 07:07:56 PM »

So the situation is still evolving but some things have become clear.

First off, the collapse of Todos was completely unforeseen by the government, and they somehow thought they were on the verge of victory right until the votes started coming in. The most dramatic collapse occurred in the poor and working class suburbs that constitute the core of support, where in many districts they received fewer than half the votes of 2019.

As a result the knives came out and after intense conflict between the conservative Peronists governing the regions, the President's moderate supporters and the leftist Kirchnerists it appears the latter prevailed. Most of the new ministers are from that side of the movement and it looks like the plan from now until November is to loosen COVID restrictions, crank the printing press and hand out benefits to bring turnout up. The gamble is that since moderation failed to bring out the 2017 voters of Massa and Kirchner so going more openly with the latter might at least manage to match or beat her 2017 performance, which would still be an improvement on the current result.

Or, the perception of weakness could actually cause the government to fall even further. The President's unfavourability ranges anywhere from 71% (worse than Macri's approval) to as high as 85%, which might be close to Fernando de la Rúa approval when he was forced to flee angry mobs in a helicopter. Kirchner's favourability is no better, and voters might take their bribes and vote for opposition parties anyway. So there's a pretty big potential swing either way for FdT depending on how the coming months go.
 
On the other side of the aisle Larreta is, at least on the surface, in the strongest political position he's ever been in. His leader swap appears to have worked, or at least to have not backfired, and his likely opposition completely collapsed.

However, ironically the weakness of the government could hurt him too. JxC is heavily defined by being the only viable alternative to a Peronist government, but if Peronism collapses then the urgency to vote for the broad coalition over parties more representative of people's ideological positions can decline too. This success has arguably led to enflamed tensions within the coalition between Larreta, Macri's supporters and the intransigent right wing hawks of Patricia Bullrich, who has increasingly made public overtures towards Milei.

The Leftists of FIT-U had a good PASO, and thanks to their strong organization letting them run in most provinces they came out as the third force in terms of votes. In both CABA and PBA they managed to improve enough to almost certainly gain seats and in several provinces they had good performances, most notably Jujuy where they pulled off a strong 3rd place with just under 25% of the vote. While they might be stereotyped as college students they're clearly capable of expanding their appeal to the leftists of both major parties with strong local campaigns. However, they're plagued by a lack of strong leaders with national appeal; del Caño is a meme and doesn't exactly seem like the type to lead a national movement. Still, if the leftists in the government become disillusioned then some might migrate over and provide some talent and heft.

In CABA, one of the best nominal results for JxC, the situation for transfers between now and the general election is actually among the worst. Vidal won a commanding lead over Santoro, though the latter led one of the few government lists to improve since 2017, but Milei's overperformance is extremely unfavourable. Where before many assumed he would fall short of his polling numbers and he kept expectations low, now he's set the goal of surpassing Todos to take second place, and the crazy thing is that a lot of people, including those who support the government, think that it isn't impossible.

Many of the factors against Milei are now in his favour; he's proven that he has a strong base of support that will actually turn out, Santoro's numbers aren't likely to grow much and he seems to draw nearly all of his support in the villas from the government, so it's hard to argue he's splitting the vote. Just trivially adding the votes of Lopez Murphy and the minor right-of-center lists that fell short of the cutoff would be enough, though of course plenty of those voters won't go for Milei for one reason or another. If nothing dramatic happens I'd guess he pulls around 17%, but with strong campaigning it's anyone's guess.

On that note, his rallies have only been growing. A few days ago he held a rally at Plaza Larrazábal in Liniers, one of his stronger neighbourhoods in the southeast, and despite only giving a few hours notice several hundred people showed up.



He recently announced he's going to give economic lectures throughout the city. The first was at Parque Saavedra and had pretty good turnout.



The TN debate will be on October 13 featuring María Eugenia Vidal (JxC), Leandro Santoro (FdT), Javier Milei (LLA) and Myriam Bregman (FIT). The PBA debate will be on the 20th.

In news from the other provinces, Formosa will have a united opposition as the leader of the third force there endorsed Juntos. Todos won less than 50% and theoretically could lose first here, which would be a huge moral blow, but really it doesn't matter that much because there are two seats that'll almost certainly go 1-1 regardless.
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Ⓐnarchy in the USSR!
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« Reply #76 on: October 02, 2021, 12:40:20 PM »

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Alex
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« Reply #77 on: October 02, 2021, 11:23:09 PM »

So the situation is still evolving but some things have become clear.

First off, the collapse of Todos was completely unforeseen by the government, and they somehow thought they were on the verge of victory right until the votes started coming in. The most dramatic collapse occurred in the poor and working class suburbs that constitute the core of support, where in many districts they received fewer than half the votes of 2019.

As a result the knives came out and after intense conflict between the conservative Peronists governing the regions, the President's moderate supporters and the leftist Kirchnerists it appears the latter prevailed. Most of the new ministers are from that side of the movement and it looks like the plan from now until November is to loosen COVID restrictions, crank the printing press and hand out benefits to bring turnout up. The gamble is that since moderation failed to bring out the 2017 voters of Massa and Kirchner so going more openly with the latter might at least manage to match or beat her 2017 performance, which would still be an improvement on the current result.


The more conservative peronistas within Todos also had one pretty big victory by getting, the extremely anti-abortion, reticent on sex-ed, pro-Church and definitely not progressive on security/justice/law and order issues, former governor of the northwestern (read: socially conservative) province of Tucumán, Juan Manzur as the new Chief of the Cabinet
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xelas81
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« Reply #78 on: October 03, 2021, 08:36:23 AM »

So Milei is pro-life?
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Estrella
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« Reply #79 on: October 03, 2021, 06:15:13 PM »


Socially liberal libertarians don't exist in the real world, so yes, he is.
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Ⓐnarchy in the USSR!
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« Reply #80 on: October 05, 2021, 10:09:43 PM »

The latest poll from CABA confirms the trend of the past several polls, where Vidal leads comfortably while Santoro and Milei battle for 2nd and Bregman sits right at the deputy threshold with the support of the small fry Leftists (except Zamora).



However, what distinguishes this poll from the others is that it bothers to break down results by Commune, and surprisingly the former Peronist strongholds, Commune 8 (Lugano, Soldati) and Commune 9 (Mataderos, Parque Avellenada, Liniers), are three way dead heat races. Santoro leads the former and Milei (!) is ahead in the latter.





It appears Vidal generally held her support and prevented much of Lopez Murphy's support from leaving in the northern neighbourhoods like Recoleta but in the southeast those votes (plus Rubinstein and the parties that fell under the treshold) have all gone straight to LLA. She's generally done a very poor job of integrating liberals besides making the occasional sound about onerous taxes and regulations. Of course it's hard for her to push too hard because in many cases those very impositions come from her own party's city government but she could at least try to incorporate Lopez Murphy; there was a campaign photo where the guy who won 11% of the vote and a high place on the list was hilariously hidden in a corner like it was "Where's Waldo Lopez Murphy?"

The alarm bells at La Cámpora are going off, though, as they just realized Milei hurts them as much as if not more than Vidal, so Santoro has switched from ignoring the former to calling him a threat to democracy. It would definitely be a threat to the dignity of the city's current opposition if they lost Mataderos to Milei, let alone getting knocked down to third place. If his appeal happened to extend into the suburbs then it could be even worse than that in 2023.

For Milei's part, he's transitioned to a more conciliatory tone, particularly towards both anti-K Peronists and Bullrich's hawks and so far it's worked out for him, doubling his floor and ceiling to around 12% and 31% respectively. Of course there's still plenty of campaign to go for his support to collapse but right now he's at the absolute limit of where he was expected to be before the PASO and his list is so thin that he's right at the threshold of sending a high school girl to the city legislature.

For the other provinces, in Jujuy Vilca and FIT-U have taken second, a great achievement for them and a very bad sign for the government.



While in Formosa the opposition is convincingly ahead, a devastating blow to morale even if the seats will come out the same regardless. If Formosa isn't safe for the government then no province is.

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Edu
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« Reply #81 on: October 06, 2021, 02:06:48 AM »

We still have more than a month to go, so of course, Argentina being Argentina, anything could happen, but at this point the odds of the government losing even worse than last month are greater than them gaining whatever votes via clientelism.

There was a poll I read about recently that has Fernandez at like 16% approval lmao
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Ⓐnarchy in the USSR!
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« Reply #82 on: October 13, 2021, 01:44:12 PM »

CABA debate tonight. By random draw Bregman gets the first opening statement and Milei gets the final closing statement. It might turn into Milei vs everyone else but Vidal doesn't want that at all so I'm curious to see how she does.
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philormus
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« Reply #83 on: October 13, 2021, 07:11:56 PM »

Speaking of Milei, he showed up in Vox's weekend rally:



Dime con quién andas, y te diré quién eres...
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BigSerg
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« Reply #84 on: October 13, 2021, 09:23:35 PM »

It looks like Miley is going to win the debate
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Ⓐnarchy in the USSR!
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« Reply #85 on: October 13, 2021, 11:36:12 PM »

So I'm not going to do a complete writeup but the debate was a mess. Santoro was competent enough but he wasn't able to stand out much because when he tried to set up an attack on Vidal on security policy he was suddenly blindsided by Bregman. Without the ability to setup he was reduced to "Ah, but Vidal/Milei/Macri"

Then whenever Milei so much as opened his mouth Bregman would come in calling him a fascist, accusing him of interrupting her and yelling over her because he hates women as she interrupted and yelled over him. This peaked in the one on one section, where for reasons beyond me the two were paired up and the latter couldn't even wait for Milei to finish his opening statement without interrupting. For some reason he also steadfastly refused to attack his opponents directly which to me was a bit like trying to box without hitting the other guy in the face. Still, his prepared statements were solid and in his exchanges there were both moments his detractors will say are disqualifying (mostly on social issues) and where his supporters would say were strong so it's hard to say whether he won or lost compared to anyone else. Some people had ludicrous expectations of him that were disappointed, though, and he definitely could have damaged Vidal and Santoro by going for the throat instead of attacking "la casta" in the abstract.

Vidal managed to mostly avoid trouble thanks to Bregman derailing prepared attacks on her as effectively as a paid agent. She ran a harder line message than usual and almost seemed like she was copying Milei. I'd question her sincerity and frankly so should have Milei, but for whatever reason he didn't and so her new liberal facade remained unchallenged. At one point Santoro managed to get a crack in that Bregman didn't interrupt and Vidal was forced to dodge with weak attacks on the national government. If she'd faced any serious pressure I think she'd have collapsed but since she only had to worry about relatively predictable Santoro (and really only during the one on one section) she came out the most unscathed of any candidate. If you think all she had to do was not screw up then she won, though I didn't think she did much to convince people who didn't vote for her the first time around besides perhaps a few Lopez Murphy voters who just wanted to hear the words "tax cuts" more often.

I'd guess Santoro is the biggest loser despite not doing all that bad if only because he was the most forgettable and was squeezed between Bregman and Milei without being able to land a good blow on Vidal. Bregman I found intensely irritating but I could see how some Kirchnerists might think she totally exposed Milei as fascist woman hating Jair J. Videla. I doubt much changes either way, though. Perhaps Milei's momentum is somewhat blunted, considering in the latest poll he actually passed Santoro and some people acted like he was an unstoppable force but otherwise I don't think a lot changes
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philormus
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« Reply #86 on: October 14, 2021, 12:03:02 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 12:41:05 AM by philormus »

I came away with a different impression

Vidal made the best use of the debate, she was calm and prepared, attacked only Santoro and responded well to his attacks, and was clear in her message: "Vote for us so that we'll stop the government in congress. Also we are in favour of fiscal conservatism, but in a sensible way" *winks at camera*. Unauthentic and boring, yes, but she's already won, all she has to do is make sure those López Murphy voters go with her and not the guy to her right with the weird hairdo.

Santoro i thought was fine. Didn't have any gaffes and stuck mostly to his "i'm a kirchnerist, but i'm also a moderate, i'll defend my government but can sometimes disagree with them (did i mention i'm a moderate?)" shtick.
Tried to focus on local issues, wich doesn't make much sense since this is a national election, but then again it's easier for him to criticise the local opposition government in CABA than to defend the national administration of his own party. Given the difficult task he had, i think he came out largely unscathed.

Bregman went with the same speech as always: austerity, feminism, the youth, the capitalists, the IMF, we the workers, etc, etc, etc. Nothing new, but at this point they've probably given up on converting anyone, and were most likely trying to maybe win any Zamora voter watching the debate and not seeing him there. Went hard on Milei wich was fun to watch, certainly the most energetic one.

Milei was the worst, seemed unfocused and nervous at points. Referenced a bunch of obscure economic concepts no one in the audience would understand and responded to attacks with "fallacy, that's a fallacy" (very libertarian, i know).
When the others ridiculed him for not believing in climate change his response was some nonsese about the world actually getting colder, said he wasn't vaccinated because "he doesn't trust vaccines have been properly tested" or some bs like that, admited to having once worked for a general convicted for crimes against humanity in the last dictatorship (his excuse being that at the time he hadn't been convicted yet), and refused to answer whether an 11 year old pregnant girl should have an abortion, instead going on an explanation of why life begins at conception, that he supports the freedom to live above anything else and abortions should only be allowed in cases of risk to the mother's health cause "that's a conflict of property" (??)
All in all yeah, i see why he's so popular among teenage edgelords.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #87 on: October 14, 2021, 02:00:19 AM »


Socially liberal libertarians don't exist in the real world, so yes, he is.

Lmao say it!

Libertarians = Conservatives who happen to be more passionate about Economic right-wing policies than Socially conservative ones. You change how much they care about specific issues but the positions are still the same.
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Ⓐnarchy in the USSR!
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« Reply #88 on: October 14, 2021, 03:13:27 PM »


If we were judging this like an academic debate competition I'd say it goes Vidal then Santoro but this was a political debate and the goals of the candidates weren't uniform. If the 2019 debate had been a competition then Espert would have been the overwhelming winner but it didn't work out that way at the polls.

The former only needed to avoid blowing up and to look reasonable and in that she succeeded. I just think her pivot to being a liberal is untenable in the long run and if she'd been pressed hard the facade would have collapsed, but she wasn't so it was a win for her. The latter, on the other hand, is closer to getting pushed down to third than taking first even if we only consider the PASO and ignore the polls so he had to actually motivate his support yet he was easily the most forgettable in the debate. Attacking the provincial government is fair when your opponent's campaign is practically an arm of the provincial government but you need more than that for a breakthrough.

Milei took plenty of controversial positions that may be unacceptable to the majority of voters in CABA but none were new. His stances on abortion, climate change and even Bussi have all had plenty of coverage and attacks up to this point, some even before the PASO, and they've had next to no impact on his polling. Simply put, his core of support comes from angry anti-systemic working class youths who really hate lockdowns and high taxes and my guess is the overwhelming majority don't care in the slightest about those issues one way or the other. If they weren't disqualifying weeks ago then they probably won't be now.

Debates are shaped by the clips produced and shared after the fact and there are plenty of both for Milei. People who hate him or who at least wouldn't have voted for him will say he did terribly and post him arguing about abortion or climate change. People who love him will post "MILEI LEAVES COMMUNIST FOAMING AT THE MOUTH" (no I'm not making that title up) and argue that the moderators were biased. But in the end everyone is talking about him instead of Vidal and sometimes bad press is better than no press.

Still, this probably won't change much either way.
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kaoras
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« Reply #89 on: October 14, 2021, 04:01:07 PM »

Speaking of Milei, he showed up in Vox's weekend rally:

Dime con quién andas, y te diré quién eres...


Oh great, the chances of him meeting up with Kast is basically 100%. I wonder if Milei also want emergency powers to incarcerate leftists lol
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BigSerg
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« Reply #90 on: October 14, 2021, 04:45:53 PM »

Speaking of Milei, he showed up in Vox's weekend rally:

Dime con quién andas, y te diré quién eres...


Oh great, the chances of him meeting up with Kast is basically 100%. I wonder if Milei also want emergency powers to incarcerate leftists lol
i wish Smiley
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philormus
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« Reply #91 on: October 14, 2021, 06:37:30 PM »

Speaking of Milei, he showed up in Vox's weekend rally:

Dime con quién andas, y te diré quién eres...


Oh great, the chances of him meeting up with Kast is basically 100%.


 
I wonder if Milei also want emergency powers to incarcerate leftists lol

I'll just leave this here



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Estrella
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« Reply #92 on: October 14, 2021, 06:42:28 PM »

We know that the libertarian cadres are basically far-right on Social Issues™, but what about their voters?
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jman123
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« Reply #93 on: October 14, 2021, 06:54:07 PM »

If JxC wins resoundingly next month would that put Mayor of Buenos Aires Horacio Rodriguez Larreta in a strong position to contest Fernandez for the Presidency in 2023? I get the feel he has presidential ambitions.
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Alex
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« Reply #94 on: October 14, 2021, 07:18:38 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 07:48:12 PM by Alex »

We know that the libertarian cadres are basically far-right on Social Issues™, but what about their voters?

Milei is largely a protest vote for people who consider than JxC isn't doing enough against the kirchneristas, so their voters are a mixed bag, Including on social issues
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Alex
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« Reply #95 on: October 14, 2021, 07:19:45 PM »

If JxC wins resoundingly next month would that put Mayor of Buenos Aires Horacio Rodriguez Larreta in a strong position to contest Fernandez for the Presidency in 2023? I get the feel he has presidential ambitions.

Yes, and it's well known by everyone in Argentina that he has presidential ambitoons, and he is term-limited as mayor
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jman123
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« Reply #96 on: October 14, 2021, 08:42:54 PM »

If JxC wins resoundingly next month would that put Mayor of Buenos Aires Horacio Rodriguez Larreta in a strong position to contest Fernandez for the Presidency in 2023? I get the feel he has presidential ambitions.

Yes, and it's well known by everyone in Argentina that he has presidential ambitoons, and he is term-limited as mayor
barring major changes, I think it looks as though Larreta , or at least a JxC candidate is already front runner for the presidency if Fernandez continues his collapse. What other people do you think will throw their hats into the ring in 2023?
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