Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

No official results but reports that Milei got 11%. A big result for him especially since he's likely to gain votes in the general and he doesn't need much more to win a second seat pulling Vicky Villaruel over the finish line too. Also a bad sign for Santoro assuming that 20% lead for JxC is true.

EDIT: Supposedly FdT is getting crushed in the early count for PBA:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1437214843870797825

Not sure if it's accurate or not but it'd be a downright horrific result for the government. Of course this could just be the interior vote in which case it's merely very bad since the suburbs will surely give the VTP some room to breathe.

[kaoras]

So, how does the Left do in the Conurbano? Because I find hilarious that they are beating Esper in Buenos Aires Province, but I guess the Conurbano still isn't out.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The first official results have now been published on the official website, https://www.resultados.gob.ar/ , with over 60% of the votes counted

Córdoba (88.38% counted)
Senate:
Juntos: 47.8%, 775,413 votes
  -Cambiemos Juntos (Luis Juez-Carmen Álvarez): 57.44%
  -Juntos por Córdoba (Mario Negri- Soher El Sukaria): 36.19%
Hacemos por Córdoba 24.5%
Todos 10.97%
FIT 4.22%
   -PTS: 51.5%, MST: 27.7%, PO: 20.72%
Unión Popular Federal 2.13%
La Libertad Avanza 1.58%

Pretty similar results for the diputados lists in Cordoba
 

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Haven't checked everything but Chaco is 92% counted and it's 44% JxC to 36% FdT. Entre Rios is 97% counted at 52% JxC 29.5% FdT

This basically looks like a catastrophically bad election for the government, worse than 2017 in most ways. There are a few bright spots like gains in La Rioja but otherwise they're set to lose a ton in the general. They're probably panicking in the Pink House right now

EDIT: In CABA at 86% counted the results are:

JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO: 48%

JUNTOS PODEMOS MÁS: 68% (~33% total)

REPUBLICANOS: 23% (~11% total)

ADELANTE CIUDAD: 8% (~4% total)

FRENTE DE TODOS: 25%

LA LIBERTAD AVANZA: 14%

FRENTE DE IZQUIERDA Y DE TRABAJADORES - UNIDAD: 6% (Bregman crushed the internal so I won't bother with the details)

AUTODETERMINACIÓN Y LIBERTAD: 3%

Unless the last bit to be counted is dramatically different everything fell within expectations except for a slight overperformance from the various Leftists and a significant overperformance from Milei. If the former aren't stymied by the comical degree of factionalism among the minor left wing parties then they should have an easy path to a seat for Bregman in the city.

I underestimated Milei but intentionally, because I try to always go against my own biases. But with this result he's clearly the story of the night with 2 seats in hand. It's also notable that his support, unlike Espert's, isn't just from upper middle class Juntos splitters but from a cross section of all Argentine society. He won 15% in Villa 31 of all places so he's clearly struck something where Espert failed.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Ciudad de Buenos Aires (84.51% of the votes counted)

Juntos 48.36%
  -Juntos Podemos Más (Vidal): 68.29%
  -Republicanos (Lopez Murphy) 23.44%
  -Adelante Ciudad (Rubinstein) 8.26%
An overall weak result for JxC, but still clearly dominant, clearly debilitated by Milei's performance, with a fairly strong performance by Lopez Murphy

Todos 24.7%
A week result for Todos, which was only able to keep their traditional hardcore base

La Libertad Avanza 13.67%
An amazing result for Milei, who should be able to get 2 or maybe even 3 diputados

FIT 6.2%
  -PTS+PO+IS: 86.3, MST: 13.7
The Left has decent chances of getting Bregman as a diputada

AyL 2.6%
Maybe they can get one city legislator

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

So, how does the Left do in the Conurbano? Because I find hilarious that they are beating Esper in Buenos Aires Province, but I guess the Conurbano still isn't out.

They're having a decent result in the GBA,  so far with 55% of the votes counted, theyre getting 6% (80% del Caño -20% Bodart) while Espert is on 5%, on the interior of the province theyre both tied both pretty close to 5% each (with the same result on thw Left's primary)

[Edu]

Haven't checked everything but Chaco is 92% counted and it's 44% JxC to 36% FdT. Entre Rios is 97% counted at 52% JxC 29.5% FdT

This basically looks like a catastrophically bad election for the government, worse than 2017 in most ways. There are a few bright spots like gains in La Rioja but otherwise they're set to lose a ton in the general. They're probably panicking in the Pink House right now

Butchering in the senate too, compared with 2015

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Buenos Aires Province(70.32% of the votes counted)

Juntos 38.32%
  - Es Juntos (Santilli) 59.35%
  - Dar el paso (Manes) 40.64%
 A good result for the main opposition alliance, with a stronger performance by Manes than what anyone was expecting

Todos 33.52%
 Yeah, this was a bad election for the kirchnerista list, were they were expecting a 5% victory

FIT 5.14%

Avanza Libertad 4.84%
Espert's calm personality clearly got a weaker result than the more chaotic and boisterous Milei, but still a pretty good result for the libertarians, and a lot better than what they got 2 years ago

Vamos con Vos 3.7%
A much weaker result than what Randazzo, or Lavagna's candidate, got in previous elections, certainly weakened by his gaffes and  weird ads in recent weeks

+Valores 1.44%
Hotton got the most votes out of the many ultra conservative lists, she may get above the 1.5% Paso threshold, but thats about it

[Edu]

Kirchnerists under 45% in La Matanza lol

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In national news, President Fernández's birthday scandal has evolved as more pictures came out showing him and his cabinet (most flagrantly Massa) flagrantly ignoring their own rules of social distancing, restricting numbers at social gatherings and mask wearing. The image of both the President and the government has been hit hard; disapproval hit a record high of 70.8%.

The scandal certainy damaged his image, but not "70% disaproval" kind of damage, not even Macri has those numbers (and he's far and away the most unpopular argentine politician). A good reminder of how bad polling is in this country.

Well this sure looks like a 70% disapproval sort of election. FdT couldn't even win a majority in Formosa of all places.

Granted it probably had more to do with the inflation and unemployment then that stupid picture but that was really just the cherry on top.

Buenos Aires (70.32% of the votes counted)

Juntos 38.32%
  - Es Juntos (Santilli) 59.35%
  - Dar el paso (Manes) 40.64%
 A good result for the main opposition alliance, with a stronger performance by Manes than what anyone was expecting

Todos 33.52%
 Yeah, this was a bad election for the kirchnerista list, were they were expecting a 5% victory

FIT 5.14%

Avanza Libertad 4.84%
Espert's calm personality clearly got a weaker result than the more chaotic and boisterous Milei, but still a pretty good result for the libertarians, and a lot better than what they got 2 years ago

Vamos con Vos 3.7%
A much weaker result than what Randazzo, or Lavagna's candidate, got in previous elections, certainly weakened by his gaffes and  weird ads in recent weeks

+Valores 1.44%
Hotton got the most votes out of the many ultra conservative lists, she may get above the 1.5% Paso threshold, but thats about it

Randazzo's campaign was so bad that it earned him negative voters. Just saying "I'm a Peronist but I hate the government, vote for me!" would have been enough to pick up angry Todos voters but its like Fernández had a bug in his brain making him campaign like a crazy person.

Espert did better than last time but I'd sure hope he'd do better in a proportional election where strategic voting is less relevant and his goal is 3% as opposed to victory. He's still safely past qualification, Piparo probably has better than even odds thanks to migration from the other right wing alternatives and if he's lucky he might even be able to get a third. But I'm almost certain Milei would have done better, maybe not as well as in CABA but clearly passion and radicalism beat moderation in breaking through with the poor and working class.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Provinces that voted Senators in this election

Catamarca:
Todos 51.43% - JxC 31.23
(2-1/=)

Chubut: 
JxC 39.66% - 26.11% - Chubut somos todos 13.28% (local peronistas) - FIT 9.66% [/color]
(2 - 1 <- 3 [there was a ChubutST senator who moved to Todos])

Corrientes: ECO+VC 58.8% - Todos 34.45% (2 - 1  <-FDT: 2-JxC: 1)

Córdoba:
JxC 47.8% - Hacemos por Córdoba 24.44% (local peronistas) - Todos 10.91%
(2-1 <- 2 - 1 , with an Hacemos->Todos swap in-between)

La Pampa:
JxC 48.82 - Todos 38.16%
(2 - 1  <- 2- 1)

Mendoza:
JxC 43.12% - 25.19
(2 - 1 / =)

Santa Fe:
JxC: 40.14%-Todos 29.86% - Frente Amplio Progresista 10.87
(2-1 <- 2- 1)

Tucumán:
Todos: 48.7% - Todos 35.24%
(2 - 1 / =)

A strong defeat for the national government on the Senate, and with this reaults they'll lose their majority

Todos: 35 - JxC: 31 - independent peronistas: 6

Right now, at 23:32 Todos is having their first offical act, several hours after Juntos, Milei and Espert, "We must've done something wrong if the people didn't accompany us with their votes" and "We haven't done enough for the people" were some of the first sentences on Alberto's speech, and 10 minutes after that their act is over with no else speaking(LOL)

If anyone wants to follow the election county-by-county La Nación, as is tradition, has the best interactive maps for this https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/resultados-de-las-paso-2021-el-mapa-en-tiempo-real-nid13092021/#

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

A map of the election, and it's absolutely brutal for the government. JxC won in places Macri couldn't at his most popular. This just might be a total political realignment

[Edu]

This just might be a total political realignment

I share your happiness over today's results, but let's not get excited lol

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Diputados (acording to La Nación's projection)
Todos and allies: 117 (49 seats on this election) <- 126
JxC: 116 (61) <- 115
FIT:4 (4) <- 2
La Libertad Avanza+Avanza Libertad 4(4) <- 0
Others  (many of them being independent peronistas) 16 (9) <- 14

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So just briefly looking at the geography of the CABA. (here's the source if you want to see for yourself)

 Vidal easily won all the communes except the southernmost Commune 8, which went to Santoro, whose best communes were in the south plus the central Communes 5 and 15. Basically the expected distribution of a bad but not completely terrible result for Todos (ie. the demographic bases of support for both parties haven't changed much)

Lopez Murphy did best (15-20%) in the wealthier communes in the north and along the coast, specifically 1, 2, 12, 13 and 14.  He did considerably worse (1-5%) in the poorer communes in the south and center of the city. Pretty consistent with your standard "European liberal" sort of result.

Milei's performance was fairly even across the city, but interestingly was actually highest (over 14%) in the working class, southwestern Communes 7, 8, 10 and peaking at 15% in Commune 9. Lowest results were just over 12% in the central Communes 5, 6 and 15. Base of support looks more similar to that of right wing populists than liberals but most resembles those general "anti-corruption" parties in Eastern Europe. Of course usually those parties are purely personalist and very vague whereas Milei is intensely ideological and very specific. Challenges a lot of stereotypes.

Myriam Bregman managed 6.5% to 8% in the central and to a lesser extent southeastern communes, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 15. She did worst (4-5.5%) in the northeastern communes 2, 13, 14 and interestingly below average in the southeast. So basically a mirror image of Milei's results, where his worst communes are her best and vice versa. In Commune 15 the combined vote of all the leftists would be slightly higher than his result but everywhere else it isn't close. To my ignorant eye it looks like they were indeed both fighting over protest votes. My first guess was UBA but that (and the other universities for that matter) is in Commune 1, where Bregman did better than the other coastal communes. I leave it to a Porteño to explain why the geography of the battle for 3rd looked so different from that of the battle for 1st because I'd love to see some explanations from someone who knows better

As a bonus, I looked at Cordoba.

The topline results were about as expected and pretty boring but the battle of the lower parties to cross the 1.5% qualification threshold and to take over the comically opportunistic Union Popular Federal was more interesting (if less relevant).

As the colors spoil the libertarian-NOS coalition "REPUBLICANOS" won the leading deputy and senate spots with 28% over the two Federal Peronist lists at 20% and 15%, trailed by the dissident Peronists at 13%, and the Alfonsinists and Kirchnerists tied with 12% each.

Meanwhile, Milei's last minute endorsement for PD appears to have made no difference at all, as they failed to qualify at 0.9%. The knockoff party La Libertad Avanza barely crossed with 1.57% after being denounced for stealing Milei's imagery without his endorsement and ironically for being run by a corrupt local government official who reportedly extorted local businesses for money. So there's a chance he transfers that endorsement to the newly libertarian UPF, and with the wave of credibility and media coverage that might make a measurable impact. Which is to say they might go from 2% to 3% or even 4% instead of collapsing when all the other contenders (except maybe the Federal Peronists) inevitably switch their support to the parties closer to them ideologically.


It's been a great night but I'll be going to bed. Hopefully there's some more detailed analysis over the coming days now that we have the PASO to use for reference. To close, I leave you Milei's victory speech:

https://twitter.com/todonoticias/status/1437226661565632515

"There is nothing to celebrate. Today Argentina is a 50-50 country; 50% inflation and 50% in poverty. If we don't change in 50 years we'll be the most miserable slum in the world. So let's make the political class tremble!"

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Myriam Bregman managed 6.5% to 8% in the central and to a lesser extent southeastern communes, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 15. She did worst (4-5.5%) in the northeastern communes 2, 13, 14 and interestingly below average in the southeast. So basically a mirror image of Milei's results, where his worst communes are her best and vice versa. In Commune 15 the combined vote of all the leftists would be slightly higher than his result but everywhere else it isn't close. To my ignorant eye it looks like they were indeed both fighting over protest votes. My first guess was UBA but that (and the other universities for that matter) is in Commune 1, where Bregman did better than the other coastal communes. I leave it to a Porteño to explain why the geography of the battle for 3rd looked so different from that of the battle for 1st because I'd love to see some explanations from someone who knows better

Comuna 1 is a mess to analyze in general,the only things that connects all those neighborhoods is being close to the 9 de Julio and/or "el bajo" (Libertador, Alem, Paseo Colón) Avenues
There are some of the most upper class parts of the city in the old parts of Retiro, the largely nouveau riche Puerto Madero, Microcentro and Centro [taking the latter as roughly San Nicolás west of the 9 de Julio] which are largely middle to lower-middle class, the slums of Villa 31 and 31 bis, the busy lower class neighborhood of Constitución, the touristic parts of San Telmo, and a lot more stuff

Retiro itself as a neighborhood has always been devoured by its neighbors, as the northern parts are often considered part of Recoleta or the more nebulous Barrio Norte, the Catalinas Norte towers are considered by most as part of Puerto Madero and a samll aprt between Parque San Martín and Cordoba Ave. is often taken as part of Microcentro

And Centro, Microcentro, Constitución and parts of Retiro have received lots of migrants both from neighboring countries (+Venezuelasns in recent years) from the Interior and many peiple from the southhern parts of the Conurbano (as the Linea Roca train connects Zona Sur with Constitución and then you can take the C subway which has stops all across the 9 de Julio)

[FredLindq]

In the senate elections 24 of 72 seats of grabs I think that Juntos will win 15. The will win I seven out of eight provinces, and will come second in one (Catamarca). FDT will have 8. The will win Catamrca and will be second in every other province without Cordoba. In Cordoba HPC will be second and win one seat.

So for the senate:
Juntos 15
FDT 8
HPC 1

In total this will lead to:
FDT 34
FDT allies (Misiones) 1
Juntos 32
Parlamentario Federal 4
 (Federal Peronists in Salta, Nequen, Corodoba and La Rioja)
Juntos Somos Río Negro    1
Total 72

Majority 37
So the Federal Peronists will be kingmakers here.


My prognosis were quite right. Right now it looks like the results would be:
For the senate:
Juntos 14
FDT 9
HPC 1

[Skye]

Well this result looks disastrous for the Kirchnerists. I'm hoping we get a more detailed analysis of what happened and what we can expect from our Argentine users.

[FredLindq]

Here is my predictions, mainly based on opinion polls in Clarin and at Wikipedia and on the provincial elections results earlier this year in some states.


For the chamber of deputies, I think it will be:
Juntos 60
FDT 49
AL  4 (2 each in BA and the capital)
Vamos 3 (In BA)
HPC 3 (Cordoba)
FRC 2 (Misiones)
FAP 2 (Santa Fe)
FIT 1 (BA)
JSRN 1 (Río Negro)
MPN 1 (Nequen)
UPS 1 (Salta)

My predictions here were very accurate as well. The results:
Juntos 61
FDT 48
AL  4
FIT 4
HPC 3 (Cordoba)
MPN 2 (Nequen)
FRC 1 (Misiones)
FAP 1 (Santa Fe)
Vamos 1
JSRN 1 (Río Negro)
SEPRSC 1 (Santa Cruz)

[kaoras]

How bad is this for the Ks compared to 2009 and 2013?. At first glance it seems similar to 2009 results.

[Estrella]

How bad is this for the Ks compared to 2009 and 2013?. At first glance it seems similar to 2009 results.

Very.

Those two elections happened after six and ten years of kirchnerismo in power and in both cases, opposition was splintered between dissident Peronists, centre-left non-Peronists, the remains of UCR, PRO, local barons and various alliances of these groups. What happened now was that a government that has only been in power for two years was defeated by an united opposition alliance, with local barons and dissident Peronists weaker than ever. 2009 and 2013 were, in a way, protest votes for whatever flavor of opposition was available; now, Juntos is a clear alternative and it will be very hard for Alberto to do what Cristina managed to do in 2011 and what Scioli almost managed to do in 2015.

In conclusion, voters' message to the government was this:

[PSOL]

FIT are pretty happy with the results

It was the best performance yet for the FIT-U — commonly referred to as the Left Front — which formed 10 years ago. The results for the Trotskyist left were most impressive in some of the poorest and most remote parts of the country. In the province of Jujuy, home to tens of thousands of indigenous people and farm workers, the coalition won 20 percent of the vote. Its Congressional candidate in Jujuy, Alejandro Vilca, is himself a long-time sanitation worker. In Chubut, located in the far south of the country, and home to major fishing, mining, and oil industries, approximately 9 percent of voters backed the Left’s candidates. In the province of Neuquén, the bloc took around 8 percent. In the latter province, the Left Front slate was led by Raúl Godoy, a leader in the worker-occupied and managed Zanon tile factory. In the city and province of Buenos Aires, home to 70 percent of Argentina’s population, the coalition earned 6 and 5 percent, respectively.

Ever since the Abortion ruling, FIT has only gained from the momentum. The most precarious in Argentine society are finally done with the Peronists.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Several ministers and cabinet member, especially those close to Cristina have filed their resignation, including the Interior, Justice, Territorial Development (HUD), Environment, Science and Culture Ministers, the Secretary of Interior Commerce and the chairwomen of the ANSES (the agency in charge of social Security and large parts of welfare) and  PAMI (Medicare), in the latest phase of the """hidden""" primary between the President and the VP

A similar situation has also taken place in the Province of Buenos Aires, and in Santa Cruz governor Alicia Kirchner (Néstor's sister, and as such Cristina's sister in law), often ranked as the country's worst governor has asked for all her cabinet to resign after Todos suffered a landslide loss and barely won the second place over a local party I had never heard of

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Originally I was going to boldly guess the November results today and see how it went but things are moving so fast that I'll hold off until we know Kirchner isn't taking control and Massa isn't jumping ship.

So instead I'll look at how well the polls did.

In the key province of Buenos Aires VTP and Santilli were very accurately polled, the former's last two polls had her final percentage off by only .1%. Randazzo was greatly overestimated while Manes significantly outperformed his polling numbers. Espert received less than most polls expected but still fell within expectations (funnily enough he got more votes in the province than he got running for president across the whole country last time) while the leftists received slightly more but still fell within the range.

In CABA Vidal, LM and Santoro all fell right within their polling averages. The combined Leftist vote was slightly above expectations and Milei was the only candidate to end up beating even his best polling numbers.

On that note I came across an even more granular map of Milei's performance by neighbourhood. The three main takeaways are

* His best polling station was Puerto Madero's station 3 in Commune 1, where he won 20% and 2nd place (a very distant 2nd to Vidal but still). To my understanding PM is a new development and is full of tech companies and the like so it sort of makes sense. But that support is very local to that area and Balvanera, with other western neighbourhoods giving him far lower results.

* His second best was station 91 in Parque Avellenada, where he won 19.5% and nearly passed Vidal for second. It's a very unintuitive place for him to so well too; so far as I can tell it's one of the strongest polling stations for Santoro, who won over 40%.

* His support in the southeast is much more consistent. In the triangle between Villa Riachuelo, Flores and Villa Devoto he receives at least 14% in every polling station and in several neighbourhoods is over 16%.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

New cabinet, which includes a lot of changes, mainly among those closest to Alberto
One of the big ones is that Santiago Cafiero, one of Alberto's closest allies, will be "demoted" from Cabinet Chief to Minister of Foreign Affairs
Chief of Cabinet: Santiago Cafiero->Juan Manzur, current governor of Tucumán
Foreign Affairs:Felipe Solá -> Santiago Cafiero
Security Minister: Sabrna Frederic, who has been criticized a lot in recent weeks for her gaffes (her Switzerland comments) and general uselessness, -> Aníbal Fernández
Agriculture: Luis Basterra -> Julián Domínguez, who previously held this post between 2009 and 2011
Science and Technology: Roberto Salvarezza -> Daniel Filmus
Education: Nicolás Trotta->Jaime Perzyck
Press secretary: Juan Pablo Biondi -> Juan Ross

Wado de Pedro (Interior Minister), Soria (Justice Minister), Bauer (Culture), Cabandié (Environment) and Ferraresi (Territorial Development) will keep their posts as Alberto rejected their resignations

I may be updating this post later to make it more useful, in the meanwhile here's a relatively recent (from before the changes in the ministreies) opinion poll about the Fernández cabinet