Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Please could somebody explain how the PASO works?  Like will the highest scoring internal list become that alliance's formal list in the general election or would the final list be a mixture of internal lists?

Yes

It's up to each individual Coalition in each individual province, and you also have to take into account the mandatory gender parity law, which means that it's a complete mess

Using Corrientes as an example:
ECO+Vamos Corrientes (JxC)
  for Diputados: D'Hondt system with no minimum threshold
  for Senators: full-list system, ie winner takes all
FDT D'Hondt for all posts, with a 5% threshold
Vamos D'Hondt for all posts with no threshold

[xelas81]

Please could somebody explain how the PASO works?  Like will the highest scoring internal list become that alliance's formal list in the general election or would the final list be a mixture of internal lists?

Yes

It's up to each individual Coalition in each individual province, and you also have to take into account the mandatory gender parity law, which means that it's a complete mess

Using Corrientes as an example:
ECO+Vamos Corrientes (JxC)
  for Diputados: D'Hondt system with no minimum threshold
  for Senators: full-list system, ie winner takes all
FDT D'Hondt for all posts, with a 5% threshold
Vamos D'Hondt for all posts with no threshold

Is the process how the final list will determined on the ballot (ie what is the threshold) or the voters have to find out by themselves?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Please could somebody explain how the PASO works?  Like will the highest scoring internal list become that alliance's formal list in the general election or would the final list be a mixture of internal lists?

Yes

It's up to each individual Coalition in each individual province, and you also have to take into account the mandatory gender parity law, which means that it's a complete mess

Using Corrientes as an example:
ECO+Vamos Corrientes (JxC)
  for Diputados: D'Hondt system with no minimum threshold
  for Senators: full-list system, ie winner takes all
FDT D'Hondt for all posts, with a 5% threshold
Vamos D'Hondt for all posts with no threshold

Is the process how the final list will determined on the ballot (ie what is the threshold) or the voters have to find out by themselves?

by themselves, most people don't have a clue about this

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Mendoza, the fifth largest province by population ( Cambia Mza: 6D/2S, FDT+Allies: 4D/1S) and one of kirchnerism's weakest districts

•Cambia Mendoza (JxC) will run two lists, the main list  formed by the UCR and PRO, while the other one is representing Republicanos Unidos this time with some support from some minor sectors like Monzó's Partido del Diálogo and a Pro faction
 ~Senate:
 Juntos por Mendoza:
  1- Alfredo Cornejo (UCR), former Governorovernor of Mendoza (2015-2019) and Diputado (2005-2007/2019-)
  2. Mariana Juri (UCR), the Province's current Minister for Culture and Tourism and former Diputada (2009-13)
  3. Rodolfo Suárez (UCR), the current governor,  as a purely testimonial candidate
 República Ya - Cambia Ya
  1. Rodolfo Vargas Arizu (Recrear -Lopez Murphy's party), wine businessman
  2. Carina Lourdes Gannam, I couldn't find anything about her
 
 ~Diputados:
 Juntos por Mendoza
  1. Julio Cobos (UCR), former vicepresident (2007-2011), governor (2003-2007), Diputado (2013-2015) and current Senator (2015-2021) . He was elected as Cristina's VP as one of the leaders of the Radicales K (Kirchnerista-aligned members of the UCR) but he completely severed his relation with the president during the 2008 agrarian crisis and his (in)famous "voto no positivo" on the Resolución 125.
  2. Pamela Verassay (UCR), incumbent senator for Mendoza (2015-2021)
  3. Álvaro Martínez (Pro) provincial diputado
  República Ya - Cambia Ya
  1. Josefina Canale (P Demócrata Progresista), provincial diputada
  2. Julio Totero, metallurgical industrialist

•Frente de Todos
 ~Senate:
 1. Anabel Fernández Sagasti (PJ/La Cámpora) (inc), Senator, former Diputada and one of Cristina's strongest allies in one of her weakest provinces
 ~Diputados
 1. Adolfo Bermejo (PJ), provincial senator (2018-), national Senator (2009-2015), FpV gubernatorial candidate in 2015, and a representative of the more socially conservative wing of the Mendoza FDT
 2. Liliana Paponet, provincial diputada
[The FDT incorporated the Unidad Federal caucus led by Mendoza Diputado José Luis Ramón, but in an unexpected twist he didn't get any major post]
[for the ones below this point I'll only include the candidates for Diputados]

•Frente de Izquierda - Unidad , from what I could gather the FIT has decreased a lot in popularity in Mendoza since their glory days in 2013
 PTS: 1. Noelia Barbeito, former provincial senator (2014-18)
 Podemos (MST): 1. Nicolas Fernández

•Vamos! Mendocinos, Cambia Mendoza offshoot, Partido Demócrata  (local center right party that used to dominate local politics) + Coalición Cívica
 1. Gustavo Gutiérrez (PD), fomer  Diputado (1995-2003) for the PD,
  Lilita Carrio's VP candidate in 2003 and between then and last year the provincial leader of ARI and it's successor Coalición Cívica (Carrio's party)

•Partido Verde (Green Party) allied with a rump offshoot of Ramón's Protectora party
•Partido Federal
•Compromiso Federal
•Dignidad Popular (Bandera Vecinal)

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Please could somebody explain how the PASO works?  Like will the highest scoring internal list become that alliance's formal list in the general election or would the final list be a mixture of internal lists?

Yes

It's up to each individual Coalition in each individual province, and you also have to take into account the mandatory gender parity law, which means that it's a complete mess

Using Corrientes as an example:
ECO+Vamos Corrientes (JxC)
  for Diputados: D'Hondt system with no minimum threshold
  for Senators: full-list system, ie winner takes all
FDT D'Hondt for all posts, with a 5% threshold
Vamos D'Hondt for all posts with no threshold

Is the process how the final list will determined on the ballot (ie what is the threshold) or the voters have to find out by themselves?

I tried reading an article explaining how JxC's PASO in PBA will impact the list and it was ludicrously complex. The only things I can say for sure is that whoever gets the most votes gets the top slot, every other slot has to be filled by a woman and there's a threshold under which an internal group won't make it onto the final list at all, typically between 10% and 30% of the list's total votes or at least 1.5% of the total votes cast.

Anyway, a mini-report on the state of the polls. While many Argentines consider the polls to be totally useless, I'd argue that they still provide useful information. On average, while they were definitely off they still generally got the order right, and I think the errors they made were fairly predictable ones. In no particular order,

* Fernández was underrated while Lavagna was overrated. Polarization ended up bringing the swing Peronists onto Fernández's side, in part because he did a fairly good job of portraying himself as a moderate against the terrible economy brought about by Macri.

* Macri did worse than his poll numbers would indicate. I feel like this was the result of a similar problem to American polls: Macri's base of upper middle class voters were way more likely to answer pollsters than Fernández's younger and poorer voters.

* Espert was overestimated, but (with the exception of a lone 11.5% poll) not by as much or as consistently as people seem to think. Most estimated his support in the 2-6% range and he ended up with 2.6%, so its safe to say most of that soft support went to Macri and compensated slightly for his overpolled base.

So with that established, lets look at the current state of the polls in PBA and CABA. There are also national polls but I think they've pretty questionable for a legislative election where most of the minor lists being polled aren't even running nationally and the threshold for winning a deputy varies wildly.

So for CABA we've got:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1420058233130082307

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1420058567089037317

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1423657852720320516



Vidal's support is surprisingly low, but in theory most of the hawks that aren't supporting her right now should end up coming back after the PASO. Santoro is polling surprisingly high, but it isn't clear whether that's just the enthusiasm gap (since FdT is united and there aren't any dissident Peronists in CABA this time around) or if it indicates something more serious. Milei's support is all over the place (more on that later) but his floor seems to be around 5% and his ceiling is unclear but it's probably around 15%. The safest assumption to make is that most undecided voters will eventually cast a begrudging vote for Vidal unless something big happens. Santoro would still be very happy with 30% but it'll very likely end up lower than that.

For PBA:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1420057686914342917

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1420057218272137221

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1420056367545606145

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1421919314643406848

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1423656714533064704

In PBA we have the exact opposite, with JxC often being polled quite high compared to FdT, though there's a huge amount of variation. Where the undecideds in CABA will probably go back to JxC in the end, the undecided voters of PBA seem more likely to fall behind the leading Peronist force. Of course Randazzo will qualify easily even if he only wins the votes of those who turned out for Lavagna back in 2019, but whether that'll earn him 3rd or 4th in the province remains in question. Espert's polling numbers fluctuate wildly, albeit not to the extent that Milei's do.

On that note, AL seems basically impossible to poll because its bases of support are the least consistent in terms of turnout. The first is voters under 30, who compose over 60% of their total base of support and aren't known for their reliable turnout. The second is those who are disenchanted with the two major fronts, or those who are disenchanted by politics entirely. How many such people would actually turn out to vote is in question, so it isn't surprising that Espert and Milei have such wildly varying polling numbers.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

There's been an ongoing scandal which I'm really not in the know enough to get to deep on, but the original story was that Fernández was having illegal gatherings against Argentina's very strict COVID lockdown policies. This somehow evolved into "Fernández is inviting women to the Pink House to cheat on his wife" to "Fernández is turning Casa Rosada into a brothel". The first claim was verifiably true but the second is unclear and the third is pure exaggeration so FdT managed to turn it into a fight about feminism, far more comfortable ground than a fight about corruption and double standards.

On the flipside, Vidal has been having a tough time credibly establishing herself as a porteña after having abandoned the province she formerly governed apparently out of pure political calculation. That's nothing new, but the prospects of UCR rebel Facundo Manes are looking up, something that's very troublesome for Larreta and the rest of JxC leadership; even an overperformance screws up their list and leaves key candidates beyond any realistic prospect of getting through the general.

In other news, Milei launched his campaign in Palermo and several thousand people materialized out of Twitter. The turnout seems to have boosted his credibility enough to face attacks from the JxC camp for being too friendly to Peronists and even from President Fernández himself. The ongoing joke is that most of the crowd can't actually vote but since the voting age was lowered to 16 that actually might not be a problem. When Cristina did that back in 2012 I can't imagine she considered that it would end up helping Milei cross the threshold. Today's gerrymander is tomorrow's dummymander.

https://twitter.com/LibertarioCABA/status/1424135740867366915

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In the latest example of AF dropping the ball, he was caught holding a birthday party that violated the restrictions and the great feminist president of Argentina responded by...blaming his wife

Of course he had to backtrack after that but he's a master of shooting himself in the foot

[kaoras]

Well, that twitter account CM sure looks like a 16 years old .

This crowd reminded me of a lefty candidate in the 2013 Chilean presidential elections, Marcel Claude. He also was mocked for being a Twitter thing but materialized huge crowds for his campaign's acts. In the end, he got 2,8% of the vote since most of the crowds were there for the music groups lol. Hope Millei has better luck (well, not really, but you get what I mean)  

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

There were provincial elections in Salta, which were won by the incumbent independent Peronist coalition of Unidos por Salta and Si - Salta Independiente.

JxC ran two separate lists and did okay (17.5% for the main list and a little over 6% for the UCR splinter); FdT did quite badly, only getting 9.2% while a separate Kirchnerist list pulled about 5%. Turnout was also low, and there were an unusually high number of blank votes and spoiled ballots.

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1427075621365104640

In national news, President Fernández's birthday scandal has evolved as more pictures came out showing him and his cabinet (most flagrantly Massa) flagrantly ignoring their own rules of social distancing, restricting numbers at social gatherings and mask wearing. The image of both the President and the government has been hit hard; disapproval hit a record high of 70.8%.

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1428854560186159104

Unfortunately for JxC, their governor-swap decision seems to have reduced their ability to take advantage, at least in PBA and CABA. Santilli and Vidal haven't been very popular and have lost ground to what were supposed to be sacrificial candidacies, those of Manes and Lopez Murphy respectively.

FIT held a youth event. It had okay turnout. The continuing decline in the image of Fernández probably helps them in picking up disgruntled Kirchnerists. On the other hand, they've been going very hard against Milei, calling him literally Hitler Videla and such. Probably because they're worried he's taking their place as the go-to protest vote.

On that note, Milei went to Mataderos, one of the working class neighbourhoods in southern CABA most favourable to FdT and received a pretty good reception.

https://twitter.com/LibertadAvanza_/status/1428395062820491265

 The past few scandals probably help him more than anyone else in CABA, at least so long as his name is synonymous with anti-politics. Lopez Murphy has also gained thanks to Vidal's weakness, though he hasn't done as much in the way of direct campaigning.

Finally, a breakdown of the polling trends since the campaign started:

In CABA, Vidal and Santoro both falling fast as Lopez Murphy, Milei, blank votes and both the united and not so united Left are all on the upswing. Rubinstein isn't going anywhere though.

In PBA, similarly, VTP and Santilli are both falling to the benefit of the smaller parties and especially UCR rebel Manes. Randazzo and Espert seem to both be rising, though who leads seems to depend entirely on the pollster.

In Córdoba JxC is holding steady (De Loredo narrowly leads Santos with a little over 20% each and an additional 2-4% shared by the minor lists), HpC seems to be doing well and FdT is closer to losing its seat than winning another.

In Mendoza JxC has a strong lead of around 50% total while FdT, Vamos Mendocinos! and Partido Federal are all narrowly separated with 10-14% each. Once again the forces of Oficialismo are closer to losing their deputy than making any gains.

All in all, while the losses in Buenos Aires are somewhat limited FdT is in big trouble if it has unexpected losses in the other provinces. I'd guess in most cases the beneficiaries would either be local Federal Peronists or the FIT

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

There were provincial elections in Salta, which were won by the incumbent independent Peronist coalition of Unidos por Salta and Si - Salta Independiente.
JxC ran two separate lists and did okay (17.5% for the main list and a little over 6% for the UCR splinter); FdT did quite badly, only getting 9.2% while a separate Kirchnerist list pulled about 5%. Turnout was also low, and there were an unusually high number of blank votes and spoiled ballots.

Those results are only for one race (provincial senator for the capital district) in one of three categories (provincial senate, provincial chamber of deputies and constitutional convention); the final results were this:

- All the "saencistas" lists (and there were many) got a combined 20 out of 30 seats elected this year for the provincial lower chamber. Kirchnerist lists got 4, Salta Independiente got 3, JxC got 3.
- In th upper chamber, Saenz got 9 out of 12 seats, the remaining 3 went to the kirchnerists.
-In the constitutional convention Saenz got 38 of 60 seats, kirchnerists 12, JxC 8, Salta Independiente 1 and the Left Front 1

A resounding victory for Saenz, who maintains his supermajorities in the legislature and has a majority to reform the provincial constitution. FdT and JxC did poorly, but they maintain what they had, plus Saenz is friendly to both coallitions, so they can't really complain. The only loser was the Left, it lost it's only legislator, and is now without representation in yet another provincial legislature after Jujuy earlier this year.

In national news, President Fernández's birthday scandal has evolved as more pictures came out showing him and his cabinet (most flagrantly Massa) flagrantly ignoring their own rules of social distancing, restricting numbers at social gatherings and mask wearing. The image of both the President and the government has been hit hard; disapproval hit a record high of 70.8%.

The scandal certainy damaged his image, but not "70% disaproval" kind of damage, not even Macri has those numbers (and he's far and away the most unpopular argentine politician). A good reminder of how bad polling is in this country.

Unfortunately for JxC, their governor-swap decision seems to have reduced their ability to take advantage, at least in PBA and CABA. Santilli and Vidal haven't been very popular and have lost ground to what were supposed to be sacrificial candidacies, those of Manes and Lopez Murphy respectively.

Eh, Vidal might not get the 80% she might had hoped initially, but she'll still win comfortably against Lopez Murphy. Most JxC voters like her, and i don't see her losing against a washed up 90's politician and his list of internet celebrities.

As for Manes, regardless of the final result, he's not and was never intended to be a testimonial candidate, the UCR chose him precisely because of how competitive he is against Santilli (another strong candidate). Neither will win in the general against the FdT of course, but the JxC primary in PBA will at least be competitive race.

FIT held a youth event. It had okay turnout. The continuing decline in the image of Fernández probably helps them in picking up disgruntled Kirchnerists. On the other hand, they've been going very hard against Milei, calling him literally Hitler Videla and such. Probably because they're worried he's taking their place as the go-to protest vote.

Two things. First, there's little cross voting between kirchnerists and the left, and when there is, it's mostly leftists voting for kirchnerists rather than the other way around. Most kirchnerists (nevermind peronists in general) have a very negative opinion of he left, whom they perceive as idiots "that can't see the real pathway towards a popular government isn't that foreign commie nonsense but our own national peronist movement". That's why kirchnerists are always acusing the FIT of being "just another tool of the right", and love making fun of them. Leftists have an equally negative opinion of the PJ and the Kirchners, but many of them are pragmatic enough to sometimes vote for a kirchnerist as the lesser evil, like they did in 2019. With the way things are going (badly that is), these particular voters will most definitively vote for the FIT now, but this isn't the Left gaining new voters, but rather just geting them back.
The actual disgruntled kirchnerist voters, the ones disapointed with Alberto, are independents and moderate peronists, who probably never liked Cristina in the first place, and these people will vote for someone like Randazzo, not the Left Front.

The second thing is that no, the Left isn't the "go-to protest vote" and never has been, not even at the height of social upheaval in 2001. The general perception in this country is that the Left are a bunch of university hippies and stoners, slum dwellers who don't work and are constantly obstructing streets in demand of more welfare, and woke progressives who care more for criminals than their victims. If you are an argentine and want to protest against the political class, you won't vote for the Left, because you most likely think they're useless and part of the problem. There's no competition between Milei and the FIT, they trade insults simply because one's a libertarian and the others are trotskyists, of course they hate each other.

Also, i'd suggest you not to make any predictions for the general election based on polling, not only because polling here is very unreliable, but also because results of the primaries and the generals are diferent; the PASO mainly functions as a sort of "first round" in wich people vote however they want, but then in the generals, with results of the primaries at hand, many change their preference and vote strategically (see Macri gaining two million votes between august and october of 2019); so even if the polls are correct, results in september and november won't be the same.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Yesterday, the provincial elections in Corrientes took place, this post will be pretty brief as I don't know much about correntino politics, and I'm a bit behind on my college classes

ECO+Vamos Corrientes (JxC) won by a devastating margin against their only opponent, the kirchnerista-peronista list Frente Corriente de Todos, in an election marked by a much lower turnout than any other gubernatorial election in Corrientes in recent memory (although it should be noted that this is the first gubernatorial election that wasn't held on the same date as the national elections)

Governor:
Gustavo Valdés [inc] (UCR/ECO) - Pedro Braillard (Partido Popular/Pro) 76.75% (+22.07)
Fabián Ríos (PJ) -Martín Barrionuevo (PJ) 23.25% (-21.95, ouch)

The results for the provincial  senate and diputados lists are pretty similar, and as in the national elections a third of the senators and half of the diputados are renewed in each election, and both are elected through an at-large costituency
S: 4(=) with 75.89% / 1(=) 24.11%
D: 13 (+2)77.39% / 2(-2) 21.61%
 
Corrientes has been governed by the UCR since 2001 and its been one of the weakest districts for peronistas and kirchneristas for well over 2 decades, but the local PJ+ alliances got a much more respectable 45% or so in 2013 and 2017

Ríos previously got 30.7% in the 2009 gubernatorial elections, but that was back when the PJ+ coalition was used to getting attrocious results in every election in Corrientes, against Ricardo Colombi's 51.3% and Arturo Colombi's (inc.) 32.7% (yes, the Colombis are cousins)


As for the national elections there will be 4 coalitions running for Corrientes' 3 Senators (currently: FDT: 2-JxC: 1) and 3  of its Diputados (JxC: 4-FDT: 3)

ECO+VC will run 2 lists for the senate and 3 for diputados

 ~Senate:
   Lista Verde, the main list supported by the UCR and Pro
   1. Eduardo "Peteco" Vischi (UCR), provincial diputado and former mayor of Paso de los Libres, the main city on the border between corrientes and Brazil
   2. Gabriela Valenzuela (UCR), former provincial diputada
 
   Libertad+Valores+NOS.... (NOS)
   1. Mario Cerono (Evangelical pastor), 2. María Marta Silva Ortiz (NOS)
 
 ~Diputados:
   Lista Verde
   1. Manuel Aguirre (UCR), provincial diputado
   2. Sofía Brambilla (Pro) [inc.]

  Vamos Juntos, the list of Partido Autonomista, one of two liberal center-right parties that dominated local politics under a coalition until the late 1990s, they share the ballot with Lista Verde in the Senate elections
  1. Guillermo Harvey (Autonomista), 2. Andrea Silvina Silvero
  Libertad+Valores+NOS.... in this case a coalition between Partido Liberal, the other old liberal center-right party, NOS, Libertarios de Corrientes and Recrear
  1. Ricardo Guillermo Leconte Jr. (Liberal), 2. María Nieve Garay

Frente de Todos
 ~Senate:
   Lista Celeste y Blanca, the main list, weakly, endorsed by the national
   1. "Camau" Espínola [inc] , national senator since 2015, fomer sailing Olympic  athlete, mayor of the provincial capital (2009-2013) and gubernatorial candidate in 2013, he has a reputation for being a bit of a maverick/opportunistic and changing his national affiliation depending on how much it benefits him
  2. Ana Almirón [inc.] , she was elected as Camau's formula parter in 2015 and has always been very close to Cristina's wing

  Ganemos Corrientes, the anti-Cámpora "true Peronista" wing of the PJ
  1. Alejandro Karlen (Mercosur MP), 2. Nieve de los Ángeles Cuenca

 ~Diputados
    Lista Celeste y Blanca
     1. Jorge Antonio Romero [inc], 2. Marlen Gauna
    Ganemos Corrientes
      1. Jorge Gustavo Silva, 2. Lilian Caruso

Minor parties with no chance of getting a seat:

Vamos con Vos, Randazzo's alliance will run two lists, both from Lavagna's smaller center-left ally parties
 -Libres (Libres del Sur) and
 -Encuentro Social Amplio (Partido Socialista):

Compromiso Federal

[Edu]

Governor:
Gustavo Valdés [inc] (UCR/ECO) - Pedro Braillard (Partido Popular/Pro) 76.6% (+22.07)
Fabián Ríos (PJ) -Martín Barrionuevo (PJ) 23.25% (-21.95, ouch)

With some luck, this is a sign of things to come

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So I spent about an hour writing a detailed post about the possibilities for the PASO tomorrow is it got wiped. So I'll just give a rough estimation:

CABA

Vidal: At least 35% or she's in big trouble. Over 45% and she rests easy. Her campaign wasn't great and to call some moments "cringy" would be an understatement but compared to the alternatives it's not even worth mentioning. I'd guess a result in the high 30s

López Murphy: Around 10% and he, Vidal and the rest of JxC rest easy. Lower is a problem for both since he won't get on the list, higher is a problem because the randos on his list (including a guy who explicitly said he was never asked to run and demanded to be removed) would start to displace Larreta's carefully negotiated coalition of local bigshots. Could potentially vary a lot since his theoretical support base is high but his campaign was terrible

Santoro: Anything over 20% is fine and wins the same 3 seats Todos won in 2017. 26% would put them up one and is my best guess, but they could be anywhere from 20 if dislike of the national government hits them hard and tanks turnout to the mid 30s if Larreta takes the blame and turnout for everyone except the dedicated Peronists is low (FdT easily have the best organization and turnout after all).

Milei: Had pretty good turnout at events but that doesn't necessarily mean lots of votes. Also picked a fight with every politician except Gómez Centurión, every media outlet except LN and the band La Renga while he was at it. Seems to be polling well but as we've seen from Espert, polls don't always translate to reality in Argentina. Still, his goal is just the 7% needed to safely win a deputy spot and that much seems pretty likely even if his support is composed of kids who might not turn out at all.

The Left: Grouped together for convenience. In 2017 won 10% in total, but since it was split 6% FIT to 4% Zamora neither won a seat. Who will win this time? I don't know, but my best guess is Myriam Bregman. On the one hand, the total left vote has been mostly on the downtrend since the heydey of 2001-03 Bushism but on the other FIT picked up a few extra votes in some of the recent local elections when turnout crashed so its possible they'll do a little better this time too. My guess is the total vote in the FIT primary is around 6% and Zamora gets 1-3% but who knows

I've paid less attention to PBA but I expect Todos to do worse than they did in 2017, when they won 18 of 35 seats, even if the vote they get is slightly more efficient seatwise since they're united. They've got a solid core of at least 30% but less than 45% would still be a loss. However, it remains to be seen whether JxC actually stands to benefit; Santilli wants at least 25%, Manes wants at least 10% and so long as that difference doesn't change too much the final list should be somewhat presentable with enough of a base of support to match their 2017 result.

Perhaps this is a bold prediction but I think FdT's voters in PBA will disproportionately (compared to 2017 or 2019 anyway) either not vote or vote for Randazzo. Some think the swing against Macri was purely the result of Peronists uniting but I'd argue the bad economic conditions brought them out, whereas this time the inflation and unemployment will cause them to either not turn out or split. And that's saying a lot because Randazzo is competing with LM for the worst campaign; at one point he thought he'd demonstrate his trustworthiness by calling his own mom. Still, just like how López Murphy will get votes by being the default anti-Peronist liberal/hawk vote in JxC he'll pick up Peronists who are angry but still want to cast a ballot. So my baseline estimate is ~46% VTP, which would be a loss but not a terrible one. Could be better if Peronists are as loyal as people seem to think, could be worse (much worse) if they aren't.

As a result I'd guess he'll do better than Espert, who should at least manage the 3% necessary to cross the threshold but how much better than that is hard to say. FIT won 2 seats with just over 5% last time and I'd imagine they'll get a similar result this time. There's also an outside chance that either Gómez Centurión or Hotton approach the threshold. If either is close then they might make it through the general with some of the votes of the other, though if they both get 1.5-2% they might just both fail instead.

Next are the provinces I paid some attention to.

Córdoba

Todos was hoping to make gains which are possible but somewhat unlikely. Right now they're probably going to get in the 10-15% range and they need a bit higher than that for gains. The local Peronists of Governor Schiaretti seem to have the most momentum of anyone, which is to say they might go from 3 seats to 4. JxC seems reasonably strong but they're probably more likely than either of the other two to drop enough to lose a seat. HvC and FIT might do slightly better than 2017 but still not anywhere near winning a seat ie. ~5%. Also of the three minor parties vying for Milei's endorsement the winner was Roque Fernández's Partido Demócrata. Will that change anything? I doubt it, but if they do any better than 1-2% that's the reason.

Mendoza

Another province the government was hoping to make gains in but in this case Juntos's 3 seats are rock solid and it seems unlikely that Todos will get enough of the vote to win the 2 seats pro-government forces won in 2017. They'll likely lose one of those seats either to JxC or one of the smaller local parties like the Federal Party or Vamos! Mendocinos. If they do really bad they could lose both but they'll probably avoid that humiliation.

Finally, I didn't keep up with Chaco or Entre Ríos but they're the top targets for FdT to make pickups; going from 2-2 and 3-2 to 1-3 and 2-3/1-4 respectively. If they can't do well here then it's just generally a bad sign for the government overall since some of their other targets (especially Mendoza and PBA) look less likely at the moment.

But anything could happen and the polls could be meaningless so who knows.

[FredLindq]

Here is my predictions, mainly based on opinion polls in Clarin and at Wikipedia and on the provincial elections results earlier this year in some states.

In the senate elections 24 of 72 seats of grabs I think that Juntos will win 15. The will win I seven out of eight provinces, and will come second in one (Catamarca). FDT will have 8. The will win Catamrca and will be second in every other province without Cordoba. In Cordoba HPC will be second and win one seat.

So for the senate:
Juntos 15
FDT 8
HPC 1

In total this will lead to:
FDT 34
FDT allies (Misiones) 1
Juntos 32
Parlamentario Federal 4
 (Federal Peronists in Salta, Nequen, Corodoba and La Rioja)
Juntos Somos Río Negro    1
Total 72

Majority 37
So the Federal Peronists will be kingmakers here.

For the chamber of deputies, I think it will be:
Juntos 60
FDT 49
AL  4 (2 each in BA and the capital)
Vamos 3 (In BA)
HPC 3 (Cordoba)
FRC 2 (Misiones)
FAP 2 (Santa Fe)
FIT 1 (BA)
JSRN 1 (Río Negro)
MPN 1 (Nequen)
UPS 1 (Salta)

In total:
FDT 117
Juntos 115
Federal 12
(Federal Peronists like Vamos ex Conenso Federal and HPC i.e Cordoba Federal as well as som socialist from Santa Fe.)
Unidad Federal para el Desarrollo 5  Allied to FDT
(FRC from Misiones, JSRN as well as some other leftists)
AL 4
FIT 1
UPS 1
MPN 1
Argetina Federal 1 (Dissidents from Juntos)
In total 257

Majority 129
So the Federal Peronists will be kingmakers also in the chamber of deputies

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Turnout is lower than 2019 so far. Not a lot to report but a funny story:

https://twitter.com/therealbuni/status/1437081716796108804

Voter: "and Milei, where is Milei's ballot, they are committing fraud"

Poll worker: "That's in Buenos Aires idiot, you can't vote for him in Rosario (Sante Fe province)"

[Edu]

Because of nonsense covid protocols, pretty big lines have been forming at pollings stations in lots of places (Reminder: almost everything is opened up again, there is no reason to have an election with such annoying protocols)

I went to vote and when I saw that the line went around the block I noped out of there.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Because of nonsense covid protocols, pretty big lines have been forming at pollings stations in lots of places (Reminder: almost everything is opened up again, there is no reason to have an election with such annoying protocols)

I went to vote and when I saw that the line went around the block I noped out of there.

Yeah, the protocols were applied in an attrocious way, and often with very little social distancing in practice (including on my own polling station, where that was LESS distancing than on any previous election)

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Turnout is lower than 2019 so far. Not a lot to report but a funny story:

https://twitter.com/therealbuni/status/1437081716796108804

Voter: "and Milei, where is Milei's ballot, they are committing fraud"

Poll worker: "That's in Buenos Aires idiot, you can't vote for him in Rosario (Sante Fe province)"

Yeah, as a poll worker I had a few incidents like that over the years

[Estrella]

TN says JxC is leading by 20 in capital, Todos ahead by 8 in BA province, 67% turnout.

[Estrella]

[Estrella]

I just noticed that Frente de Todos logo, election posters etc. use the same font as official government websites. Peak Peronism right there. L'État, c'est moi.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

For the sake of our currency, I hope the difference between FDT and JXC in Buenos Aires isn't too big (i'm hoping something like 44% to 36%). Upwards of 10 points and it's devaluation time.

[Estrella]

For the sake of our currency, I hope the difference between FDT and JXC in Buenos Aires isn't too big (i'm hoping something like 44% to 36%). Upwards of 10 points and it's devaluation time.

Not election-related, but what's the difference between where dólar oficial and dólar blue are used? Like, if I wanted to exchange money at the airport, what rate would they give? How about an Argentinian going to the bank to exchange their pay into dollars?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Apparently official results could come early at 9PM

TN says JxC is leading by 20 in capital, Todos ahead by 8 in BA province, 67% turnout.

If accurate then FdT is losing seats in the province. They led by 11 in 2017 and that was during a strong year for JxC so there were less third party votes.

In CABA it's less clear. 30 Santoro 35 Vidal 15 LM would be a bad sign for JxC but 20 30 10 would be good. The margin matters less than Santoro's vote share since there will be more movement from the anti-Peronist candidates between now and the general.

In both cases if the smaller parties are doing really well (again, assuming that margin is accurate) then it hurts FdT more. In the province 38-46 would be bad for the government but not that bad whereas 33-41 would be downright terrible. All of the smaller parties (except sometimes the Left and Randazzo, sort of) are hostile to the governing coalition so unless a huge number of parties got 2% and fell under the threshold a loss for both major parties would be worse for the government.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

For the sake of our currency, I hope the difference between FDT and JXC in Buenos Aires isn't too big (i'm hoping something like 44% to 36%). Upwards of 10 points and it's devaluation time.

Not election-related, but what's the difference between where dólar oficial and dólar blue are used? Like, if I wanted to exchange money at the airport, what rate would they give? How about an Argentinian going to the bank to exchange their pay into dollars?

I was gonna say that official exchanges use the official dollar, but then i remembered there's different kinds of dollars, so it kinda depends on the situation. However, when people want to buy dollars with their pay, ussually they go to the black market, it's more expensive but it's also quicker and there are no set limits to how much you can buy.