How many Bundestag votes for chancellor will Olaf Scholz get?

[President Johnson]

Two day poll: How many votes in the Bundestag will Olaf Scholz get for chancellor coming Wednesday, when the vote is expected to take place?

369 votes - an absolute majority - will be required in the first round. The trafficlight coalition has a solid majority of 416 seats. However, at least in Merkel's case, there have been several defections in 2005, 2009, 2013 and 2018. Schröder in 1998 actually got more votes than his coalition, while in 2002, with a very narrow majority, there was just one defector (305 votes while 302 were needed, coalition had 306). There's always the discussion whether close or large majorities are better, since the former require a lot more discipline.

Until a few weeks ago, I would have said he gets definitely less than 400 votes, maybe 391-395. However, I'm more optimistic now and say 403.

I think I'd always be nervous as chancellor candidate and fear to get an underwhelming result. Was even true for me at local party conventions when I ran for something.


Some background information: After coalition talks are finished and the agreement is approved by the parties, the president will submit the chancellor nomination to the Bundestag. There's no debate, and Bundestag members can vote yes, no or present. Opposition candidates are not up for election. The nomination must receive an absolute majority. If that fails, a second round takes place. If that fails again, a relative majority is enough, and then the president can decide whether he appoints a minority cabinet (which has never happened) or call for snap elections. If absolute majority is instantly reached, the president has to appoint the chancellor immediately.

[CumbrianLefty]

Union will obviously vote against en bloc, presumably AfD too - but what about Die Linke?

[President Johnson]

Union will obviously vote against en bloc, presumably AfD too - but what about Die Linke?

Don't see anyone voting for him here either. Votes from the opposition are relatively rare.

The big question will be how close he can get to the 416 seats SPD-Greens-FDP have.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Union will obviously vote against en bloc, presumably AfD too - but what about Die Linke?

Definitely not. Only few Social Democrats are less popular among Linke parliamentarians than Scholz - especially in combination with Habeck and Lindner.

Wild guess - 407.

[buritobr]

Where do these faithless voters come from?
I believe not from the SPD, since this is the aprty of the new chancellor.
Will they most come from the Greens or the FDP?

[CumbrianLefty]

Possibly the latter, though their membership vote in favour of the coalition deal was impressive.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I would think the greens and FDP would have the most defictions, not only do they have to make the most comprimises but they also tend to associate more crankish/fringe elements into their party which while outside the leadership does have some represenation in their parlimentary caucus and would be likley to vote agains the goverment for their own idiosycratic reason.

[buritobr]

395

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Note that at least 6 members from the coalition were sick and that the lone SSW MP has announced to vote in favor of Scholz, meaning that we had to expect a net loss of at least 5.