The future of Arizona

[THG]

I think people overrate how the audit will affect Arizona long or even short term, unless someone like Ward or Gosar runs (god forbid!).

[Person Man]

I see it becoming a swing state at least through the 2030s, although whether or not it will becoming solidly Democratic will depend on the strength of Maricopa county. While Phoenix is a reliably Democratic city, the county has ultraconservative suburban and rural areas, which outweighed the county until Biden. If Phoenix grows, I can see Arizona becoming the next Colorado or Oregon, otherwise I think it will end up like a 20th century version of Missouri or Ohio, where it votes for the winner. Demographically I think the influx of moderate-conservative voters from California as well as Midwest/Western retirees could slow down the states Dem trend similar to Nevada, but I don't think it will become the conservative stronghold it was through most of the 20th century. I see senators like McCain, Flake, and Sinema representing the future and the state becoming at least a short-term hub for moderates. The Goldwater and Meecham days are over, but I don't think we'll be seeing politicians like Bernie or AOC, unless Phoenix grows to the size of Denver.

Phoenix is bigger than Denver. It's just way more spread out. That's probably why Florida votes more like a typical outer suburb than a city.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

I see it becoming a swing state at least through the 2030s, although whether or not it will becoming solidly Democratic will depend on the strength of Maricopa county. While Phoenix is a reliably Democratic city, the county has ultraconservative suburban and rural areas, which outweighed the county until Biden. If Phoenix grows, I can see Arizona becoming the next Colorado or Oregon, otherwise I think it will end up like a 20th century version of Missouri or Ohio, where it votes for the winner. Demographically I think the influx of moderate-conservative voters from California as well as Midwest/Western retirees could slow down the states Dem trend similar to Nevada, but I don't think it will become the conservative stronghold it was through most of the 20th century. I see senators like McCain, Flake, and Sinema representing the future and the state becoming at least a short-term hub for moderates. The Goldwater and Meecham days are over, but I don't think we'll be seeing politicians like Bernie or AOC, unless Phoenix grows to the size of Denver.

Makes sense
Phoenix is bigger than Denver. It's just way more spread out. That's probably why Florida votes more like a typical outer suburb than a city.

[Senator Golden]

As of right now, Arizona is a very purple state. Similarly to Georgia, Arizona was a former republican stronghold that has trended dem. Now I am beginning to think that it is slipping away from Republicans. Democrats have won both Senate seats by at least 2 percent, Biden won it very narrowly, and dems have the congressional delegation majority.

Lets see what happens in 2022. If Kelly and Hobbs (I'm assuming she is the nominee) win their races then I think it will have the slightest blue hue. Biden would have won Arizona by a lot more if he didn't underperform with Hispanics and that seems unlikely to become a regular occurrence. Phoenix and Tucson are growing rapidly and continuing to become more liberal. I think a big part of why republicans have had such little luck here recently is because they run way too Conservative candidates like McSally and have Kelli Ward as their party chair.

By the end of the decade I expect Arizona to be a dem leaning state. Republicans still have a chance to turn this state around but they just aren't taking it seriously enough. I think Arizona will most likely take the path of Nevada and New Mexico as dem leaning states but it will be more elastic versus say Georgia where Republicans are completely screwed.

[n59690]

I am not sure if Dems will hold onto AZ if Kamala is the nominee. I'm confident it will keep trending Democrat long term for the following reasons:

1. Population growth

As we know, Democrats have a huge amount of gravitas on major cities (unless you live on Miami-Dade, apparently)

Phoenix Metro is a fast growing area.  Population: 1.4M to 1.6M (2012-2019)
with a growing Silicon Valley-like presence. Intel just started building its largest chip manufacturing plant here, GoDaddy and Paypal have offices here.

2. Statewide Dem Wins

Democrats holding statewide offices (Senate x2, S.O.S) give much more credibility to the party in the eyes of moderates and even Republicans.

Astronaut Mark Kelly (D) inherited John McCain's Senate seat, with strong donations and few opposition as of October 2021.  Trump even threatened to endorse Kelly if Republican Gov. Doug Ducey decided to run for Senate in 2022, squashing GOP's main chance for a strong opposition candidate, further continuing the prevalence of statewide Dem wins.

3. McCain Sentiment/Election "Audit"

Trump and McCain were not friends. Even a lot of young Democrats respect and to a point, honor McCain's name. In a political climate overtaken by Trump politics, let's say it's not a good combo.

It doesn't help that there's a bipartisan (but mostly Democrat) opposition to the Election Audit (made in an effort to legitimize Trump's claims). The audit found no significant difference in vote totals, also receiving an  almost unanimous punishment by local media since the start (think something like Biden and Afghanistan on national media)

2024:

Lean R with Kamala vs DeSantis
D +2 gain if Kamala vs Trump
D +1 gain if Biden vs DeSantis
D +4 gain if Biden vs Trump

I think Arizona will shift D by  at least+6 points coming 2028.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its not the audit it is what the audit represents. The refusal to acknowledge the disconnect with the voters as they are by adapting to where they are and instead slapping them in the face by discounting their issues as being fabrications. This denialism is what portends doom for the GOP across the sunbelt.

Republicans just don't have answers on health care, climate or the college debt crisis and rather than anger corporatist donors/pressure groups/sensationalist media/consultancy class, they have resorted to denial, attacking education and blaming losses on illegals voting on bamboo ballots from China. All of which make their situation even more precarious.

[TodayJunior]

Ocean blue of course, because as soon as California falls into the Pacific, all the ocean front property will move to Arizona at the drop of a hat.

Ok serious answer: stay a swing state for the foreseeable future in the mold of North Carolina. Arizona is also similar to Florida; I believe I’m correct that a lot of retirees are moving to AZ with lower taxes, warm weather, etc. This is one place where enough self-identified Republicans either sat out or voted for Biden outright bc of Trump to flip the state. Any other Republican in my view would have a good chance to win this one back, but not Trump.