Which state is likely to turn into another Ohio/Iowa/Missouri?

[Suburbia]

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Minnesota?

[BrewCityLiberal]

I'd say Wisconsin, but even that's not likely. With the exception of MN, these states have confounding trends that are keeping both parties competitive at the statewide level.

[CentristRepublican]

NONE.

All four went back into the Biden column, MI flipping by almost 3 points, and MN going blue by a 7% margin. If they were truly on the path to becoming OH, IA or MO, they'd have GOP governors (none do), and would have stuck with Trump (all four states shifted to the left in 2020, and all four went for Biden). In OH Trump won by 8.02%; in MI he lost by 2.78% - a difference of 10.8%...how is this even a comparison? The first step to joining Missouri and Ohio would be actually going for Trump instead of flipping blue. Maybe you could try to make a case for Wisconsin - but no, because I think Southwest Wisconsin is near being maxed-out for the GOP, and there aren't many more votes they can get there, while Democrats have Milwaukee and Madison safe, and are slowly destroying the GOP base of support in the WOW counties that form an integral portion of the GOP coalition in Wisconsin. This question might have made sense in 2016 - but asking it after the 2020 election is just pointless, because the answer is very obviously none of them.

[THG]

Obviously Wisconsin.

[CookieDamage]

None of them. In fact, Missouri doesn't belong with Ohio or Iowa considering how much further right it is.

[Chips]

It's not likely but if there's one state I think could be safe GOP in the 2030's, it's WI.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

None are likely, as there are trends in Wisconsin that favor Democrats as well, but it’s possible that MI/WI eventually lean a bit Republican. For now, though, they’ll remain competitive.