Would Southern California be a swing state if it were it’s own state?

[Cyrusman]

Let’s say everywhere from San Luis Obispo county, and Fresno county to the south including both those counties.
Do you think it would be a swing state or no? I’d imagine republicans would run up the numbers in the Central Valley, and democrats would obviously still dominate LA county, so would it come down to Orange, San Diego county, and the Inland empire?

[Roll Roons]

Maybe in the 90s and 2000s, but not anymore.

It would have been a Republican-leaning state from 1948 through 1988, only voting for LBJ. It would have voted for Clinton twice, for Gore by high single digits, Kerry by less than 5, swung hard to Obama and even harder to Hillary, It swings right by a bit in 2020 thanks to Hispanics/Asians, but still goes to Biden by a very solid margin.

Though they probably could have had a Republican Senator until relatively recently - maybe 2006 or 2008.

[Adjective-Statement]

Wouldn't this be a more appropriate question for Northern California?

[Cyrusman]

Wouldn't this be a more appropriate question for Northern California?

Not really
The Bay Area is way more liberal the Southern California

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Wouldn't this be a more appropriate question for Northern California?

Not really
The Bay Area is way more liberal the Southern California

Northern California is still very R outside of the Bay Area, Sacramento, and the coastal strip.

And no, SoCal would've stopped being a swing state sometime during W's second term.

[Adjective-Statement]

Wouldn't this be a more appropriate question for Northern California?

Not really
The Bay Area is way more liberal the Southern California

Except you left out everything outside the Bay Area, and I had assumed you were talking about the more likely Jefferson state scenario. In any case, neither this hypothetical North or South California would be a swing state because of the coastal cities, but it's worth noting that Southern California's Republican interior is disappearing.

[Roll Roons]

Wouldn't this be a more appropriate question for Northern California?

Not really
The Bay Area is way more liberal the Southern California

Northern California is still very R outside of the Bay Area, Sacramento, and the coastal strip.

And no, SoCal would've stopped being a swing state sometime during W's second term.

Yeah, but the Bay Area is where almost everyone lives and it's just about the bluest metro area in the country.

[CentristRepublican]

It would be liberal; there are a few Republican areas but Los Angeles and San Diego would dominate the state as much as Las Vegas dominates Nevada and Chicago Illinois, if not more. Even aside from LA and San Diego, really, there's not much GOP support - of the ten counties here, just one (Kern) voted Republican (and its votes matter as much as Elko County, Nevada's). How is this even in a question? It'd make more sense to ask who would win if Western Montana were its own state (it may not be its own state but it may soon be its own district).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think a part of me died inside reading this.

[Hammy]

SoCal voted 60% or so Dem in the last election--swing states don't vote 60% for any candidate who won less than 55-57% of the vote.

[Calthrina950]

Let’s say everywhere from San Luis Obispo county, and Fresno county to the south including both those counties.
Do you think it would be a swing state or no? I’d imagine republicans would run up the numbers in the Central Valley, and democrats would obviously still dominate LA county, so would it come down to Orange, San Diego county, and the Inland empire?

Didn't Orange County recently flip to Democrats, sometime in the last 10 years? The county was reliably Republican for a long time; McCain or Romney might have won the county even? But the county is Democrat now.

Southern California was probably a swing-territory before 2000. Democrats would win only about 45-55% of the vote in L.A. before 2000. After 2000, Democrats started racking up huge margins in L.A. county, with 65-70% of the vote. That figure basically puts So-Cal out of reach.

McCain and Romney both won Orange County. Hillary Clinton in 2016 was the first Democrat to carry it since Franklin D. Roosevelt did so in 1936.

[Non Swing Voter]

I suspect the numbers don't even tell the full story.  If the state were even close to swing status Dems would put more resources in and could probably get more low propensity voters to come out.  The demographics are terrible for the GOP in California, north and south.

[Cyrusman]

Let’s say everywhere from San Luis Obispo county, and Fresno county to the south including both those counties.
Do you think it would be a swing state or no? I’d imagine republicans would run up the numbers in the Central Valley, and democrats would obviously still dominate LA county, so would it come down to Orange, San Diego county, and the Inland empire?

Didn't Orange County recently flip to Democrats, sometime in the last 10 years? The county was reliably Republican for a long time; McCain or Romney might have won the county even? But the county is Democrat now.

Southern California was probably a swing-territory before 2000. Democrats would win only about 45-55% of the vote in L.A. before 2000. After 2000, Democrats started racking up huge margins in L.A. county, with 65-70% of the vote. That figure basically puts So-Cal out of reach.

Yes but just for Trump
Newsom carried it by like 4K votes in 2018 but there is no doubt in my mind that flips back to the gop in governed races.
As far as presidents go a non Trump Republican can flip it back. OC is still pretty conservative outside of social issues

[CookieDamage]

It would have last voted R in 1988 probably. It would have last been swingy in 2004, and even then Kerry won it by ~215k votes. Obama would win it by over 1M votes in 2008, and Biden would win it by almost 3M votes in 2020.

It would be more competitive down ballot, but Republicans probably last won the Governor's mansion in 2010 or 2014, and probably stopped winning Senatorial races around the same time, if not before.

[Vosem]

Would've been a "swing" state before Trump, but last actually voted R in 1988. Though the GOP would've come quite close in 2000/2004 and not even done that shabbily in 2012. I don't know how its presence would've changed the House seat allocation formula (or the number of House seats), but there's some chance its existence would've flipped the 2000 election to Gore.

I wonder if this would've changed migration patterns, though: I feel like a self-governing southern California would've evolved to be much more like Arizona or Florida than what actually happened under policies that the Bay Area voted for. Greater Southwestern representation in the US Senate might have changed the course of US history in other ways, which are sort of difficult to map out. (Senators George Murphy and Max Rafferty would, at the very least, have been very prominent. And NorCal would've had an eternal Senator Tunney and...I guess still Cranston).

[CookieDamage]

Would've been a "swing" state before Trump, but last actually voted R in 1988. Though the GOP would've come quite close in 2000/2004 and not even done that shabbily in 2012. I don't know how its presence would've changed the House seat allocation formula (or the number of House seats), but there's some chance its existence would've flipped the 2000 election to Gore.

I wonder if this would've changed migration patterns, though: I feel like a self-governing southern California would've evolved to be much more like Arizona or Florida than what actually happened under policies that the Bay Area voted for. Greater Southwestern representation in the US Senate might have changed the course of US history in other ways, which are sort of difficult to map out. (Senators George Murphy and Max Rafferty would, at the very least, have been very prominent. And NorCal would've had an eternal Senator Tunney and...I guess still Cranston).

I agree that Southern California would have looked more like Arizona than the SoCal of today. However, the presence of Los Angeles and San Diego would have made it bluer, maybe akin to a more populous New Mexico in terms of pre-2000 voting record.