Why doesn’t Georgia vote like Illinois?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why doesn’t Georgia vote like Illinois? Both are large states anchored by one huge left-leaning metro area that overpowers Republican performance elsewhere.

[JoeSchmoe]

Why doesn’t Georgia vote like Illinois? Both are large states anchored by one huge left-leaning metro area that overpowers Republican performance elsewhere.

It's coming... it'll be about the same in about 3-4 Presidential election cycles.

[TDAS04]

Georgia is in the racially-polarized Deep South.  Georgia whites are still way more conservative than whites in numerous more rural states that voted for Trump.

[Crucial_Waukesha]

The difference is in how white people vote in IL vs GA.

Using 2020 AP VoteCast data as an example: while IL's electorate was 10% more white than GA's (75% vs 65%), white people split 50-50 between Biden and Trump in IL while it was 70-30 for Trump in GA. That wide gap held true for both college and noncollege whites: in IL Biden won the former group by 20 points and lost the latter by less than 15 points, while in GA Trump *won* college whites by 20 points and noncollege whites by over 50 points. This stark contrast more than covers the GOP for the fact that GA has more Dem-leaning nonwhite voters than IL.

As for why white voters vote differently in the two states, it's a complex cultural dive but you can look through the crosstabs for clues. One big difference is that GA's white voters are ~60% evangelical Christian, while IL's white voters are less than 25% evangelical Christian; since white evangelical voters are a core GOP constituency, that produces higher GOP support in GA than in IL. Additionally, while Chicago and Atlanta are both large and have some demographic similarities, IL is still more urban than GA (25% vs 15%) and less small town/rural than GA (25% vs 35%), which leads to more GOP bias in the latter state. Both states are ~50% suburban, but Biden won IL suburbs by double the margin he won GA suburbs by (24 points vs 12 points).

[‎]

Another important difference is just that Chicago is currently bigger than Atlanta.

The parts of Chicago metropolitan statistical area inside Illinois made up 69% of the state's population (8.7 Million out of 12.7 Million) in 2019.

That same year, though, the Atlanta metropolitan statistical area made up 57% of Georgia's population (6.0 Million out of 10.6 Million).


Atlanta is expanding right now though, so this is sure to change soon, and the growing city has been one of the key components of turning Georgia blue. I really think Georgia could get to Illinois levels if Atlanta ever gets as big as Chicago proportionally.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Another important difference is just that Chicago is currently bigger than Atlanta.

The parts of Chicago metropolitan statistical area inside Illinois made up 69% of the state's population (8.7 Million out of 12.7 Million) in 2019.

That same year, though, the Atlanta metropolitan statistical area made up 57% of Georgia's population (6.0 Million out of 10.6 Million).


Atlanta is expanding right now though, so this is sure to change soon, and the growing city has been one of the key components of turning Georgia blue. I really think Georgia could get to Illinois levels if Atlanta ever gets as big as Chicago proportionally.

I don't think it will match Illinois levels due to the aforementioned white Evangelical population, but I could see it becoming a consistent 7-10 Democratic point Democratic state under your outlined scenario.

[Bootes Void]

Because Georgia is in the south and Illinois is not

[Hammy]

Among everything else said here, Georgia's rural population is around 40%, while Illinois is around 10-15%.

[Alcibiades]

Georgia whites are more Republican than Kentucky and West Virginia whites, let alone Illinois whites, who were essentially tied between Trump and Biden in 2020.

[CentristRepublican]

Rural Georgia is more of a force in GA politics than Rural Illinois is in IL politics. Also, rural Georgia is heavily Republican, with several counties in which Trump crossed 80% of the vote, while 'rural' Illinois still has some large cities (Rock Island, East St. Illinois) that lead to some Democratic support in 'rural' Illinois. There were several Obama 2012 counties in rural IL (in part because he was from there), and there are some ancestrally Democratic counties (I'm talking about Alexander now) where Trump won in 2020, but with not even 60%.

[DS0816]

Why doesn’t Georgia vote like Illinois? Both are large states anchored by one huge left-leaning metro area that overpowers Republican performance elsewhere.

If the Republicans want to counter-realign against the Democrats—and, given they have lost three out of the last four presidential-election cycles, they should—then they should want to make Illinois become [media color] redder than Georgia.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This would have been considered a bizarre question in literally any previous year. 2020 was the first time GA had voted Democratic since 1992, why should it vote like Illinois?

[Non Swing Voter]

Yeah it's all about the white vote as people point out above.

The places where Democrats get blowout margins are usually states that are fairly diverse (both fit this) + where Democrats can split or narrowly win the white vote.  States like California, New York, Maryland, and Illinois fit this bill. 

States where you're relying more on minority voters as a Dem tend to be pretty close, e.g., New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.  The only exception I can think of is Hawaii, but that's because it's really diverse and I suppose Dems still do fairly well with white voters there.

[Chips]

Whites are more GOP in Georgia. GA could become Illinois in a couple decades though.

[Non Swing Voter]

Whites are more GOP in Georgia. GA could become Illinois in a couple decades though.

Seems like it's more on a trajectory to become Maryland.

[seeking mystical annihilation]

Whites are more GOP in Georgia. GA could become Illinois in a couple decades though.

Seems like it's more on a trajectory to become Maryland.

Biden won the white vote in Maryland. It would take some serious cultural realignment and the collapse of Southern Baptism for that to be remotely on the table in any ex-Confederate state (yes, even Virginia, where Trump still won whites by eight points).

[Non Swing Voter]

Whites are more GOP in Georgia. GA could become Illinois in a couple decades though.

Seems like it's more on a trajectory to become Maryland.

Biden won the white vote in Maryland. It would take some serious cultural realignment and the collapse of Southern Baptism for that to be remotely on the table in any ex-Confederate state (yes, even Virginia, where Trump still won whites by eight points).

I suppose that's right.  When I think of white voters in Maryland I always think of exurban and rural areas of the state and forget that there are a ton of liberal whites in Montgomery county and just outside Washington.  I suppose if Atlanta keeps booming it will bring in more progressive whites to the suburbs that way DC has but it's probably not going to shift as far left as Maryland.  That said I think the demographics could mirror Maryland going forward.  Two states with very high minority populations where most of it is African Americans.

[หมูเด้ง]

Racism.

[GregTheGreat657]

In Illinois, whites vote R+10, while in Georgia whites vote R+40. Also in the Illinois rurals with white majority populations, Trump did not get over 70% of the vote in any of them, while several white-majority counties in rural Georgia, Trump got over 80% of the vote. If white voters voted the same in Georgia as in Illinois, Georgia would be voting to the left of Illinois, as Illinois has a whiter population.

[Calthrina950]

In Illinois, whites vote R+10, while in Georgia whites vote R+40. Also in the Illinois rurals with white majority populations, Trump did not get over 70% of the vote in any of them, while several white-majority counties in rural Georgia, Trump got over 80% of the vote. If white voters voted the same in Georgia as in Illinois, Georgia would be voting to the left of Illinois, as Illinois has a whiter population.

This is incorrect. Trump got over 80% of the vote in Clay, Edwards, Jasper, and Wayne Counties, in overwhelmingly white and rural Southern Illinois. But overall, your argument is correct. Whites are about even in Illinois, with Trump (according to Reagent's tables), winning a narrow majority among them. In Georgia, on the other hand, Trump got over 70% of the white vote. Back in 2008, Obama did win a clear majority of the Illinois white vote, which explains why he broke 60% there that year, the best performance for either party in that state since at least the 1920s.

Whites are more GOP in Georgia. GA could become Illinois in a couple decades though.

Seems like it's more on a trajectory to become Maryland.

Biden won the white vote in Maryland. It would take some serious cultural realignment and the collapse of Southern Baptism for that to be remotely on the table in any ex-Confederate state (yes, even Virginia, where Trump still won whites by eight points).

I suppose that's right.  When I think of white voters in Maryland I always think of exurban and rural areas of the state and forget that there are a ton of liberal whites in Montgomery county and just outside Washington.  I suppose if Atlanta keeps booming it will bring in more progressive whites to the suburbs that way DC has but it's probably not going to shift as far left as Maryland.  That said I think the demographics could mirror Maryland going forward.  Two states with very high minority populations where most of it is African Americans.

It is fascinating to me how different Maryland is from states like Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina, given that they all have fairly similar racial demographics, in terms of there being a large black minority that comprises a quarter to a third of the overall population. Of course, in those Deep Southern States whites are ~75-90% Republican, while in Maryland, they are even or lean Democratic. This is to say nothing of the fact that Maryland's white voters are much more cosmopolitan, white-collar, and educated than those in the Deep South. If Maryland whites voted as Republican as those in the Deep South, Maryland would be a Safe R state. Hogan's reelection in 2018 demonstrates what this would have looked like, as he won over 70% of the white vote and defeated Jealous by nearly 13% overall.

[Roll Roons]

It is fascinating to me how different Maryland is from states like Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina, given that they all have fairly similar racial demographics, in terms of there being a large black minority that comprises a quarter to a third of the overall population. Of course, in those Deep Southern States whites are ~75-90% Republican, while in Maryland, they are even or lean Democratic. This is to say nothing of the fact that Maryland's white voters are much more cosmopolitan, white-collar, and educated than those in the Deep South. If Maryland whites voted as Republican as those in the Deep South, Maryland would be a Safe R state. Hogan's reelection in 2018 demonstrates what this would have looked like, as he won over 70% of the white vote and defeated Jealous by nearly 13% overall.

Hogan also got something like 30% of the black vote. Most Republicans in the Deep South never come anywhere close to that.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

White voters are much more conservative in Georgia, by and large, though that is shifting, and while I don’t think Georgia will be as Democratic as Illinois any time soon, it’ll pretty quickly become a Democratic-leaning state.

[Calthrina950]

It is fascinating to me how different Maryland is from states like Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina, given that they all have fairly similar racial demographics, in terms of there being a large black minority that comprises a quarter to a third of the overall population. Of course, in those Deep Southern States whites are ~75-90% Republican, while in Maryland, they are even or lean Democratic. This is to say nothing of the fact that Maryland's white voters are much more cosmopolitan, white-collar, and educated than those in the Deep South. If Maryland whites voted as Republican as those in the Deep South, Maryland would be a Safe R state. Hogan's reelection in 2018 demonstrates what this would have looked like, as he won over 70% of the white vote and defeated Jealous by nearly 13% overall.

Hogan also got something like 30% of the black vote. Most Republicans in the Deep South never come anywhere close to that.

That's also true.

[Thunder98]

In Illinois, whites vote R+10, while in Georgia whites vote R+40. Also in the Illinois rurals with white majority populations, Trump did not get over 70% of the vote in any of them, while several white-majority counties in rural Georgia, Trump got over 80% of the vote. If white voters voted the same in Georgia as in Illinois, Georgia would be voting to the left of Illinois, as Illinois has a whiter population.

Nope, Trump actually got over 70% of the vote in 45 Counties in IL and +80% in 5 Counties.

[Calthrina950]

In Illinois, whites vote R+10, while in Georgia whites vote R+40. Also in the Illinois rurals with white majority populations, Trump did not get over 70% of the vote in any of them, while several white-majority counties in rural Georgia, Trump got over 80% of the vote. If white voters voted the same in Georgia as in Illinois, Georgia would be voting to the left of Illinois, as Illinois has a whiter population.

Nope, Trump actually got over 70% of the vote in 45 Counties in IL and +80% in 5 Counties.

This map provides yet another demonstration of how "land doesn't vote, people do." Trump got over 60%, 70%, or 80% of the vote in 74 of Illinois' 102 counties, and Biden only won 14 counties, yet he defeated Trump by nearly 17%. County maps are exceptionally deceptive. I notice that Trump's best region of the state was IL-15, represented by the staunch Trumpist Mary Miller, who is much more extreme than her predecessor, John Shimkus.