1960: Kennedy/Humphrey vs Nixon/Dirksen

[Senator-elect Spark]

Who wins??

[johnpressman]

Nixon-Dirksen! This would have been the winning ticket even against Kennedy-Johnson.  Everett Dirksen was a brilliant speaker with a distinctive mellifluous voice, He even recorded an album of his readings: "Gallant Men".  A terrific campaigner, he was much loved in his native Illinois, ensuring that state for Nixon as well as helping the GOP ticket in other close Midwestern states such as Minnesota, Michigan and Missouri.

As for Kennedy- Humphrey, it is  a nonstarter. Kennedy picked LBJ to head off a movement to run slates of un-pledged Democratic Electors in the southern states. Several of these slates in Alabama and Mississippi actually won and 15 electors did not vote for Kennedy-Johnson, voting for Sen. Harry F. Byrd of Virginia in a last ditch attempt to deny Kennedy the Presidency. This, even despite LBJ's best and most persuasive efforts.

No, this ticket would have lost the South with Civil Rights crusader Humphrey on the ticket instead of Johnson.  Besides, Hubert's wife Muriel hated the Kennedys for accusing her Husband of being a WW2 draft-dodger during the 1960 primary campaign.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Nixon/Dirksen (R) 323 EV
Kennedy/Humphrey (D) 214 EV

It was HHH's actions at the 1948 Democratic National Convention (open advocacy of a Civil Rights platform) that provoked the Dixiecrat rebellion.  This was fresh in the minds of White Southern voters and White Conservative Democratic pols in the South.

Kennedy needed LBJ to win in 1960.  He MIGHT have won some of the South with a non-Southern pick such as Sen. Stuart Symington (D-MO), but HHH was totally unacceptable to the South.  Nixon and Dirksen were sufficiently conservative and there was already erosion from White Southern voters in their support of the Democratic Party.  Those most steadfast were steadfast in the hope that the Democratic Party would stand firm for States Rights and all that implied, yet here is a scenario where the VP candidate is calling for the end of State Rights in exchange for "walk(ing) in the sunshine of Human Rights".

A Kennedy/Humphrey ticket in 1960 would have been slammed.  The closest states in the South would  have been Arkansas and Louisiana, but I suspect that the White Protestants would have outvoted the Cajun Catholics in LA and the shifting of the rest of the South would have been felt in Arkansas (the least black of the entire South, demographically).  The selection of Dirksen would have been a masterstroke for Nixon and the selection of HHH would have sealed Kennedy's fate.  Kennedy needed to carry SOME of the South.  With HHH on the ticket he'd have lost every Southern state.

[johnpressman]

You are right on, Fuzzy Bear! LBJ was Kennedy's strongest VP candidate, heading off the "Unpledged Electors" revolt  as well as the slow drift of the Border States to the GOP, evidenced by Eisenhower's strong showing in the region in 1956.

Nixon, on the other hand, picked Henry Cabot Lodge with the notion that Lodge would keep the voters' interest in foreign policy, Nixon's strong suit.  It is interesting to wonder why Nixon, a seasoned campaigner, neglected to realize that Lodge would not help him win a single state! Presidential elections are won by a majority of votes by the Electoral College, not by the popular vote.  Kennedy knew he needed Texas' votes in his column, and only LBJ could ensure that result.

Nixon's VP choices in 1960 were extremely limited. Besides Lodge, Nixon could only choose Sen. Thurston Morton of KY., Reps. Gerald Ford of Michigan and Walter Judd of MN, none of which would have made much difference in his Electoral College total.  Only Sen Everett Dirksen could guarantee Illinois, as well as his regional popularity possibly swinging MI,MO, and MN to the GOP and winning the Presidency for Nixon in 1960.

[morgankingsley]

Fuzzy's map but SC, MS, AL going byrd. I just don't think those are ready to be republican YET

[MillennialModerate]

In 1960: Knowing what we know now I think this might be the only matchup that the GOP would win on - because of Dirksen of course. And because Humphrey would lose some southern votes.

Now if this matchup happened in ‘64….. JFK wins with over 400 EV (easy)

[Sir Mohamed]

Nixon wins because JFK doesn't have Johnson to help him in the South.



✓ Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Senator Everett Dirksen (R-IL): 275 EVs.; 49.8%
Senator John F. Kennedy (D-MA)/Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN):  235 EVs.; 48.1%
Senator Harry F. Byrd Sr. (D-VA)/??? (D-??): 27 EVs.; 1%