2024: The Story of a Election (a mini-TL)

[OBD]

2022 Midterms

House
Republicans 225 (+12)
Democrats 210 (-12)

Senate
Democrats 51 (+PA)
Republicans 49 (-PA)

Governors
Republicans 26 (-1, +KS, WI - AZ, GA, MD)
Democrats 24 (+1, +AZ, GA, MD - KS, WI)

The 2022 midterms were extremely perplexing. In a major turn from previous midterms, the incumbent Democratic Party narrowly won the popular vote, yet lost the House due to gerrymandering and latent geographic disadvantage. Meanwhile, Republicans failed to break through in the Senate, losing closely contested races in Arizona, Georgia, and New Hampshire, while also surrendering Pennsylvania to Democrat John Fetterman. Additionally, 2022 continued the trend of increased polarization, with gubernatorial and Senate results closely tracking each other (with the exception of New England, where a triad of popular Republicans won re-election in deep blue territory). As a result, both sides had pickups to boast of. For the GOP, Mike Pompeo knocked off Laura Kelly in Kansas, while former Lt. Gov Rebecca Kleefish defeated Governor Tony Evers in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Stacey Abrams narrowly defeated Republican primary victor (and staunch Trumpist) Vernon Jones in a double-barrel runoff with fellow Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock, avowed progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego defeated hardcore Trumper Kelli Ward in Arizona, as well as picking up Maryland by default after Governor Hogan’s retirement.

Consequently, Democrats and Republicans alike claimed victory in the midterms - but, in Washington, the actual upshot from the results was clear. With the loss of the House, Biden’s trifecta had been broken, and while Democrats now had slightly more margin for error in the Senate they no longer had the ability to pass legislation without Republican votes. The slow trickle of legislation Democrats had managed through reconciliation would come to a full halt in 2023.

However, that was not to say House Republicans were united heading into the 118th Congress. Former President Trump still held an immense amount of sway within the GOP, and the party was bitterly divided over him and his legacy. In a controversial move, many Trump loyalists moved in the House to elect him as Speaker, much to the consternation of now-Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who now lacked the votes to become Speaker. Then, in an even more shocking turn of events, Democrats and Republicans not sold on Trump joined together to narrowly elect Fred Upton - a relatively moderate GOPer with a strong working relationship with President Biden - as Speaker. Notably, this occurred with the consent of McCarthy, who was forced to compromise with Democrats to elect a Speaker due to the intransigence of the Trump wing (egged on by Trump himself). The election of Speaker Upton and the defeat of Trumpist candidates in close 2022 elections further exacerbated the divides in the GOP as the 2024 primary season approached.

“Report: Biden ‘frustrated’ with partisan gridlock, potentially seeking an out”
Politico; March 1, 2023

“Will he or won’t he? Trump teases 2024 run at Daytona Beach rally”
NBC; March 6, 2023

“Sources - Harris camp pressing President Biden to retire”
New York Post; March 8, 2023

“DeSantis prepares candidacy, but Trump wild card hangs over GOP hopefuls”
Miami Herald; March 10, 2023

“With AOC ruling out run, progressives search for standard-bearer to face Biden - or Harris”
Vox; March 14, 2023

“Speaker Upton - ‘I will not be a candidate in the 2024 presidential election’”
CNN; March 20, 2023

“Mixed signals out of Bidenworld and Trumpworld as primary approaches”
ABC; March 24, 2023

“BREAKING: Justice Stephen Breyer to Retire May 1”
New York Times; March 26, 2023

“With first Supreme Court appointment, Biden has chance to cement legacy”
NBC; March 29, 2023

“Americans have had enough of the Democrats’s war on American values and the American taxpayer. It’s time for a proven conservative leader to step up to the plate and return common sense to the White House”
Nikki Haley, Myrtle Beach rally; April 1, 2023

“Railing against Biden policy, former SC Governor Nikki Haley becomes first major candidate in 2024 GOP primary in surprise entry”
Fox News; April 2, 2023

“Is Haley the candidate of the anti-Trump GOP?”
Washington Post; April 5, 2023

“Trump leads Haley in hypothetical two-way primary 64-23, still hinting at run”
New York Post; April 9, 2023

“Andrew Yang remains sole Democrat in 2024 primary - heavy underdog for nomination”
CNN; April 14, 2023

“Former MD Governor Larry Hogan announces candidacy as standard-bearer for anti-Trump Republicans”
Fox News; April 17, 2023

“Biden to nominate Ketanji Brown Jackson for SC seat - expected to narrowly pass Senate”
New York Times; April 19, 2023

“With early endorsements from Baker, Scott, Upton, Romney, Hogan campaign gains momentum”
Politico; April 23, 2023

“On 4th anniversary of 2020 candidacy, President Biden still mum on 2024 run, is ‘focused’ on filling Supreme Court vacancy”
CNN; April 25, 2023

“Is Kamala Harris quietly assembling a presidential campaign?”
Fox News; April 29, 2023

“As Breyer steps down, Senators prepare for Jackson hearing”
Washington Post; May 1, 2023

“Report: Bloomberg gearing up for second presidential run if Biden retires”
New York Post; May 6, 2023

“Frustration among prominent Republicans as Trump continues to tease run, holding field in limbo”
Politico; May 10, 2023

“Amid speculation over 2024 run, Biden meets with Obamas at the White House”
CNN; May 15, 2023

“Sources: Biden leaning against running, but don’t expect decision until Supreme Court vacancy is filled”
New York Times; May 21, 2023

“Poll: 54% of Republican primary voters support Trump running again”
Fox News; May 23, 2023

“Trump seen with Mike Lindell before Huntsville rally”
NBC; May 28, 2023

“Manchin announces support for Jackson nomination, sealing the deal for Democrats”
Vox; June 2, 2023

“With both primaries in limbo, prospective candidates assemble campaign staffs”
Politico; June 5, 2023

“Trump ‘widely expected’ to declare run - though allies continue to cast doubt on rumors”
ABC; June 10, 2023

“Will a Trump entry force Biden’s hand?”
538; June 12, 2023

“Trump will make ‘easy pickings’ of divided intraparty opposition, GOP strategists say”
Fox News; June 15, 2023

“Haley in difficult position as Hogan consolidates anti-Trump support, third Trump candidacy looms”
Politico; June 17, 2023

“Poll: Just 38% of Democratic voters want Biden to run again”
Gallup; June 18, 2023

“Tension in Democratic circles as Biden waffles on retirement amid Trump rumors”
Vox; June 20, 2023

“What is Donald Trump waiting for?”
New York Post; June 21, 2023

“Ketanji Brown Jackson confirmed to Supreme Court 51-49”
New York Times; June 22, 2023

“Biden to make ‘important announcement’ on the 23rd”
CNN; June 22, 2023

[OBD]

“It has been an honor to serve as your President...however, I will not be seeking re-election to this office.”
President Joe Biden; June 23, 2023

“BREAKING: Joe Biden drops out of Presidential race, blowing Democratic field wide open”
CNN; June 23, 2023

“Report: Harris ‘was aware’ of Biden plans, preparing announcement as progressives ‘scramble’ to find candidate”
The Hill; June 24, 2023

“HE’S IN - Trump declares 2024 run at Miami rally, seeking to reverse 2020 loss”
Fox News; June 25, 2023

“Amid Trump entry, Haley suspends largely unsuccessful bid - makes no endorsement”
Politico; June 26, 2023

“Harris officially enters presidential race at LA mega-rally”
LA Times; June 26, 2023

“Republicans line up behind Trump - though a notable minority still backs Hogan”
Fox News; June 27, 2023

“Will Democrats clear a path for Harris?”
Vox; June 28, 2023

“Was Biden’s delay a ploy to cripple opposition candidates?”
Jacobin; June 29, 2023

“As Harris racks up endorsements, AOC reportedly ‘re-evaluating’ decision to sit out”
Politico; July 1, 2023

“Discord in the ranks as Harris shuffles staff - reports of dysfunction abound”
Bloomberg; July 3, 2023

“Billionaire Michael Bloomberg jumps into race, challenging Harris with massive ad blitz”
NBC; July 4, 2023

“9 reported injured at protests in wake of bombastic Trump July 4 rally”
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette; July 5, 2023

“As Democratic Left cries out for candidate, Inslee, Merkley, Buttigieg mull runs”
The Oregonian; July 6, 2023

“Fetterman: Ohio Senator Brown ‘by far the best candidate’ to win back disaffected Rust Belt Democrats”
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette; July 8, 2023

“Governor Abrams rules out presidential run - is ‘focused on Georgians’”
Atlanta Journal-Constitution; July 9, 2023

“Trump leads Hogan 59-25 in latest GOP primary poll”
New York Post; July 9, 2023

“Reports of toxic workplace under VP Harris continue to proliferate”
Washington Post; July 11, 2023

“Rep. Ocasio-Cortez doubles down, refuses to enter 2024 race”
Jacobin; July 12, 2023

“Report: Democratic confidence in Harris ‘at a nadir’ as ‘multiple candidates’ eye primary challenge”
Politico; July 13, 2023

“Harris blasts attacks on her management abilities as ‘character assassination’ as her position in the Democratic primary weakens”
LA Times; July 14, 2023

“BREAKING: Rep. Nina Turner forms exploratory committee”
CNN; July 15, 2023

“Turner might be just a sophomore representative - but he run will also likely have the might of the Sanders wing behind it”
Nate Silver; July 16, 2023

“Who is Nina Turner, and why is she dangerous for America?”
New York Post; July 16, 2023

“Turner racks up Sanders, Justice Democrat endorsements as Harris campaign flounders”
The Hill; July 17, 2023

“RADICAL SOCIALIST Turner is even more crazy than Kommie Kamala! We’re going to send them packing though, believe me.”
Donald Trump at Houston rally; July 18, 2023

“Poll: Harris 36, Turner 18, Bloomberg 14”
CNN; July 19, 2023

“Prominent Democrats express concern over Turner’s electability”
NBC; July 20, 2023

“Governor Jay Inslee forms exploratory committee - Oregon Sen. Merkley to sit race out”
The Seattle Times; July 21, 2023

"As Trump rises once more, polarization is at an all-time high"
New York Times; July 22, 2023

“As Democrats fall into division, Republicans close ranks behind Trump”
OANN; July 23, 2023

“In surprise announcement, Senator Sherrod Brown enters presidential race, pledging to fight for ‘the forgotten American’”
Politico; July 24, 2023

“Bloomberg gaining ground with prominent establishment figures”
ABC; July 24, 2023

“Term-limited Gov. Cooper jumps in crowded D primary”
Charlotte Observer; July 25, 2023

“With Secretary Buttigieg, Fmr. Governor Cuomo now in the race, the Democratic primary has become a free-for-all”
538; July 26, 2023

“Coronation Cancelled - How Kamala Blew It”
Washington Post; July 27, 2023

“Report: Trump ‘gleeful’ at Democrats’s intraparty discord, turning focus to general election”
Fox News; July 27, 2023

“We’re not going to let the elites win! We’re not going to let them steal another election! No, we’re going to make America gr-”
Donald Trump at Indianapolis rally; July 28, 2023

“BREAKING: Fmr. President Trump suffers possible stroke on stage, rushed to hospital”
Indianapolis Star; July 28, 2023

Biden Approval
Approve 49%
Disapprove 45%
Undecided/Don't Care 6%

Generic Congressional Ballot
Democratic Party 47%
Republican Party 46%
Undecided/Other 7%

Republican Primary
Fmr. President Donald Trump (R-FL) 60%
Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) 24%
Undecided/Other 16%

Democratic Primary
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) 27%
Representative Nina Turner (D-OH) 13%
Businessman Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) 11%
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) 8%
Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA) 6%
Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) 5%
Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC) 5%
Businessman Andrew Yang (D-NY) 4%
Fmr. Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) 2%
Fmr. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 0%
Undecided/Other 19%

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Sadly it doesn’t seem like Pete really has a chance here, so I’m team Bloomberg

[BaconCat]

Team Brown/Inslee. I mean he is my Governor but Brown is neat idk (plus Brown probably isn't winning re-election here imo. Inslee is if he tries, though honestly I hope this is his last term. Governor Ferguson plz)

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I’m rooting for Inslee!

[Stm85]

Tentative Team Hogan but would reevaluate if a more conservative non-Trump option gets into the race.

[OBD]

“Donald Trump falls ill at Indiana rally, reportedly in critical condition”
CNN; July 29, 2023

“Republicans, Democrats alike express well-wishes as 45th President slips into coma”
NBC; July 30, 2023

“Can Trump still run? GOP Strategists divided”
Fox News; July 30, 2023

“Trump family spotted at Indianapolis airport”
Indianapolis Star; August 1, 2023

“Doctors: Trump is ‘stable’, yet to regain consciousness”
CNN; August 1, 2023

“No.”
Rep. Nina Turner, when asked if she was concerned for Former President Trump; August 2, 2023

“Fmr. President Trump wakes up, ‘well on way’ to partial recovery”
Fox News; August 3, 2023

“Report: Trump expected to suffer from ‘lingering effects’ of stroke, doctors say”
New York Post; August 3, 2023

“Unfortunately, I will not be your candidate for President in 2024. But I will keep up the fight against Sleepy Joe, Kommie Kamala, and the radical liberals that want to DESTROY AMERICA!”
Donald Trump; August 4, 2023

“GOP race reset as health issues force Trump out”
CNN; August 4, 2023

“Who will take the Trump mantle? GOP hopefuls scramble to lay their claim”
Politico; August 4, 2023

“Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico declare runs, adding to crowded Democratic field”
The Hill; August 5, 2023

“A New Left for a New South: Can a pastor from Atlanta become America’s next President?”
Atlanta Journal-Constitution; August 6, 2023

“First Primary Debate for Democrats set for August 15 in Ames”
New York Times; August 7, 2023

“Sherrod Brown announces 99-county Iowa tour”
NBC; August 7, 2023

“Bloomberg’s ad blitz outguns all comers - will it win him the nomination?”
The Des Moines Register; August 8, 2023

“Iowa Democrats; We Swear We’ll Get It Right This Time”
The Onion; August 9, 2023

“Trump Jr. Mulls Run”
Fox News; August 10, 2023

“In first GOP declaration since Trump exit, FL Governor DeSantis throws hat in ring”
Orlando Sentinel; August 12, 2023

“Report: Haley planning to re-enter GOP race, Hawley, Cruz likely to run”
Washington Post; August 13, 2023

“Turner/Bloomberg fireworks at first Dem debate - Inslee, Warnock impress”
NBC; August 16, 2023

“Mike Pence enters presidential race, calls for ‘a return to conservative values’”
Indianapolis Star; August 16, 2023

“Former Trump supporters despise Pence, lukewarm on other candidates”
New York Post; August 17, 2023

“Voters: Inslee’s climate messaging far more effective on second campaign for Presidency”
The Oregonian; August 19, 2023

“Ted Cruz launches second attempt at Presidency, forgoing Senate race”
Houston Chronicle; August 20, 2023

“Controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz forms exploratory committee”
CNN; August 21, 2023

“Sherrod Brown is gambling that grassroots still matter in 2024. Do they?”
538; August 22, 2023

“Cotton: I’m all-in for 2024”
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette; August 22, 2023

“Candidates flock to Mar-a-Lago to court Trump blessing”
NBC; August 24, 2023

“Report: Mike Lindell weighing run, seen meeting with Trump in Florida”
Fox News; August 24, 2023

“Ducey declares run as MTG declines - but Southern predominance in GOP primary remains”
Atlanta Journal-Constitution; August 26, 2023

“Despite new candidacies, Hogan maintains control of anti-Trump GOP support”
Politico; August 27, 2023

“Could Donald Trump Jr. be gearing up for a run?”
New York Post; August 29, 2023

“Harris attacked from all sides at second Democratic debate as poll numbers slip”
CNN; August 30, 2023

“Turner campaign bus attacked in Newton”
Des Moines Register; September 1, 2023

“Amid continued rumors of staff dysfunction, is Kamala burning out again?”
Vox; September 2, 2023

“Lindell announces ‘major event’ in Minneapolis”
Minneapolis Star-Tribune; September 3, 2023

“Trump plane sighted at Twin Cities airport”
New York Post; September 5, 2023

Biden Approval
Approve 48 (-1)
Disapprove 46 (+1)
Undecided/Don't Care 6 (--)

Generic Congressional Ballot
Democratic Party 47 (--)
Republican Party 47 (+1)
Undecided/Other 6 (-1)

Republican Primary
Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) 21%
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 13%
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) 12%
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence 10%
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) 8%
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) 7%
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) 5%
Fmr. Governor Doug Ducey (R-AZ) 4%
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) 3%
Undecided/Other 17%

Democratic Primary
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) 20% (-7)
Businessman Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) 11% (--)
Representative Nina Turner (D-OH) 11% (-2)
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) 9% (+1)
Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) 9% (+9)
Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA) 8% (+2)
Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) 5% (--)
Businessman Andrew Yang (D-NY) 5% (+1)
Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC) 4% (-1)
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) 4% (+4)
Fmr. Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) 1% (-1)
Undecided/Other 13% (-6)

[Continential]

Brown/Yang/Warnock 2024!

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Brown/Yang/Warnock/Cooper 2024!

Though I fully expect that I will be forced to vote for Harris to stop Bloomberg.

[Stm85]

Haley 2024!

[Meatball Ron]

Interesting! Go Harris!

[😥]

Brown for President
Warnock for Vice President

[Utah Neolib]

Go Cooper! (or Inslee, or Warnock or Grisham)

[Left Wing]

I’d support whoever was more viable in my state by the time of the primary between Inslee and Brown. Likely Inslee since I’m in Washington. Also really like Warnock and Cooper.

[OBD]

“Mike Lindell declares run for President, backed by Trump”
Minneapolis Star-Tribune; September 5, 2023

“With GOP’s biggest endorsement in pocket, Lindell could be the new favorite”
 New York Post; September 6, 2023

“The Second Trump”
The Atlantic; September 6, 2023

“Lindell entry met with disbelief, ridicule by Democratic strategists”
NBC; September 6, 2023

“He doesn’t seem to be a serious candidate, no”
Larry Hogan at Manchester press conference; September 7, 2023

“Report: Harris campaign fires chief-of-staff - complete reshuffle inbound”
Politico; September 9, 2023

“Bloomberg takes aim at moderate Democratic votes amid Harris collapse”
CNN; September 10, 2023

“Poll: Lindell trails all Democratic contenders by varying margins”
538; September 12, 2023

“Lindell faces scrutiny over past scandals, MyPillow mismanagement”
Fox News; September 12, 2023

“Laser-focus on climate enables continued Inslee breakout at latest D debate”
ABC; September 13, 2023

“The Bloomberg-Turner feud continues, but the New York billionaire now faces attacks on all fronts”
Politico; September 15, 2023

“Lindell stumbles in first debate appearance with heavy-handed attacks”
CNN; September 17, 2023

“Strong performances from other progressive candidates sap Turner’s momentum”
NBC; September 18, 2023

“Poll: Harris no longer frontrunner as Bloomberg pulls even, multiple candidates close behind”
538; September 20, 2023

“Larry Hogan has done an excellent job of keeping his base together - but does his support have a ceiling?”
Nate Silver; September 21, 2023

“Is a second Harris exit on the table?”
Fox News; September 23, 2023

“Trumpers conflicted on whether to back his chosen successor”
Vox; September 24, 2023

“Retired NBA Star LeBron James endorses Turner, eying Brown’s Senate seat”
Fox News; September 26, 2023

“Harris bounces back in fiery debate performance as Bloomberg shows signs of fatigue”
CNN; September 27, 2023

“With significant baggage and a fatal lack of momentum, Cuomo bows out of race”
New York Times; October 1, 2023

“Gingrich: Lindell is a ‘gaffe machine’”
Atlanta Journal-Constitution; October 3, 2023

“Poll: Warnock campaign’s heavy investment in South Carolina paying dividends”
538; October 6, 2023

“Kamala’s numbers have improved, but can she hold her base together?”
NBC; October 8, 2023

“New early primaries in Oregon, Illinois add intriguing strategic wrinkle to race”
Politico; October 11, 2023

“Governor Lujan Grisham faces blowback for moving NM primary to Super Tuesday”
Albuquerque Journal; October 13, 2023

“Fourth Democratic debate a slugfest, flurry of attacks leaves no clear winner”
CNN; October 18, 2023

“Senator Manchin to retire, denounces partisanship and polarization in fiery statement”
WVNews; October 20, 2023

“With Manchin retirement, Democrats’s hopes of holding the Senate continue fading”
Cook Political Report; October 23, 2023

“While Trump remains ‘hobbled’ by stroke, he continues to make appearances for Lindell campaign”
New York Post; October 26, 2023

“DeSantis threads the line between hardcore Trumpism and moderation, emerging as a third GOP frontrunner”
Fox News; October 28, 2023

“With Ducey and Cotton exiting, the GOP field begins to thin”
Politico; November 1, 2023

Biden Approval
Approve 48 (--)
Disapprove 46 (--)
Undecided/Don't Care 6 (--)

Generic Congressional Ballot
Democratic Party 47 (--)
Republican Party 46 (-1)
Undecided/Other 7 (+1)

Republican Primary
Businessman Mike Lindell (R-MN) 20% (+20)
Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) 19% (-2)
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 17% (+4)
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) 10% (-2)
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 7% (-3)
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) 7% (-1)
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) 6% (-1)
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) 1% (-2)
Undecided/Other 13% (-4)

Democratic Primary
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) 16% (-4)
Businessman Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) 14% (+3)
Representative Nina Turner (D-OH) 13% (+2)
Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA) 11% (+3)
Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) 10% (+1)
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) 9% (--)
Businessman Andrew Yang (D-NY) 5% (--)
Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) 4% (-1)
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) 4% (--)
Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC) 3% (-1)
Undecided/Other 11% (-2)

Note: As we lead up into the primaries, I'll be doing a format change to better depict the strategies each campaign is using (and, with a deadlocked Congress and relatively static fields, the news cycle is slower anyway). After this update there'll be a primary overview before we get into the contests.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

A Lindell vs. Turner campaign would basically ensure some sort of celebrity/billionaire third-party entry, I think.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Fascinating! And well written. 

Go DeSantis!

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

All in for Bloomberg

[OBD]

Primary Calendar:
January 30: Iowa
February 7: New Hampshire
February 18: Nevada
February 20: Oregon
February 25: South Carolina
February 27: Illinois
March 5: Super Tuesday - Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington
March 12: Guam, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Northern Mariana Islands
March 19: Arizona, Florida, Ohio
March 26: Georgia, Puerto Rico
April 2: Virgin Islands
April 9: Louisiana, Wyoming
April 16: Wisconsin
April 30: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 7: Indiana
May 14: Nebraska, Kansas, West Virginia
May 21: Kentucky
May 28: New Jersey
June 5: Montana, South Dakota, DC

We’re on the eve of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus, and both parties have wide-open races. In preparation for primary season, we’ve summarized the major happenings in both presidential contests and will provide an overview of the strategic situation for individual candidates. Let’s dive in.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/D-HS.phtml - D delegates
https://www.270towin.com/2020-republican-nomination/ - R delegates

Summary

Democratic Primary

The main story throughout a bruising, chaotic campaign season has been Kamala Harris - after initial blunders led her to lose frontrunner status, a late comeback through fiery debate performances and energetic campaigning have allowed her to recover some ground and stay ahead of the pack. The Vice President was additionally buoyed by somewhat successful attempts at accusing the media of launching a concerted smear campaign against her based on limited evidence. However, while her campaign has seemingly stabilized, its state strategy has altered considerably. In what some pundits have termed the ‘Biden strategy’, Harris has basically pulled out of Iowa and New Hampshire (states with very white, anti-establishment electorates), and is laser-focused on remaining in the latter four early states, believing that victories or strong performances there could reinvigorate her campaign.

Consistently pulling second in polls has been billionaire Michael Bloomberg, one of the most controversial figures in the primary. A former Republican, Bloomberg has ran as a staunch moderate, promising to continue Biden’s work as a bipartisan deal-broker while fighting against extremism on both sides - an approach that has allowed him to consolidate support in the Democrats’s moderate and establishment wings. Additionally, his campaign has been characterized by a liberal use of personal funds to run endless ad barrages across key states, drowning out nearly all opposing efforts. That said, Bloomberg faces numerous challenges - while his debate performances were not as atrocious as in 2020, his frequent feuding with progressive Nina Turner has hampered his ability to get his message across, while also creating negative press. And, he is loathed by a large portion of the Democratic base, and is not particularly strong in any region. Using his endless wealth, Bloomberg is contesting virtually every state, and is hoping for good performances across the board to establish himself as the frontrunner.

Turner, meanwhile, has consistently run as Bernie Sanders’s standard-bearer, hoping to replicate and expand his coalition to win over a divided field. This strategy has had mixed results - while she’s maintained a lot of the Vermont Senator’s base, her electability has been repeatedly attacked (not to mention right-wing media demonizing her), and previous statements have brought into question her loyalty to the Democratic Party. Additionally, other progressive-leaning candidates in the race have sapped her base of support. Despite this, though, her campaign is buoyed by strong enthusiasm from young, leftist voters, and has managed to improve her image among left-skeptic Democratic voters. Turner’s campaign has put resources into every early state, but her focuses remain clear - Turner hopes to win in New Hampshire (where Sanders won twice), and Oregon (a progressive stronghold), while performing well in minority-heavy states like Illinois and South Carolina.

In a surprising reversal from a 2020 flop, Washington Governor Jay Inslee has benefited from a strong climate platform to surge into the second tier of Democratic candidates, consistently polling in double-digits nationwide despite struggling with minority support. Putting together a string of good debate performances while increasing his name recognition across the country, Inslee has the potential to ride good early performances to the nomination - especially if another prominent candidate burns out. His campaign has invested primarily in northern states, but none so more than Oregon - Inslee hopes to win big in his state’s southern neighbor. Additionally, his campaign has spent significant time in Iowa, Illinois, and New Hampshire, hoping that progressive-leaning voters there can give his candidacy another boost.

A somewhat late entry to the race, Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock is no stranger to the national spotlight, having starred in competitive, Senate-shaping runoffs in both 2021 and 2023. And after two narrow victories, Senator Warnock has jumped into the presidential race, touting his ability to win in swing states with an energetic pragmatic progressive platform. His charm and poise have allowed him to perform strongly in debates, and his candidacy provides an alternative for minority voters unenthused by Harris and leery of Turner. Warnock has staked his campaign on a South Carolina win, visiting every county while attempting to consolidate African-American support. Additionally, he has made plays for Nevada and Illinois (though mostly the latter), hoping to share in the delegate spoils and build up momentum for the South-heavy Super Tuesday slate.

Rounding out the Democratic primary’s top six contenders is Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown. While his entry was hyped by political pundits and forums, he has not been able to gain as much traction as some hoped. Running as a left-populist, his campaign’s main selling point has been restoring the Democratic Party’s appeal to America’s working class - a demographic that may already be lost for left-of-center candidates. However, he has done decently in debates, with fiery rhetoric earning him a few viral moments, and his focus on strong on-the-ground campaigning could pay off with rural voters. As his two 99-county tours there evidence, Brown is committed to winning Iowa, a state nearly perfect for his brand of politics - if he underperforms there, it could be a death knell for his campaign.

The remaining candidates are seen as extreme underdogs, and barring an overperformance in the early states are likely outs. In his second presidential run, Andrew Yang’s high name recognition has allowed him to retain and build upon his support from 2020 - however, his coalition is narrow, and is unlikely to carry him to any state victories. In addition to desperate attempts to get above 15% in Iowa and New Hampshire, Yang hopes his campaign has a chance in Oregon, Nevada, and Illinois, fairly progressive states with notable Asian populations. Secretary Pete Buttigieg, another 2020 retread, appears to be running out of time as well - his campaign is banking on a repeat of his strong Iowa performance, and a failure to do so could end his run prematurely. The last two major candidates in - Governors Michelle Lujan Grisham and Roy Cooper - are hoping that their home states can give them the momentum boost they need to launch a Hail Mary for the nomination, or at the least gain some bargaining chips for the likely contested convention.

Note: The Republican primary and polling for both races will be out in the next update.

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Come on Bloomberg, you can do it. Show us how it’s done, put your back into it. Mitt Romney, Perot and Buffet, those amateurs can freaking suck it. Screw their wives, suck their blood, Come on Bloomberg you can do it!

Michael Bloomberg! CEO, Entrepeneur, former mayor from New York! Michael Bloombeeeeerg

[Utah Neolib]

CMON WARNOCK AND INSLEE YOU CAN DO IT

[OBD]

Republican Primary

Interestingly, the Republican primary has several parallels with its Democratic counterpart - three top contenders with the remainder of the field scrambling for position. However, the gap between the GOP frontrunners and the stragglers is significantly larger, and it’s likely that the candidate pool will contract significantly following the first six contests.

The bombastic, out-of-control campaign of Mike Lindell, who commentators have labelled a second Trump, has defined the Republican primary following Trump himself exiting due to health issues. Lindell has taken full advantage of his possession of the Trump endorsement to leap to the front of the pack - however, multiple gaffes and allegations of business impropriety (from his management of MyPillow) have prevented him from running away with the nomination. He has run on a staunch Trumpist platform, advocating for the 45th President’s policy while continuing to propagate conspiracy theories regarding the 2020 election and the Democratic Party. And while he has done an excellent job of firing up the base, he is viewed with distaste by more establishment-minded Republicans, which could put a ceiling on his support both in the primary and the general election (where he trails significantly relative to GOP rivals in hypothetical polls). On the campaign trail, Lindell is contesting every early state, but has put extra effort in Iowa, which borders his home state of Minnesota.

In an unlikely second is former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan. Running as a ‘compassionate conservative’ who has promised to move the Republican Party on from Trump, Hogan’s comparatively long time on the campaign trail has given him an edge even as the field has expanded drastically. In order to consolidate his support after Trump’s exit, Hogan has shifted to the right as the primary has gone on (while maintaining staunch anti-Trump language), which has allowed him to remain among the frontrunners. His candidacy has multiple concerns to deal with, though - with a majority of the GOP electorate still supporting Trump, getting a majority of delegates will be exceedingly difficult, and the lack of Trumpist support may cripple him in the general despite increased Democratic and suburbanite crossover. Hogan has campaigned heavily in New Hampshire (which has a notoriously mavericky GOP electorate), and hopes to perform well in the comparatively moderate Northeast.

Rounding out the frontrunners is perhaps the strongest GOP candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Bridging the gap between Lindell and Hogan, DeSantis is well-spoken while being strongly committed to the conservative cause. Under his belt is numerous policy accomplishments (including a nationalized fight against ‘critical race theory’), as well as a very strong re-election performance in swingy Florida. And while GOP strategists believe he’s their party’s best shot in the general election, primary voters aren’t as moved - while a competent campaign apparatus has allowed him to elevate himself from the pack, his appeal to the Trumpist and moderate wings of the party has been somewhat limited. As the sole Southerner of the frontrunners, DeSantis has focused on South Carolina and other states south of the Mason-Dixon line, while also making a concerted play for the large delegate prize of Illinois.

The sole 2016 candidate still in the GOP field, Ted Cruz has once again struggled to build a coalition. While his entry was initially met with fanfare, Lindell has stolen his Trumpist support while DeSantis has crowded him out of his own lane. Mediocre debate performances have also not helped his case. Running on a very Trumpist platform, Cruz has focused on building support among Hispanic Republicans (besides those in Florida, who are rabidly pro-DeSantis) as well as conservatives not sold on Lindell, painting himself as someone just as pro-Trump as Lindell without the baggage - an approach that has allowed him to stay in the game while putting limited pressure on the frontrunners. Cruz has attempted to replicate his strong 2016 Iowa performance, investing significantly in the state - however, his most important target remains his home state of Texas, which votes on Super Tuesday. His performance in Texas will likely make-or-break his candidacy.

Rounding out the field are three candidates thought to be strong on paper who have underperformed. Former Vice President Mike Pence has been unable to shake antipathy from the GOP’s right wing, and has struggled to find a lane amid the rise of DeSantis and Hogan’s continued strong performances. Pence will likely need good results in Iowa, New Hampshire and Illinois to justify staying in the race. Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, a rising star in the GOP, may have run four years too early - he has struggled to build name recognition and has largely been overshadowed by similar candidacies. Like Pence, he has staked his campaign on Midwestern states, though he may try to hold out to Missouri’s relatively early primary. The on-again, off-again Nikki Haley candidacy has failed to gain traction, though has been kept alive by the prospect of a home-state victory in South Carolina. And, struggling under a continued criminal investigation and a general lack of enthusiasm, Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz's bid for the White House will almost certainly fall short. 

Theoretical Head-to-Head Polling

with Lindell
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 48%
Mike Lindell (R-MN) 38%
Undecided/Other 14%

Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) 46%
Mike Lindell (R-MN) 39%
Undecided/Other 15%

Nina Turner (D-OH) 43%
Mike Lindell (R-MN) 39%
Undecided/Other 18%

Jay Inslee (D-WA) 47%
Mike Lindell (R-MN) 35%
Undecided/Other 18%

Raphael Warnock (D-GA) 47%
Mike Lindell (R-MN) 36%
Undecided/Other 17%

Sherrod Brown (D-OH) 46%
Mike Lindell (R-MN) 34%
Undecided/Other 20%

with Hogan

Kamala Harris (D-CA) 46%
Larry Hogan (R-MD) 42%
Undecided/Other 12%

Michael Bloomberg (D-CA) 44%
Larry Hogan (R-MD) 43%
Undecided/Other 13%

Larry Hogan (R-MD) 45%
Nina Turner (D-OH) 39%
Undecided/Other 16%

Jay Inslee (D-WA) 45%
Larry Hogan (R-MD) 40%
Undecided/Other 15%

Raphael Warnock (D-GA) 45%
Larry Hogan (R-MD) 42%
Undecided/Other 13%

with Ron DeSantis

Kamala Harris (D-CA) 44%
Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 44%
Undecided/Other 12%

Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 47%
Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) 42%
Undecided/Other 11%

Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 46%
Nina Turner (D-OH) 39%
Undecided/Other 15%

Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 43%
Jay Inslee (D-WA) 43%
Undecided/Other 14%

Raphael Warnock (D-GA) 45%
Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 44%
Undecided/Other 15%

with Cruz
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 46%
Ted Cruz (R-TX) 43%
Undecided/Other 11%

Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) 44%
Ted Cruz (R-TX) 44%
Undecided/Other 12%

Ted Cruz (R-TX) 44%
Nina Turner (D-OH) 41%
Undecided/Other 15%

others
Generic Democrat 45%
Josh Hawley (R-MO) 41%
Undecided/Other 14%

Generic Democrat 43%
Nikki Haley (R-SC) 41%
Undecided/Other 16%

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Assuming you're intending to parody Bo Burnham, I see you're a man of culture as well.

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Assuming you're intending to parody Bo Burnham, I see you're a man of culture as well.

I think you’re the only one who got the reference

[OBD]

Iowa Caucus - Democratic 40 delegates
Sherrod Brown (D-OH) 26.85% 19 delegates ✔
Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) 22.88% 13 delegates
Nina Turner (D-OH) 17.10% 7 delegates
Jay Inslee (D-WA) 11.29% 1 delegate
Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) 7.04%
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 5.15%
Andrew Yang (D-NY) 3.73%
Raphael Warnock (D-GA) 3.38%
Roy Cooper (D-NC) 1.18%
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) 0.76%
Others 0.64%

Iowa Caucus - Republican 40 delegates
Mike Lindell (R-MN) 28.31% 23 delegates ✔
Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 17.35% 8 delegates
Josh Hawley (R-MO) 15.89% 7 delegates
Ted Cruz (R-TX) 13.21% 2 delegates
Larry Hogan (R-MD) 11.06%
Mike Pence (R-IN) 9.25%
Nikki Haley (R-SC) 3.12%
Matt Gaetz (R-FL) 0.69%
Other 1.12%

"Brown, Lindell win Iowa Caucuses - Buttigieg suspends campaign"
Des Moines Register; January 31, 2024

"Sweeping rural counties, Ohio Senator Brown surges back into contention off Iowa win"
Politico; February 1, 2024

"Report: Mike Pence to suspend campaign, endorse Hogan"
Fox News; February 2, 2024

"The traitors have teamed up to commit fraud on the GOP. Vote Lindell!"
Donald Trump; February 2, 2024

"After strong Iowa finish, Hawley campaign looks to Illinois"
Chicago Tribune; February 2, 2024

"Increase in New Hampshire brain trauma patients attributed to repeated exposure to Bloomberg ads"
The Onion; February 3, 2024

"Campaigning in Nevada, Harris shows 'little concern' regarding Iowa results"
Los Angeles Times; February 3, 2024

"Turner rallies with Sanders, AOC in Manchester in final NH push"
CNN; February 4, 2024

"Hogan campaign left searching after Iowa underperformance"
New York Post; February 4, 2024

"Lindell vs. Bloomberg - America's nightmare election?"
Vox; February 4, 2024

"Multiple no-shows at New Hampshire debate as Turner, Bloomberg spar for the Granite State"
WMUR-9; February 5, 2024

"The Lindell campaign is the definition of chaos"
Washington Post; February 5, 2024

"Attempting to build on Iowa win, Brown makes last play for NH swing voters"
Politico; February 6, 2024

"Do early primaries still matter?"
538; February 6, 2024

"Sununu, Pence make appearances for Hogan in Concord"
Fox News; February 6, 2024

"Amid high turnout, New Hampshire races a 'dead heat'"
CNN; February 7, 2024