2036 Presidential Election

[CentristRepublican]

These are the results for the 2036 presidential contest. How did this happen? (The margins and new electoral votes are correct as well.)

[patzer]

This just looks like a normal prediction for a landslide Dem election year. Only slight surprises are Idaho and Louisiana being closer, and those can be explained by urban area expansion.

[CentristRepublican]

This just looks like a normal prediction for a landslide Dem election year. Only slight surprises are Idaho and Louisiana being closer, and those can be explained by urban area expansion.

I'm surprised that you aren't surprised at Ohio's results - if it is indeed a Democratic landslide year, and Democrats clinched Alaska and South Carolina (two states that voted to the right of Ohio in 2020), how come you aren't surprised that OH went Republican? And Iowa, for that matter?

[EastwoodS]

12 years of republicans and the Democrats went very centrist to get back in power.

[patzer]

This just looks like a normal prediction for a landslide Dem election year. Only slight surprises are Idaho and Louisiana being closer, and those can be explained by urban area expansion.

I'm surprised that you aren't surprised at Ohio's results - if it is indeed a Democratic landslide year, and Democrats clinched Alaska and South Carolina (two states that voted to the right of Ohio in 2020), how come you aren't surprised that OH went Republican? And Iowa, for that matter?

Iowa just requires rural areas to swing right more, with it becoming more similar to Nebraska (the two states were only ten points apart this year). Very doable. Ohio is slightly harder given increased urbanization there but still has room for the rural areas going right too.

AK and SC on the other hand can quite feasibly continue to go left.

[Adjective-Statement]

A Republican president- probably the first to win since Trump, maybe a moderate Senator Dan Crenshaw in 2032- screwed up and lost to a black Democrat from the South, who I'm gonna guess to be Cedric Richmond.

[Ferguson97]

Biden wins re-election against Trump in 2024. Kamala loses in 2028 to Josh Mandel. AOC loses to Mandel in 2032.

Democrats nominate a moderate Southern Democrat and win after 8 years of a crazy Republican.

[Pericles]

Kansas should have flipped by then, before SC.

[TodayJunior]

2036 is an FDR-style fourth term victory for the incumbent party. As moderates continue to leave the GOP, their base becomes more comparatively right wing and selects those types of candidates in the primary; so inevitably, the GOP continues to double down and maintains its regional party status. Voters continue to punish the GOP for their sins of the Trump era and other candidates alike.

Now, before you all say I’m crazy for predicting a 5th election win in a row for the Democrats, keep in mind there is precedent for this for the entire decades of the 1930s and 40s.

[CentristRepublican]

2036 is an FDR-style fourth term victory for the incumbent party. As moderates continue to leave the GOP, their base becomes more comparatively right wing and selects those types of candidates in the primary; so inevitably, the GOP continues to double down and maintains its regional party status. Voters continue to punish the GOP for their sins of the Trump era and other candidates alike.

Now, before you all say I’m crazy for predicting a 5th election win in a row for the Democrats, keep in mind there is precedent for this for the entire decades of the 1930s and 40s.

I don't think the GOP will necessarily lose the next four consecutive elections, but I do think that soon, with GA and AZ becoming safe blue states and TX on the way to joining the blue column, there may come a time, sometime in the next few decades, where the electoral math becomes almost permanently unworkable for the GOP, especially now that Trump has wrecked what remained of GOP suburban support in many areas, like Atlanta. So I can see TX eventually going blue, and at that point, it won't matter if FL, IA, OH, NC and even WI all go red - because the Democrats will still be winning, and by then and thereafter, GOP victories will be few and far between. Even in 2024, I don't see the GOP winning - I think there's an over 70% chance that Biden or Harris win, because I don't think GA and AZ are reentering the Republican column, and I don't think WI, NV or PA are going red (I'm not even mentioning MI, MN or NH because those states are almost certainly going blue come 2024).

[TodayJunior]

2036 is an FDR-style fourth term victory for the incumbent party. As moderates continue to leave the GOP, their base becomes more comparatively right wing and selects those types of candidates in the primary; so inevitably, the GOP continues to double down and maintains its regional party status. Voters continue to punish the GOP for their sins of the Trump era and other candidates alike.

Now, before you all say I’m crazy for predicting a 5th election win in a row for the Democrats, keep in mind there is precedent for this for the entire decades of the 1930s and 40s.

I don't think the GOP will necessarily lose the next four consecutive elections, but I do think that soon, with GA and AZ becoming safe blue states and TX on the way to joining the blue column, there may come a time, sometime in the next few decades, where the electoral math becomes almost permanently unworkable for the GOP, especially now that Trump has wrecked what remained of GOP suburban support in many areas, like Atlanta. So I can see TX eventually going blue, and at that point, it won't matter if FL, IA, OH, NC and even WI all go red - because the Democrats will still be winning, and by then and thereafter, GOP victories will be few and far between. Even in 2024, I don't see the GOP winning - I think there's an over 70% chance that Biden or Harris win, because I don't think GA and AZ are reentering the Republican column, and I don't think WI, NV or PA are going red (I'm not even mentioning MI, MN or NH because those states are almost certainly going blue come 2024).

In the current climate, they will only win either by voter suppression, or a divided Democratic Party, neither of which they’re likely to get away with or luck out with due to plunging suburban support. This is why I’ve said it will take a full generation to pass before they can win again thanks to Trump - sticking by 2040 at the earliest.

That also assumes the gop doesn’t collapse altogether and a new opposition party forms between now and then.

[CentristRepublican]

2036 is an FDR-style fourth term victory for the incumbent party. As moderates continue to leave the GOP, their base becomes more comparatively right wing and selects those types of candidates in the primary; so inevitably, the GOP continues to double down and maintains its regional party status. Voters continue to punish the GOP for their sins of the Trump era and other candidates alike.

Now, before you all say I’m crazy for predicting a 5th election win in a row for the Democrats, keep in mind there is precedent for this for the entire decades of the 1930s and 40s.

I don't think the GOP will necessarily lose the next four consecutive elections, but I do think that soon, with GA and AZ becoming safe blue states and TX on the way to joining the blue column, there may come a time, sometime in the next few decades, where the electoral math becomes almost permanently unworkable for the GOP, especially now that Trump has wrecked what remained of GOP suburban support in many areas, like Atlanta. So I can see TX eventually going blue, and at that point, it won't matter if FL, IA, OH, NC and even WI all go red - because the Democrats will still be winning, and by then and thereafter, GOP victories will be few and far between. Even in 2024, I don't see the GOP winning - I think there's an over 70% chance that Biden or Harris win, because I don't think GA and AZ are reentering the Republican column, and I don't think WI, NV or PA are going red (I'm not even mentioning MI, MN or NH because those states are almost certainly going blue come 2024).

In the current climate, they will only win either by voter suppression, or a divided Democratic Party, neither of which they’re likely to get away with or luck out with due to plunging suburban support. This is why I’ve said it will take a full generation to pass before they can win again thanks to Trump - sticking by 2040 at the earliest.

That also assumes the gop doesn’t collapse altogether and a new opposition party forms between now and then.

While it's not likely, I do think it's possible the GOP can win - although the national electorate now has a Democratic tilt or even lean. In 2024, DeSantis would need to pick up AZ and GA (unlikely but plausible, especially if there is a suburban backlash against Democrats in 2024 if Trump isn't the GOP nominee), as well as WI, in order to win. While all three states flipping red is unlikely, I don't think it's altogether impossible. AZ and GA are shifting to the left, but the fact is that NV, MI, WI and PA are Biden states that may still be on the GOP radar, now and perhaps in ten years, though they are currently in a bad position and demographic changes will only hurt them more in states like TX.