Rate Tester 2024

[David Hume]

It seems the consensus is Manchin is DOA in 2024. How about Tester?

He only won 3% in a D+8 year.

In 2020, Bullock, a popular incumbent governor, lost to Dianes, a first term backseat senator, by 10 points. He did outperform Biden by 6% though.

It's highly likely that R win MT by at least 15%, which is a quite a steep hill to climb. Susan Collins did overcome about 16%, but she is much closer to the center than Tester is. Collins voted against Barrett, and kept R from repealing ACA, which is something Tester never did. If he voted like Manchin, he may have a chance.

As a reference, he outperform by 17% in 2012. But polarization deepers significantly since then and ticket splitting is rare nowadays.

[Roll Roons]

This far out, I might as well give him the benefit of the doubt and call it a pure tossup. He'll have a very tough race for sure, but I wouldn't call him an outright underdog just yet. Same with Brown.

Though West Virginia is a different story. With or without Manchin, I'm writing off that seat for Democrats.

[David Hume]

This far out, I might as well give him the benefit of the doubt and call it a pure tossup. He'll have a very tough race for sure, but I wouldn't call him an outright underdog just yet. Same with Brown.

Though West Virginia is a different story. With or without Manchin, I'm writing off that seat for Democrats.

I think Brown may be toss up, as OH is significantly less R than MT, and Brown has special appeal to WWC, and is a much better candidate than Tester overall. Tester is in a much worse case than Brown.