Afghan government collapse.

[The Mikado]

I don't think there's any reason yet to take Saleh and lil' Massoud (what are we going to call the son of the Lion of Panjshir? The Cub of Panjshir?) all that seriously, let alone as a new Northern Alliance.

Let's see if they survive a few weeks first before we announce that the Northern Alliance has risen from its grave once again.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I don't think there's any reason yet to take Saleh and lil' Massoud (what are we going to call the son of the Lion of Panjshir? The Cub of Panjshir?) all that seriously, let alone as a new Northern Alliance.

Let's see if they survive a few weeks first before we announce that the Northern Alliance has risen from its grave once again.

Well, I guess we'll see which of these happen

1. They fold like everyone else
2. They are brutally crushed
3. They are sieged and blockaided
4. They are ignored
5. Something else

[Meclazine for Israel]

Anyone else find the Taliban media conference with commentary about the treatment of women super-cringeworthy.

They were out of their depth on the PR front.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think there's any reason yet to take Saleh and lil' Massoud (what are we going to call the son of the Lion of Panjshir? The Cub of Panjshir?) all that seriously, let alone as a new Northern Alliance.

Let's see if they survive a few weeks first before we announce that the Northern Alliance has risen from its grave once again.

Even if they do survive a few weeks, that doesn't mean they necessarily will be able to stage an effective insurgency in a sizably large section of the North, and if they can't, then they aren't really deserving of the label "Northern Alliance".
At this point in time the Taliban's decisions will be very important in shaping the course of what happens over the next few months and years. They seem to be handling things more competently than in 1996-2001, that much looks likely. (granted that's a low bar)

[NOVA Green]

As I had posited Yesterday, it appears that the US might be trying to use the leverage on the Afghani Gvt bank accounts to pressure the Taliban:

Code:

The Biden administration on Sunday froze Afghan government reserves held in U.S. bank accounts, blocking the Taliban from accessing billions of dollars held in U.S. institutions, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The decision was made by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and officials in the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the people said. The State Department was also involved in discussions over the weekend, with officials in the White House monitoring the developments. An administration official said in a statement, “Any Central Bank assets the Afghan government have in the United States will not be made available to the Taliban.” The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss government policy not yet made public....

Asked Tuesday what leverage the United States would have over the Taliban going forward, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that “there are obviously issues related to sanctions” but declined to elaborate. He also said the administration would first communicate directly with the Taliban...

The Afghanistan central bank held $9.4 billion in reserve assets as of April, according to the International Monetary Fund. That amounts to roughly one-third of the country’s annual economic output. The vast majority of those reserves are not currently held in Afghanistan, one of the people familiar with the matter said. Among those, billions of dollars are kept in the United States, although the precise amount is unclear.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/17/treasury-taliban-money-afghanistan/

One item which I neglected to mention when it comes to the ability of the International Community to cut off the supply of currency to the Taliban regime becomes a bit more problematic.

Although it is a topic which I am well familiar with from not only TV fictional series such as the British Channel 4 TV Series Traffik (Although obviously most of you might be more familiar with the 2000 Movie set in Mexico)....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traffik

but also books which I had read such as the first edition of Alfred McCoy's classic and meticulously researched work back shortly after it came out:

The Politics of Heroin: CIA Complicity in the Global Drug Trade

https://www.amazon.com/Politics-Heroin-Complicity-Global-Trade/dp/1556524838

The Taliban, as well as the former US back Government in Afghanistan have both long profited from the one real natural resource available, to what is generally a rural and underdeveloped nation with a lack of any significant manufacturing or production centers, but with one of the best and highest quality supplies of a raw commodity with significant demand in many parts of the world...

POPPY PLANTS

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/profits-poppy-afghanistans-illegal-drug-trade-boon-taliban-2021-08-16/

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/8/16/opium-afghanistans-illicit-drug-trade-that-helped-fuel-taliban

https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/afghanistan-taliban-drug-opium-production-b1904147.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/30/afghan-opium-production-explodes-billions-spent-us-report

Now, before we blame the Taliban exclusively for this, we must also remember that many members of the former Afghan Government, even at the Highest levels, also were raking in cash off the trade, while meanwhile provincial Governors would negotiate with Tribal leaders in areas where there was a mixture of both insurgents and government control to cut sections of the profits off of the poppy trade.

Will Poppy cultivation and associated production of Heroin increase or decrease now that the Old Regime is gone?

Either way, the Taliban likely won't want to risk the political backlash from impoverished rural agricultural workers by moving aggressively against it, considering that is considered a major reason as to why many rural ag labors swung against the Karzai Gvt after the first Taliban experiment in Gvt in Afghanistan.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anyone else find the Taliban media conference with commentary about the treatment of women super-cringeworthy.

They were out of their depth on the PR front.

To quote Commander Fred from The Handmaid's Tale:

"We only wanted to make the world better. Better never means better for everyone. It always means worse for some."

[Middle-aged Europe]

From the BBC liveblog:

Taliban flags 'replaced during protest'

The eastern city of Jalalabad has been the site of demonstrations today.

The city, in Nangarhar province, was taken over by the Taliban early on Sunday morning without fighting. Its capture meant the group secured key roads connecting Afghanistan with Pakistan.

But on Wednesday people in the area were filmed marching in support of the old Afghan flag, before gunshots were reportedly fired nearby to disperse crowds.

Video footage from the city appears to show protesters replacing a Taliban flag with that of Afghanistan as cheering crowds look on.

The Taliban's newly declared Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has so far been using a white flag with a black Shahada (statement of faith) on it. The black, red and green tricolour flag used by protesters today is seen to represent the ousted government.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid has said that discussions are taking place on the future national flag, with a decision to be made by the upcoming government.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883011207467009

The new regime will struggle to access money and assets.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883011207467009

The new regime will struggle to access money and assets.

Kind of hilarious that the Taliban expected to find an Afghan version of Fort Knox somewhere in Kabul.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Update from the BBC liveblog

Afghan cities see anti-Taliban protests

The BBC's Pashto Service reports that anti-Taliban protests are taking place in the cities of Jalalabad, Kunar and Khost, with demonstrators waving Afghan flags.

It is too early to say if it will spread nationally, but things are changing fast and the Taliban are tense, our journalists say.

In the Panjshir Valley there are unverified videos of a huge caravan of motorbikes with flags of the former Northern Alliance. They are being called the “resistance army” of former Vice-President Amrullah Saleh, who has proclaimed himself acting president.

Officials at the Afghan embassy in Tajikistan have already put up pictures of Mr Saleh, naming him as their president.

The Taliban have not yet commented on any of these developments.

[CumbrianLefty]

I hope that once the last plane is evacuated from Kabul that we de facto recognize the Panshjir enclave and ideally even enforce a 1990s Iraq type No Fly Zone around that area.

Well tbh I think that the international community will be waiting and seeing on that after recent events. If they can go on to credibly establish themselves - maybe capturing some more territory - there might be a case for it.

Worth remembering that the Northern Alliance only controlled about 10% of the country for most of the Taliban's first regime, but were still the widely recognised "government".

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems like Ghani is in a Gulf State:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1428001307856707590

[2952-0-0]

Code:

[/u]

https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883011207467009

The new regime will struggle to access money and assets.

Without access to these reserves, the Taliban will struggle to stabilize prices in the short term, and that will make it difficult to pay its own civil servants and the warlords who had lent their support. If they don't find a solution soon, they will be back to square one.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I have now received an e-mail from someone from Afghanistan who used to work for the U.S. Army as a security guard more than ten years ago. Documentation looks legit. I have referred him to the U.S. State Department in addition to the usual contact information for the German and Indian foreign ministries. Jesus Christ, what a mess.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Per BBC liveblog:

Afghanistan will not be a democracy under the Taliban, a senior member of the militant movement has told the Reuters news agency.

Waheedullah Hashimi, who has access to the group's decision-making, said: "There will be no democratic system at all because it does not have any base in our country.

"We will not discuss what type of political system should we apply in Afghanistan because it is clear. It is sharia law and that is it."

The movement's supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, would likely remain in overall charge of the country, Hashimi said.

The Taliban would also reach out to former pilots and soldiers from the Afghan armed forces to join its ranks, he added.

[Storr]

Per BBC liveblog:

Afghanistan will not be a democracy under the Taliban, a senior member of the militant movement has told the Reuters news agency.

Waheedullah Hashimi, who has access to the group's decision-making, said: "There will be no democratic system at all because it does not have any base in our country.

"We will not discuss what type of political system should we apply in Afghanistan because it is clear. It is sharia law and that is it."

The movement's supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, would likely remain in overall charge of the country, Hashimi said.

The Taliban would also reach out to former pilots and soldiers from the Afghan armed forces to join its ranks, he added.

"It is sharia law and that is it."

There's the good ol' Taliban we knew there was all along. I doubt they will keep up the "reasonable" and "modern" facade for too much longer. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There was an anti-Taliban protest in Jalalabad today. The Taliban responded by opening fire on the crowd: there are causalities. Many things can be observed from this.

[2952-0-0]

.

The Taliban would also reach out to former pilots and soldiers from the Afghan armed forces to join its ranks, he added.

And how can they be assured of their loyalty?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And how can they be assured of their loyalty?

Many (most?) of the pilots appear to have followed the money north into Uzbekistan anyway.

[The Free North]

Per BBC liveblog:

Afghanistan will not be a democracy under the Taliban, a senior member of the militant movement has told the Reuters news agency.

Waheedullah Hashimi, who has access to the group's decision-making, said: "There will be no democratic system at all because it does not have any base in our country.

"We will not discuss what type of political system should we apply in Afghanistan because it is clear. It is sharia law and that is it."

The movement's supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, would likely remain in overall charge of the country, Hashimi said.

The Taliban would also reach out to former pilots and soldiers from the Afghan armed forces to join its ranks, he added.

"It is sharia law and that is it."

There's the good ol' Taliban we knew there was all along. I doubt they will keep up the "reasonable" and "modern" facade for too much longer. 

It will only force civil war out faster. The US is gone finally, there is no foreign occupier to blame. The Taliban now have to do the most difficult thing for all opposition groups: rule a country.

People will not be happy and then we shall see the strength of the emirate. Perhaps it will endure, perhaps it will collapse. Whatever happens should be firmly in the hands of Afghans and not foreign powers.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Per BBC liveblog:

Afghanistan will not be a democracy under the Taliban, a senior member of the militant movement has told the Reuters news agency.

Waheedullah Hashimi, who has access to the group's decision-making, said: "There will be no democratic system at all because it does not have any base in our country.

"We will not discuss what type of political system should we apply in Afghanistan because it is clear. It is sharia law and that is it."

The movement's supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, would likely remain in overall charge of the country, Hashimi said.

The Taliban would also reach out to former pilots and soldiers from the Afghan armed forces to join its ranks, he added.

"It is sharia law and that is it."

There's the good ol' Taliban we knew there was all along. I doubt they will keep up the "reasonable" and "modern" facade for too much longer. 

It will only force civil war out faster. The US is gone finally, there is no foreign occupier to blame. The Taliban now have to do the most difficult thing for all opposition groups: rule a country.

People will not be happy and then we shall see the strength of the emirate. Perhaps it will endure, perhaps it will collapse. Whatever happens should be firmly in the hands of Afghans and not foreign powers.

Remember that Afghanistan under the US-backed government was an impoverished basket case propped up by US aid and contractors. The Taliban doesn't even have that, plus they don't have access to the previous government's reserves. Afghanistan's small professional class has mostly either fled the country or won't be willing to work with them. Waging an insurgency against a weak, unpopular government is a lot cheaper and easier than running a country.

[parochial boy]

It seems quite easy to pontificate about how Afghan civilians alone are responsible for their own destiny from the comfort of your own developed, stable western democracy

[Cassius]

It seems quite easy to pontificate about how Afghan civilians alone are responsible for their own destiny from the comfort of your own developed, stable western democracy

What’s the alternative? The West spent twenty years in Afghanistan trying to craft a developed, stable, westernised democracy. The West failed. The old government in Kabul may have been ‘nicer’ than the Taliban (although they weren’t that nice), but it was neither particularly competent nor particularly ‘legitimate’, the latter being evidenced by the low turnouts and widespread allegations of fraud in the elections that were held, alongside the speed at which the government collapsed once it was subjected to serious pressure by the Taliban.

Nonetheless, the twenty year occupation clearly wasn’t ‘for nothing’; life expectancy, literacy and infrastructure have all improved (albeit unevenly and from a pitiably low base) since 2001. This means that whilst there will undoubtedly be a regression in terms of political freedoms and opportunities afforded to women and minorities, a full scale rollback to the situation in 2001 is pretty unlikely (and would likely be strongly resisted). This is very normal in terms of the historical pattern of state development; it took the UK about 700 years to develop from an essentially feudal society to being a modern liberal democracy, and there were plenty of stops, starts, reverses and sideways steps along the way. The recrudescence of Taliban rule could well simply be a temporary reverse on the way to a more democratic and developed Afghanistan. Who can say? The only alternative however to the present situation is a renewed Western military occupation, with all the killings, maimings and bombings that that will inevitably entail. I doubt that will be acceptable to most people in the West, therefore, yes, the road forward lies through the people of Afghanistan and the choices that they make.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It seems quite easy to pontificate about how Afghan civilians alone are responsible for their own destiny from the comfort of your own developed, stable western democracy

You clearly didn't pay attention on January 6, or you would not insinuate that the USA is a stable democracy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Contrary to the previous announcements made by the Biden administration, the German government has said earlier today that a first round of negotiations with the Taliban to allow Afghan citizens formerly employed by Germany to the Kabul airport have produced no results.