Afghan government collapse.

[The Free North]

While it's clear US forces and the Biden Admin were ill prepared for this, it's too easy to shift the blame only on ourselves and our allies. This situation is equally - if not more - a catastrophic failure of a corrupt Afghan govt that never managed to win enough public support, an incompetent military leadership and outright quitting members of the Afghan forces, who technically are superior to the Taliban militarily.

Another major NATO mistake was clearly not to take roles of other regional players into account, Pakistan in particular. Taliban would have never gotten that strong without political, military and logistical support from outside. Unfortunately, we never went forcefully enough after their supporters. To extinguish a fire, you first need to cut off the oxygen.

And in turn it was our fault in turning the 2001 invasion into a war against the Taliban and trying to nation build in a nation without an effective government for a generation.

[jaymichaud]

Doing nothing to help secure the safety of your allies in Afghanistan and leaving them in desperation on the runway.. whew lad. That’s f**king painful to watch. Also Biden and Psaki are on vacation and no one is there to say anything about it… this is the worst FoPo disaster since Benghazi.

It’s a good thing for him that voters don’t really care about foreign policy (and that the GOP will probably do something unpopular) or else there’d be a red wave next year.

[Blair]

How much of a factor was Ghani in the situation turning south so quickly?

[Blair]

One of the more damning parts only just being revealed is how bad the intelligence was- you’d hope that if the US/UK/Germany etc had known how quickly it would unravel they’d have seriously scaled up the process to get people out of the country.

My hunch is that a larger amount of NATO Afghan interpreters from the US got out- while the wider population who’d worked with the Coalition in various forms (contactors, guards, NGOs etc) were not given the urgent priority as they thought they’d have longer.

After the recent issues with MI5 it makes me wonder what MI6 were doing…

[Storr]

AP NewsAlert: US Official: US Military Commander Met Face-to-face With Taliban to Seek Non-interference With Kabul Airport

I was wondering if the US would be able to agree to a solution like this with the Taliban which so far has tried to appear "reasonable". If such an agreement was reached hopefully that would be able to get some order at the airport. Evidently planes are having trouble landing with thousands of civilians on the runway. Leaving all of those people stranded at the airport, most of whom presumably helped the US war effort in the country, would be absolutely unacceptable. Though with how poorly this administration has handled the withdrawal of troops (or at best overestimated the strength of the Afghan government and military) I would not put it past them...

[Mr. Morden]

One of the more damning parts only just being revealed is how bad the intelligence was- you’d hope that if the US/UK/Germany etc had known how quickly it would unravel they’d have seriously scaled up the process to get people out of the country.

I've seen several stories in which it was reported that the intelligence wasn't bad.  It was just that political leadership didn't believe it.  E.g.:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/afghanistans-collapse-us-intelligence-wrong/story?id=79470553

But numerous U.S. officials tell ABC News that the opposite was true, insisting that key intelligence assessments had consistently informed policymakers that the Taliban could overwhelm the country and take the capital within weeks -- essentially repeating the 1975 fall of Saigon, when helicopters hastily evacuated diplomats from the U.S. embassy's rooftop as the North Vietnamese Army stormed into the South Vietnam capital.
.
.
.
"[U.S.] leaders were told by the military it would take no time at all for the Taliban to take everything," an anonymous U.S. intelligence official told ABC News. "No one listened."
.
.
.
"The intelligence community assessment has always been accurate; they just disregarded it," [a senior congressional] official told ABC News, speaking about the Biden administration.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1427330941589012487

[Middle-aged Europe]

At the moment it seems that two German military transport planes are in the region with rotating tasks. One of them is always circling over Kabul waiting for the runway to be cleared, while the other returns to a neighboring country for refueling.

[MATTROSE94]

This is a complete fiasco caused entirely by the Biden Administrations poor policies and inability to plan for the withdrawal. The evacuation of interprets and other local staff should have started much earlier and the embassy should have been massively scaled down .I am normally a fan of his administration's policies but he has completely botched the withdrawal process here. There was no need for chaos at the airport or for people to be clutching to the wings of taking off planes, he needs to take responsibility and publicaly outline a plan to evacuate everyone from the aiport. He should also address the nation tonight instead of waiting and take some actual responsibility, suspend the pointless paperwork and formalities.

There was no need for this to become a Saigon but his poor policies have caused it.

I wouldn’t fully blame Joe Biden for the downfall of Afghanistan and the rise of the Taliban. Really I think the blame should be placed on either Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan (for supporting the Taliban during the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan War) or Dwight Eisenhower, Winston Churchill, or David Ben-Gurion (for planning out and executing the 1953 Iranian coup, which is the direct contributor to al US interventions in the Middle East).

[Silent Hunter]

The Taliban didn't exist during the Soviet-Afghan War.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The way I see it Biden had two options, which were this or continue the fight. We already know how the latter ends, which is that it doesn't.

Biden was given two bad choices and I believe that in the long term the one he chose was the better of the two.

I agree that this could've been done much more competently. But we need to remember that hindsight is 20/20. If we had begun evacuating sooner I think it's possible much of the Afghan army would lose the little morale they had and we could have a similar situation anyway, just earlier.

[Crumpets]

I wonder what the "Trump is still in control of the military" conspiracy crowd's thoughts are on the past week.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The Taliban didn't exist during the Soviet-Afghan War.

True. However, after the war some members of the mujahideen ended up forming the original incarnation of the Taliban (and al-Qaeda).

[Storebought]

Macron says EU setting up initiative to thwart arrival of Afghan refugees

French president Emmanuel Macron said the European Union would be setting up an initiative to thwart the expected arrivals of refugees from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows that would endanger the migrants and risk encouraging trafficking of all kinds,” he said in a televised statement.

He said the response from France, Germany and other EU countries would be “robust, coordinated and united” and would target smuggling rings.

[Indy Texas]

Macron says EU setting up initiative to thwart arrival of Afghan refugees

French president Emmanuel Macron said the European Union would be setting up an initiative to thwart the expected arrivals of refugees from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows that would endanger the migrants and risk encouraging trafficking of all kinds,” he said in a televised statement.

He said the response from France, Germany and other EU countries would be “robust, coordinated and united” and would target smuggling rings.

If the EU doesn't want Afghan refugees there, then they're welcome to deploy their own forces to Afghanistan to repel the Taliban and prop up Ghani's government indefinitely.

[Silent Hunter]

The next step now is to make that what evil happens in Afghanistan stays in Afghanistan, basically.

[NOVA Green]

On a separate note there’s one province the Taliban haven’t taken: Panjshir. The birthplace, home, and resting place of the only truly decent Afghan warlord, Ahmad Shah Massoud. I’m sure the Taliban would love to desecrate Massoud’s tomb but that might be one bridge too far even for them.

Yes--- this is quite possibly where Amrullah Saleh is right now:

Twitter update from (3) hours ago appears to indicate this is the case, where some prior reports Yesterday were suggesting Tajikistan. Report indicates Massoud's son and other anti-Taliban commanders are also in Panjshir.



https://twitter.com/sudhirchaudhary/status/1427328094461849602

We have our first official anti-Taliban insurgency already. That was quick!

https://twitter.com/Hamidhaideri/status/1426897336312160262

Well, Amrullah Saleh appears to have the biography and a good geographical location in which to attempt to wage guerrilla warfare against the Taliban.

https://www.afghan-web.com/biographies/biography-of-amrullah-saleh/

https://pbsinternational.org/programs/the-spy-who-quit/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/world/asia/panjshir-afghanistan-taliban.html

https://time.com/5792389/taliban-peace-ballot-box/

[PSOL]

Well good, let them kill each other and usher in a new era of politics.

[parochial boy]

Macron says EU setting up initiative to thwart arrival of Afghan refugees

French president Emmanuel Macron said the European Union would be setting up an initiative to thwart the expected arrivals of refugees from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows that would endanger the migrants and risk encouraging trafficking of all kinds,” he said in a televised statement.

He said the response from France, Germany and other EU countries would be “robust, coordinated and united” and would target smuggling rings.

There is something just, intensely morally despicable about this being his reaction. That his priority in a humanitarian crisis is how to stop them from coming over here. It’s just sick. I mean, I have pretty liberal opinions on asylum from the outset, but we as the west collectively have a huge moral failing here and a huge degree of moral responsibility to people who are actively suffering. We should be offering safety to absolutely every Afghan who asks for it, and of course we have the resources between us.

Apart from that, I have nothing to say beyond a sense of horror at what is going on, and can only echo what the likes of Al have said that reading a lot of what people on here have had to say about this makes me want to scream.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Macron says EU setting up initiative to thwart arrival of Afghan refugees

French president Emmanuel Macron said the European Union would be setting up an initiative to thwart the expected arrivals of refugees from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows that would endanger the migrants and risk encouraging trafficking of all kinds,” he said in a televised statement.

He said the response from France, Germany and other EU countries would be “robust, coordinated and united” and would target smuggling rings.

There is something just, intensely morally despicable about this being his reaction. That his priority in a humanitarian crisis is how to stop them from coming over here. It’s just sick. I mean, I have pretty liberal opinions on asylum from the outset, but we as the west collectively have a huge moral failing here and a huge degree of moral responsibility to people who are actively suffering. We should be offering safety to absolutely every Afghan who asks for it, and of course we have the resources between us.

Apart from that, I have nothing to say beyond a sense of horror at what is going on, and can only echo what the likes of Al have said that reading a lot of what people on here have had to say about this makes me want to scream.

"2015 must not repeat itself" was probably the most commonly uttered phrase by CDU politicians in Germany today. Well, that and hanging the blame for the debacle around the neck of foreign minister Heiko Maas (SPD).

Meanwhile in Afghanistan... the first German military transport plane was finally able to land in Kabul. It deployed a unit of paratroopers to further secure the airport and is now on its way back to a base in Uzbekistan with the first batch of evacuees.

[Storr]

800 people on one plane!

For context, a Boeing 747 seats about 600 and has about a 15% larger wingspan (not a perfect analogy, but it gives you an idea).

https://twitter.com/MilMonWorld/status/1427025918652977156

I think this audio recording is someone in the Air Force relaying the info:
https://m.soundcloud.com/metal57/rch-871

Evidently it was only 640 people...which is still incredible.
If you want to get a sense of how desperate these people are, look at their faces even after getting on a flight out of the country.


https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2021/08/inside-reach-871-us-c-17-packed-640-people-trying-escape-taliban/184563/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9897843/US-Air-Force-crams-800-C-17-jet-Kabul-Taliban-takes-over.html

[NOVA Green]

Macron says EU setting up initiative to thwart arrival of Afghan refugees

French president Emmanuel Macron said the European Union would be setting up an initiative to thwart the expected arrivals of refugees from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows that would endanger the migrants and risk encouraging trafficking of all kinds,” he said in a televised statement.

He said the response from France, Germany and other EU countries would be “robust, coordinated and united” and would target smuggling rings.

There is something just, intensely morally despicable about this being his reaction. That his priority in a humanitarian crisis is how to stop them from coming over here. It’s just sick. I mean, I have pretty liberal opinions on asylum from the outset, but we as the west collectively have a huge moral failing here and a huge degree of moral responsibility to people who are actively suffering. We should be offering safety to absolutely every Afghan who asks for it, and of course we have the resources between us.

Apart from that, I have nothing to say beyond a sense of horror at what is going on, and can only echo what the likes of Al have said that reading a lot of what people on here have had to say about this makes me want to scream.

"2015 must not repeat itself" was probably the most commonly uttered phrase by CDU politicians in Germany today. Well, that and hanging the blame for the debacle around the neck of foreign minister Heiko Maas (SPD).

Meanwhile in Afghanistan... the first German military transport plane was finally able to land in Kabul. It deployed a unit of paratroopers to further secure the airport and is now on its way back to a base in Uzbekistan with the first batch of evacuees.

Good to hear.

How's this all playing in Germany with elections coming up within the next Month?

I know Germany backed down on it's planned deportation of a number of existing Afghan refugees in response to the recently unfolding humanitarian crisis, after having been one of the most generous countries in Europe during the Afghan Civil War of the early '90s, but obviously the political climate has changed considerably since then.

[Astatine]

Meanwhile in Tenderland:

https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/1427306681650843650?s=19

[Middle-aged Europe]

Macron says EU setting up initiative to thwart arrival of Afghan refugees

French president Emmanuel Macron said the European Union would be setting up an initiative to thwart the expected arrivals of refugees from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

“We must anticipate and protect ourselves against significant irregular migratory flows that would endanger the migrants and risk encouraging trafficking of all kinds,” he said in a televised statement.

He said the response from France, Germany and other EU countries would be “robust, coordinated and united” and would target smuggling rings.

There is something just, intensely morally despicable about this being his reaction. That his priority in a humanitarian crisis is how to stop them from coming over here. It’s just sick. I mean, I have pretty liberal opinions on asylum from the outset, but we as the west collectively have a huge moral failing here and a huge degree of moral responsibility to people who are actively suffering. We should be offering safety to absolutely every Afghan who asks for it, and of course we have the resources between us.

Apart from that, I have nothing to say beyond a sense of horror at what is going on, and can only echo what the likes of Al have said that reading a lot of what people on here have had to say about this makes me want to scream.

"2015 must not repeat itself" was probably the most commonly uttered phrase by CDU politicians in Germany today. Well, that and hanging the blame for the debacle around the neck of foreign minister Heiko Maas (SPD).

Meanwhile in Afghanistan... the first German military transport plane was finally able to land in Kabul. It deployed a unit of paratroopers to further secure the airport and is now on its way back to a base in Uzbekistan with the first batch of evacuees.

Good to hear.

How's this all playing in Germany with elections coming up within the next Month?

I know Germany backed down on it's planned deportation of a number of existing Afghan refugees in response to the recently unfolding humanitarian crisis, after having been one of the most generous countries in Europe during the Afghan Civil War of the early '90s, but obviously the political climate has changed considerably since then.

Greens, FDP, and Left are criticizing the CDU/SPD government for not having seen the success of the Taliban insurgence earlier, despite the fact that there apparently had been warnings from the German Embassy in Kabul to that effect for a couple of weeks now.

Greens and Left in particular have also blasted the government for having stalled the evacuation of locally recruited Afghan staff in past months... something these two parties had advocated for for quite a while now, while CDU and SPD had so far worked on the assumption that a Taliban takeover would be months away at worst.

Like I said before, the CDU is blaming the SPD because the social democrats are running the Foreign Ministry. And the CDU is also afraid of the prospect of another refugee crisis, something that might lead to them losing votes to the AfD.

Speaking of the AfD... I suspect they're at least secretly quite happy about the whole situation for the same reasons the CDU is worried. The voters that are most worried about chaos, uncertainty, and loss of control usually go for the AfD.

Electorally, I'd say both the Greens and the AfD have profited from the refugee issue in the past though, while it is a somewhat delicate topic for CDU and SPD. This is because the latter parties' bases are somewhat divided on refugees and whatever they're doing they stand to lose something.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Tenderland:

https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/1427306681650843650?s=19

Disgusting, but somewhat understandable considering that the FF is just around the corner in the event that the Coalition Gvt with the Greens collapse.

When I lived in Germany on a couple different occasions in the Mid 1990s, many on the Left would loudly proclaim that the EU experiment would create a Fortress Europe (Festung Europa) where the borders would effectively be shut down to almost all foreign immigration and asylum seekers from outside the EU.

Unfortunately here we are about 25 Jahre später, and almost all European Governments have effectively fallen in step as the Far Right continued to gain vote share election after election.