Afghan government collapse.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:51:02 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Afghan government collapse.
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 24 25 26 27 28 [29] 30
Poll
Question: Will the Afghani people be worse or better off with the US leaving ?
#1
Better
 
#2
Worse
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 127

Author Topic: Afghan government collapse.  (Read 28263 times)
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,601
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #700 on: September 12, 2021, 08:37:41 AM »
« edited: September 12, 2021, 08:53:00 AM by CumbrianLeftie »

Sadly, the Taliban, horrifying as they are, appear to be doing their best to piss away what goodwill they have for ending the war. Crap like this is why there’ll be yet another round of civil war in the future.

Apple, tree, etc etc.

Not sure which exact point you’re making.

That despite their PR offensive that has seemingly (and predictably) taken in some gullible people, the Taliban haven't actually changed much in 25 years?
Logged
compucomp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,572


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #701 on: September 12, 2021, 10:54:03 AM »

Sadly, the Taliban, horrifying as they are, appear to be doing their best to piss away what goodwill they have for ending the war. Crap like this is why there’ll be yet another round of civil war in the future.

Apple, tree, etc etc.

Not sure which exact point you’re making.

That despite their PR offensive that has seemingly (and predictably) taken in some gullible people, the Taliban haven't actually changed much in 25 years?

They may not have changed much, but if they fulfill their promise to not harbor international terrorists, then that's enough for them to stay in power indefinitely. If they didn't harbor Osama Bin Laden they wouldn't have been thrown out in the first place.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,306
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #702 on: September 12, 2021, 12:04:29 PM »

I still want to remove Pakistan’s “major non-NATO ally” status though.

I strongly suspect, that if that were to happen, Pakistan would move far more into the Chinese camp. That doesn't make it a bad idea, but it's something that has to be borne in mind.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #703 on: September 12, 2021, 01:15:47 PM »

I still want to remove Pakistan’s “major non-NATO ally” status though.

I strongly suspect, that if that were to happen, Pakistan would move far more into the Chinese camp. That doesn't make it a bad idea, but it's something that has to be borne in mind.

Which is why what the US does with Pakistan ultimately depends on where proposals for a US-Indian alliance go, IMO. Most strategists would be happy to "trade" one for the other on the developing Cold War II map, especially now that the US is out of Afghanistan, but despite jumping pretty far down the crazy Hindu nationalist rabbit hole and souring even more on China, India is pretty stubborn about non-alignment. When the Quad becomes a more formal thing, the US dumps Pakistan fast.
Logged
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,562


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #704 on: September 12, 2021, 03:19:31 PM »

Sadly, the Taliban, horrifying as they are, appear to be doing their best to piss away what goodwill they have for ending the war. Crap like this is why there’ll be yet another round of civil war in the future.

Apple, tree, etc etc.

Not sure which exact point you’re making.

That despite their PR offensive that has seemingly (and predictably) taken in some gullible people, the Taliban haven't actually changed much in 25 years?

Oh missed your point entirely Cheesy well I agree with you then Smiley
Logged
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,562


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #705 on: September 14, 2021, 06:30:42 AM »

Well, on the topic of the Taliban in Panjshir:

Afghanistan crisis: Taliban kill civilians in resistance stronghold

Quote
The BBC has found that at least 20 civilians have been killed in Afghanistan's Panjshir Valley, which has seen fighting between the Taliban and opposition forces. Communications have been cut in the valley, making reporting difficult, but the BBC has evidence of Taliban killings despite promises of restraint.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,601
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #706 on: September 14, 2021, 06:57:20 AM »

Sadly, the Taliban, horrifying as they are, appear to be doing their best to piss away what goodwill they have for ending the war. Crap like this is why there’ll be yet another round of civil war in the future.

Apple, tree, etc etc.

Not sure which exact point you’re making.

That despite their PR offensive that has seemingly (and predictably) taken in some gullible people, the Taliban haven't actually changed much in 25 years?

They may not have changed much, but if they fulfill their promise to not harbor international terrorists, then that's enough for them to stay in power indefinitely. If they didn't harbor Osama Bin Laden they wouldn't have been thrown out in the first place.


I wonder if this is actually true.

They were obviously very unpopular when the international community moved against them in 2001. Even if they hadn't harboured OBL, that might well have told eventually. And since then we have had two decades when many Afghans had experienced a rather different way of living, even if their actual government was almost universally despised.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,306
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #707 on: September 14, 2021, 11:02:52 AM »

The Afghans born after 2001 make up close to half the population too.
Logged
Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,366


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #708 on: September 14, 2021, 08:14:35 PM »

Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #709 on: September 15, 2021, 02:41:09 AM »



Although I know you just embedded a tweet from someone else, the "movement of dead people" caught my eye.

Without dropping any particular names, there have been multiple figures on both sides of the Afghan Civil War who rematerialize out of nowhere!

I am extremely skeptical these days regarding any reports of deaths of well known figures within Afghanistan, especially because of all the "Black Ops" and "angling" of all of the other vultures in the neighborhood.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #710 on: September 15, 2021, 04:06:40 AM »

Taliban purge incoming?


Quote
Afghanistan: Taliban leaders in bust-up at presidential palace, sources say

A major row broke out between leaders of the Taliban just days after they set up a new government in Afghanistan, senior Taliban officials told the BBC.

Supporters of two rival factions reportedly brawled at the presidential palace in the capital Kabul.

The argument appeared to centre on who did the most to secure victory over the US, and how power was divided up in the new cabinet.

The Taliban have officially denied the reports.

The group seized control of Afghanistan last month, and have since declared the country an "Islamic Emirate". Their new interim cabinet is entirely male and made up of senior Taliban figures, some of whom are notorious for attacks on US forces over the past two decades.

The dispute came to light after a Taliban co-founder, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, disappeared from view for several days.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58560923
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #711 on: September 15, 2021, 05:24:59 PM »

Taliban purge incoming?


Quote
Afghanistan: Taliban leaders in bust-up at presidential palace, sources say

A major row broke out between leaders of the Taliban just days after they set up a new government in Afghanistan, senior Taliban officials told the BBC.

Supporters of two rival factions reportedly brawled at the presidential palace in the capital Kabul.

The argument appeared to centre on who did the most to secure victory over the US, and how power was divided up in the new cabinet.

The Taliban have officially denied the reports.

The group seized control of Afghanistan last month, and have since declared the country an "Islamic Emirate". Their new interim cabinet is entirely male and made up of senior Taliban figures, some of whom are notorious for attacks on US forces over the past two decades.

The dispute came to light after a Taliban co-founder, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, disappeared from view for several days.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58560923

Well, we do know that members of the TB "Leadership" who supported a greater degree of engagement with Iran were effectively side-lined in the TB Cabinet postings and other Senior Leadership positions.

TB leaders, including Haqqani, are obviously concerned about how these rumors will impact their supporters and followers, and are attempting to do domestic PR damage control on this story.

Baradar also had an interview with RTE, I believe earlier today, but don't believe the full video has yet been posted, and I haven't seen a translation yet of the clips which have been released.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #712 on: September 15, 2021, 06:05:47 PM »

There's something about this story - leaking to journalists to try to undermine your internal opponents - that reinforces this, awful, awful feeling that I've been having for a while, namely that Taliban II: Electric Boogaloo is likely to be an extremely dark parody of modern political life...
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #713 on: September 15, 2021, 06:42:03 PM »

There's something about this story - leaking to journalists to try to undermine your internal opponents - that reinforces this, awful, awful feeling that I've been having for a while, namely that Taliban II: Electric Boogaloo is likely to be an extremely dark parody of modern political life...

However this go around of "TB 2.0" practically every Talib has a Smartphone, Social Media is widespread (Although my understanding is that Facebook is more popular in AFGH than Twitter), multiple domestic TV stations, as well as much greater reach of Satellite TV, etc....

So yeah--- still does feel a bit different from Taliban 1.0 when trying to understand or parse TB statements and actions always felt like it was a bit in the shadows.

I'm sure some academics are already updating their future book releases to cover how Media played (Including Social Media) a significant role both in the lead up to the fall of the Afghani regime, as well as in the subsequent aftermath.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #714 on: September 15, 2021, 06:46:11 PM »

Interesting article which I just read for the first time today on a "secret" Taliban drone unit which helped them win the War against the Afghani GVT post Trump-Taliban Peace Deal.

Won't bother quoting, but it does help answer some of my questions about how the TB were so effective in identifying Panjshiri military locations without external Satellite Intel data, despite (As I believe I previously posted a couple weeks back they also had at least some local HumINT and supporters within the Valley as well).

Worth a read and shouldn't take more than 5-10 minutes of your life.

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-drone-unit-that-helped-the-taliban-win-the-war/
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #715 on: September 16, 2021, 07:26:15 PM »

A new story from the AP on the "rifts" between Taliban leadership:

Quote

Friction among Taliban pragmatists, hard-liners intensifies

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Friction between pragmatists and ideologues in the Taliban leadership has intensified since the group formed a hard-line Cabinet last week that is more in line with their harsh rule in the 1990s than their recent promises of inclusiveness, said two Afghans familiar with the power struggle.

The wrangling has taken place behind the scenes, but rumors quickly began circulating about a recent violent confrontation between the two camps at the presidential palace, including claims that the leader of the pragmatic faction, Abdul Ghani Baradar, was killed.

The rumors reached such intensity that an audio recording and handwritten statement, both purportedly by Baradar himself, denied that he had been killed. Then on Wednesday, Baradar appeared in an interview with the country’s national TV.

....

The two Afghans familiar with the power struggle also spoke on condition of anonymity to protect the confidentiality of those who shared their discontent over the Cabinet lineup. They said one Cabinet minister toyed with refusing his post, angered by the all-Taliban government that shunned the country’s ethnic and religious minorities.

...

Analysts say the friction may not amount to a serious threat to the Taliban — for now.

“We’ve seen over the years that despite disputes, the Taliban largely remains a cohesive institution and that major decisions don’t get serious pushback after the fact,” said Michael Kugelman, Asia program deputy director at the Washington-based Wilson Center.

....







https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-afghanistan-kabul-taliban-abdul-ghani-baradar-56455c9c2e145c3e5bf57d697d968834
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #716 on: September 16, 2021, 11:08:08 PM »

Interesting...

Foreign Policy Magazine report from today....


https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/16/us-un-taliban-travel-ban-talks/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,601
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #717 on: September 17, 2021, 09:22:26 AM »
« Edited: September 17, 2021, 11:49:19 AM by CumbrianLeftie »

Thing is, the "hardline" approach used in 1996-2001 is maybe the only way of bringing the country fully under their control in the short term - but it has a longer term price. As was once famously said by Boris Yeltsin "you can build a throne of bayonets, but you cannot sit on it for long".
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,306
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #718 on: September 17, 2021, 11:36:54 AM »

Think is, the "hardline" approach used in 1996-2001 is maybe the only way of bringing the country fully under their control in the short term - but it has a longer term price. As was once famously said by Boris Yeltsin "you can build a throne of bayonets, but you cannot sit on it for long".

The Iron Throne in the books was pretty easy to cut yourself on as well.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #719 on: September 17, 2021, 08:51:26 PM »

Jeff's good and has tons of connections and is pretty careful about validating sources before posting, but we'll see how this pans out....

I believe you gotta click on the Tweet and then it will open up the thread for the draft TB constitution....


Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #720 on: September 18, 2021, 06:00:00 AM »

Taliban are being Taliban


Quote
Afghanistan: Girls excluded as Afghan secondary schools reopen

The Taliban have excluded girls from Afghan secondary schools, after they ordered only boys and male teachers to return to the classroom.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58607816
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #721 on: September 18, 2021, 05:53:01 PM »
« Edited: September 18, 2021, 06:36:28 PM by NOVA Green »

Meanwhile for something completely different.... here is the Taliban Navy conducting military exercises.



Also, Taliban Junior Officer Training in Provincial Town:



Logged
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,562


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #722 on: September 19, 2021, 12:59:58 PM »

Err, about Afghani women…
Quote
Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers have set up a ministry for the “propagation of virtue and the prevention of vice” in the building that once housed the Women’s Affairs Ministry, escorting out World Bank staffers on Saturday as part of the forced move.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #723 on: September 19, 2021, 08:47:57 PM »

ISKP is now claiming credit for multiple assaults in Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan where it appears there might have been a significant number of Taliban casualties.

Logged
LBJer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,607
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #724 on: September 23, 2021, 10:39:44 PM »

I voted "Worse," but that doesn't change the fact that the U.S. should have left after the killing of Osama bin Laden at the latest.  It's not our responsibility to stay there forever in order to make life as pleasant as possible for the Afghan people. 
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 24 25 26 27 28 [29] 30  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.047 seconds with 13 queries.