Afghan government collapse.

[Annatar]

On a historical note I believe this is the first time since the 1970's that the whole country is under one government, there are no competing factions left fighting, who could have thought 20 years after 9/11 that this is how it would end, a complete and absolute Taliban victory, not even a civil war or different factions fighting each other but one government in power, first time country has been unified in decades.

[Silent Hunter]

We'll see how long that lasts though.

[Cassius]

Well that was a typically useful intervention by Bernard-Henri Levy.

[CumbrianLefty]

We'll see how long that lasts though.

Well indeed, the Taliban now have to *govern*.

Good luck with that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sad news, though it may be possible that there will be further guerrilla activity in the more remote regions of Panjshir.

Note that there's no necessary contradiction between 'we are in control of the valley' and 'the struggle continues': from the Taliban's present perspective what matters is occupying the towns along the valley floor and being able to say that, having done so, that they 'control' every district. From the perspective of the valley's defenders it's a little different. It's easy to overlook, but the place is huge and the main valley is only a small proportion of the land area.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On a historical note I believe this is the first time since the 1970's that the whole country is under one government, there are no competing factions left fighting, who could have thought 20 years after 9/11 that this is how it would end, a complete and absolute Taliban victory, not even a civil war or different factions fighting each other but one government in power, first time country has been unified in decades.

Wrong, as usual. For quite a while after the 2001 war, the Taliban controlled (at best) scraps of hillside here and the odd valley there and stayed alive largely due to their ability to regroup safely on the other side of the Durand Line.

[Silent Hunter]

And in this cases, the resistance have Tajikistan.

[NOVA Green]

So Ryan O' Farrell has done some older geo-location work from Baghlan Province, and it appears as though the anti-Taliban militias only had control for about 2-3 days after kicking out the initial Taliban presence.

If you click on each of the four photos there are dates and notes from various social media posts.

It appears as though once again pro-Taliban sources were much more accurate than pro-NRF accounts.

Also, including another Tweet from Ryan with maps noting the locations of Taliban advances on the Southern Front.

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1434774198417870849?s=20

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1434730195701874690?s=20

[Silent Hunter]

That will probably be "it" for the rest of the year now for fighting. Winter is now going to be the real problem for the people of Afghanistan.

[President Johnson]

Lmao

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1434778895321030656

[All Along The Watchtower]

On a historical note I believe this is the first time since the 1970's that the whole country is under one government, there are no competing factions left fighting, who could have thought 20 years after 9/11 that this is how it would end, a complete and absolute Taliban victory, not even a civil war or different factions fighting each other but one government in power, first time country has been unified in decades.

Wrong, as usual. For quite a while after the 2001 war, the Taliban controlled (at best) scraps of hillside here and the odd valley there and stayed alive largely due to their ability to regroup safely on the other side of the Durand Line.

Really? Can't imagine why they were able to do that....

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, pretty solid read from the WP out today on Taliban & Pakistani relations in the post de-facto Taliban control of Afghanistan as of recently.

Obviously there is a lot more to this article than the small excerpts quoted (And I mainly chose to focus on a few items regarding the TTP [Pakistani Taliban] ), so well worth a read and paying a few bucks a month for a subscription to enjoy the wide array of quality content they offer:

After jubilation, Pakistan faces dilemma as Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan inspires religious militants

In the two weeks since Kabul fell to the Taliban on Aug. 15, Pakistan’s typically fractious political voices joined in something rare: unison.

Imran Khan, Pakistan’s prime minister, applauded Afghans for tearing free of the “shackles of slavery.” His political opponents, including leaders of Islamist parties, congratulated the Taliban for its “historic victory” over American imperialism. A half-dozen retired Pakistani army generals publicly celebrated. So did extremist groups that are sworn enemies of Pakistan’s generals and government.

But beneath the widespread jubilation, Pakistan is beginning to reckon with the destabilizing effects washing across the Afghan border. The Taliban’s dramatic victory not only has galvanized terrorist groups waging a bloody insurgency inside Pakistan, but it has also buoyed hard-line religious parties that seek to reshape Pakistan in a more fundamentalist Islamist image.

....

Pakistani officials say their most immediate concern is the resurgence of a coalition of militant groups known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, or the Pakistani Taliban, which is allied with the Afghan Taliban and has conducted nearly 1,800 attacks on Pakistani state and civilian targets in the past decade. After hailing the Taliban’s “blessed victory” in Afghanistan, the TTP claimed another attack last week in which gunmen crossed from Afghanistan and killed two soldiers in northern Pakistan’s tribal region.

A U.N. Security Council report in July estimated the TTP had 6,000 trained fighters on the Afghan side of the border. A June report said the Taliban and TTP have maintained their relationship. As it swept across Afghanistan last month, the Taliban released hundred of militants, including senior TTP leaders, from prisons.

....

A former high-ranking TTP commander, who spoke by messaging app on the condition of anonymity, said Pakistan has recently asked the Taliban to force TTP fighters to surrender their arms in exchange for amnesty.

The Taliban responded that it would not hand over TTP members but would pressure them to hold peace talks with the Pakistani government, the former TTP leader said, adding that the Taliban’s leverage was limited. “If the Afghan Taliban tried to force the TTP, then some of its commanders can join [Islamic State-Khorasan],” he said, referring to a rival militant group that claimed a bombing outside the Kabul airport that killed more than 170 people.

....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/05/pakistan-taliban-afghanistan/

[Utah Neolib]

The Afghanistan government would’ve collapsed had we pulled out any other time. 10 years in the past, or 10 years in the future, the outcome remains the same. We had to end the endless war, but still conduct drone strikes on ISIS-K and such in the Middle East.

[Silent Hunter]

The Afghanistan government would’ve collapsed had we pulled out any other time. 10 years in the past, or 10 years in the future, the outcome remains the same. We had to end the endless war, but still conduct drone strikes on ISIS-K and such in the Middle East.

The US really needs to review its counter-insurgency strategies, because "Vietnamisation" has failed two times out of the four it has been attempted.

[NOVA Green]

Good article today from the Wall Street Journal on the legacy of failed US funded infrastructure projects in Afghanistan.

Again well worth a subscription since their news pages are usually pretty solid, unlike the crap they post on the Editorial and Op-Ed pages so so often.

Don't want to risk overquoting, but it is a really long article and breaks down some of the standout examples such as the G222 planes ($549 Million), Kabul Luxury Hotels & Apts across the street from the US embassy ($85 Million), vehicle scanners, Cashmere goat farm and laboratory, Afghan National Police compound, Khost City electric power system, etc...)

U.S. Left Afghanistan Littered With Decaying Factories, Schools, Offices

Watchdog finds government wasted at least $2.4 billion on assets that were unused, destroyed or poorly maintained

The Afghan countryside is littered with abandoned and decaying power plants, prisons, schools, factories, office buildings and military bases, according to a watchdog agency, the legacy of the U.S.’s 20-year effort to fund the establishment of a modern Afghan state that could provide security and basic services for its citizens.

A range of U.S. government agencies poured an estimated $145 billion into construction and infrastructure projects, equipment for the Afghan security forces, humanitarian aid, counternarcotics programs and other spending, according to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, or Sigar.

Across the country, local Afghan partners often lacked the expertise and resources to maintain the buildings and equipment after they were handed over. In many cases, the U.S. government built things the Afghans didn’t want or need, according to Sigar.

Some facilities and equipment were damaged in fighting. In other cases, whether through malfeasance or incompetence, American, Afghan and international contractors never delivered what they were paid for, Sigar’s reports show.

.....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-left-afghanistan-littered-with-decaying-factories-schools-offices-11630933200

[Flyersfan232]

The Afghanistan government would’ve collapsed had we pulled out any other time. 10 years in the past, or 10 years in the future, the outcome remains the same. We had to end the endless war, but still conduct drone strikes on ISIS-K and such in the Middle East.

should have allowed the restoration of the monarchy

[NOVA Green]

Sad news, though it may be possible that there will be further guerrilla activity in the more remote regions of Panjshir.

Note that there's no necessary contradiction between 'we are in control of the valley' and 'the struggle continues': from the Taliban's present perspective what matters is occupying the towns along the valley floor and being able to say that, having done so, that they 'control' every district. From the perspective of the valley's defenders it's a little different. It's easy to overlook, but the place is huge and the main valley is only a small proportion of the land area.

I have hesitated to post here about the prospects of rural guerrilla warfare within Afghanistan for multiple reasons.

1.) I am deeply saddened that Massoud Jr. appears to have taken the advice of Saleh, and triggering what was an unnecessary war in Panjshir.

2.) The Taliban and NRF intermediaries met about two weeks ago in Charikar, Afghanistan.

From various reports, both the Tribal Elders of Panjshir and the Taliban representatives were virtually on broad agreement on most items, including the continued territorial autonomy of Panjshir (Just like under Karzai / Ghani), retention of any ANA weapons which had migrated to the province, allegedly participation in a broader "Afghan Gvt", etc...

Could be wrong, but one of the main "non-negotiables" of the Taliban involved the status of Saleh, who they considered to be a "war criminal" because of the various dirty deeds committed by the elite Afghan CIA backed formations.

3.) It appears that Saleh led the Panjshiri resistance into a war against the Taliban, by first triggering "Militia Assaults" in Baghlan Province, and then tried to spin this to the International Community to obtain arms and political support, leveraging his "gravitas", international connections, social media prowess, etc...

4.) This strategy was a colossal failure.

It directly led to a massive clash, where a bunch of seasoned Jamiat-e Islami military commanders lost their lives during the (successful) Taliban offensive to take the Valley floors and population centers within the past few days.

That being said....

Sure it is not inconceivable that NRF factions and localized militia might be able to conduct sporadic assaults and guerrilla war activities against the TB, but it is quite a bit different than before (Even JI opposition to Taliban formations in '94-'01).

The logistical pipeline of weapons and ammo to whatever remains of the resistance forces is going to become much more difficult, now that the TB had a casus belli in order to "legitimately" move against the rebel formations, international communities who did not back up the Panjshir Rebels, plus likely looking weak when it comes to any potential authenticity as being able to "protect the Ethnic Tajiks against the Taliban".

Not disputing that there might be a few small bands of guerrillas roaming around the Hindu-Kush Mountains waging sporadic guerrilla warfare against TB formations, but really would have been much better to bide time, and allow for the people of Afghanistan to take a look at what's going down vs starting yet another war, where so many families have lost both a son fighting for the Taliban and another son fighting for the ANA....

It's over and regardless of how Saleh & Co tried to spin it, I'm having a difficult time envisioning a successful rural based guerrilla war in Afghanistan at this time against the Taliban.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/06/politics/four-us-citizens-afghanistan-departure/index.html

The United States facilitated the departure of four American citizens from Afghanistan via an overland route to a third country, a senior State Department official said Monday.

"Our Embassy greeted the Americans as they crossed the border into the third country," the official told CNN.

The official confirmed that these are the first four Americans that "we've facilitated in this manner" since the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. They are a woman and her three children from Amarillo, Texas, according to Rep. Markwayne Mullin, an Oklahoma Republican, who has been assisting an American non profit-funded group of former special forces, military, contractors and others who are working to get Americans and Special Immigrant Visa holders out of Afghanistan.

[NOVA Green]

So my my good buddy Ryan O'Farrell has just recently updated some geo-location data from Panjshir.

In case there are any doubts, it appears that the Taliban control the entire Panjshir Valley from Khenj in the NE heading SW to Bazarak.

Sure no idea what guerrilla formations might be out in the Mountains and Hills, but seriously if TB convoys feel safe driving from the NE portion of the Highway towards the Capitol of the Province, tells you something...

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1435058706908160002?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Here another Tweet from my Irish-American friend, regarding the "flanking maneuver", which allowed the Taliban to Militarily conquer the Southern Entrance to the Panjshir Valley...

The fourth photo with GPS Geographical Images and Notes, perhaps is the best to click on, when attempting to review from a "military strategic angle".

Again, no hay on the ground from my perspective, but def looks like the TB fighters did a really good job overall, and not just on a tactical level.

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1435003485918011393?s=20

And another...

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1434977255059566600

[Annatar]

On a historical note I believe this is the first time since the 1970's that the whole country is under one government, there are no competing factions left fighting, who could have thought 20 years after 9/11 that this is how it would end, a complete and absolute Taliban victory, not even a civil war or different factions fighting each other but one government in power, first time country has been unified in decades.

Wrong, as usual. For quite a while after the 2001 war, the Taliban controlled (at best) scraps of hillside here and the odd valley there and stayed alive largely due to their ability to regroup safely on the other side of the Durand Line.

I disagree the central government in Kabul did not exercise full control over the whole nation in the early 2000's to the extent the Taliban do today.   

[NOVA Green]

Now regardless of the various atrocities, human rights abuses, extremely backward perspectives regarding the role of women in the public sphere of the Taliban Regime (1994-2001), we are still talking about a country where 50%+ of the population are Women.

The New Yorker Magazine has an interesting article on the subject about how Women in Rural Afghanistan started to turn against the "Occupiers" and support the Taliban vs the Afghan GVMT.

The Other Afghan Women

[size=12pt]In the countryside, the endless killing of civilians turned women against the occupiers who claimed to be helping them.[/size]

Late one afternoon this past August, Shakira heard banging on her front gate. In the Sangin Valley, which is in Helmand Province, in southern Afghanistan, women must not be seen by men who aren’t related to them, and so her nineteen-year-old son, Ahmed, went to the gate. Outside were two men in bandoliers and black turbans, carrying rifles. They were members of the Taliban, who were waging an offensive to wrest the countryside back from the Afghan National Army. One of the men warned, “If you don’t leave immediately, everyone is going to die.”

Shakira, who is in her early forties, corralled her family: her husband, an opium merchant, who was fast asleep, having succumbed to the temptations of his product, and her eight children, including her oldest, twenty-year-old Nilofar—as old as the war itself—whom Shakira called her “deputy,” because she helped care for the younger ones. The family crossed an old footbridge spanning a canal, then snaked their way through reeds and irregular plots of beans and onions, past dark and vacant houses. Their neighbors had been warned, too, and, except for wandering chickens and orphaned cattle, the village was empty.

...

The pounding of artillery filled the air, announcing the start of a Taliban assault on an Afghan Army outpost. Shakira balanced her youngest child, a two-year-old daughter, on her hip as the sky flashed and thundered. By nightfall, they had come upon the valley’s central market. The corrugated-iron storefronts had largely been destroyed during the war. Shakira found a one-room shop with an intact roof, and her family settled in for the night. For the children, she produced a set of cloth dolls—one of a number of distractions that she’d cultivated during the years of fleeing battle. As she held the figures in the light of a match, the earth shook.

....

This summer, I travelled to rural Afghanistan to meet women who were already living under the Taliban, to listen to what they thought about this looming dilemma. More than seventy per cent of Afghans do not live in cities, and in the past decade the insurgent group had swallowed large swaths of the countryside. Unlike in relatively liberal Kabul, visiting women in these hinterlands is not easy: even without Taliban rule, women traditionally do not speak to unrelated men. Public and private worlds are sharply divided, and when a woman leaves her home she maintains a cocoon of seclusion through the burqa, which predates the Taliban by centuries. Girls essentially disappear into their homes at puberty, emerging only as grandmothers, if ever. It was through grandmothers—finding each by referral, and speaking to many without seeing their faces—that I was able to meet dozens of women, of all ages. Many were living in desert tents or hollowed-out storefronts, like Shakira; when the Taliban came across her family hiding at the market, the fighters advised them and others not to return home until someone could sweep for mines. I first encountered her in a safe house in Helmand. “I’ve never met a foreigner before,” she said shyly. “Well, a foreigner without a gun.”

....

One day, an announcer on the radio said that there had been an attack in America. Suddenly, there was talk that soldiers from the richest country on earth were coming to overthrow the Taliban. For the first time in years, Shakira’s heart stirred with hope.

One night in 2003, Shakira was jolted awake by the voices of strange men. She rushed to cover herself. When she ran to the living room, she saw, with panic, the muzzles of rifles being pointed at her. The men were larger than she’d ever seen, and they were in uniform. These are the Americans, she realized, in awe. Some Afghans were with them, scrawny men with Kalashnikovs and checkered scarves. A man with an enormous beard was barking orders: Amir Dado.

...

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/09/13/the-other-afghan-women

[CumbrianLefty]

On a historical note I believe this is the first time since the 1970's that the whole country is under one government, there are no competing factions left fighting, who could have thought 20 years after 9/11 that this is how it would end, a complete and absolute Taliban victory, not even a civil war or different factions fighting each other but one government in power, first time country has been unified in decades.

Wrong, as usual. For quite a while after the 2001 war, the Taliban controlled (at best) scraps of hillside here and the odd valley there and stayed alive largely due to their ability to regroup safely on the other side of the Durand Line.

I disagree the central government in Kabul did not exercise full control over the whole nation in the early 2000's to the extent the Taliban do today.   

I think its fair to say they did for a relatively brief while.

[NOVA Green]

Really good read for anybody actually interested on Atlas / Talk Elections:

Meanwhile all of the American Atlas blowhards still continue to regurgitate MSM, "Opinion Pieces" from US Republican outlets, etc, and generally are just full of s**t 90% of the time.

Hopefully a few of them might move over from the USGD "Sewers" and actually spend some hours reading stuff rather than random sound bites and political posturing...

https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/ncna1278163?__twitter_impression=true

[NOVA Green]

So... here's an interesting back-story regarding the Younger Brother of Massoud Sr.  which I was not aware of previously, but as Karzai's VP absconded with tons of cash from Afghanistan.

This is from a seasoned reporter for The Times (UK), who seems like he knows his s**t.

https://twitter.com/RichardJSpencer/status/1434759060482572292?s=20

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Zia_Massoud