Afghan government collapse.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile... on the International Front, it appears that Russia and Tajikistan don't see eye-to-eye when it comes to the conflict between the Taliban and the Panjshiri Resistance:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1433488175352197126?s=20

https://twitter.com/MahmoudSaikal/status/1433365592321392640?s=20

Also, under the radar is the relationship between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban (TPP), where contrary to the cliche and hack stories from decades past regarding the role of the ISI and Pakistani Intelligence when it comes to their motivations in Afghanistan, for quite some time they have been a bit more circumspect, especially when it comes to Pashtoon (TPP) forces committing terrorist attacks on Pakistani soil.

There were at least 2-3 major clashes just within the past week in North and South Waziristan (Pakistani side of the border Northwest Frontier Province) where Pakistani Security forces engaged in combat with Pakistani Taliban fighters....

Obviously this is still an ongoing story, but the last thing the Pakistani GVT wants is an explosion of domestic terrorist activity on Pakistani soil following the Taliban "Victory" in Afghanistan.

[Jackson Lee]

Panjshir Resistance has been defeated:

Taliban sources say their forces take Panjshir, in full control of Afghanistan

Sept 3 (Reuters) - Taliban forces have taken full control of Afghanistan including the Panjshir valley where opposition forces had been holding out, three Taliban sources said on Friday as heavy celebratory gunfire was heard in the Afghan capital Kabul.

"By the grace of Allah Almighty, we are in control of the entire Afghanistan. The troublemakers have been defeated and Panjshir is now under our command," said one Taliban commander.

It was not immediately possible to confirm the reports. Former Vice President Amrullah Saleh, one of the leaders of the opposition forces told Tolo News television station that reports he had fled the country were lies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-sources-say-their-forces-take-panjshir-full-control-afghanistan-2021-09-03/

[Jackson Lee]

Panjshir Resistance has been defeated:

Taliban sources say their forces take Panjshir, in full control of Afghanistan

Sept 3 (Reuters) - Taliban forces have taken full control of Afghanistan including the Panjshir valley where opposition forces had been holding out, three Taliban sources said on Friday as heavy celebratory gunfire was heard in the Afghan capital Kabul.

"By the grace of Allah Almighty, we are in control of the entire Afghanistan. The troublemakers have been defeated and Panjshir is now under our command," said one Taliban commander.

It was not immediately possible to confirm the reports. Former Vice President Amrullah Saleh, one of the leaders of the opposition forces told Tolo News television station that reports he had fled the country were lies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-sources-say-their-forces-take-panjshir-full-control-afghanistan-2021-09-03/

And look who’s back too:

Reports said that the Taliban joined hands with al-Qaida to attack the so-far impenetrable province of Afghanistan. "Al-Qaida militant units are joining the Taliban in attacking Panjshir," Al Arabiya TV channel reported.

Amrullah Saleh too corroborated al-Qaida's presence and said Panjshir is under the invasion of the Taliban and Pakistanis and al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups.

The Taliban have blocked humanitarian services including medicine in the valley, the former vice president earlier tweeted. He also alleged that innocent people of Panjshir were forced by the Taliban to walk on minefields in the mountain.

[Jackson Lee]

TASS news agency:

Taliban’s Akhundzada to become Afghanistan’s Supreme Leader, Hasan to become PM — source

MOSCOW, September 3

Taliban movement head Hibatullah Akhundzada will most likely become the Supreme Leader of Afghanistan, similar to Iran’s model of governance, a source in the Hazbi Islami political party told TASS Friday.

"According to my information obtained from people in the Taliban, the movement decided to appoint mullah Mohammad Hasan as the Prime Minister, and mullah [Abdul Ghani] Baradar as his deputy. Akhnundzada will remain the country’s Supreme Leader," he said.

According to the source, Mohammad Hasan is a "well known Taliban functionary."

However, Baradar himself may also be appointed as the Prime Minister, the Hazbi Islami representative said, citing Pakistani sources.

"Mullah Yaqoob [son of Taliban founder mullah Omar - TASS] will be the Minister of Defense, Sirajuddin Haqqani [Deputy Leader of the Taliban] will be the Minister of the Interior, Amir Khan Muttaqi will become the Foreign Minister, while Gul Agha Ishakzai [head of Finance Commission] will be appointed as the Minister of Finance. There is a decision on appointment of these candidates. The Taliban plan to announce this within 24-48 hours," the source said.

Meanwhile, Afghan media reported earlier that Akhnundzada will become the Prime Minister, while Baradar will become a Foreign Minister, and Khalifah Haqqani (son of Taliban leader Jalaluddin Haqqani) will become the Minister of the Interior.

Following this decision to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban embarked on a large-scale operation to seize control over the republic. On August 15, the President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani resigned and left the country, and the Taliban entered Kabul without fighting. Those who disagreed with the Taliban reign organized a resistance, led by Akhmad Massoud. Former Vice President Amrullah Saleh called to support Massoud, and declared himself an acting president.

https://tass.com/world/1333923

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibatullah_Akhundzada

[Jackson Lee]

Apparently, Supreme Leader Akhundzada has arrived in Kabul to celebratory gun shots ...

[WMS]

Ah, nothing but horrifying misogyny and repression in the future for Afghanistan! A Solid Win™️ for the anti-American and anti-Western Imperialism forces of the world! Made possible by support from those noted supporters of revolutionary freedom Pakistan, Russia, Iran, and China!

[Silent Hunter]

Problem is that both sides have an incentive to lie and control of a bunch of mountains is ultimately illusory if you're not actually standing on them.

[NOVA Green]

Panjshir Resistance has been defeated:

Taliban sources say their forces take Panjshir, in full control of Afghanistan

Sept 3 (Reuters) - Taliban forces have taken full control of Afghanistan including the Panjshir valley where opposition forces had been holding out, three Taliban sources said on Friday as heavy celebratory gunfire was heard in the Afghan capital Kabul.

"By the grace of Allah Almighty, we are in control of the entire Afghanistan. The troublemakers have been defeated and Panjshir is now under our command," said one Taliban commander.

It was not immediately possible to confirm the reports. Former Vice President Amrullah Saleh, one of the leaders of the opposition forces told Tolo News television station that reports he had fled the country were lies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-sources-say-their-forces-take-panjshir-full-control-afghanistan-2021-09-03/

Like so much other information coming out from Panjshir from both TB and NRF sources, this appears to be patently false, at least as of today.

https://twitter.com/MSharif1990/status/1433848862591041542?s=20

It DOES appear that TB forces made some gains Yesterday, with pro-NRF Social Media outlets reporting parts of Darband District under TB military control, but that for the most part NRF lines have held. We'll have to see more information trickle out, or get reviewed by geo-location gurus before accepting many of the wilder claims getting bandied around by both sides.

Claims of Anti TB Militia members surrendering has not been verified yet.


NRF claims of having taken the town of Charikar Yesterday in Parwan Province, appear to have been debunked, with the footage they used actually being from somewhere outside of Golbahar.

Also recent, but undated video shared by TB sources have just been geo-located as somewhere South of Golbahar.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1433721438624796672?s=20

https://twitter.com/hengenahm/status/1433893566808526853?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Afghanistan, we have this quite frankly bizarre tweet from Omar Samad, who was a former top level consultant and Afghan Ambassador, considered a close confidant of Abdullah Abdullah who ran against Ghani...

Needless to say, this is interesting to say the least, but apparently the Anjuman region is not really "deep within Panjshir", so again I sense some spinning going on once again all around....


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_Samad

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_Abdullah

https://twitter.com/OmSamad/status/1433925459121741826?s=20

[thumb21]

A map of districts in Panjshir I came across, might be a useful reference for some of this information:

[NOVA Green]

So Benjamin has some updated geo-location data identifying known Taliban locations based upon videos they have uploaded to social media.

It appears the Taliban did manage to push their way through the NRF line today through the Southern front a bit North of Golbahar along the Saricha Road.

Also verified footage of the Taliban having taking the district HQ in Shatal District Panjshir from this Morning.

https://twitter.com/hengenahm/status/1434233817909301254?s=20

Still there's quite of bit of distance yet between their forces and the capital of Panjshir in Bazarak.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile we have PRO-NRF outlets who are sharing this video of current (Saturday) ongoing Night fighting from Paryan Province in the NE part of Panjshir Province:

(This is a slightly longer version of a shorter clip also doing the rounds on pro-NRF social media circles.)

Much more difficult for geo-location people to review Night Footage, although I would imagine that some people are running these through computer apps to ensure it isn't something filmed in place XYZ from years back....

The NE front of the Taliban-NRF "war" in Panjshir hasn't received as much recent attention, although both TB and NRF forces have claimed dominance in the District over the past few days.

Noteworthy to mention in case there are significant developments for either side (Or more info about WTF is actually going on there).

https://twitter.com/PanjshirProvin1/status/1434248632165965828?s=20

Some of you might have seen some footage and posts from pro-NRF outlets regarding an alleged NRF action which blew up a boulder on a main road trapping TB fighters who were "retreating".

https://twitter.com/TajudenSoroush/status/1434142421001117704?s=20

Geolocation appears to confirm TB convoy retreating... but not quite sure what village this is in???

Looks to be somewhere North of Golbahar, but South of previous locations from new geolocation data a few clicks North.... quite possibly old footage from a day or two back?

https://twitter.com/hengenahm/status/1434153318566305796?s=20

Still again noteworthy without date stamps makes it difficult to follow what is going on in the ground...

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, I would derelict in my duties if I didn't at least briefly ref the top Pakistani ISI showing up in Kabul earlier today...

Omar Samad does have a legit history when it comes to diplomatic relations, and likely still knows people and has a good sense of some of the geo-political angles....

So people don't necessarily need to flip about ISI (Pakistani Intelligence) showing up to "chat" with the TB. Likely has a lot more to do with Pakistani concerns regarding TTP formations conducting terrorist activities on Pakistani soil, status of refugees, etc...

https://twitter.com/OmSamad/status/1434298634003230721?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Interesting article from Foreign Affairs about how the corruption in Afghanistan under the previous GVT, was made in America.

It's a non-paywall article, at least if you haven't exceed whatever monthly limits might exist, but FA is a publication which I used to regularly read in College and Grad School, some years back.

Still, will just quote a few passages, just in case I might otherwise be "overquoting"....

Something to put in the proverbial Tobacco Pipe and puff on, since it will likely be quite some time until we see a comprehensive review of all of the US eff-ups in Afghanistan going back 20 years, and as I have consistently stated, perhaps even 40 years back.

....

ON THE TAKE
Corruption in U.S.-occupied Afghanistan wasn’t just a matter of constant street-level shakedowns. It was a system. No cops or customs agents got to put all their illicit gains in their own pockets. Some of that money flowed upward, in trickles that joined to form a mighty river of cash. Two surveys conducted in 2010 estimated the total amount paid in bribes each year in Afghanistan at between $2 billion and $5 billion—an amount equal to at least 13 percent of the country’s GDP. In return for the kickbacks, officials at the top sent protection back down the line.

The networks that ran Afghanistan were flexible and dynamic, beset by internal rivalries as well as alliances. They spanned what Westerners often misperceive as an impermeable wall between the public sector and the supposedly private businesspeople and heads of local “nonprofits” who corralled most of the international assistance that found its way to Afghanistan. These networks often operated like diversified family businesses: the nephew of a provincial governor would get a major reconstruction contract, the son of the governor’s brother-in-law would get a plum job as an interpreter for U.S. officials, and the governor’s cousin would drive opium shipments to the Iranian border. All three were ultimately part of the same enterprise.

Westerners often scratched their heads at the persistent lack of capacity in Afghan governing institutions. But the sophisticated networks controlling those institutions never intended to govern. Their objective was self-enrichment. And at that task, they proved spectacularly successful.

The errors that enabled this kind of government to take hold date back to the very beginning of the U.S.-led intervention, when American forces armed rag-tag proxy militias to serve as ersatz ground troops in the fight against the Taliban. The militias received spiffy new battle fatigues and automatic rifles but no training or oversight. In recent weeks, pictures of Taliban fighters wielding batons against desperate crowds at the airport in Kabul have horrified the world. But in the summer of 2002, similar scenes took place, with little subsequent outrage, when U.S.-backed militias set up checkpoints around Kandahar and smacked around ordinary Afghans who refused to pay bribes. Truck drivers, families on their way to weddings, and even kids on bikes got a taste of those batons.

In time, U.S. military intelligence officers figured out how to map the social networks of small-time Taliban commanders. But they never explored the links between local officials and the heads of construction or logistics companies that got to bid on U.S.-funded contracts. No one was comparing the actual quality of raw materials used with what was marked down in the budget. We Americans had no idea who we were dealing with.

Ordinary Afghans, on the other hand, could see who was getting rich. They noticed whose villages received the most lavish development projects. And Western civilian and military officials bolstered the standing of corrupt Afghan officials by partnering with them ostentatiously and unconditionally. They stood by their sides at ribbon cuttings and consulted them on military tactics. Those Afghan officials could then credibly threaten to call down a U.S. raid or an airstrike on anyone who got out of line.

....

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-03/afghanistans-corruption-was-made-in-america

[NOVA Green]

TB forces made significant gains today and are reportedly close to the capital city of Panjshir.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1434578625219776513?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Starting to look like the "Panjshir War" is really close to being wrapped up, judging by the updated list of NRF confirmed casualties of their Senior commanders:


https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1434593089558093825?s=20

[NOVA Green]

So just to get an idea of how quickly Taliban forces appear to have advanced, I believe the first reported clashes on the SW front were around 8/30/21 (Time zones might reflect US or Afghani Time since sometimes confirmed reports didn't trickle in until after initial wild claims being made by both TB and NRF allied entities.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=453801.msg8229006#msg8229006

So Jabal Saraj ended up following short order by the battle around Golbahar on 8/31/21 over the Southern approach to the Panjshir Valley.

The front appeared to be relatively static for several days, with most of the heavy combat occurring around Mountain areas on the Southern and Western side of the Valley, following by a combination of a decisive punch through on 9/3/21 on the main Southern entrance, combined with encirclement activities coming down from the Mountains to the West of the Shatal District HQ (Originally from Jabal Saraj), from the SE Mountain positions basically completely clearing the road between Golbahar and Shatal District HQ.

It does not appear that NRF attempts to blow up bridges and Mountain boulders to block roads was successful at all in slowing the TB advance along the Saricha Road / Panjshir River.

It does make me wonder if some of the reports we were seeing a few days back of surrendering NRF fighters were accurate, considering what appears to have been relatively limited resistance the Taliban experienced as they headed East from the Shatal area through to Tawakh, and now apparently earlier today even Rokhah and possibly even into areas of Bazarak itself.

Here's a rough visual I sketched up with the dates and location circled approximating to when the Taliban had secured control....

(The Shatal District have actually been on 9/3/21 instead of 9/4/21, depending upon if it was the evening before or early the following morning.)

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58455959

A US lawmaker has accused the Taliban of stopping Afghans and Americans from leaving Afghanistan via Mazar-i-Sharif International Airport.

Republican House member Michael McCaul said on Sunday that planes had been trying to leave the airport "for the last couple of days".

An NGO confirmed to the BBC that it had people waiting to board one of the flights.

The Taliban has denied the claims, labelling them as propaganda.

[NOVA Green]

Now reports are trickling in that Saleh Mohammad Registani was also killed in clashes with the Taliban earlier today.

Kind of starting to look like a "whose who top ten list" of seasoned Panjshiri military guerrilla war are KIA today in fighting.

Massoud Jr's status still uncertain, but a few posts within the past 20 minutes or so back sounds like he's in a "safe place" or has "left to the Mountains".

Meanwhile sounds like Saleh has probably split via Helicopter, with some bizarre backstory involving his house allegedly being assaulted by choppers?

https://twitter.com/AfghanUpdates/status/1434611456067182594?s=20

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As an historical point it isn't actually true to say, as people often do, that Soviet troops never took the valley. They did, and repeatedly. The valley isn't easy to get into, but there's no defensible landform on earth that can stop a larger and better armed force from breaking through eventually. The problem they found was that it was an absolute nightmare to hold, due to all the small valleys and hollows leading off the main valley and up into the mountains; ideal territory for a guerrilla campaign, particularly in an area where supplying a long-term occupation force is logistically and financially extremely difficult. This isn't meant as a prediction, incidentally, just as background. Whether that sort of thing is feasible depends to an extent on motivation: in the 1980s the defenders were led by a man who turned out to be a tactical genius and were fighting a holy war against opponents who had, after a certain point, openly genocidal intentions against them.

[NOVA Green]

So Ben just updated his geo-location map of proven Taliban positions a bit less than an hour ago of known Taliban geo-locations from their social media posts, which were effective as of Yesterday, so naturally would not reflect today's apparently quite dramatic developments.

He uses a European data-stamp (Day-Month-Yr) for anyone who wants to match against other reports.

As we can see the only real data is coming from the Southern Front (Or whatever might be currently left of it), but in general TB outlets have been much more transparent and better with providing us with actual real information on this sorts of stuff than Pro-NRF outlets.

By that I mean they don't appear to mind posting their military positions to SM in a timely fashion, making it a bit easier to work backwards 24 hours.... 

Also, there is the Taliban "War Correspondent Dude", who has been constantly uploading videos of himself to Twitter etc.

Didn't add him as someone I am following, so don't have it at my fingertips at the moment, but I was going back through when I got up today, and the info he was posting / contributing to, looked remarkably like more confirmed reports that came later from actual developments on the Southern Front. (Don't speak Dari or Pashto, not sure which language he was speaking in, but the twitter site could be translated into English when it came to updates).

https://twitter.com/hengenahm/status/1434233817909301254?s=20

Side Note: I do like the Zoom Earth app he uses, and although I didn't post it previously apparently all sorts of formerly "limited data" or "blended" areas have for some reason been recently updated, making it a bit easier for geo-mapping.

Another note, the TB seem to have had much better Intel regarding location of enemy forces than the NRF, so hopefully that was HumINT and not Satellite data shared by any external parties and Governments in exchange for their own immediate foreign policy interests.

[NOVA Green]

Just in case anybody on Atlas is gullible to believe whatever random items show up on social media, reports of any Pakistan Military involvement in support and coordination with the Taliban / NRF War, such as "Pakistani Jets bombing NRF positions", and various other similar claims, SSG Coordinating activities, Pakistani "Spy Chief" shows up in Kabul to coordinate activities against the NRF, we have to remember that the vast majority of the Social Media sites posting such stories in the past have been completely debunked, fact-checked, etc....

Saleh was not a great Intel Chief under Ghani, and we have seen all sorts of crazy "Baghdad Bob" style statements from most pro-NRF sources, and although various Taliban Social Media sites have made all sorts of factually inaccurate statements as well, at least in many cases they are declaring "intentions" prior to "actions" which were later confirmed.

In general, I do strongly believe that Saleh did a grave disservice to the people of Panjshir, when he convinced the Senior NRF Leadership team and Massoud Jr. , that he could handle the international relations so long as Massoud & Company could stall for time, knowing that clashes could potentially be brought under control before they got out of hand.

Meanwhile we have some random Twitter Dude with a name Col Rahman Rahmani, who is allegedly a former Afghan Air Force Pilot.

Now his name is interesting, since it also happens to also be that of a who is the current de-jure Speaker of Afghanistan's House of the People (Wolesi Jirga, the House of Representatives), holding the office since June 2019, until his flight from Afghanistan in 2021. He has been a member of the Wolesi Jirga since 2010.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir_Rahman_Rahmani

Now---- not going to link to the guys Twitter feeds, but he's one of those people (who assuming it's not the actual guy himself), but is posting random stuff about Pakistani Drone Attacks, Panjshiri rebel commanders still being alive.

what I AM saying is that we can, will, and should expect to see all sorts of disinformation appear, especially now that the Taliban have de facto control over Afghanistan, with complex webs of alliances and non-alliances throughout the region.

Afghanistan and Kabul will likely be for the next 10-20 years to come one of those crazy melting-pot scenes like Berlin & Vienna shortly after WW II.

Spy-chiefs and Intel-chiefs from all neighboring States (As well as further beyond), will mix and mingle from Herat in the West, Mazar-e-Sharif in the North, Jalalabad in the East, Kandahar in the far South-east, not to mention the capitol itself.

What's going on in Panjshir / Taliban has virtually nothing to do with Kashmir and Indian-Pakistani relations, which would be more of your ISKP support for their "sister" / "brother" affiliate in India.

Pakistan is just one of many neighbors to Afghanistan, and they and many of their merchant class, would be more than happy to exchange a regional peace and stability, versus a continuation of the Panjshir War", since the Port of Karachi > Kabul allows a much easier transportation route than all of the alternatives (Including the Western route from Iran).

Anyways---- just needed to take a brief brake from doing my OCD "searching for updates" thing, to put it out there in case anyone is really believing that the "Pakistani Special Forces" attacked Saleh's House, or so much other of the crap floating around on SM.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58455959

A US lawmaker has accused the Taliban of stopping Afghans and Americans from leaving Afghanistan via Mazar-i-Sharif International Airport.

Republican House member Michael McCaul said on Sunday that planes had been trying to leave the airport "for the last couple of days".

An NGO confirmed to the BBC that it had people waiting to board one of the flights.

The Taliban has denied the claims, labelling them as propaganda.

Although I can't reliably speak to the story in question (there are other articles out there on that), it does appear that commercial flights out of Mazar-e-Sharif were shut for a period on 9/3/21 based upon satellite data:

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1434604577526067202?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Looks to be official now....

TB Flag flying over the Panjshir Capitol...

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1434733544593575940?s=20

[H. Ross Peron]

Sad news, though it may be possible that there will be further guerrilla activity in the more remote regions of Panjshir.