Ontario Election 2022
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Author Topic: Ontario Election 2022  (Read 36651 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #800 on: June 06, 2022, 01:29:20 PM »

Don Valley West is the wealthiest.

Average Income

Don Valley West  $109,887
University-Rosedale  $98,820
St. Paul's  $92,952
Oakville  $81,854
Eglinton-Lawrence  $81,773

Average HH Income

Don Valley West  $216,158
Oakville  $177,283
University-Rosedale  $170,832
Eglinton-Lawrence  $162,674
St. Paul's  $155,470

Top Decile

Don Valley West  33.2%
Oakville  29.7%
Eglinton-Lawrence  27.2%
St. Paul's  24.9%
University-Rosedale  24.9%

The current DVW riding is kind of weird. The northern part of the riding is very wealthy and suburban, Leaside is more "old money" (but not quite Rosedale level), the Yonge Street corridor attracts a more yuppie crowd, and Thorncliffe Park is one of the lowest-income areas in the City. I guess in a way, this coalition of brahmin liberals, yuppies and low-income immigrants (in a non-"Ford Nation" part of the City in the latter case, as a similar demographic can vote more Tory in more outer parts of Toronto), is a very OLP-esque mix and not very conducive to voting for Ford. But I would think at the very least, it would make more sense to district Thorncliffe and Flemingdon together, as those neighbourhoods are very similar.

PCs had a strong second so be interested in seeing poll by poll breakdown.  I am guessing PCs won the more wealthy parts while OLP dominated rest.  Amongst rentals probably got lots of strategic voters too.  As for wealthy voting Liberals now, I think that is true with top 10% but wouldn't be surprised if top 1% still votes Conservative.  Former is largely spared from tax hikes unlike in past when NDP used to run on raising taxes on everyone in top 10% (prior to 2000 provincial taxes were done as a percentage of federal, not independent like now) whereas top 1% have not been.  However top 1% too small in any riding to matter a lot but may in some polls.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #801 on: June 06, 2022, 02:32:15 PM »

Don Valley West is the wealthiest.

Average Income

Don Valley West  $109,887
University-Rosedale  $98,820
St. Paul's  $92,952
Oakville  $81,854
Eglinton-Lawrence  $81,773

Average HH Income

Don Valley West  $216,158
Oakville  $177,283
University-Rosedale  $170,832
Eglinton-Lawrence  $162,674
St. Paul's  $155,470

Top Decile

Don Valley West  33.2%
Oakville  29.7%
Eglinton-Lawrence  27.2%
St. Paul's  24.9%
University-Rosedale  24.9%

The current DVW riding is kind of weird. The northern part of the riding is very wealthy and suburban, Leaside is more "old money" (but not quite Rosedale level), the Yonge Street corridor attracts a more yuppie crowd, and Thorncliffe Park is one of the lowest-income areas in the City. I guess in a way, this coalition of brahmin liberals, yuppies and low-income immigrants (in a non-"Ford Nation" part of the City in the latter case, as a similar demographic can vote more Tory in more outer parts of Toronto), is a very OLP-esque mix and not very conducive to voting for Ford. But I would think at the very least, it would make more sense to district Thorncliffe and Flemingdon together, as those neighbourhoods are very similar.

It just shows how wealthy the riding is, given that even with very low-income Thorncliffe it still tops the list on every measure. 
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Krago
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« Reply #802 on: June 06, 2022, 03:54:55 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2022, 04:34:58 PM by Krago »

But I would think at the very least, it would make more sense to district Thorncliffe and Flemingdon together, as those neighbourhoods are very similar.

Your wish is my command.

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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #803 on: June 06, 2022, 05:28:23 PM »

Some shaded maps - as usual, for both the winners' margins & the winners' vote shares:






For comparison/contrast, here are ones for 2018:






And for 2014 (notional results):



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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #804 on: June 06, 2022, 05:29:31 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2022, 06:02:24 PM by DistingFlyer »

As the NDP & Liberals got almost identical vote shares provincewide, here's a map showing which party did better in each riding (no shading this time):



NDP ahead of the Liberals in 66 ridings, Liberals ahead of the NDP in 58.
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Krago
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« Reply #805 on: June 06, 2022, 05:46:36 PM »

My count is NDP 66, Lib 58.

If you toss in the Greens, the count would be NDP 65, Lib 57, Green 2.
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adma
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« Reply #806 on: June 06, 2022, 05:51:23 PM »

The current DVW riding is kind of weird. The northern part of the riding is very wealthy and suburban, Leaside is more "old money" (but not quite Rosedale level), the Yonge Street corridor attracts a more yuppie crowd, and Thorncliffe Park is one of the lowest-income areas in the City. I guess in a way, this coalition of brahmin liberals, yuppies and low-income immigrants (in a non-"Ford Nation" part of the City in the latter case, as a similar demographic can vote more Tory in more outer parts of Toronto), is a very OLP-esque mix and not very conducive to voting for Ford. But I would think at the very least, it would make more sense to district Thorncliffe and Flemingdon together, as those neighbourhoods are very similar.

Leaside is WASPy upper-middle to the max, like a more garden-suburbby version of North Toronto (or like the Beaches without the Beaches, or Bloor West without the Eastern Europeans--and it's where Stephen Harper comes from).  The "Liberal" Yonge corridor is actually split in two by primarily-upscale-Tory Lawrence Park, and the southern part (where Kathleen Wynne resides IIRC) touches upon a lot of the Yonge/Eg apartment forest, more apartment corridor along Eglinton to Bayview, and other parts which are really more spillover from the most naturally "Liberal" parts of St Pauls (i.e. neither as blue-default as Forest Hill nor as orange-default as what lies W of Bathurst)--as you say, yuppie to the max, and in a way virally affecting Leaside as well.  And indeed, Thorncliffe was the place where the Tory vote increased most noticeably (but not winningly) from '14 to '18 (and it's worth noting that the versions of the riding from '97 federally to '14 provincially did indeed include both Thorncliffe and Flemingdon).
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #807 on: June 06, 2022, 06:02:50 PM »

My count is NDP 66, Lib 58.

If you toss in the Greens, the count would be NDP 65, Lib 57, Green 2.

Right you are - not sure how I mucked that up. Have fixed the original post.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #808 on: June 07, 2022, 09:10:26 AM »

As the NDP & Liberals got almost identical vote shares provincewide, here's a map showing which party did better in each riding (no shading this time):



NDP ahead of the Liberals in 66 ridings, Liberals ahead of the NDP in 58.

So basically Eastern Francophones+Toronto suburbs and exurbs = Liberal

Some shaded maps - as usual, for both the winners' margins & the winners' vote shares:






For comparison/contrast, here are ones for 2018:






And for 2014 (notional results):





I haven't seen the 2014 notional results mapped before. Surprised to see the Liberals "won" Barrie-SOR and Flamborough-Glanbrook. Two ridings Trudeau hasn't been able to crack.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #809 on: June 07, 2022, 03:09:45 PM »

As the NDP & Liberals got almost identical vote shares provincewide, here's a map showing which party did better in each riding (no shading this time):



NDP ahead of the Liberals in 66 ridings, Liberals ahead of the NDP in 58.

So basically Eastern Francophones+Toronto suburbs and exurbs = Liberal

Some shaded maps - as usual, for both the winners' margins & the winners' vote shares:






For comparison/contrast, here are ones for 2018:






And for 2014 (notional results):





I haven't seen the 2014 notional results mapped before. Surprised to see the Liberals "won" Barrie-SOR and Flamborough-Glanbrook. Two ridings Trudeau hasn't been able to crack.

Tim Hudak ran a pretty scorched earth.  Harper at least was a known in 2015 and people were tired of him but wasn't same fear of unknown.  Harper got 35% in Ontario in 2015 while Hudak only 31% in 2014 so while not huge there were probably some normally Tory voters who felt Hudak went too far thus voted OLP, NDP or didn't vote at all, but stuck with Harper in 2015.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #810 on: June 07, 2022, 03:14:14 PM »

Hudak's awful campaign is the main reason Oshawa has an NDP MPP today.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #811 on: June 07, 2022, 03:21:47 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2022, 03:30:55 PM by DistingFlyer »

Ridings held by the Tories today where they came third in 2014 (11):

Brampton Centre (Lib 2014, NDP 2018, PC 2022)
Brampton East (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Brampton North (Lib 2014, NDP 2018, PC 2022)
Brampton West (Lib 2014, PC 2018 & 2022)
Etobicoke North (Lib 2014, PC 2018 & 2022)
Hamilton East – Stoney Creek (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Mississauga – Malton (Lib 2014, PC 2018 & 2022)
Sault Ste. Marie (Lib 2014, PC 2018 & 2022)
Thunder Bay – Atikokan (Lib 2014, NDP 2018, PC 2022)
Windsor – Tecumseh (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
York South – Weston (Lib 2014, NDP 2018, PC 2022)


Ridings held by the Tories in 2014, but not today (1):

Haldimand – Norfolk (PC 2014 & 2018, Ind 2022)


Ridings held by the NDP today where they came third in 2014 (4):

Hamilton West – Ancaster – Dundas (Lib 2014, NDP 2018 & 2022)
Ottawa West – Nepean (Lib 2014, PC 2018, NDP 2022)
St. Catharines (Lib 2014, NDP 2018 & 2022)
Toronto – St. Paul’s (Lib 2014, NDP 2018 & 2022)


Ridings held by the NDP in 2014, but not today (5):

Brampton East (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Essex (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Hamilton East – Stoney Creek (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Timmins (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
Windsor – Tecumseh (NDP 2014 & 2018, PC 2022)
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adma
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« Reply #812 on: June 07, 2022, 04:49:39 PM »


I haven't seen the 2014 notional results mapped before. Surprised to see the Liberals "won" Barrie-SOR and Flamborough-Glanbrook. Two ridings Trudeau hasn't been able to crack.

The former contained the heart of the formerly-coterminous Barrie riding, which Ann Hoggarth picked up for the Libs that year (and remember that Justin *nearly* won the new entity, to many people's surprise, in '15).  As far as the latter goes, it was Liberally skewed by the Ted McMeekin factor (Flamborough being his home turf--though ironically, the Libs did better that year in the Hudak-represented Glanbrook part than in the McMeekin-represented Flamborough part)
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Krago
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« Reply #813 on: June 07, 2022, 11:11:48 PM »

Elections Ontario has published the official poll-by-poll results for the 2022 provincial election for all 124 ridings.

https://www.elections.on.ca/en/resource-centre/elections-results.html#accordionResultsProcess

Good luck trying to find a summary.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #814 on: June 08, 2022, 08:06:26 AM »

Elections Ontario has published the official poll-by-poll results for the 2022 provincial election for all 124 ridings.

https://www.elections.on.ca/en/resource-centre/elections-results.html#accordionResultsProcess

Good luck trying to find a summary.

And no party labels on the individual riding pages either.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #815 on: June 08, 2022, 08:47:06 AM »


I haven't seen the 2014 notional results mapped before. Surprised to see the Liberals "won" Barrie-SOR and Flamborough-Glanbrook. Two ridings Trudeau hasn't been able to crack.

The former contained the heart of the formerly-coterminous Barrie riding, which Ann Hoggarth picked up for the Libs that year (and remember that Justin *nearly* won the new entity, to many people's surprise, in '15). 

Not to my surprise! I thought the Liberals would win both Barrie ridings in 2015: https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/ekos-seat-projection/
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mileslunn
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« Reply #816 on: June 08, 2022, 12:01:46 PM »

Elections Ontario has published the official poll-by-poll results for the 2022 provincial election for all 124 ridings.

https://www.elections.on.ca/en/resource-centre/elections-results.html#accordionResultsProcess

Good luck trying to find a summary.

That was fast, compared with federal election which took months.  Anybody able to start doing maps on these?  Also for anyone if people can give me poll numbers by municipality I can over the summer as in past breakdown results by county and municipality but may take some time.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #817 on: June 08, 2022, 12:35:39 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2022, 05:15:47 PM by DistingFlyer »

Elections Ontario has published the official poll-by-poll results for the 2022 provincial election for all 124 ridings.

https://www.elections.on.ca/en/resource-centre/elections-results.html#accordionResultsProcess

Good luck trying to find a summary.

Have updated the spreadsheet, but since Kiiwetinoong doesn't have an official count up yet I'll hold off before I update the uploaded version (or the maps).

Not much change, though it seems a couple thousand votes may have originally been put in the Oakville instead of Whitby by mistake (the Tory margin grew by about two thousand in the former, and shrank by about two thousand in the latter). Since they're on opposite sides of the 416 it seems a weird mistake, but computers have done worse.

Since there's no official summary count, here's what I have right now:

PC - 1,919,888
Lib - 1,124,050
NDP - 1,116,376
GP - 279,972
Other - 261,539
TOTAL - 4,701,825

If anyone has anything different please let me know & I'll check things over.

The un-updated Kiiwetinoong figures are 2743 NDP, 1424 PC, 283 Lib, 158 GP, 156 Other.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #818 on: June 08, 2022, 12:37:27 PM »

Elections Ontario has published the official poll-by-poll results for the 2022 provincial election for all 124 ridings.

https://www.elections.on.ca/en/resource-centre/elections-results.html#accordionResultsProcess

Good luck trying to find a summary.

That was fast, compared with federal election which took months.  Anybody able to start doing maps on these?  Also for anyone if people can give me poll numbers by municipality I can over the summer as in past breakdown results by county and municipality but may take some time.

If memory serves, the official federal constituency counts were all finished within a couple weeks of the last election (as always, some of the bigger/more remote ridings took longest). Most were done within one week.

As for maps, I've already done some constituency-level ones that are visible on previous pages here; will update them once the Kiiwetinoong count has been finalized.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #819 on: June 08, 2022, 02:16:04 PM »

PCs had a strong second so be interested in seeing poll by poll breakdown.  I am guessing PCs won the more wealthy parts while OLP dominated rest.  Amongst rentals probably got lots of strategic voters too.  As for wealthy voting Liberals now, I think that is true with top 10% but wouldn't be surprised if top 1% still votes Conservative.  Former is largely spared from tax hikes unlike in past when NDP used to run on raising taxes on everyone in top 10% (prior to 2000 provincial taxes were done as a percentage of federal, not independent like now) whereas top 1% have not been.  However top 1% too small in any riding to matter a lot but may in some polls.

Conservatives have been losing ground among the educated.  Education is the factor for liberalism of the top 10% since most are university graduates.  In top 1% where the vast majority are university grads, "too wealthy to give a damn" sentiment (or caring more about high taxation than "cultural liberalism") prevails.  Of course the 1% represent no more than 3% of all university grads.

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King of Kensington
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« Reply #820 on: June 08, 2022, 02:53:41 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2022, 02:58:31 PM by King of Kensington »

In DVW, definitely a split on old city of Toronto and Leaside vs. North York lines, and "1% rich" vs. the professionals in the top 10%.  Hence more PC support in York Mills, Bridle Path, Sunnybrook area and Lawrence Park, while Leaside, Davisville, Sherwood Park and Bedford Park are very Liberal.  
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adma
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« Reply #821 on: June 08, 2022, 08:56:03 PM »

In DVW, definitely a split on old city of Toronto and Leaside vs. North York lines, and "1% rich" vs. the professionals in the top 10%.  Hence more PC support in York Mills, Bridle Path, Sunnybrook area and Lawrence Park, while Leaside, Davisville, Sherwood Park and Bedford Park are very Liberal.  

Though I did notice through sloppy polling configurations that the federal Cons seemed to do a lot better in the Bedford/Lawrence Park area in '21 than in '19--perhaps because O'Toole was more "Bay Street compatible" than Scheer...
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adma
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« Reply #822 on: June 09, 2022, 05:01:49 PM »

And now the polling maps are posted on election-atlas.ca.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #823 on: June 10, 2022, 07:50:06 PM »

Looking at York South-Weston, it looks like Faisal Hassan held the largely African and TCHC polls while a lot of the "white ethnic" Liberal vote shifted to Ford. 
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adma
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« Reply #824 on: June 11, 2022, 05:20:17 AM »

Looking at York South-Weston, it looks like Faisal Hassan held the largely African and TCHC polls while a lot of the "white ethnic" Liberal vote shifted to Ford. 

And in Eglinton-Lawrence next door, the Liberal polls are now even more overwhelmingly North Toronto-concentrated--in the W of the riding, which *used* to be the anchor of Liberal support, the only spots of red remaining are around Villa Colombo, Lawrence Heights, the Marlee apartment corridor and the newer condos NE of Dufferin & Lawrence...
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