Ontario Election 2022

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be especially awful if there were some sort of precedent in Ontario's political history for this general situation.

[adma]

The NDP's no better, in light of how Horwath just couldn't step aside 2 years ago when the writing was on the wall because she's too proud to recognize that she'll never win enough of the province over.

But again, was the writing ever that clearly on the wall for *her*?  A lot of the problem might be more with how it's been decreed that the ONDP *at large* is too proud to recognize that they'll never win enough of the province over--*whatever* the leadership.

And the laughing-his-way-to-a-majority circumstance on Doug's part is at least in part through MSM decreeing that a dud like Del Duca is the "real" opposition, whatever the '18 seat totals.

[King of Kensington]

The 1990 map is impossible to replicate today.  The "regions" outside Toronto were less important then (905 area code came into existence in early 1990s), pre-sorting of the electorate on metropolitan/nonmetropolitan lines.

[adma]

The 1990 map is impossible to replicate today.  The "regions" outside Toronto were less important then (905 area code came into existence in early 1990s), pre-sorting of the electorate on metropolitan/nonmetropolitan lines.

Though as alluded to by Brampton, it could be "reconfigurable"; that is, an NDP operating on all cylinders can find a lot of the 1990-elusive outer 416 or Mississauga-type 905 within reach...

[Njall]

https://twitter.com/ipoliticsca/status/1529566579289112578?s=20&t=kPgQQz3gIe...

According to Mainstreet's riding poll, the Green candidate in Parry Sound-Muskoka has a lead of 43%-36% over the PC candidate. The usual caveats about riding poll accuracy and not underestimating the PC GOTV machine apply here, but this should be an interesting riding to watch on election night nevertheless.

[DL]

The latest Leger poll has the very familiar PC 38%, OLP 26% and NDP 24%

But i was really struck by the question about 2nd choice support. The poll says Liberal support is the softest and that over 60% of OLP voters have the NDP as their second choice. In contrast Ontario NDP support is quite solid and surprisingly few NDP voters have the Liberals as their second choice. More have the Greens as second

https://leger360.com/voting-intentions/provincial-politics-in-ontario-may-25-2022/

[DistingFlyer]

Poll graph update:

[adma]

It also sounds like that sub-20% Nanos NDP figure last week was an outlier.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/doug-ford-widens-lead-in-final-stretch-of-ontario-election-campaign-poll-suggests-1.5916650

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1529590077961142273?s=20&t=TSU6MhOOK1_K...

Speaking of the 905...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1529590077961142273?s=20&t=TSU6MhOOK1_K...
Speaking of the 905...

Holy s--- that's a lead. I don't think the PCs even got 50% in the 905 in 2018, in fact I'm pretty sure of it, they didn't cross 50% in most GTA ridings (York Region being an exception).

We could see a pattern this election, where the Liberals gain support in Toronto, Ottawa, and other major cities, the Tories lose support in rural Ontario (to New Blue), but gain support in the 905. Strategically, that's like the dream scenario in a "PCs lose support" election, as this one will likely be unless Ford somehow clears 40. You lose support overall, but gain where it matters most.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1529590077961142273?s=20&t=TSU6MhOOK1_K...
Speaking of the 905...

Holy s--- that's a lead. I don't think the PCs even got 50% in the 905 in 2018, in fact I'm pretty sure of it, they didn't cross 50% in most GTA ridings (York Region being an exception).

We could see a pattern this election, where the Liberals gain support in Toronto, Ottawa, and other major cities, the Tories lose support in rural Ontario (to New Blue), but gain support in the 905. Strategically, that's like the dream scenario in a "PCs lose support" election, as this one will likely be unless Ford somehow clears 40. You lose support overall, but gain where it matters most.

It seems big difference in support between Ontario PCs and federal Tories is amongst ethnic communities.  Ford does very well in immigrant communities unlike federal Tories and big reason why in suburban 416 and 905 belt he should win more seats.

Elsewhere I could see PCs gaining some working class seats like Oshawa, Niagara Centre, and Essex which sort of similar to your Obama-Trump areas in US and Red Wall in UK.  Not just in Ontario, but nationally and in other English speaking countries, right has been gaining in traditional working class areas, but this is offset by loss of support in upper middle class areas which are swinging leftward.  Its why Eglinton-Lawrence and maybe Mississauga-Lakeshore and Milton could go Liberal. 

[mileslunn]

If the OLP can't get past 30% they won't even make Official Opposition even if they get more votes than the ONDP.

OLP vote unlike NDP is very spread out which is good when ahead thus as we saw federally, can win vast majority of seats with only a relatively modest lead.  But bad when behind as means fewer areas of concentration.  NDP vote much more concentrated thus can get several seats even in a bad election, but means if get competitive overall, have trouble translating into seats as just run up margins in areas already winning while not enough to flip areas they need to.

[toaster]

If the OLP can't get past 30% they won't even make Official Opposition even if they get more votes than the ONDP.

OLP vote unlike NDP is very spread out which is good when ahead thus as we saw federally, can win vast majority of seats with only a relatively modest lead.  But bad when behind as means fewer areas of concentration.  NDP vote much more concentrated thus can get several seats even in a bad election, but means if get competitive overall, have trouble translating into seats as just run up margins in areas already winning while not enough to flip areas they need to.

The York Region effect here.. ONDP can be at 0% (or very close to it) in all of the York region ridings, which tends to bump up that 24% they are polling at province wide to 30%+.  the Libs don't really have that, at least historically speaking. It's a good problem to have.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It seems big difference in support between Ontario PCs and federal Tories is amongst ethnic communities.  Ford does very well in immigrant communities unlike federal Tories and big reason why in suburban 416 and 905 belt he should win more seats.

More accurately, Tories in either level do better amongst ethnic communities when they win. Just in 2011 for example, Harper's CPC racked up the "ethnic vote" and dominated the 905. Same year, Hudak's PCs made gains, brought the Libs down to a minority, but couldn't get the job done because of their poor showing in the GTA. Ford obviously has a uniquely strong appeal to ethnoburbia, but I don't think the PCPO is a party that has a unique attractiveness to ethnoburban voters, or that the CPC is a party that has a unique repulsiveness to them.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I've been wondering: what happens in the event that two parties tie for second place? For example, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Liberals and NDP both tied at 20 seats in this election. Who becomes official opposition? Do we have any precedent for this in Canada?

[DL]

If the OLP can't get past 30% they won't even make Official Opposition even if they get more votes than the ONDP.

OLP vote unlike NDP is very spread out which is good when ahead thus as we saw federally, can win vast majority of seats with only a relatively modest lead.  But bad when behind as means fewer areas of concentration.  NDP vote much more concentrated thus can get several seats even in a bad election, but means if get competitive overall, have trouble translating into seats as just run up margins in areas already winning while not enough to flip areas they need to.

Very true. Look at what happened in Ontario in the 2011 federal election. the Tories under Harper swept the province with 44% of the vote but the NDP and Liberals were tied with 25% each - and that yielded 22 NDP seats and just 11 Liberals seats. The challenge for the Liberals is that to get into the "payout zone" in seats they have to do well enough in Peel and York regions to win back a ton of Tory seats and so far they show no signs of doing that. I suspect the Liberals will also have a turnout challenge since Liberals tend to go out and vote when they are either enthusiastic or scared - and in this election they are neither of those things.  

[DL]

I've been wondering: what happens in the event that two parties tie for second place? For example, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Liberals and NDP both tied at 20 seats in this election. Who becomes official opposition? Do we have any precedent for this in Canada?

Actually there is a precedent for this. I think it happened in Saskatchewan in the 70s when the Liberals and PCs were tied. If I'm not mistaken the party that is the incumbent official opposition retains the title! But i could be wrong

[King of Kensington]

Del Duca is narrowly behind in Vaughan-Woodbridge according to a Mainstreet riding poll:

https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/26/riding-poll-del-duca-behind-in-vaughan-woodbridge/

[DL]

Del Duca is narrowly behind in Vaughan-Woodbridge according to a Mainstreet riding poll:

https://www.qpbriefing.com/2022/05/26/riding-poll-del-duca-behind-in-vaughan-woodbridge/

I suspect both the NDP and to a lesser extent the PCs secretly want Del Duca to win his seat - that way he stays as Liberal leader and continues to be a total turn-off to voters. If he loses - there is a chance the OLP might pick a new leader who is less repulsive

[Njall]

I've been wondering: what happens in the event that two parties tie for second place? For example, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Liberals and NDP both tied at 20 seats in this election. Who becomes official opposition? Do we have any precedent for this in Canada?

Actually there is a precedent for this. I think it happened in Saskatchewan in the 70s when the Liberals and PCs were tied. If I'm not mistaken the party that is the incumbent official opposition retains the title! But i could be wrong

There's a precedent in Alberta from 2014, when Danielle Smith led most of the Wildrose caucus across the floor to the PCs. 5 Wildrose MLAs refused to cross the floor, and the Liberals (who also had a caucus of 5) challenged them for the Official Opposition title. The Speaker ruled that the Wildrose would stay as Official Opposition as they were the incumbents.

[DL]

I've been wondering: what happens in the event that two parties tie for second place? For example, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Liberals and NDP both tied at 20 seats in this election. Who becomes official opposition? Do we have any precedent for this in Canada?

Actually there is a precedent for this. I think it happened in Saskatchewan in the 70s when the Liberals and PCs were tied. If I'm not mistaken the party that is the incumbent official opposition retains the title! But i could be wrong

There's a precedent in Alberta from 2014, when Danielle Smith led most of the Wildrose caucus across the floor to the PCs. 5 Wildrose MLAs refused to cross the floor, and the Liberals (who also had a caucus of 5) challenged them for the Official Opposition title. The Speaker ruled that the Wildrose would stay as Official Opposition as they were the incumbents.

Its a bit of a different situation when you have a tie as a result of floor crossing mid-session as opposed to a tie in seats from an election

[MaxQue]

In Quebec, last time, PQ and QS both won 10 seats. The title of second opposition was given to the PQ, as they got more votes, and the title of third opposition to QS (it switched later when someone left PQ, due a decision by the Speaker)

[DistingFlyer]

I've been wondering: what happens in the event that two parties tie for second place? For example, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Liberals and NDP both tied at 20 seats in this election. Who becomes official opposition? Do we have any precedent for this in Canada?

Actually there is a precedent for this. I think it happened in Saskatchewan in the 70s when the Liberals and PCs were tied. If I'm not mistaken the party that is the incumbent official opposition retains the title! But i could be wrong

There's a precedent in Alberta from 2014, when Danielle Smith led most of the Wildrose caucus across the floor to the PCs. 5 Wildrose MLAs refused to cross the floor, and the Liberals (who also had a caucus of 5) challenged them for the Official Opposition title. The Speaker ruled that the Wildrose would stay as Official Opposition as they were the incumbents.

Its a bit of a different situation when you have a tie as a result of floor crossing mid-session as opposed to a tie in seats from an election

It also happened in Nova Scotia in 1999, when the Liberals went from a minority government to tied with the NDP at 11 MLAs each; the NDP, which was the Official Opposition going in, held that title as a) they had it already and b) they got more votes than the Liberals (albeit 0.1% more). They also looked like electing 12 members to the Liberals' 11 on election night itself, before recounts put them at 11 apiece.

[Pericles]

I've been wondering: what happens in the event that two parties tie for second place? For example, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Liberals and NDP both tied at 20 seats in this election. Who becomes official opposition? Do we have any precedent for this in Canada?

Actually there is a precedent for this. I think it happened in Saskatchewan in the 70s when the Liberals and PCs were tied. If I'm not mistaken the party that is the incumbent official opposition retains the title! But i could be wrong

There's a precedent in Alberta from 2014, when Danielle Smith led most of the Wildrose caucus across the floor to the PCs. 5 Wildrose MLAs refused to cross the floor, and the Liberals (who also had a caucus of 5) challenged them for the Official Opposition title. The Speaker ruled that the Wildrose would stay as Official Opposition as they were the incumbents.

Its a bit of a different situation when you have a tie as a result of floor crossing mid-session as opposed to a tie in seats from an election

It also happened in Nova Scotia in 1999, when the Liberals went from a minority government to tied with the NDP at 11 MLAs each; the NDP, which was the Official Opposition going in, held that title as a) they had it already and b) they got more votes than the Liberals (albeit 0.1% more). They also looked like electing 12 members to the Liberals' 11 on election night itself, before recounts put them at 11 apiece.

It seems from the seat projections that if the Liberals and NDP tie for seats, the Liberals would have more votes though.

[DL]

In determining which party should be the official opposition the share of the popular vote is totally irrelevant