Ontario Election 2022

[toaster]

CBC Polltracker has the Greens at 12.9% in Northern Ontario, and actually winning Parry Sound - Muskoka.

[jaichind]

How much of a problem are New Blue Party and Ontario Party for PC?    Namely are they stronger in PC strongholds (which would mean no problem for PC) or are they stronger in marginal districts (which would mean plenty of problems for PC)?

[DC Al Fine]

How much of a problem are New Blue Party and Ontario Party for PC?    Namely are they stronger in PC strongholds (which would mean no problem for PC) or are they stronger in marginal districts (which would mean plenty of problems for PC)?

We don't have a ton to go on for polling. Many pollsters are still including them under "Other". I'd use PPC results as a rough proxy. I.e. the right of Tory parties will likely do best in rural southwestern Ontario (safe Tory) and northern Ontario (could potentially cost them Parry Sound-Muskoka and some pickups from the NDP).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

How much of a problem are New Blue Party and Ontario Party for PC? Namely are they stronger in PC strongholds (which would mean no problem for PC) or are they stronger in marginal districts (which would mean plenty of problems for PC)?

We don't have a ton to go on for polling. Many pollsters are still including them under "Other". I'd use PPC results as a rough proxy. I.e. the right of Tory parties will likely do best in rural southwestern Ontario (safe Tory) and northern Ontario (could potentially cost them Parry Sound-Muskoka and some pickups from the NDP).

Although anger about COVID measures will probably mobilize less people at this point. I think New Blue will do better in traditionally conservative areas in relation to the PPC; i.e, I can see them pulling good results in Haldimand-Norfolk for example, but maybe not as well as the PPC in Timmins or Windsor West

[Poirot]

A poll of 500 franco-Ontarians with a margin of error of 5%.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1884792/sondage-elections-ontario-francophonie-doug-ford-ipsos

27,7% would vote for the Liberal candidate, 26,4% for PC candidate, 21,9% for NDP, 11,2% don't know, 10% Green.

Most important issue, the top three are: cost of living 30%, economy 15% and health care system 14%.

Leader who would make the best Premier: Ford 31%, Horwath 20%, Don't know 16%, Del Luca 14%

Which party is bertter to defend franco-Ontarian interests: Liberal 30%, Don't know 21%, ONDP 16%, None of them 14%, PC 13%, Green 7%.

[adma]

How much of a problem are New Blue Party and Ontario Party for PC? Namely are they stronger in PC strongholds (which would mean no problem for PC) or are they stronger in marginal districts (which would mean plenty of problems for PC)?

We don't have a ton to go on for polling. Many pollsters are still including them under "Other". I'd use PPC results as a rough proxy. I.e. the right of Tory parties will likely do best in rural southwestern Ontario (safe Tory) and northern Ontario (could potentially cost them Parry Sound-Muskoka and some pickups from the NDP).

Although anger about COVID measures will probably mobilize less people at this point. I think New Blue will do better in traditionally conservative areas in relation to the PPC; i.e, I can see them pulling good results in Haldimand-Norfolk for example, but maybe not as well as the PPC in Timmins or Windsor West

And don't discount the possibility of the dissident-right forces pulling a "promiscuous populist" vote away from the NDP as well--so the net effect might be a wash.  Thus in a riding like Essex, there might be the likelihood of the Tories winning with a reduced share from that which they lost with in '18--but the NDP, Libs, Greens, and dissident-right dividing the rest...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

A poll of 500 franco-Ontarians with a margin of error of 5%.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1884792/sondage-elections-ontario-francophonie-doug-ford-ipsos

27,7% would vote for the Liberal candidate, 26,4% for PC candidate, 21,9% for NDP, 11,2% don't know, 10% Green.

Most important issue, the top three are: cost of living 30%, economy 15% and health care system 14%.

Leader who would make the best Premier: Ford 31%, Horwath 20%, Don't know 16%, Del Luca 14%

Which party is bertter to defend franco-Ontarian interests: Liberal 30%, Don't know 21%, ONDP 16%, None of them 14%, PC 13%, Green 7%.

Interesting stuff. Liberals poll well (and PCs abysmally) when it comes to "defending Franco-ON interests", and this tracks with the general image and how Franco rights activists tend to align politically. But that doesn't seem to be the main thing Franco-Ontarians will be voting on.

[adma]

*Now* a pollster is showing the NDP below the critical 20% threshold, seemingly dented by the Greens' good debate performance.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-s-pcs-maintain-lead-ndp-support-slips-survey-1.5909273

By comparison, Mainstreet today shows the NDP-Lib gap *tightening*, not broadening.

Still, it's worth considering how when it comes to who has the upper hand on the "strategic left", 20% has become something of a man-the-lifeboats "threshold of doom"--it was the case federally with the Iggy Liberals in '11 and the Mulcair Dippers in '15, and provincially with the Wynne Liberals in '18.  And *if* that Nanos number foretells more like it, don't be surprised if there's any number of '18 NDP seats (like, Toronto's "downtown 3") that shift Liberal not out of any strong feelings for Del Duca, but out of a presumption that the old Lib/PC-favouring binary order's "organically" reasserting itself--setting a foundation for '26, IOW.

And again, even if Del Duca was a dud in the debate, it *may* have been successful in conveying an impression of that "natural binary order"--sort of like how Mulroney vs Turner conveyed the same federally in '88, while Ed Broadbent fatally failed to "seize the spotlight" in the same way...

[MaxQue]

*Now* a pollster is showing the NDP below the critical 20% threshold, seemingly dented by the Greens' good debate performance.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-s-pcs-maintain-lead-ndp-support-slips-survey-1.5909273

I think it's pretty clear by now that Nanos' numbers are always underreporting NDP, except in the last week polls...

[adma]

CBC Polltracker has the Greens at 12.9% in Northern Ontario, and actually winning Parry Sound - Muskoka.

Wonder what Graydon Smith must be thinking ;-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGp9eQoiUTc

[adma]

*Now* a pollster is showing the NDP below the critical 20% threshold, seemingly dented by the Greens' good debate performance.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-s-pcs-maintain-lead-ndp-support-slips-survey-1.5909273

I think it's pretty clear by now that Nanos' numbers are always underreporting NDP, except in the last week polls...

Even so, it always pays to be alert.

But that said, I'm finding that this NDP sogginess is leading to a lot of overstatement re some kind of "Liberal wave"; because there really *isn't*, from what I can tell, any big trend--in the 905 or 416 or anyplace else--t/w the Del Duca Libs.  The re-Duverger-ization of the Grits, if that's what it is, remains *very* weak-blooded--to the point where even w/a weakened NDP, I'm not even so sure that some of the presently-Tory "gimme seats" such as Eglinton-Lawrence are in the bag for the OLP...

[DL]

The Mainstreet daily tracking has the NDP pulling ahead of the OLP for the first time on popular vote and up 33-13 in seats!

[Hatman 🍁]

The Mainstreet daily tracking has the NDP pulling ahead of the OLP for the first time on popular vote and up 33-13 in seats!

I wonder if people are taking a look at their local campaigns in terms of making up their minds about who to vote for to stop Ford. Incumbency helping out the NDP, not to mention having more money and infrastructure.

[adma]

The Mainstreet daily tracking has the NDP pulling ahead of the OLP for the first time on popular vote and up 33-13 in seats!

I wonder if people are taking a look at their local campaigns in terms of making up their minds about who to vote for to stop Ford. Incumbency helping out the NDP, not to mention having more money and infrastructure.

I'd also wonder if there's a Covid "sympathy bump" on Andrea's behalf.

Still, at least on generic-hypothetical grounds, I stand by my strategic "concern trolling" over that Nanos sub-20 outlier(?).  But yeah; something like that lukewarm NDP support *and* lukewarm Liberal support doesn't compute--for some reason, it just doesn't feel like a "'87 Peterson landslide" in the cards for Doug, at least on seat-tally grounds.

So if the NDP truly *isn't* rolling over and playing dead and if these are indeed the figures in the works, then the biggest casualty of this election is the diehard establishment-centre-left whose entitlement complex were banking on *any* big wave of strategic accrual within the Del Duca camp--even if it were less about winning this time than about preparing for 2026.  More so than the NDP not getting any closer to government, presumably falling even further back, Andrea's leadership in its presumed twilight, etc...

[brucejoel99]

The Mainstreet daily tracking has the NDP pulling ahead of the OLP for the first time on popular vote and up 33-13 in seats!

This may be something of an OO watershed moment. Tactical voting means that the second the OLP starts to lose steam as the obvious ABC vote, a ton of their fence-support could instantly start to vanish. It really might've been all that they had.

[DistingFlyer]

Haven't updated this for a few days; allow me to rectify:

[adma]

It'd seem like Libs have pulled back ahead of NDP a hair via Mainstreet; but the Tories are still settling downward (now 34%)--maybe they *will* pull a minority situation out of the hat?

[adma]

And while I have referred to the 20% "threshold of doom" for the strategic left, I'm wondering what passing beneath the 35% threshold might mean for seat numbers--all along, there's been an operating assumption that the PCs were headed closer to the 40th than 35th percentile, which'd mean a '18 repeat-if-not-even-better.  (Then again, there's also that "shy Tory" polling tendency--that is, '18 not being as PC/NDP dead-heat as pre-election polling seemed to have it.  But it's hard to tell how willing the New Blue/Ontario Party dissident-right realm is to "return home" come e-day.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Haven't updated this for a few days; allow me to rectify:

A good debate performance always helps minor parties/candidates, and we're seeing that for the Greens/Schreiner. Interesting though that Green gains are correlating with PC losses. As far as the debate goes, Ford was better than Horwath and Del Duca, and Ford has been getting unusually good press post-Omicron.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Mainstreet daily tracking has the NDP pulling ahead of the OLP for the first time on popular vote and up 33-13 in seats!

This may be something of an OO watershed moment. Tactical voting means that the second the OLP starts to lose steam as the obvious ABC vote, a ton of their fence-support could instantly start to vanish. It really might've been all that they had.

Yeah there's a chance of the Liberals getting NDP'd this election; that is, their campaign is resonating with accessible voters, but incumbency is helping the NDP. As in, "I like the Del Duca guy, but my MPP is NDP, I like him/her" or "the NDP won here last time and the Liberals came third, so I'm voting NDP to stop the PCs" (although that logic has a strong potential to backfire, it almost certainly will in many ridings, because we can see that a significant part of the 2018 NDP vote is going Liberal).

[Krago]

Here is my attempt to estimate the seat outcome based on PC and Liberal polling figures.
Greens fixed at 7%, Others at 6%, and NDP is 87% - PC% - Lib%

[RogueBeaver]

Grit internals have the Tories at 40% but claim they have an opening to deny Ford a majority.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Grit internals have the Tories at 40% but claim they have an opening to deny Ford a majority.

I believe the numbers and the narrative that the Liberals could shut out the PCs from a majority, but the campaign they have run so far ain't cutting it, and it may take some really bad press for Ford in the last minute to change that (which might be hard, because even the Star is giving him good headlines now). The Liberals have a much greater risk of being sandwiched between the PCs and the NDP, with the PCs hanging onto a majority because the generic suburbanite vote (which is accessible for the Liberals) is satisfied enough with Ford, while the NDP at least has an incumbency advantage in more progressive areas.

[King of Kensington]

If the OLP can't get past 30% they won't even make Official Opposition even if they get more votes than the ONDP.

[brucejoel99]

Ford must be laughing his ass off right now, literally walking into another massive majority just for showing up. The NDP & OLP are so easily re-electing him that not only should this election have been called before the writ even dropped, but they should be embarrassed for running worse campaigns than would've been run by somebody trying to do this terribly. He could've been stopped from dismantling provincial healthcare & education services to spend billions on a highway that'll do nothing to relieve gridlock, but noooo, the OLP just has to offer every Ontarian such currently popular policies as a ban on handguns, mask-mandate reinstatements, & a legit $1 transit plan that nobody's even heard about because they're not told about it enough to matter anyway. The NDP's no better, in light of how Horwath just couldn't step aside 2 years ago when the writing was on the wall because she's too proud to recognize that she'll never win enough of the province over.