AZ - Bendixen & Amandi: Biden +7 over Trump

[Astatine]

Biden 51 %
Trump 44 %
Don't know/No answer 5 %

600 RV
Fieldwork: 17-23 June 2021

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017a-53b6-d92f-a1fe-d3f62f8b0000

[SnowLabrador]

If this poll has Biden +7, it's probably a tossup.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, the moE is 4 pts, so I suppose this more likely like Biden +3. In addition, the favorables are much closer with Biden just +1 and Trump -5.

That said, it's very possible so called "vote audit" by GOP lawfirms have backfired and Kelli Ward is working overtime to make her party's brand in Phoenix suburbs so toxic that Dems should have a good shot to at least reelect Kelly next year. As for the gov race, it's possibly close to Lean R while I'd rate 2024 as Tilt D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH snap it's a RV poll not a LV second thought it's probably Biden plus 3

[UncleSam]

Not the best poll for Biden considering the source but I can’t believe some of the above are borderline dooming on a poll which has Biden outrunning his 2020 self by almost 7 lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not the best poll for Biden considering the source but I can’t believe some of the above are borderline dooming on a poll which has Biden outrunning his 2020 self by almost 7 lol

ITS A RV POLL NOT A LV POLL ITS BIDEN POLL 3 TAKE 4 AWAY DUE RO H EFFECT

[pbrower2a]

Unless Arizona is taking a sharp D trend out of line with the rest of the USA, these results bode extreme trouble for the Republican Party nationwide. If only in Arizona, then this is trouble in Arizona.   

[Devils30]

Biden expanding from 0.3% to even 3-4% in AZ is an excellent result.

[Crumpets]

Biden over 50% is always a good sign.

[Chips]

Very interesting poll. Didn't read about it until recent.

[Hope For A New Era]

Actually Biden +2

Undecideds are Closet Republicans

[Biden his time]

Did they poll Biden vs. DeSantis or Biden vs. Generic R?
I would be very curious to see those numbers and if they're significantly different.

What do the crosstabs say for Biden/Trump voters in the 2020 election?

Also, do they have the favorable on Kamala Harris and other likely-to-run candidates?

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[Person Man]

Though I wouldn't say Arizona is becoming a "must win" state for Democrats the same way that Michigan or Pennsylvania is, I would say that it's becoming harder to imagine them winning without it.

I predicted Biden would lose without it and win with it.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Though I wouldn't say Arizona is becoming a "must win" state for Democrats the same way that Michigan or Pennsylvania is, I would say that it's becoming harder to imagine them winning without it.

I predicted Biden would lose without it and win with it.

It is a replacement for WI, in the event that it turns into IA like doomers say.

[Person Man]

Though I wouldn't say Arizona is becoming a "must win" state for Democrats the same way that Michigan or Pennsylvania is, I would say that it's becoming harder to imagine them winning without it.

I predicted Biden would lose without it and win with it.

It is a replacement for WI, in the event that it turns into IA like doomers say.

Coming into 2028?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Though I wouldn't say Arizona is becoming a "must win" state for Democrats the same way that Michigan or Pennsylvania is, I would say that it's becoming harder to imagine them winning without it.

I predicted Biden would lose without it and win with it.

It is a replacement for WI, in the event that it turns into IA like doomers say.

Coming into 2028?

WI isn't LR

[Person Man]

Though I wouldn't say Arizona is becoming a "must win" state for Democrats the same way that Michigan or Pennsylvania is, I would say that it's becoming harder to imagine them winning without it.

I predicted Biden would lose without it and win with it.

It is a replacement for WI, in the event that it turns into IA like doomers say.

Coming into 2028?

WI isn't LR

If 2024 is a median year in terms of the national popular vote since 2000 and given trends, Wisconsin would probably vote Republican by almost 2 points. Arizona would probably vote democratic by more than 1%. There's no evidence that something like that would happen, but it is a plausible outcome at this point. Of course if the basic bitch "comes home" and the Hispanic vote doesn't, it could be DeSantis that wins Wisconsin by 11 PM and Arizona gets instacalled for him. OTOH, if the opposite is true, I could see both Arizona and Wisconsin being called quickly for Biden/Harris.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tammy Baldwin is on the Ballot she isn't loosing she won a landslide in 2018, users always think WI is a tilt R state no it's not

[pbrower2a]

Not the best poll for Biden considering the source but I can’t believe some of the above are borderline dooming on a poll which has Biden outrunning his 2020 self by almost 7 lol

ITS A RV POLL NOT A LV POLL ITS BIDEN POLL 3 TAKE 4 AWAY DUE RO H EFFECT

Nobody yet knows who the likely voters will be. A huge number of people considered "likely voters" may have even voted before their votes were disqualified (death) in 2020. 2020 showed such an extreme effect due to COVID-19.