Will Biden run for re-election?

[Inmate Trump]

Last year I thought that if he won he'd only serve one term and hand it over to Harris.

But now I think he'll run again.

[SWE]

As long as he's still alive

I never bought the bizarre "he's just running for one term and will hand it over to Harris" line. There was never any basis to it and it doesn't make any sense. Why would he?

[PSOL]

Biden is having the time of his life in being president, so no, he will run again. Health reasons will not stop him running again—as Feinstein, Reagan, Trump, and the gerontocracy of our politics attests to—as voters really do not care about health-related issues of their politicians if they deliver on keeping them satisfied.

On that note, given how loud I am on my distaste for Joe Biden, the supposed strain of age being promoted since the last Democratic primary is overblown. Joe Biden is not some frail 95 year old on the  cusp of death, he also isn’t having symptoms of dementia. He is not seemingly sharp in a public setting on account of his age and his personality, but outside of these personal settings he can still do his job just fine. In all honesty, we would have had some leaks from staffers or anywhere else of his age getting in the way of his job just as we did with Trump, the money and demand for it is there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be different running with an R H and a DS, that's what Trump had to do in 2020 and it's gonna be a tricky situation just like in 2012/ that's why I said he will only give it to Harris should he get impeached for the Hunter Biden probe, which of course he would be Acquitted by the Senate

But, he's definitely planning to run in 2024/ but while he has a DH, and DS he needs to limit fracking, with an RH he won't be able to do it

Harris if she is Elected in 2028 already said she is antifracking

[SN2903]

My gut is he doesn't run again.

Your gut said a lot of stupid nonsense.

Matt Bevin would win, Jon Bel Edwards would lose, Trump would be re-elected, Loeffler and Perdue would win, and so on.

Yeah my gut like I said Trump would win in 2016 and was off by 1 state, that the 2020 election Trump would win narrowly and my prediction was more right than 80% of people on here

[Woody]

He will be running for the nursing home by that time.

[Sir Mohamed]

He will be running for the nursing home by that time.

Still better than being likely to face numerous indictments by then.

[Woody]

He will be running for the nursing home by that time.

Still better than being likely to face numerous indictments by then.

The indictments in your head.

[dw93]

I think the chances of Biden running again are higher now than I thought they were 6 months ago, that said I still don't rule out the possibility of him stepping down after one term. By no means is he the senile invalid that the seditious right is making him out to be, but his age is starting the show and god knows what toll another 2-3 years in the Presidency is gonna take on a guy who's gonna be 82 by the end of 2024. That said, if Biden does have any health issues and declines to seek another term that's gonna hurt a potential Trump run in 2024 as Trump will be the same age in 2024 that Biden was in 2020.

[President Johnson]

I think the chances of Biden running again are higher now than I thought they were 6 months ago, that said I still don't rule out the possibility of him stepping down after one term. By no means is he the senile invalid that the seditious right is making him out to be, but his age is starting the show and god knows what toll another 2-3 years in the Presidency is gonna take on a guy who's gonna be 82 by the end of 2024. That said, if Biden does have any health issues and declines to seek another term that's gonna hurt a potential Trump run in 2024 as Trump will be the same age in 2024 that Biden was in 2020.

Not sure about the latter. Trump has time and time demonstrated again he's able to escape the gravity of traditional political rules. His voters just won't care and he'll claim to always have been in "excellent health" while "Sleepy Joe" hasn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis would win GA, but he won't win the Rust belt all INCUMBENTs D's are up for Reelection and won by landslide that protect the blue wall

[Senator-elect Spark]

He will be running for the nursing home by that time.

[Pericles]

He will be running for the nursing home by that time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He will be running for the nursing home by that time.

The indictments on Trump is the Obstruction of Justice and the Justice Dept hasn't investigated it yet, but if Rs take over the H, we will hear more about Ukraine and Trump and Hunter Biden, maybe that will spark the Justice Dept onto investigating Trump on Obstructing Justice that they won't do now

That's why Doug Jones wasn't selected as AG, instead Garland was, Jones was independent of Biden, that's why Bernie wasn't selected as Prez, D's thought they would fair better in the Election with Biden but they did the same, Pelosi couldn't control Bernie
Still better than being likely to face numerous indictments by then.

The indictments in your head.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This thread again? Barring a major health issue, a nosedive in popularity spurred by a major crisis of his doing, or an economic downturn (or some combination of all three), I still say that he does run for re-election. The guy has wanted to be President all his life, and finally is, even in his old age. I really can't see him wanting to give up that or his incumbency advantage. Even if he is hesitant I think party influences will convince him to run again. If he is indeed too old and decrepit to serve another term, I don't see why he can't just resign and hand the presidency over to Harris after already potentially being re-elected.

[Illini Moderate]

And let Kamala lose the GE? Nah idts

[South Dakota Democrat]

He will be running for the nursing home by that time.

I think he's more with it than you are.

Also, weren't you supposed to leave Atlas for a year?

[South Dakota Democrat]

He will be running for the nursing home by that time.

Still better than being likely to face numerous indictments by then.

The indictments in your head.

You are profoundly stupid.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And let Kamala lose the GE? Nah idts

Kamala is leading Trump and DeSantos 47/40% in GE polls I'm IPSOS because the Rs PASS TAX CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY AND OIL FRACK THAT CAUSES DAMAGE TO THE ENVIRONMENT

[slothdem]

The three highest ranking Dems in the House are all Octogenarians and Stephen Breyer is steadfast in his refusal to retire, potentially permanently jeopardizing the entire liberal movement. The idea that Biden won't seek office because he's too old is contrary to everything that is happening in politics today, and all of the trumpy/left wishcasting in the world will not change that.

Plus, the chief looks great and all that ice cream is keeping his spirits high.

[Del Tachi]

It's not like he hasn't already said that he is or anything.

Well, of course he would say that.  If Biden wants to get Congress to pursue a bold legislative agenda he has to angle himself as a potential electoral force in 2024.  Announcing or indicating that he won't run for a second term now would destroy most of his currently available political capital and give him the stench of a lame-duck three years too soon.

Biden's whole raison d'etre for running in 2020 was to be the Democrat unifying enough to soundly defeat Donald Trump, who Biden views as an existential threat to American democracy.  If Biden feels Trump has been dispatched in 2024, then he loses a big motivation for potentially seeking a second term.  Biden sat out an open Democratic primary in 2016, so it's also reasonable to question the assumption that he would not walk away from the White House when he declined to pull the trigger at what was believed to be his last chance to do so. 

The fact of the matter is that, as of this juncture, no one really knows what Biden may be planning to do in 2024.  Biden himself is probably personally undecided, even.  The good health of a 78-year old American man is not something you can assume for the next three years, much less seven (see: Senators McCain and Ted Kennedy.)   

[brucejoel99]

It's not like he hasn't already said that he is or anything.

Well, of course he would say that.  If Biden wants to get Congress to pursue a bold legislative agenda he has to angle himself as a potential electoral force in 2024.  Announcing or indicating that he won't run for a second term now would destroy most of his currently available political capital and give him the stench of a lame-duck three years too soon.

Biden's whole raison d'etre for running in 2020 was to be the Democrat unifying enough to soundly defeat Donald Trump, who Biden views as an existential threat to American democracy.  If Biden feels Trump has been dispatched in 2024, then he loses a big motivation for potentially seeking a second term.  Biden sat out an open Democratic primary in 2016, so it's also reasonable to question the assumption that he would not walk away from the White House when he declined to pull the trigger at what was believed to be his last chance to do so. 

The fact of the matter is that, as of this juncture, no one really knows what Biden may be planning to do in 2024.  Biden himself is probably personally undecided, even.  The good health of a 78-year old American man is not something you can assume for the next three years, much less seven (see: Senators McCain and Ted Kennedy.)   

Although your reasoning is mostly sound, it's simply not significantly persuading insofar as refuting his publicly-stated intent that's frankly supported by the vast majority of the available circumstantial evidence on the matter is concerned.

For one, I just don't find it unreasonable to presume that a guy who's wanted to be President for a long-enough time that he sought the job 3 times over the course of 32 years (the lattermost time knowing - even after watching the detrimental effects that it had on #44 everyday for 8 years day in & day out - that he'd the oldest person to ever hold the office in the event that he won) is open to the idea of serving as President for a majority of his 80s. Indeed, I think Atlas as a collective has consistently underestimated the depth of Biden's desire to be President. As American politicians go, it's just not reasonable to assume that they'd think about running for the Presidency for 5+ decades, seek it multiple times over the course of 32 years, & finally reach that mountain-top only to then say, "meh, 1 term was enough, I think I'm done now."

As for Biden having only ran in 2020 because he thought he was the only potential Democratic candidate who was capable of beating Trump, I think that's become at least a bit of a revisionist myth in recent discussions. Yes, Trump's.. well, being Trump (particularly with regards to Charlottesville, which Biden publicly pointed to on multiple occasions) is certainly something that helped to motivate his ultimate decision to proceed with a run, but he was already planning said run by May 2017, which - being 3 months before Charlottesville & well before we started to understand just how bad a President Trump would truly end up being from the average Democrat's perspective - seems to be indicative of the previous understanding at hand: that this is somebody who's always had that want for the presidency in the back of his head even if the timing was just never right, finally saw an opening in the aftermath of Hillary's upset defeat that was too good to resist, & provided the rationale necessary to back up the message that he was gonna be campaigning on anyway (i.e., "restoring the soul of America"). Indeed, that much is bolstered by the fact that he didn't even sit 2016 out because he didn't value an opportunity at hand of trying to finally get elected President so much as he sat it out because he & his team concluded that Hillary - not least due to Obama's behind-the-scenes support of her - was unbeatable & because he & his family didn't consider themselves to be up to the emotional task of a full-scale presidential run right after Beau's passing.

All of that's before one even considers the fact that his camp has already backtracked on the oft-noted "transitional candidate" line, with his own sister/one of his closest political advisors having already offered a 'what he really meant' - that "[h]e's transitional in that he's bringing in all these young people and bringing [us] back again [so] we're not a divided country.... But sure. He's going strong" with regards to the fact - as she sees it - that he'll "absolutely" run for a 2nd term.

Combine all of that with the fact that he seemingly instinctually said stuff like "in my first 4 years alone" & "just in my 1st term" over the course of campaign town-hall Q&A's & the like without even thinking about it (which - if, as hypothesized, was just anti-lame duck posturing⁠ - is posturing that nobody outside of us junkies who've been paying attention to such deep posturing would notice, given that he could've just-as-easily instinctually said stuff along the lines of "what I'll do as President" without the 99.99% of America's non-Atlas browsing population even noticing the difference), & it just sounds like Biden is somebody who - health permitting - was indeed being truthful when he publicly stated that his intent is to run for re-election, which is why I tend to think that what he's said - & said rather consistently so, given the aforementioned campaign excerpts - is actually how he feels on the matter rather than some 4D-chess style move to not be a lame-duck, especially in light of recent reporting that his "resolve to run in 2024" has only ever grown since finally reaching the aforementioned presidential mountain-top, almost as if he's not inclined to give up the digs of the presidency 'til he has to.

[KYRockefeller]

The three highest ranking Dems in the House are all Octogenarians and Stephen Breyer is steadfast in his refusal to retire, potentially permanently jeopardizing the entire liberal movement. The idea that Biden won't seek office because he's too old is contrary to everything that is happening in politics today, and all of the trumpy/left wishcasting in the world will not change that.

Plus, the chief looks great and all that ice cream is keeping his spirits high.

Good points.  Breyer not retiring is baffling to me.  But I said the same about Ginsburg after the 2012 presidential election.  Pure hubris.

[brucejoel99]

The three highest ranking Dems in the House are all Octogenarians and Stephen Breyer is steadfast in his refusal to retire, potentially permanently jeopardizing the entire liberal movement. The idea that Biden won't seek office because he's too old is contrary to everything that is happening in politics today, and all of the trumpy/left wishcasting in the world will not change that.

Plus, the chief looks great and all that ice cream is keeping his spirits high.

Good points.  Breyer not retiring is baffling to me.  But I said the same about Ginsburg after the 2012 presidential election.  Pure hubris.

I don't understand why this is really all that baffling to some when there are frankly a litany of reasons - not at all involving "hubris," let alone of a "pure" variety - as to why he'd retire next summer instead of this summer: wanting to hear next year's abortion & affirmative action cases even if it's as a dissenter, not wanting to go without taking part in more in-person oral arguments as opposed to leaving right now when they're still remote over-the-phone, feeling confident about Pat Leahy's health not depriving Senate Democrats of a majority by next summer, & - of course - wanting to see KBJ succeed him, which likely wouldn't be the case if he were to step down right now, as she literally just got confirmed to the D.C. Circuit 3 weeks ago & isn't even slated to hear her first appellate case 'til Sept. Indeed, his asking one of his OT2020 clerks to stick around for another term (which is an unheard-of rarity when it comes to SCOTUS clerkships) implies that his doing so was just the easiest thing to do on short notice after presumably considering retirement this summer before making up his mind - for all of the aforementioned reasons - on one more year. Seriously, the available evidence at hand just doesn't point to Breyer willingly being "RBG 2: Electric Boogaloo," which makes sense, given his famous pragmatism.

[MillennialModerate]

I had always thought NO. But the longer his approvals stay high, health remains decent and Kamalas approvals are in the tank ... I think I’d lean Yes. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ran and then resigned immediately after the 26 midterms