Who do you think will be the next Democratic president after Joe Biden?

[S019]

I think it'll be Harris, states like GA and AZ should continue to trend towards Democrats, TX could very well join them by 2028, or maybe even in 2024. NC is also long overdue to trend Democratic, and the signs are emerging that Republicans may very well max out there soon. If Biden retires after one term, this obviously becomes a much more difficult question, but I don't think that will happen. I know people will say that the talk about TX/GA/AZ resembles the talk that Republicans couldn't win without VA, but if that trio moves out of reach for the Republicans, which Democratic states can they take? Making the entire Rust Belt Solid R doesn't do it, places like CA, NY, and NJ are far too urbanized. Also the Rust Belt had been hotly competitive pre-Obama something we can't say about states that have been giving Democrats landslides since the 1990s. Maybe at this point, Republicans try to turn back the clock to try to salvage the Sunbelt trio, and I think they will eventually be forced to do something like that, 2028 just seems too soon for that, though. Also there's even no guarantee that the chasing "AZ/GA/TX" strategy will work, it didn't work for the Republicans when they tried to salvage Virginia in 2012, and the urbanization trends driving the bluing of GA and TX, in particular, very much resemble those that turned VA blue (though obviously a slower version of them).

The issue for the GOP is you end up here, if those three slip away, in a best case scenario:



I don't even believe in the destined to become R MN and NV thing, but even if it happens, where do they find the votes? They'll find them eventually for sure, but I highly doubt it'll be by 2028, especially if the GOP does indeed manage to hold TX in 2024. Even if TX doesn't slip away in 2028, assuming NC, NH, MN, NV, etc. will be Safe R is not realistic. The path for the Democrats is simply just greater, especially as states like AZ and GA continue to drift towards the Democrats. Even if I give the GOP TX, the Democrats just need 32 EVs from the rest of the map, very doable in a number of ways, especially if they hold onto places like MN, NV, and NH, which would greatly narrow the GOP path.