This is the electoral map in 2040. What happened? - V2.0
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  This is the electoral map in 2040. What happened? - V2.0
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Author Topic: This is the electoral map in 2040. What happened? - V2.0  (Read 4750 times)
Biden his time
Abdullah
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« Reply #50 on: December 24, 2021, 11:18:48 PM »

Seems like massive depolarization, especially when it comes to urban/rural areas. Surprised that you have Maine going Democratic ;). Also, what do Wisconsin and Indiana look like? The results there seem 2008-esque.

INDIANA: R+0.5


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Map uses Wikipedia color scheme for presidential elections

[R] Republican Candidate - 49.4% ✔️
[D] Democratic Candidate - 48.9%



Notable Counties:

D+16 - Marion County
D+18 - Lake County
D+1 - Allen County
D+3 - Hamilton County
D+10 - St. Joseph County
R+7 - Elkhart County
D+8 - Tippecanoe County
D+4 - Vanderburgh County
R+3 - Hendricks County
D+3 - Porter County
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Biden his time
Abdullah
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« Reply #51 on: December 24, 2021, 11:19:20 PM »

Georgia Republican? What does the county map look like there?

GEORGIA: R+1.9


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Map uses Wikipedia color scheme for presidential elections

[R] Republican Candidate - 50.3% ✔️
[D] Democratic Candidate - 48.4%



Notable Counties:

D+27 - Fulton County
D+13 - Gwinnett County
D+13 - Cobb County
D+33 - DeKalb County
D+38 - Clayton County
D+17 - Chatham County
R+6 - Cherokee County
R+6 - Forsyth County
D+18 - Henry County
D+24 - Muscogee County
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chalmetteowl
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« Reply #52 on: January 02, 2022, 09:32:10 PM »

Detroit MSA 2020: D+13.5 (56.0% D, 42.5% R)
Detroit MSA 2040: D+11.0 (54.8% D, 43.7% R)

Pittsburgh MSA 2020: R+2.3 (48.2% D, 50.6% R)
Pittsburgh MSA 2040: R+1.2 (48.8% D, 50.1% R)

Chicago MSA 2020: D+31.2 (64.7% D, 33.5% R)
Chicago MSA 2040: D+9.0 (53.8% D, 44.8% R)

That Chicago MSA 2040 projection is mind-boggling from a 2021 perspective

meh not if their murder rate continues... i could see them getting tired of it

the rates of violent crime in some cities are popular topics on the conservative message board i come from
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
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« Reply #53 on: January 08, 2022, 01:33:30 AM »

Could we see the Dakotas and Montana please?
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OBD
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« Reply #54 on: January 08, 2022, 03:20:25 AM »

Let’s see good old Oregon. Washington too if possible.
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JoeSchmoe
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« Reply #55 on: January 08, 2022, 02:26:52 PM »

Georgia Republican? What does the county map look like there?

GEORGIA: R+1.9


Image Link

Map uses Wikipedia color scheme for presidential elections

[R] Republican Candidate - 50.3% ✔️
[D] Democratic Candidate - 48.4%



Notable Counties:

D+27 - Fulton County
D+13 - Gwinnett County
D+13 - Cobb County
D+33 - DeKalb County
D+38 - Clayton County
D+17 - Chatham County
R+6 - Cherokee County
R+6 - Forsyth County
D+18 - Henry County
D+24 - Muscogee County


Surprised Paulding County hasn't gone the way of Douglas County by this time as a blue county that flipped by big margins between 2004 and 2008 with constant growth of subdivisions and people priced out of Fulton County.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #56 on: March 01, 2022, 09:53:53 AM »

For WI/IL/IN, I’d say Chicago has become more sprawled out compared to what it is now
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ملكة كرينجيتوك
khuzifenq
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« Reply #57 on: April 15, 2023, 04:03:26 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2023, 06:34:17 PM by MRS. MEE SUM CHU »

Would be nice to get an explanation for this future realignment timeline.



Word of God:

Quote
You want an explanation?
I did that like a year ago so I forgot a lot of the stuff
But basically I just used the data from the PRRI Religion Census 2020 back when that was just released

It was essentially just complete religious polarization
Every single religious group I made all their votes equal
So all places that were Catholic I made them 49% D, 48% R or whatever it was
All places that were irreligious I made them 70% D, 30% R
And then I weighted them all
In a massive excel spreadsheet

So a county that's say, 30% Protestant, 30% Catholic, 30% Irreligious
It'd get

30 multiplied by Protestant_Biden_Vote
30 mulitplied by Catholic_Biden_Vote
30 multiplied by Irreligious_Biden_Vote
 
And everything becomes polarized like that
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
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« Reply #58 on: April 15, 2023, 06:42:28 PM »

Most of these county maps seem to show the same thing, depolarization. In theory I could see the case for that happening, geographical polarization is bound to max out at some point when you have so many counties voting 80%+ for both parties in the same election. I think there will be a slow process of rural America getting slightly less red and urban America getting slightly less blue, but such a massive dealignment within the next 17 years as suggested by these maps would take something huge. Basically, the following factors but dialed up to an 11 could combine for this effect:

1. A massive exodus of urban residents into rural areas and small towns all over the country, slowly outnumbering the pre-exodus rural population (which is stagnating or declining in most cases anyway). Although such an exodus would probably entail these former urban residents becoming more right-wing. For example, if crime rates keep going up and people leave urban areas for safety reasons, they'll probably trend Republican in a "1960s white flight" kinda way. Whereas if the main factor is remote work, that will shift rural counties blue.

2. Urban areas trend R due to racial depolarization. There's some evidence that upward mobility makes minority voters trend R, so perhaps younger generations of black, hispanic and asian voters who grew up middle-class start to identify more with the GOP. Especially with hispanic voters, increased assimilation could have this effect. And if Republicans become stronger with urban non-whites, they stop catering to rural whites quite as much as they do now, leading to a Democratic surge with rural white voters, contributing to an overall depolarization.

3. Some kind of religious realignment happens in America. This has happened before, American religiosity has been a constant up-and-down. It could be either a third Great Awakening that increases religiosity significantly, forcing Democrats to adopt more socially conservative views and improve in rural areas while losing some urban voters - or it could be a massive and unprecedented secularization, forcing Republicans to adopt more socially liberal views and improve in urban areas while losing some rural voters. The second scenario is more in line with the trends, but the first one might actually be more likely. Crisis periods that cause massive political shifts tend to come at the same time as religious renaissances.
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #59 on: April 18, 2023, 10:30:11 AM »

Can somebody show me the Wyoming County map?
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