Rank the 20 most powerful countries in the world in 2021?

[Biden his time]

I think it's pretty clear that the Top 5 should be US, China, Russia, Germany, and France/UK. India is not at the same level - and Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Mexico are ranked too high as well. Just like most other non-European countries.

I tend to disagree with you that it is clear what the top five should be. There is massive disagreement on them as is clearly seen by every post above and all the differing, wildly different lists you find when searching up "Most powerful countries".

Also, I'd argue that India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia are major powers on the world stage, with strong militaries, massive economies, and entire regions of the world where they take precedence. Arguably Nigeria, Indonesia, and Mexico haven't started throwing their weight around yet but their economies, industrial power, demographic strength, and immense soft power within their regions is something that shall be reckoned with very soon.

What about the Netherlands instead? A country with a GDP (1.01 trillion USD) much larger than Turkey's (794 bn), Iran's (682 bn), Nigeria's (514 bn), South Africa's (329 bn), or Pakistan's (306 bn) that has lots(!) of influence in both the EU and the UN, and is home to major global companies such as Shell and Airbus.

Not to be crass, but in my opinion, the Netherlands is rather puny and insignificant compared to the Nigerias of the world, no matter how much influence it may have in the (generally) paper tiger organization of the UN and the shrinking flailing EU and no matter how many multinational corporations who do most of their work in other countries are based there. To top it off, its military is nonexistent.

By the way, I used PPP GDP while making this list, which narrows the margins quite considerably (Turkey at $2.75 Trillion, Iran at $1.15 Billion, Nigeria at $1.12 Billion, Pakistan at $1.11 Billion, the Netherlands at $1.06 Billion, and South Africa at $753 Million). I believe it more accurately reflects the true economic size and power of nations and when considering the massive undocumented economies in Pakistan, Nigeria etc., these numbers might just be even higher.

The Netherlands is efficient, sure, but after a certain point it cannot hold a candle to 200 Million Brazilians strong who are slowly but surely developing their country, and with their massive industrial power are going to be immensely exporting products, ideas, and culture.

It seems that many countries on this list are just there because of sheer population size or the "emerging power" label. But in reality, their power is extremely limited - bei it diplomatically, economically, financially, or culturally. Being a relatively big fish in a very small pond (i.e., Nigeria) is not tantamount to real power in any meaningful sense.

I argue these countries have massive economic power and massive industry levels, as well as large cultural influence and diplomatic influence, especially in their respective regions. Maybe in the declining, shrinking, militarily and demographically weak Europe they don't have influence, but leave the continent, and you see a much larger world.

Also, Germany is not "falling" and neither is France.

Relative to the world they are. Demographically, economically, militarily, culturally. The United States might be too, it's quite borderline. The global future, though, in my opinion, is more Southern than it is Northern.

But Israel, Brazil, or Saudi Arabia might be.  

Perhaps this is true. Only the future will tell.

[Red Velvet]

I crafted up a little list:

• United States of America (STABLE)
• People's Republic of China (QUICKLY RISING)
• Russian Federation (FALLING)
• Republic of India (QUICKLY RISING)
• Republic of Japan (QUICKLY FALLING)
• Federal Republic of Germany (FALLING)
• United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (FALLING)
• French Republic (FALLING)
• Federative Republic of Brazil (STABLE)
• Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (STABLE)
• Republic of Korea (QUICKLY FALLING)
• Republic of Indonesia (QUICKLY RISING)
• Republic of Turkey (RISING)
• Italian Republic (QUICKLY FALLING)
• United States of Mexico (RISING)
• State of Israel (RISING)
• Federal Republic of Nigeria (RISING)
• Federal Republic of Iran (RISING)
• Islamic Republic of Pakistan (RISING)
• Canada (RISING)

I think it's pretty clear that the Top 5 should be US, China, Russia, Germany, and France/UK. India is not at the same level - and Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Mexico are ranked too high as well. Just like most other non-European countries. What about the Netherlands instead? A country with a GDP (1.01 trillion USD) much larger than Turkey's (794 bn), Iran's (682 bn), Nigeria's (514 bn), South Africa's (329 bn), or Pakistan's (306 bn) that has lots(!) of influence in both the EU and the UN, and is home to major global companies such as Shell and Airbus.

It seems that many countries on this list are just there because of sheer population size or the "emerging power" label. But in reality, their power is extremely limited - bei it diplomatically, economically, financially, or culturally. Being a relatively big fish in a very small pond (i.e., Nigeria) is not tantamount to real power in any meaningful sense.

Also, Germany is not "falling" and neither is France. But Israel, Brazil, or Saudi Arabia might be.  

I think this is a very European centric post. If we act like Europe is the whole world, then of course Nigeria, Pakistan, Mexico, etc will have little to no influence simply because European bubble doesn’t care about those places. Even Sweden or Netherlands will be considered more powerful to European bubble because of what they represent to internal EU dynamics.

That doesn’t change how these other places have very strong influence over tons of places. And I’m not just talking about economical influence here. Often in terms of military power but especially soft power.

I only put Spain in #20 for example, not because of economic power or anything, but because of its cultural ties to Hispanic America, which gives it lots of soft power and accessible relationship with tons and tons of countries in LatAm. Those are TONS of potential markets with a population much greater than Spain. How does Netherlands even threaten to top that?

Mexico in the same way, even if I put it barely outside the top20, is a cultural reference to all Hispanic speaking America, they are strong culture EXPORTERS. Even beyond the Americas, they’re a major symbol for the world. The idea people have when they think of all the region in general, is the idea of Mexico. They’re a strong international brand.

Same reason it’s not smart to underestimate places like Turkey and Egypt (which also has very strong military on top of that), often working as places of regional transition besides everything else they have going for them.

Some things you only get done through diplomatic ties and the more closed in a regional bubble you are, the less influential you are. And that matters, a lot. Because you gotta reach out and talk to others even if they’re different from you. Honestly, Europe separately is kinda its own world nowadays, with decreasing influence over world relations.

Only Germany and France are very relevant on a global scale reach. UK too, but much lesser than a decade ago now that they’re isolated and have no direct power in the EU.

Germany benefits from being the EU leader and an economic reference and France is the biggest cultural reference of Europe, besides also having a very strong military.

South Korea obviously has to be in everyone’s top 10 nowadays imo. They check all of the military + economy + cultural boxes. They’re becoming more relevant in these days than old powers like UK. Everyone listens to K-Pop and loves it.

Top 5 is very clear to me as US, China, Russia, India and Germany (as the EU “leader”). Tbh these are the only five, from my perspective, that I wouldn’t want my country to pick a major fight with because they have lots of leverage in multiple and very diversified ways.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Can't be hassled to do a full list but a few things ordinal things I think most of the lists here get wrong:

* France should be third, above Russia and Germany. Germany is larger and more influential within the EU and Russia has a larger military and more nukes but France has a huge amount of real power in the Francophone world, specifically Africa where they support dozens of local dictators for benefits like cheap uranium for their power plants. They also have an aircraft carrier capable of actually projecting power further across the globe than any country excluding the US with the possible exception of China.

* India should be pretty close to the UK, with the much larger population and military being compensated by a comparative lack of economic development and power projection, and above most of Europe (excluding the aforementioned top powers of France, Russia and Germany). Then Israel, which is able to punch disproportionately above its weight class and is an exceptional case in terms of having an unusually developed military and intelligence network for its size.

* Next would be regional and rising powers: Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran, Nigeria, Brazil. Followed by Japan (which would by much higher on the list if their political and military influence wasn't intentionally reduced by their constitution), then mid sized European (Spain, Italy, Sweden, Poland), Latin American (Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Argentina), African (Kenya, Egypt, Ethiopia, South Africa) and Asian (Vietnam, South Korea, Philippines, Saudi)

[Chips]

According to Globalfirepower.com, the world's top 20 most powerful militaries are:

1. United States
2. Russia
3. China
4. India
5. Japan
6. South Korea
7. France
8. United Kingdom
9. Brazil
10. Pakistan
11. Turkey
12. Italy
13. Egypt
14. Iran
15. Germany
16. Indonesia
17. Saudi Arabia
18. Spain
19. Australia
20. Israel

And here's 21-50:

21. Canada
22. Taiwan
23. Poland
24. Vietnam
25. Ukraine
26. Thailand
27. Algeria
28. North Korea
29. Greece
30. Switzerland
31. Sweden
32. South Africa
33. Norway
34. Czech Republic
35. Nigeria
36. United Arab Emirates
37. Netherlands
38. Myanmar
39. Colombia
40. Singapore
41. Romania
42. Argentina
43. Venezuela
44. Malaysia
45. Bangladesh
46. Mexico
47. Peru
48. Philippines
49. Chile
50. Belarus

Here's the 10 least powerful militaries according to Globalfirepower.

131. Central African Republic
132. Gabon
133. North Macedonia
134. Eritrea
135. Suriname
136. Sierra Leone
137. Somalia
138. Liberia
139. Kosovo
140. Bhutan

[CumbrianLefty]

How is "powerful" being defined here?

[America Needs R'hllor]

According to Globalfirepower.com, the world's top 20 most powerful militaries are:

1. United States
2. Russia
3. China
4. India
5. Japan
6. South Korea
7. France
8. United Kingdom
9. Brazil
10. Pakistan
11. Turkey
12. Italy
13. Egypt
14. Iran
15. Germany
16. Indonesia
17. Saudi Arabia
18. Spain
19. Australia
20. Israel

[America Needs R'hllor]

Anyway this would be my ranking (gaps mean tiers that have large gaps between them):

1. United States ↕
2. China ↑

3. Russia ↓
4. Germany ↑
5. France ↓
6. India ↑
7. Japan ↕
8. United Kingdom ↓

9. Turkey ↕
10. Saudi Arabia ↓
11. Israel ↑
12. Iran ↑
13. South Korea ↓
14. Brazil ↓
15. Canada ↑
16. Egypt ↕
17. Mexico ↕

18. Italy ↓
19. Spain ↓
20. Australia ↕


Note that 9-14 could really go either way and have very small gaps between them (if any).

[FrancoAgo]

economic rank, based on import export trade, ITC data
China
US
Germany
Japan
Nederland
France
UK
Korea
Italy
Mexico
Canada
India
Belgium
Singapore
Spain
Australia
Taiwan
Swiss
Vietnam
Poland
(Russia 21st)

[GALeftist]

1. United States

2. China (People's Republic of)

3. Russia
4. Germany
5. France
6. Japan
7. United Kingdom
8. India

9. Israel
10. Turkey
11. Saudi Arabia
12. Iran
13. South Korea
14. Italy
15. Australia
16. Pakistan
17. Brazil
18. Mexico
19. Egypt
20. Nigeria

Pakistan's nukes save it from not being on the list; without it, South Africa or Indonesia slides in at the bottom. Also, below 8, I think it might make the most sense to group countries by region or something, since those countries are realistically only projecting power within their neighborhood (at least for now).

[Santander]

Ranking based on 3 major power dimensions, scored out of 100:

Hard Power (50):
Military Power (20): Indexed to US military spending, with adjustments. +2 for NATO/Israel, +1 for other US defense pacts, +1 for natural power projection, +1 for France (Charles de Gaulle)
Nuclear Weapons (10): 10 if you have them, 0 if you don't. Sharing doesn't count.
Security Council Membership (10): 5 for permanent members, another 5 for US/Russia/China
Arms Exports (10): Indexed to US arms exports.

Diplomatic Soft Power (20):
G7 Membership (5): 2.5 for Russia
G20 Membership (5)
X-Factor (5): Adjustment line for things like regional power, cultural exports, "prestige", cultural ties
Language (5): 5 for English, 4 for Arabic, 3 for French/Spanish/Russian, 2 for Chinese, adjustments made for multiple official languages and unofficial English proficiency

Economic Soft Power (30):
Space Program (5): Scored based on level of funding/activity
Systemically Important Banks (5): Scored based on Global Systemically Important Banks
Financial Services (5): Scored based on overall financial services ecosystem
Capital Markets (5): Scored based on depth, breadth, quality of capital markets
Currency (5): Grouped into bands based on trading volume and reserve status
GDP per capita (5): Grouped into bands

Results:

Hegemon:
1. USA (99.5)

Great Powers:
2. UK (58.6)
3. France (55.7)
4. China (55.3 )
5. Russia (54.2)

Upper-Middle Powers:
6. Germany (37.6)
7. Canada (32.1)
8. Japan (31.8 )
9. Italy (26.7)

Middle Powers:
10. Spain (24.5)
11. Australia (22.8 )
12. India (20.9)
13. Israel (20.8 )
14. Switzerland (19.0)
15. Saudi Arabia (19.0)
16. Netherlands (18.3)
17. Singapore (17.0)
18. South Korea (13.2)
19. South Africa (13.0)
20. Pakistan (12.0)

Others considered for rankings:
21. Brazil (11.5)
22. Mexico (11.0)
23. UAE (11.0)
24. Turkey (11.0)
25. Sweden (10.0)
26. Argentina (9.0)
27. Poland (5.0)
28. Indonesia (5.0)
29. Chile (5.0)
30. Iran (1.0)

Obviously, results are skewed towards "legacy brands", but the methodology is designed to account for various elements which account for "shadow" soft power, which non-Western powers are far behind on. According to my methodology, Russia is clinging on to Great Power status purely on X-factor and arms exports, which I would argue is very accurate. All China needs to do is to advance in military technology, and continue getting richer and it will be a very clear #2 under this methodology.

[Red Velvet]

UK, France more powerful than China? lmaooo throw it away, not even on the same level currently.

Also, Canada over India.

Lots of those scores and criteria are designed to favor western countries.

[Santander]

UK, France more powerful than China? lmaooo throw it away

China doesn't even have a functioning stock market, and the government is trying its best to ruin Hong Kong's, too. (It did score very highly on economic metrics anyway, though)

Lots of those scores and criteria are designed to favor western countries.

Most important non-nuclear weapon source of power in 2021 is arguably being liked by the US, who will defend you so your corporations can go colonize the world.

[FrancoAgo]

military rank, this is based on power projection capability, equipment, not money spent; my ranking on data of Military Balance 2021, so they are near a one year old

USA
Russia
China
UK
France
India
Israel
Pakistan
Japan
Korea
Korea (People's)
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Australia
Italy
Germany
Iran

for the last 3 places i'm not able to rank within this 14 countries
Canada
Greece
Netherlands
Spain
Indonesia
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Algeria
Egypt
UAE
Brazil
Chile
Peru

[LAKISYLVANIA]

1. China
2. USA
3. UK
4. Russia
5. India
6. Germany
7. Japan
8. Turkey
9. Israel
10. Iran

Other 10:
South Korea
North Korea
France
Australia
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Vietnam
Mexico
Brazil