OH-SEN 2022 margins

[THG]

We shall be assuming that Ryan is the Dem (duh).

As for the Rep, it will likely be either Mandel or Vance, and maybe Moreno or Tinken.

Discuss!

[Meatball Ron]

The order of the answer choices in this poll is giving me an aneurysm

Anyway - Timken wins by like 12, Mandel wins by like 7, and Vance wins by like 4. Voted "5-10" since it's the median of these outcomes, and because I think Mandel is the likeliest nominee.

[THG]

The order of the answer choices in this poll is giving me an aneurysm

Anyway - Timken wins by like 12, Mandel wins by like 7, and Vance wins by like 4. Voted "5-10" since it's the median of these outcomes, and because I think Mandel is the likeliest nominee.

Interesting.

I don’t see any of the three as particularly standout candidates, but why do you think Timken wins by such a large margin? She’s probably a superior candidate to Mandel but that isn’t saying a great deal.

[Meatball Ron]

The order of the answer choices in this poll is giving me an aneurysm

Anyway - Timken wins by like 12, Mandel wins by like 7, and Vance wins by like 4. Voted "5-10" since it's the median of these outcomes, and because I think Mandel is the likeliest nominee.

Interesting.

I don’t see any of the three as particularly standout candidates, but why do you think Timken wins by such a large margin? She’s probably a superior candidate to Mandel but that isn’t saying a great deal.

Oh - I don't think Timken is a standout candidate - I just think she's the closest to baseline / generic, and that I'd expect the GOP to win this race by ~10 points in a baseline scenario given the lean of the state and the likely (at least somewhat) R-favorable environment of the midterm.

I am probably overestimating the difference between these candidates, though. I just think Mandel and Vance are both about as weak as the GOP could run - which is obviously still good enough to win.

[THG]

The order of the answer choices in this poll is giving me an aneurysm

Anyway - Timken wins by like 12, Mandel wins by like 7, and Vance wins by like 4. Voted "5-10" since it's the median of these outcomes, and because I think Mandel is the likeliest nominee.

Interesting.

I don’t see any of the three as particularly standout candidates, but why do you think Timken wins by such a large margin? She’s probably a superior candidate to Mandel but that isn’t saying a great deal.

Oh - I don't think Timken is a standout candidate - I just think she's the closest to baseline / generic, and that I'd expect the GOP to win this race by ~10 points in a baseline scenario given the lean of the state and the likely (at least somewhat) R-favorable environment of the midterm.

I am probably overestimating the difference between these candidates, though. I just think Mandel and Vance are both about as weak as the GOP could run - which is obviously still good enough to win.

Point about Timken noted.

Why is Hillbilly Book Man supposedly so weak? I am well aware that Mandel has a history of hysterical and absurd gaffes and that he seems to be turning that blabber a notch up to 11, but Book Man seems relatively inoffensive as well as relatable to the demographics of a state like Ohio. But I digress; I probably possess less knowledge than you do on this matter.

[Meatball Ron]

The order of the answer choices in this poll is giving me an aneurysm

Anyway - Timken wins by like 12, Mandel wins by like 7, and Vance wins by like 4. Voted "5-10" since it's the median of these outcomes, and because I think Mandel is the likeliest nominee.

Interesting.

I don’t see any of the three as particularly standout candidates, but why do you think Timken wins by such a large margin? She’s probably a superior candidate to Mandel but that isn’t saying a great deal.

Oh - I don't think Timken is a standout candidate - I just think she's the closest to baseline / generic, and that I'd expect the GOP to win this race by ~10 points in a baseline scenario given the lean of the state and the likely (at least somewhat) R-favorable environment of the midterm.

I am probably overestimating the difference between these candidates, though. I just think Mandel and Vance are both about as weak as the GOP could run - which is obviously still good enough to win.

Point about Timken noted.

Why is Hillbilly Book Man supposedly so weak? I am well aware that Mandel has a history of hysterical and absurd gaffes and that he seems to be turning that blabber a notch up to 11, but Book Man seems relatively inoffensive as well as relatable to the demographics of a state like Ohio. But I digress; I probably possess less knowledge than you do on this matter.

Just look at a picture of him / watch him speak, and you'll understand. I mean, I may be underestimating him / overestimating the OH electorate - it's definitely possible he'll fool people into thinking he's some red-blooded embodiment of the working class, and win by 8-10 instead of 4-5. But I think he comes across as a dweeby rich dude totally out of touch with 98% of people, and if you combine that with the hysterical gaffes you alluded to, I would think that's a recipe for an underperformance.

The other thing - and this is more of a stretch - is that Tim Ryan (who does a better job cultivating a working class aesthetic than your typical Dem) could probably use the book against him, frame him as anti working class (since one cynical interpretation of the book is that he essentially pathologies the white working class / blames them for their struggles / suggests abandoning social programs). Again, not enough for Vance to lose, but maybe a potential driver of an underperformance.

[THG]

The order of the answer choices in this poll is giving me an aneurysm

Anyway - Timken wins by like 12, Mandel wins by like 7, and Vance wins by like 4. Voted "5-10" since it's the median of these outcomes, and because I think Mandel is the likeliest nominee.

Interesting.

I don’t see any of the three as particularly standout candidates, but why do you think Timken wins by such a large margin? She’s probably a superior candidate to Mandel but that isn’t saying a great deal.

Oh - I don't think Timken is a standout candidate - I just think she's the closest to baseline / generic, and that I'd expect the GOP to win this race by ~10 points in a baseline scenario given the lean of the state and the likely (at least somewhat) R-favorable environment of the midterm.

I am probably overestimating the difference between these candidates, though. I just think Mandel and Vance are both about as weak as the GOP could run - which is obviously still good enough to win.

Point about Timken noted.

Why is Hillbilly Book Man supposedly so weak? I am well aware that Mandel has a history of hysterical and absurd gaffes and that he seems to be turning that blabber a notch up to 11, but Book Man seems relatively inoffensive as well as relatable to the demographics of a state like Ohio. But I digress; I probably possess less knowledge than you do on this matter.

Just look at a picture of him / watch him speak, and you'll understand. I mean, I may be underestimating him / overestimating the OH electorate - it's definitely possible he'll fool people into thinking he's some red-blooded embodiment of the working class, and win by 8-10 instead of 4-5. But I think he comes across as a dweeby rich dude totally out of touch with 98% of people, and if you combine that with the hysterical gaffes you alluded to, I would think that's a recipe for an underperformance.

The other thing - and this is more of a stretch - is that Tim Ryan (who does a better job cultivating a working class aesthetic than your typical Dem) could probably use the book against him, frame him as anti working class (since one cynical interpretation of the book is that he essentially pathologies the white working class / blames them for their struggles / suggests abandoning social programs). Again, not enough for Vance to lose, but maybe a potential driver of an underperformance.

1) When I was talking about "hysterical gaffes" I was referring to Mandel, not Vance. Vance doesn't have a history of gaffes like Mandel I know of.

2) I fully get your other points, but I look at Josh Hawley (the only comparison to Vance in the current Senate IMO), who talks like an Ivy-League educated academic "LARP-ing" as an agrarian worker, but still is very popular with the working class, and I can see how Vance would succeed. See how Hawley did in 2018 vs an incumbent Senator in a D+9 year. Compare that to Roy Blunt, a more "generic" Republican only winning Missouri by 3 in a year where Trump won it by 18 or 19.

3) So I could see Vance pulling it off and winning by a huge margin, based on the fact that I see him as similar to Josh Hawley.

4) I also seriously doubt that Tim Ryan (as well as Sherrod Brown) going full "abolish the filibuster and DC statehood" will help whatsoever in a state like Ohio anyways.

[Meatball Ron]

Snip

When I was talking about "hysterical gaffes" I was referring to Mandel, not Vance. Vance doesn't have a history of gaffes like Mandel I know of.

I get your other points, but I look at Josh Hawley (the only comparison to Vance in the current Senate IMO), who talks like an Ivy-League educated academic "LARP-ing" as an agrarian worker, but still is very popular with the working class, and I can see how Vance would succeed. See how Hawley did in 2018 vs an incumbent Senator in a D+9 year. Compare that to Roy Blunt, a more "generic" Republican only winning Missouri by 3 in a year where Trump won it by 18 or 19.

So I could see Vance pulling it off and winning by a huge margin, based on the fact that I see him as similar to Josh Hawley. And I'm not sure if Tim Ryan (as well as Sherrod Brown) going full "abolish the filibuster and DC statehood" and such will help whatsoever in Ohio anyways.

Oops - I misread your post. For what it's worth, I think Vance is a lot dweebier / less compelling at working class cosplay than Hawley, but it's a good comparison.

I don't think ANY persuadable voter cares about the filibuster or will factor that in one way or another - but yes, regardless of GOP candidate, it'll be a mega uphill battle for Tim Ryan or any other Dem in Ohio.

[Karenthecomputer]

10% Republican victory. No more, no less.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I voted 5-10%. I wouldn't be surprised to see it get into double-digits, but none of the GOP candidates seem particularly inspiring and Ryan is a mostly decent choice, so I have a somewhat hard time seeing a margin much larger than Trump's in 2020.

[Schiff for Senate]

Depends on how good 2022 is for the GOP. If it is a great year, the margin could exceed 10%, but currently my guess is probably around Trump's 2020 margin in OH, maybe a bit higher, but likely no more than 9% or so (if Biden's approval rating is low in 2022, then maybe it enters the double digits, but for now, the higher end of 5-10% is my guess.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is definitely wave insurance but we won't know until we get a poll
I don't think users know what wave insurance is but this is a Senate race not a Prez race Ryan by 5