TX-Quinnipiac: Voters lukewarm on Abbott

[VAR]

June 15-21, 1099 RV, MoE: 3%

Approvals
Gov. Abbott: 48/46 (+2)
Sen. Cruz: 46/49 (-3)
Sen. Cornyn: 41/42 (-1)
AG Paxton: 41/39 (+2)
State Legislature: 41/47 (-6)
Pres. Biden: 45/50 (-5)

Favorabilities
Abbott: 49/43 (+6)
McConaughey: 42/20 (+22)
O’Rourke: 34/42 (-8)
Paxton: 29/32 (-3)
Bush: 26/27 (-1)
Allen West: 25/10 (+15)

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/tx/tx06232021_tdrv25.pdf

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Beto should absolutely not run for Gov.

[SnowLabrador]

Abbott will win 57-42.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto should absolutely not run for Gov.

He said he isn't if HR 1 isn't passed since a judge can throw out an Election based on fraud

[NewYorkExpress]

This one's Likely R with McConuaghey or Beto, but I'd put it at Lean R with Julian or Joaquin Castro, given current polling.

[President Johnson]

Safe Republican

[Meatball Ron]

This one's Likely R with McConuaghey or Beto, but I'd put it at Lean R with Julian or Joaquin Castro, given current polling.

One of the Castros (probably Julian - since he's the more charismatic one, and Joaquin may have a nice pathway to being an influential / top Dem in the House) should run against Cruz in '24. Would probably be the best candidate since Beto is already old news (and will be even more so if he runs against Abbott in '22). I don't think the Governor's race is winnable this year.

[NewYorkExpress]

This one's Likely R with McConuaghey or Beto, but I'd put it at Lean R with Julian or Joaquin Castro, given current polling.

One of the Castros (probably Julian - since he's the more charismatic one, and Joaquin may have a nice pathway to being an influential / top Dem in the House) should run against Cruz in '24. Would probably be the best candidate since Beto is already old news (and will be even more so if he runs against Abbott in '22). I don't think the Governor's race is winnable this year.

Collin Allred would be my pick to take on Cruz (assuming neither Julian nor Joaquin Castro jump in).

[Meatball Ron]

This one's Likely R with McConuaghey or Beto, but I'd put it at Lean R with Julian or Joaquin Castro, given current polling.

One of the Castros (probably Julian - since he's the more charismatic one, and Joaquin may have a nice pathway to being an influential / top Dem in the House) should run against Cruz in '24. Would probably be the best candidate since Beto is already old news (and will be even more so if he runs against Abbott in '22). I don't think the Governor's race is winnable this year.

Collin Allred would be my pick to take on Cruz (assuming neither Julian nor Joaquin Castro jump in).

Yeah he would be a great candidate too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No major D is gonna jump into TX, Beto said on MSNBC unless HR 1 would pass because of voter Suppression and a judge can overturn an Election based on fraud, but that's Beto talking

[Real Texan Politics]

This one's Likely R with McConuaghey or Beto, but I'd put it at Lean R with Julian or Joaquin Castro, given current polling.

I don't see how Abbott would fare worst against one of the Castros than against a popular actor like McConaughey.

I'd say the race is likely R against a well known democrat (yes including Beto and the Castros), safe R against an unknown democrat, and tossup/tilt D against McConaughey (if he runs as a dem).

[Calthrina950]

Abbott will win 57-42.

I don't think he'll win by that much. He didn't in 2018, when he beat Lupe Valdez, who was a weak candidate, 56-43%. I think a 53-43% victory or something along those lines, similar to John Cornyn's win last year, is plausible.

[Alben Barkley]

McConaughey winning and riding the momentum into the presidency is the only thing that makes sense for this timeline.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

There's no way that Abbott wins by more than 10 given that he's governing as an unhinged far-right extremist.

[Chips]

Abbott is favored, Likely R. (possibly Safe R depending on the Dem nominee)

[Person Man]

There's no way that Abbott wins by more than 10 given that he's governing as an unhinged far-right extremist.

Abbott is favored, Likely R. (possibly Safe R depending on the Dem nominee)

Something like this. It might look kind of interesting in September or something but Abbot runs away with it as he runs against someone who is very inexperienced, too liberal/is actually kind of conservative, just gets buried by mountains of dark money, or gets "-gated" by some really stupid oppo thing.  Still the cities in Texas are getting bigger and it looks like for every rough-neck that moves in, there comes two nerds from California (I am aspiring to be one from elsewhere). Naively, this is LIKELY R. If Abbot wins by more than Corryn did, I will agree that Texas has absolutely no interest in anything else besides a war on abortion and drilling for oil and liberal money is better spent in Florida, NC, GA, and AZ.

 If Trump had won, this race would be TIED. I expect it to be in 2026 if Biden/Harris loses. Especially if enough people are moving in that aren't in various cults or coming to mine or drill.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott and DeSantis are gonna win because Voter Suppression will pass, HR 1 won't due to fact it's in The Organization resolution not to get rid of Fillibuster

[The Mikado]

I think Abbott winning, like, 53-45 or 54-44 or so is pretty likely. TX Dems are gonna try a lot harder at the LT Gov and AG races anyway, as Dan Patrick is bitterly polarizing and Ken Paxton, if he survives his primary, is...um...under a ton of indictments. Even if Paxton loses his primary, Bush is uniquely vulnerable to a lot of Republicans who don't like his last name voting Libertarian on that race while voting GOP on everything else.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto already said he isn't running if TX passes Voter Suppression Laws are passed and it's most likely will be

[Person Man]

I think Abbott winning, like, 53-45 or 54-44 or so is pretty likely. TX Dems are gonna try a lot harder at the LT Gov and AG races anyway, as Dan Patrick is bitterly polarizing and Ken Paxton, if he survives his primary, is...um...under a ton of indictments. Even if Paxton loses his primary, Bush is uniquely vulnerable to a lot of Republicans who don't like his last name voting Libertarian on that race while voting GOP on everything else.

Gotta start somewhere, right? I was just thinking about it and with Texas changing was wondering whether if the state not eventually delivering could be a sign that the conservative culture is so dominant that it just changes everyone who moves down there and its a unique problem or if it could be a problem that spreads elsewhere. If Texas looks like Minnesota and still votes like Texas, does that mean that Minnesota will vote like Texas?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's have to get McCounghey or Beto to run and neither one has decided yet due to imminent passage of Voter Suppression

[pbrower2a]

I think Abbott winning, like, 53-45 or 54-44 or so is pretty likely. TX Dems are gonna try a lot harder at the LT Gov and AG races anyway, as Dan Patrick is bitterly polarizing and Ken Paxton, if he survives his primary, is...um...under a ton of indictments. Even if Paxton loses his primary, Bush is uniquely vulnerable to a lot of Republicans who don't like his last name voting Libertarian on that race while voting GOP on everything else.

Gotta start somewhere, right? I was just thinking about it and with Texas changing was wondering whether if the state not eventually delivering could be a sign that the conservative culture is so dominant that it just changes everyone who moves down there and its a unique problem or if it could be a problem that spreads elsewhere. If Texas looks like Minnesota and still votes like Texas, does that mean that Minnesota will vote like Texas?

Texas is becoming more like America as a whole in such social measures as education and income. part of this is people moving to Texas from relatively-liberal areas for economic reasons. In the 1970's and 1980's, the Northerners moving to Texas were more politically conservative than the people living there. Today it may be for lower cost of living (especially from California, where rent eats paychecks like a dog eats an unwatched piece of meat) or places with faltering economies. It's easier to sell a kid who had dreams of attending UC Berkeley or UCLA on UT Austin as a direction than U-Nevada

What happened in  Virginia fifteen years ago may be happening in Texas. Virginia was reliably R in statewide elections since 1952 until lots of people from more northerly states started moving in and bringing their liberal voting habits with them. Virginia may have been the only former-Confederate state to vote R in 1976; it was the only former-Confederate state to vote D in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Abbott winning, like, 53-45 or 54-44 or so is pretty likely. TX Dems are gonna try a lot harder at the LT Gov and AG races anyway, as Dan Patrick is bitterly polarizing and Ken Paxton, if he survives his primary, is...um...under a ton of indictments. Even if Paxton loses his primary, Bush is uniquely vulnerable to a lot of Republicans who don't like his last name voting Libertarian on that race while voting GOP on everything else.

Gotta start somewhere, right? I was just thinking about it and with Texas changing was wondering whether if the state not eventually delivering could be a sign that the conservative culture is so dominant that it just changes everyone who moves down there and its a unique problem or if it could be a problem that spreads elsewhere. If Texas looks like Minnesota and still votes like Texas, does that mean that Minnesota will vote like Texas?

Texas is becoming more like America as a whole in such social measures as education and income. part of this is people moving to Texas from relatively-liberal areas for economic reasons. In the 1970's and 1980's, the Northerners moving to Texas were more politically conservative than the people living there. Today it may be for lower cost of living (especially from California, where rent eats paychecks like a dog eats an unwatched piece of meat) or places with faltering economies. It's easier to sell a kid who had dreams of attending UC Berkeley or UCLA on UT Austin as a direction than U-Nevada

What happened in  Virginia fifteen years ago may be happening in Texas. Virginia was reliably R in statewide elections since 1952 until lots of people from more northerly states started moving in and bringing their liberal voting habits with them. Virginia may have been the only former-Confederate state to vote R in 1976; it was the only former-Confederate state to vote D in 2016.

I am not counting on TX until McCounghey announcement, but Nate Silver Model is 304, not 375/413 map but it looks like due to Voter Suppression will defeat Warnock, that's why he was so upset with Sinema for Blocking VR Reform

[THG]

Abbott wins by double digits.

This is a man who won by 13 in a blue wave year, so I don’t agree with these approval polls. These are actually even more egregious than the Florida 2022 polls I’ve been putting on blast recently.

[Pericles]

Abbott wins by double digits.

This is a man who won by 13 in a blue wave year, so I don’t agree with these approval polls. These are actually even more egregious than the Florida 2022 polls I’ve been putting on blast recently.

Maybe he had crossover appeal in 2018 that he won't in 2022? Regardless, if a path to Democratic victory exists at all in Texas, I think it would require a weaker Republican.