Charlie Crist did beat Rod Smith in 2006 55-45 despite Democrats winning the Senate & House.
2018 they had an even bigger wave year and couldn't win either FL-GOV or FL-SEN.
Crist should have beaten Scott in 2014. Yes, it's true that Republicans gained the Senate and held the House that year. That being said Scotts Favorables according to Exit Polls in FL 2014 were 44/53.
Barack Obama had a JA of 42/57 per Exit Polls
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/fl/governor/exitpoll/Crist though had a Favorable/Unfavorable Number of 51/44. He should have won.
Bottom Line: The Florida Governor Race 2022 as well as the Senate Race will be decided by the National Political Environment next year and I personally can't imagine Democrats getting an even more favorable Environment compared to 2018.
Trump will not be on the Ballot. Biden will have a Record he has to run on that is certainly for Florida Standards waaay off the Mainstream. He has bowed to the radical leftwing of the Democratic Party (Harris/Sanders/AOC).
Finally, Florida has changed. Use the "S-Word" like Trump did in 2020 against Biden and you win.
When it comes to the FL-SEN Race 2010 you mentioned, back at that time Charlie Crist had a moderate Record as Governor similar to his Predecessor Jeb Bush. It's one of the reasons Crist took some moderate Voters away from Rubio that year with far left Kendrick Meek running as the Democratic Candidate. That's no more. Crist has even a more liberal Voting Record in the House the last 5 years compared to his FL Congressional Colleague Rep. Stephanie Murphy. That's saying something, doesn't it?
