MT (Likely R)
OH (Likely R)
FL (Lean R)
TX (Lean R)
WI (Tossup)
MI (Tossup)
NV (Tossup)
AZ (Tossup)
PA (Tossup)
Seeing as how little ticket splitting is a thing anymore (the northeastern US an exception), I don’t expect the senate results to deviate that much from the presidential ones, regardless of how strong the candidates are perceived to be. So there’s a good chance democrats lose in all of these races if the Republican candidate for president sweeps all of these states.
Agreed. Sinema may be popular with Republican voters (for a Democrat), but they are not going to vote for her. I doubt she'll win by anymore than mid to high single digits even in the best-case scenario for Democrats on Election Night 2024. Tester and Brown, as things stand now, are more likely to lose by double digits than they are to win another term. Scott will probably slightly underperform the Republican presidential nominee, and somewhat more so if the nominee is DeSantis. He's favored, but I don't think he'll do as well as Rubio will next year. And I wouldn't be surprised if Stabenow has a very close reelection like Peters did last year.
