2024 Senate race rankings
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Author Topic: 2024 Senate race rankings  (Read 937 times)
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 23, 2021, 11:50:34 AM »

Rank these seats from most to least likely to go Republican:

AZ (Sinema)
FL (Scott)
MI (Stabenow)
MT (Tester)
NV (Rosen)
OH (Brown)
PA (Casey)
TX (Cruz)
WI (Baldwin)

Not listing West Virginia because I think it's a near-guaranteed flip with or without Manchin.
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andjey
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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2021, 12:05:57 PM »

Ratings as for now
1. OH (Brown): Lean R
2. FL (Scott): Tilt/Lean R
3. MT (Tester): Tilt/Lean R
4. TX (Cruz): Tossup/Tilt R
5. WI (Baldwin): Tossup
6. NV (Rosen): Tossup/Tilt D
7. MI (Stabenow): Tossup/Tilt D
8. AZ (Sinema): Lean D
9. PA (Casey): Likely D
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Left Wing
FalterinArc
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« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2021, 12:12:37 PM »

FL
MT
TX
OH
WI
MI
AZ
NV
PA
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2021, 12:14:34 PM »

Assuming everyone except Casey, Stabenow, Sinema, and Cruz is guaranteed to run for reelection and win renomination...

*Most likely to go Republican*

OH
TX (with someone who is palatable to persuadable voters, like Bush)
FL
MT
TX (with Cruz, or someone else who is unpalatable to persuadable voters like Paxton or Patrick)
AZ (if Sinema loses her primary to a weak GE candidate, like a Justice Dems / DSA style challenger)
WI
PA (if Casey retires)
NV
MI (if Stabenow retires)
MI (with Stabenow)
AZ (with Sinema)
AZ (if Sinema loses her primary to Gallego or another strong GE candidate)
PA (with Casey)

*Least likely to go Republican*
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S019
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« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2021, 01:17:06 PM »

OH (Brown) (Lean R)
MT (Tester) (Tossup)
TX (Cruz) (Tossup)
FL (Scott) (Tossup)
MI (Stabenow) (Tossup)
WI (Baldwin) (Tossup)
NV (Rosen) (Lean D)
AZ (Sinema) (Lean D)
PA (Casey) (Lean D)
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Pink Panther
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« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2021, 02:17:06 PM »

MT(Tester)-Lean R
FL-(Scott)-Lean R
OH-(Brown)-Tilt R
TX-(Cruz)-Tilt R
NV-(Rosen)-Tilt D
MI-(Stabenow)-Tilt D
WI-(Baldwin)-Lean D
AZ-(Sinema)-Lean D
PA-(Casey)-Lean D
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2021, 02:53:31 PM »

MT (Likely R)  [Rosendale = Schweitzer, Tester = Burns, Burns = Melcher, Rehberg = 1994 Challenger...nothing's proven me wrong yet from this.]
OH (Likely R)
FL (Lean R)
TX (Tossup)
MI (Tossup)
WI (Tossup)
AZ (Tilt D)
NV (Lean D)
PA (Likely D)
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2021, 02:19:07 AM »

FL, TX, MT, AZ (On the assumption someone other than Sinema is the D candidate and she either runs as an indy or campaigns for the Republican because of course she will), OH, NV, PA, WI

It's generally safe to assume incumbents will be re-elected unless it's Doug Jones type of situation.

And, before someone says it, yeah I think Sinema is at Democrat in Alabama levels in Democratic primary at this point.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2021, 09:38:24 AM »

From most R to most D.

1. TX (Cruz): Lean R
2. FL (Scott): Tilt/Lean R
3. MT (Tester): Pure tossup
4. OH (Brown): Pure tossup
5. WI (Baldwin): Lean D
6. NV (Rosen): Lean D
7. MI (Stabenow): Lean D
8. AZ (Sinema): Lean D
9. PA (Casey): Likely D
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2021, 09:49:01 AM »

AZ (On the assumption someone other than Sinema is the D candidate and she either runs as an indy or campaigns for the Republican because of course she will)

Arizona's sore loser laws would prevent this. Sorry, doomers and sadists, but "Arizona for Sinema" isn't happening.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2021, 11:04:26 AM »

Let's wait until after Brnovich v. DNC is decided.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2021, 12:19:44 PM »

It's too early until we know the results of 2022
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Jamison5
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« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2021, 12:27:21 PM »

MT - Safe R (could be likely)
TX - Likely R
OH - Likely R (could be lean)
FL - Likely R (close to lean)
After this the other 5 are all tossup at this point, depending on retirements and candidates and the national environment and trends. Generally the Democratic incumbents would be just slightly favored but Republicans would be slightly favored in open seats in any of those states. I guess the order for rn would be WI, MI, NV, AZ, PA.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2021, 12:50:22 PM »

Lol Rosendale already lost to Tester, he isn't gonna run against Daines, this isn't MT 2020, the state split votes in 2012
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2021, 01:54:06 PM »

Likely R: MT, OH
Lean R: FL, TX
Toss-up: AZ (w/o Sinema), MI, WI
Lean D: AZ (w/ Sinema), NV, PA
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2021, 02:08:35 PM »

Likely R: MT, OH
Lean R: FL, TX
Toss-up: AZ (w/o Sinema), MI, WI
Lean D: AZ (w/ Sinema), NV, PA

Rosendale or Zinke isn't Daines the only one that can beat Tester is Gianforte, he already is Gov

OH, we don't know how 2022 stacks up, in a wave Mandel and Renacci already lost to Brown 2012, 2018, the only state Rs have locked down is FL and TX in 2022
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2021, 02:27:23 PM »

R to D:
Genuinely I think FL, I'm not meming, is the most likely R, then:
MT
OH
TX
AZ
MI
WI
NV
PA
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Vespucci
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« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2021, 02:39:08 PM »

Likely R: MT
Lean R: N/A
Tossup/Tilt R: FL, OH, TX
Tossup/Tilt D: AZ, WI
Lean D: MI, PA, NV
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Mail-order President
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« Reply #18 on: June 24, 2021, 03:36:28 PM »

Likely D: PA (Casey runs)
Lean D: AZ (Sinema survives primary), NV
Tossup: MI, AZ (open race), PA (open race), WI
Lean R: OH (Brown runs), FL, TX, MT
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Suburban Republican
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« Reply #19 on: June 24, 2021, 03:51:20 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2021, 04:01:50 PM by Tortilla Soup »

MT (Likely R)
OH (Likely R)
FL (Lean R)
TX (Lean R)
WI (Tossup)
MI (Tossup)
NV (Tossup)
AZ (Tossup)
PA (Tossup)

Seeing as how little ticket splitting is a thing anymore (the northeastern US an  exception), I don’t expect the senate results to deviate that much from the presidential ones, regardless of how strong the candidates are perceived to be. So there’s a good chance democrats lose in all of these races if the Republican candidate for president sweeps all of these states.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #20 on: June 24, 2021, 06:32:21 PM »

MT (Likely R)
OH (Likely R)
FL (Lean R)
TX (Lean R)
WI (Tossup)
MI (Tossup)
NV (Tossup)
AZ (Tossup)
PA (Tossup)

Seeing as how little ticket splitting is a thing anymore (the northeastern US an  exception), I don’t expect the senate results to deviate that much from the presidential ones, regardless of how strong the candidates are perceived to be. So there’s a good chance democrats lose in all of these races if the Republican candidate for president sweeps all of these states.

Agreed. Sinema may be popular with Republican voters (for a Democrat), but they are not going to vote for her. I doubt she'll win by anymore than mid to high single digits even in the best-case scenario for Democrats on Election Night 2024. Tester and Brown, as things stand now, are more likely to lose by double digits than they are to win another term. Scott will probably slightly underperform the Republican presidential nominee, and somewhat more so if the nominee is DeSantis. He's favored, but I don't think he'll do as well as Rubio will next year. And I wouldn't be surprised if Stabenow has a very close reelection like Peters did last year.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2021, 06:42:29 PM »

We don't know the results of 2022 yet and Users as usual assume OH is safe R, lol we won OH, IA, NC and FL in 2006/2008/12/18, we will win again

I have donated to Ryan and Nan because Renacci in 2018 lost and Mandel lost in 2012

And Rosendale and Zinke aren't Daines, the only person that can beat Tester is Gianforte
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2021, 06:48:58 PM »

AZ (Sinema): Tossup to lean D.
FL (Scott): Likely R.
MI (Stabenow): Tossup to lean D.
MT (Tester): Tossup to lean R.
NV (Rosen): Lean D.
OH (Brown): Tossup.
PA (Casey): Lean D.
TX (Cruz): Lean R.
WI (Baldwin): Tossup to lean D.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2021, 06:54:36 PM »

Safe R: West Virginia, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Wyoming

Likely R: Ohio, Missouri

Lean R: Florida, Arizona

Tossup: Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Texas, Michigan

Lean D: New Mexico, Maine (Angus King), Minnesota, Virginia

Likely D: Connecticut, New Jersey

Safe D: New York, California, Vermont (Bernie Sanders), Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Washington, Massachusetts
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2021, 07:05:20 PM »

Safe R: West Virginia, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Wyoming

Likely R: Ohio, Missouri

Lean R: Florida, Arizona

Tossup: Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Texas, Michigan

Lean D: New Mexico, Maine (Angus King), Minnesota, Virginia

Likely D: Connecticut, New Jersey

Safe D: New York, California, Vermont (Bernie Sanders), Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Washington, Massachusetts

I am more optimistic about D's chances
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