2024 Senate race rankings

[CookieDamage]

IMO, I have trouble seeing Texas as more Republican than Ohio. Ohio went from D +12.4 in 2006, to +6 in 2012, and +6.8 in 2018. Meanwhile, Texas went from R +25.7, +15.9, to +2.6 in the same time frame. Those are huge shifts. The factors in play causing these shifts in both states (population booming in Texas, suburbs becoming more D-friendly vs. population loss in Ohio, WWC souring on Dems) is not stopping anytime soon.

Brown can be saved with Biden on the ticket and some cross-over support even if the GOP nominee is winning the state, but I wouldn't bet on it. I think Brown or a replacement D loses by anywhere from 4 to 10 points depending on the candidate, state of the race, etc. Meanwhile, if Biden is able to keep Texas close, there's a good candidate, and a last minute surge brings them both over the finish line, I can see the Texas DEM nominee losing from only 3 or 4 points to winning by 1 or 2 points against Cruz. Of course, there can be another poor candidate like the 2020 Dem.

Anyways, I think Ohio will vote fairly to the right of Texas, but not overwhelmingly so.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

AZ (On the assumption someone other than Sinema is the D candidate and she either runs as an indy or campaigns for the Republican because of course she will)

Arizona's sore loser laws would prevent this. Sorry, doomers and sadists, but "Arizona for Sinema" isn't happening.

Just like a scuttlebug jamboree

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown won in 2018 with Renacci and DeWine on the top coet he can win in 2024, and Tester win with Obama in 2012, split voting

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

AZ (Sinema) - Lean D, Toss-up if she gets primaried by someone more liberal
FL (Scott) - Lean R, he will win by 2-3 points, DeSantis/Trump would help him to cross the line
MI (Stabenow) - Lean D, only in a R wave election I can see her losing
MT (Tester) - Lean R, I expect the republican candidate helping the GOP senate candidate to win this one even if there is some split ticket
NV (Rosen) - Likely D
OH (Brown) - Toss-up, he is a pretty strong candidate, even with Ohio getting redder, I can see too much split ticket, depends on the GOP candidate
PA (Casey) - Lean D, pretty same case as Michigan
TX (Cruz) - Lean R, 2024 is not still there for dems in Texas
WI (Baldwin) - Tilt D, same case as Michigan

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

FL: Lean R
MT: Lean R
OH: Lean R
TX: Tilt R
MI: Tilt D
WI: Tilt D
AZ: Lean D
NV: Lean D
PA: Lean D

I think that all of these races have the potential to be highly competitive, though.

[MillennialModerate]

AZ: Likely Democrat
FL: Likely Republican
MI: Lean Democrat
MT: Likely Republican
NV: Lean Democrat
OH: Likely Republican
PA: Likely Democrat
TX: Tilt Republican
WI: Tilt Democrat
WV: No Manchin: Safe R; Manchin: Lean R

[mtvoter]

WV: No Manchin: Safe R; Manchin: Lean R

W/WO Manchin is safe R regardless lmao

It's a loss by 40 pts compared to a loss by 15-30 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why Rs and D's are looking at 2022 make or break yr due to  2024 WV, OH,MT and AZ are top priorities for either party

Why Brown says OH Senate is make or break for him in 2022

[CookieDamage]

GOP gains 3 seats.
Lean R - Sherrod Brown is defeated for re-election (assuming he runs)
Likely R - Jon Tester is defeated for re-election (assuming he runs)
Safe R - Joe Manchin is defeated for re-election handily (again, assuming he runs)

Out of all the above, I'd give Brown the highest chance at re-election, but if Biden loses Ohio again by ~8 points, it's hard to see Brown holding on.

For DEM leaning seats, I think Baldwin and Stabenow will be saved by Biden being at the top and winning re-election in WI and MI. I can see Baldwin winning 52-47 and Stabenow 53-46, vice-versa, or something similar. It's plausible both can lose, but only if Biden fails to win either state or keeps his victories very close.

Texas is a total tossup and depends on many factors. It's still a rosy red state, but one which is becoming more Dem-friendly by the minute. It depends on the candidates and demographic changes. Beto was almost able to take Cruz down in 2018, so we'll have to see what happens with Biden (or another Dem) and a Republican at the top of the ticket. My gut says the GOP candidate wins something like 50-48. Maybe the senate Dem candidate outperforms the presidential candidate by enough to narrowly carry the state against Cruz, something like 49.5-49.1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol FL would go blue before TX go blue and don't think Julian Castro is gonna beat Cruz he wont, Rock Scott isn't that popular like Rubio, the reason why DeSabtis almost lost was he ran with Scott, now he is undefeated and he is running with Rubio