Rate MO-01 after Brnovich v. DNC

[I’m not Stu]

Rate MO-01 after SCOTUS decides Brnovich v. DNC.

[TML]

Are you somehow suggesting that this district would somehow be open to manipulation into something much less favorable toward Democrats than its present configuration?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Safe D, and any other rating would be pure lunacy.

[I’m not Stu]

Are you somehow suggesting that this district would somehow be open to manipulation into something much less favorable toward Democrats than its present configuration?

Yes. SCOTUS might strike down the results test.

[Nyvin]

Safe D....?

[I’m not Stu]

Safe D....?

Not if the VRA's results test is declared unconstitutional in Brnovich v. DNC.

[GALeftist]

Safe D....?

Not if the VRA's results test is declared unconstitutional in Brnovich v. DNC.

What? They are not going to risk splitting St. Louis even if the VRA didn't exist at all. Way too much dummymander potential. Much safer to concede a Dem pack

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R. They will draw an 8-0 map.

[GALeftist]

Safe R. They will draw an 8-0 map.

GALeftist is calling for a total and complete shutdown of red avatar redistricting dooming until our board's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.

[I’m not Stu]

Safe D....?

Not if the VRA's results test is declared unconstitutional in Brnovich v. DNC.

What? They are not going to risk splitting St. Louis even if the VRA didn't exist at all. Way too much dummymander potential. Much safer to concede a Dem pack

I was able to draw an ugly 8-0 map that would not backfire.

[GALeftist]

Safe D....?

Not if the VRA's results test is declared unconstitutional in Brnovich v. DNC.

What? They are not going to risk splitting St. Louis even if the VRA didn't exist at all. Way too much dummymander potential. Much safer to concede a Dem pack

I was able to draw an ugly 8-0 map that would not backfire.

I'm certain that the incumbents are going to pitch a fit, especially when MO-02 is in danger of falling soon in the status quo. We're not even sure if they'll work up the willingness to crack Kansas City yet, I think Bush can breathe easy.

[I’m not Stu]

Safe D....?

Not if the VRA's results test is declared unconstitutional in Brnovich v. DNC.

What? They are not going to risk splitting St. Louis even if the VRA didn't exist at all. Way too much dummymander potential. Much safer to concede a Dem pack

I was able to draw an ugly 8-0 map that would not backfire.

I'm certain that the incumbents are going to pitch a fit, especially when MO-02 is in danger of falling soon in the status quo. We're not even sure if they'll work up the willingness to crack Kansas City yet, I think Bush can breathe easy.

Does the MOGOP even care about protecting incumbents?

[Del Tachi]

Safe D....?

Not if the VRA's results test is declared unconstitutional in Brnovich v. DNC.

What? They are not going to risk splitting St. Louis even if the VRA didn't exist at all. Way too much dummymander potential. Much safer to concede a Dem pack

I was able to draw an ugly 8-0 map that would not backfire.

I'm certain that the incumbents are going to pitch a fit, especially when MO-02 is in danger of falling soon in the status quo. We're not even sure if they'll work up the willingness to crack Kansas City yet, I think Bush can breathe easy.

Does the MOGOP even care about protecting incumbents?

Politicians are an incredibly self-serving bunch, you see

[Schiff for Senate]

I don't know. Regardless of Brnovich v. DNC, during the 2020 redistricting the GOP could very easily renumber the St. Louis district and switch some numbers around. For all we know, MO-01 could end up in Southwest Missouri and the St. Louis district could be renumbered as MO-04 or something.

If you're using MO-01 as a generic term to refer to the St. Louis district, then Safe D. I'm pretty sure that even if the Missouri GOP splits St. Louis into two different districts, one and possibly both will be plurality-black. I'm guessing that district (and possibly both) would be Democratic, if not a D+29 district like MO-01 presently is.

[lfromnj]

Safe D....?

Not if the VRA's results test is declared unconstitutional in Brnovich v. DNC.

What? They are not going to risk splitting St. Louis even if the VRA didn't exist at all. Way too much dummymander potential. Much safer to concede a Dem pack

I was able to draw an ugly 8-0 map that would not backfire.

I'm certain that the incumbents are going to pitch a fit, especially when MO-02 is in danger of falling soon in the status quo. We're not even sure if they'll work up the willingness to crack Kansas City yet, I think Bush can breathe easy.

Does the MOGOP even care about protecting incumbents?

Politicians are an incredibly self-serving bunch, you see

I mean half the incumbents are running for senate IIRC, but yeah Missouri will keep one D sink. The Missouri GOP isn't even fully sure about chopping the 5th district.

[Sestak]

Safe D....?

Not if the VRA's results test is declared unconstitutional in Brnovich v. DNC.

What? They are not going to risk splitting St. Louis even if the VRA didn't exist at all. Way too much dummymander potential. Much safer to concede a Dem pack

I was able to draw an ugly 8-0 map that would not backfire.

I'm certain that the incumbents are going to pitch a fit, especially when MO-02 is in danger of falling soon in the status quo. We're not even sure if they'll work up the willingness to crack Kansas City yet, I think Bush can breathe easy.

Does the MOGOP even care about protecting incumbents?

Yes. All state parties care about (most of) their incumbents.

Not just you here; most of Atlas’ silliest redistricting takes come from people choosing to discount this fact.

[Nyvin]

Also - Let's just say if the GOP REALLY wants to push HR1 into passage,  dividing up the black communities in St Louis among a bunch of ~30% black districts would be the ideal way to do it.

I don't even think Manchin or Sinema could look the other way on that one.

[Roll Roons]

It's not gonna happen.

Splitting St. Louis would be an instant dummymander. Even Kansas City would be risky, considering that the whole metro is growing and getting bluer.

[lfromnj]

It's not gonna happen.

Splitting St. Louis would be an instant dummymander. Even Kansas City would be risky, considering that the whole metro is growing and getting bluer.

False,
Missouri 5th was +20 Obama in 2012 and +18 Biden
Missouri 6 was +22 Romney  and +28 Trump
Missouri 4 was +25 Romney and +34 Trump.


Platte has been getting bluer but Clay and Jackson haven't. The rest has zoomed rightwards.

[Roll Roons]

It's not gonna happen.

Splitting St. Louis would be an instant dummymander. Even Kansas City would be risky, considering that the whole metro is growing and getting bluer.

False,
Missouri 5th was +20 Obama in 2012 and +18 Biden
Missouri 6 was +22 Romney  and +28 Trump
Missouri 4 was +25 Romney and +34 Trump.


Platte has been getting bluer but Clay and Jackson haven't. The rest has zoomed rightwards.

Clay went from Romney +8 to Trump +4 and Jackson went from Obama +20 (2012) to Biden +22. It's rural areas in those districts that have swung hard right.

[NewYorkExpress]

They could easily make two significantly more right wing St. Louis districts, but even then, at least one would be at worst for Democrats, Lean D, and only vulnerable in a massive Republican wave.

[morgieb]

I find it impossible to see how on earth they can make MO-01 (or whatever the St Louis seat is called) R-leaning without causing a massive dummymander.

[lfromnj]

I find it impossible to see how on earth they can make MO-01 (or whatever the St Louis seat is called) R-leaning without causing a massive dummymander.

Pure baconstrips. just draw everything Trump +12 to trump +18.
Still pretty much never going to happen.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

No chance that MO-01 is anything other than Safe D regardless of the status of the VRA.