Buffalo, NY - The Comeback Kid

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Emerson Poll:

Brown 54%
Walton 36%

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/buffalo-ny-incumbent-mayor-brown-continues-to-lead-mayoral-race-with-write-in-campaign

So much for vote blue no matter who.

B A S E D
U
F
F
A
L
O

Write Down Byron Brown signs almost covering the City, Walton support appears primarily from the most socially progressive sects of the city, where she has pretty much maxed out her support. Bussinesses in almost every area outside of Elmwood & Hertel support Brown overwhelmingly.

Support ceilings are always a big factor in Buffalo/WNY races, especially with candidates so ideologically opposed.

A dominant Emerson poll victory on top of it?

Pending a crisis of misspellings and confused voters - I call it for Brown. I'll admit misjudgment if wrong, but this reeks of Cuomo vs. Nixon overhype.

The Walton campaign is pushing borderline Q-Anon misinformation about how things have arrived here.

India Walton won the primary because Byron Brown didn't campaign, and because COVID ravaged Democratic Primary turnout countywide. This was not a pure, ideological win, in the sense Brown's pursuit of another term was not rejected. Thousands of Democrats genuinely didn't know we had a primary. The Walton campaign's inability to understand this is the fatal flaw.

Friendly Reminder: India Walton routinely threatened to face Byron Brown in November on the WFP line. This is publicly available information. Brown did EXACTLY what Walton was planning.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SpecialPuppy1/status/1453204283743145986?s=20

Honestly, this is just the simplest explanation out there if Walton loses - and Brown being very easy to spell of course. Ads don't really matter beyond the margins unless the gap in spending gets dramatic, and then they start to matter a ton.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Emerson Poll:

Brown 54%
Walton 36%

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/buffalo-ny-incumbent-mayor-brown-continues-to-lead-mayoral-race-with-write-in-campaign

Likely Brown.
Walton's chances continue to sink as we speak.

[lfromnj]

When presented with the question of who they were planning to vote for, respondents were all given Walton’s name, an undecided option, and an option for “someone else”. Of those who responded “someone else”, they were required to either write-in Brown’s name (SMS-to-web), or speak it into the phone (IVR).

Yeah that is a big oof in that people are understanding to write in Brown.

Anyway Buffalo has 3 parts.
NW is diversified area with mix of racial demographics and relatively woke whites. NE is the black and SE is the white ethnic where Trump still won 2 or 3 precincts.

[GoTfan]

Emerson Poll:

Brown 54%
Walton 36%

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/buffalo-ny-incumbent-mayor-brown-continues-to-lead-mayoral-race-with-write-in-campaign

So much for vote blue no matter who.

B A S E D
U
F
F
A
L
O

Write Down Byron Brown signs almost covering the City, Walton support appears primarily from the most socially progressive sects of the city, where she has pretty much maxed out her support. Bussinesses in almost every area outside of Elmwood & Hertel support Brown overwhelmingly.

Support ceilings are always a big factor in Buffalo/WNY races, especially with candidates so ideologically opposed.

A dominant Emerson poll victory on top of it?

Pending a crisis of misspellings and confused voters - I call it for Brown. I'll admit misjudgment if wrong, but this reeks of Cuomo vs. Nixon overhype.

The Walton campaign is pushing borderline Q-Anon misinformation about how things have arrived here.

India Walton won the primary because Byron Brown didn't campaign, and because COVID ravaged Democratic Primary turnout countywide. This was not a pure, ideological win, in the sense Brown's pursuit of another term was not rejected. Thousands of Democrats genuinely didn't know we had a primary. The Walton campaign's inability to understand this is the fatal flaw.

Friendly Reminder: India Walton routinely threatened to face Byron Brown in November on the WFP line. This is publicly available information. Brown did EXACTLY what Walton was planning.

Except we're not the ones pushing "Vote Blue No Matter Who"

The #Unity crowd is.

[StateBoiler]

Here's Jay Jacobs comparing India Walton to David Duke.

https://twitter.com/morganfmckay/status/1450163231591473154

Note that he "retracted" - read youtuber fake-apology 'sorry you were offended' - it after pressure from other NY Democrats.

His better analogy would've been if a LaRouche candidate won, since that happened once in a Democratic statewide primary. Problem is KKK is more easily identifiable to the average person in a newspaper story than LaRouchies.

[compucomp]

In the 2010 AK Senate Race Lisa Murkowski received 101,091 valid write-in votes and 2,035 rejected votes. Since "Byron Brown" is much easier to spell than "Lisa Murkowski", we should expect the rejection rate to be lower. If the Emerson poll is at all accurate, write-in vote challenges will not come close to saving Walton.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Emerson Poll:

Brown 54%
Walton 36%

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/buffalo-ny-incumbent-mayor-brown-continues-to-lead-mayoral-race-with-write-in-campaign

So much for vote blue no matter who.

B A S E D
U
F
F
A
L
O

Write Down Byron Brown signs almost covering the City, Walton support appears primarily from the most socially progressive sects of the city, where she has pretty much maxed out her support. Bussinesses in almost every area outside of Elmwood & Hertel support Brown overwhelmingly.

Support ceilings are always a big factor in Buffalo/WNY races, especially with candidates so ideologically opposed.

A dominant Emerson poll victory on top of it?

Pending a crisis of misspellings and confused voters - I call it for Brown. I'll admit misjudgment if wrong, but this reeks of Cuomo vs. Nixon overhype.

The Walton campaign is pushing borderline Q-Anon misinformation about how things have arrived here.

India Walton won the primary because Byron Brown didn't campaign, and because COVID ravaged Democratic Primary turnout countywide. This was not a pure, ideological win, in the sense Brown's pursuit of another term was not rejected. Thousands of Democrats genuinely didn't know we had a primary. The Walton campaign's inability to understand this is the fatal flaw.

Friendly Reminder: India Walton routinely threatened to face Byron Brown in November on the WFP line. This is publicly available information. Brown did EXACTLY what Walton was planning.

Except we're not the ones pushing "Vote Blue No Matter Who"

The #Unity crowd is.

I never pushed vote blue no matter who, and if you don't agree with it nobody said you had to vote for Hillary instead of Bernie, though thanks for causing 4 years of Trump.

Fitting that you're posting from a police state lol

[StateBoiler]

http://ballot-access.org/2021/10/27/write-in-candidate-byron-brown-leading-in-race-for-buffalo-new-york-mayor/

Buffalo holds a mayoral election on November 2, 2021. Write-in candidate Byron Brown (the incumbent) has a strong lead, even though he is not on the ballot. The poll forced respondents to volunteer the name of Byron Brown if they intend to vote for him; the only candidate named in the poll was the Democratic nominee, India Walton. See this story.

The Board of Elections will be forced to do a great deal of extra work to canvass so many write-in votes. The Board would have been better off if it had not appealed the decision of the U.S. District Court, putting Brown on the November ballot as an independent candidate. The issue was the early petition deadline. The U.S. District Court followed precedent and ruled the early deadline unconstitutional, but then the Second Circuit stayed that order, without writing any text of its own. The deadline was in May, although before 2019 it had always been in October, September or August.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

That's a pretty smart polling methodology. Brown having such high name recognition is going to help a lot with the mail-in campaign.

[free my dawg]

I've been fairly consistent with my Brown+10 prediction, mainly that he seems to be taking his campaign seriously now.

[beaver2.0]

This is an interesting case to me because as I understand it, there's a long history of primaried incumbents running write-in campaigns and performing well.  While I have no doubt ideology is involved in Brown's motivation (and certainly involved in the motivations of his backers), I don't think this can be viewed through a purely ideological lens.

Personally I'm backing India Walton, primarily because Byron Brown seems corrupt and the behavior of the judge that allowed him on the ballot.  And the fact that he's been in there for 15 years.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://twitter.com/SpecialPuppy1/status/1453204283743145986?s=20

Honestly, this is just the simplest explanation out there if Walton loses - and Brown being very easy to spell of course. Ads don't really matter beyond the margins unless the gap in spending gets dramatic, and then they start to matter a ton.

DemSocs have this odd, self-defeating loyalty to in-person campaigning.

Despite claiming to be the movement of the future, campaigns either go way too deep into infrastructure (Walton) or overkill social media (think Buttar, Collins, Cisneros) and act like a tech startup.

I think it comes from a lack of respecting even the basic components of campaigning in fear of losing the "outsider" identity.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Byron Brown's campaign has been pretty smart. 'WRITE DOWN BYRON BROWN' rolls off the tongue. I'm sure a ton of voters will have that slogan on their minds come Election Day.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Emerson Poll:

Brown 54%
Walton 36%

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/buffalo-ny-incumbent-mayor-brown-continues-to-lead-mayoral-race-with-write-in-campaign

So much for vote blue no matter who.

I swear to god, you people.  It's a blue-vs-blue election.  Like just stop.

You got lucky in the primary to catch a lazy incumbent off-guard, but unlike some of your other lucky victories, this time he was able to mount a successful write-in campaign.  He's going to win because your candidate is really bad.  Just accept that and move on.  Nominate better people.

[free my dawg]

Glad I can run a write-in campaign against Pappas as the Legal Marijuana Now candidate with GMac's blessing. Just like GMac said, it's blue vs. blue!

[Lambsbread]

Glad I can run a write-in campaign against Pappas as the Legal Marijuana Now candidate with GMac's blessing. Just like GMac said, it's blue vs. blue!

For sure. If Lamb wins the PA Senate primary, I'm going to write in Fetterman because he is also a Democrat.

[Pollster]

Not working on/following this race at all and have no personal opinion, but will say that having a name that not only rhymes but also fits in perfect iambic pentameter with "write down" is the luckiest possible situation for a write-in candidate.

[Lief 🗽]

Brown is also a Democrat so I’m not sure what the “vote blue no matter who” stuff in this thread is all about. Either way a Democrat wins here; there’s no Republican. It’s not at all comparable to a competitive D vs R race where you’re voting for a Green Party spoiler candidate.

[Senator Incitatus]

How are people surprised by this? Brown is a mayor of long standing and the primary had very low turnout. No reason to expect he was a major underdog unless this is the first race where Endorsements Matter. Still, expect it to be a bit tighter than that due to write-in rules and name/party ID discrepancy.

Glad I can run a write-in campaign against Pappas as the Legal Marijuana Now candidate with GMac's blessing. Just like GMac said, it's blue vs. blue!

For sure. If Lamb wins the PA Senate primary, I'm going to write in Fetterman because he is also a Democrat.

This implies there will be no Republican candidate in the PA race. How do people take themselves seriously when they talk like this?

[Sir Mohamed]

Brown is also a Democrat so I’m not sure what the “vote blue no matter who” stuff in this thread is all about. Either way a Democrat wins here; there’s no Republican. It’s not at all comparable to a competitive D vs R race where you’re voting for a Green Party spoiler candidate.

I think the point here is that some folks support Brown although he lost the Dem nomination while criticzing progressives/leftists like Turner who refused to endorse a Dem candidate after losing the nomination.

That said, I think people should be more relaxed about this one. It's just a random mayoral race of a medium large city.

[Lief 🗽]

Brown is also a Democrat so I’m not sure what the “vote blue no matter who” stuff in this thread is all about. Either way a Democrat wins here; there’s no Republican. It’s not at all comparable to a competitive D vs R race where you’re voting for a Green Party spoiler candidate.

I think the point here is that some folks support Brown although he lost the Dem nomination while criticzing progressives/leftists like Turner who refused to endorse a Dem candidate after losing the nomination.

That said, I think people should be more relaxed about this one. It's just a random mayoral race of a medium large city.

I agree the party should be supporting Walton. I think it’s a pretty significant stain on Hochul’s otherwise strong record so far that she is not. But I just don’t think voting for Brown here is at all comparable to voting for a spoiler candidate or a Republican in a D vs. R race, which is what the whole “vote blue no matter who” thing refers to.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Glad I can run a write-in campaign against Pappas as the Legal Marijuana Now candidate with GMac's blessing. Just like GMac said, it's blue vs. blue!

If there's no Republican running or the Dem is guaranteed the win, go for it.  Like you thought this was a dunk but no, I don't care, as long as there's no chance of you spoiling the race and throwing it to a Republican candidate.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I hope New York passes a sore loser law to prevent this kind of nonsense in the future. You shouldn’t be allowed to run if you loose a major primary (progressive, conservative, moderate, liberal or whatever). I really hope Brown is blacklisted from the party (as I would have AOC if she had lost in her initial primary and kept running)

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I hope New York passes a sore loser law to prevent this kind of nonsense in the future. You shouldn’t be allowed to run if you loose a major primary (progressive, conservative, moderate, liberal or whatever). I really hope Brown is blacklisted from the party (as I would have AOC if she had lost in her initial primary and kept running)

NY already has a sore loser law, and I'm pretty sure no place bans write-in campaigns.

Doing so would actually feel far more undemocratic than doing away with sore loser laws altogether.