Who is more likely to lose re-election?

[Real Texan Politics]

Between DeSantis of Florida and Abbott of Texas, who is more likely to lose their re-election bid?


I'll be bold and say Abbott. While DeSantis is obviously controversial, he seems a lot more well-liked by his republican constituents than Abbott. Doesn't help either that Abbott is not necessarily that beloved by the MAGA base. Also I think Beto is a much stronger dem candidate (despite the "hell yes" and church taxing comments) than both Fried and Crist combined. Plus with the power grid failures of this year, it provides something easy for democrats to attack Abbott on rather than just "DeathSantis bad" in Florida.

[President Johnson]

DeSantis (sane, normal).

Florida is far less red and it doesn't look like Abbott will get a strong challenger such as Crist or Fried.

[SnowLabrador]

DeSantis (sane, normal).

Florida is far less red and it doesn't look like Abbott will get a strong challenger such as Crist or Fried.

I wouldn't call Crist or Fried strong challengers, but I agree that Abbott is safer. Neither will lose, obviously.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very, very easily DeSantis.

[Alben Barkley]

DeSantis unless McCounaughey actually goes for it. Then all bets are off.

[Calthrina950]

DeSantis, although I think both he and Abbott will win relatively easily.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis, it's a VBM Election and the results won't be in on Election night

Beto already said he isn't running if Voting Rights isn't enacted because a judge can throw out an Election based on fraud, since Abbott's bill will pass if Feds don't enact Federal Rights over State Law

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Abbott and is not even close, he's underwater and DeSantis is pretty popular in his state, he is gonna win pretty easily, doesn't matter if Crist or Fried are the opponents, they're DOA

[Sir Mohamed]

Abbott and is not even close, he's underwater and DeSantis is pretty popular in his state, he is gonna win pretty easily, doesn't matter if Crist or Fried are the opponents, they're DOA

Abbott may have weaker approvals or be underwater, but the partisan leans of the these states make it still not plausible. This is like saying Cuomo is more likely to lose a GE and Whitmer or Walz. Govs like Abbott and Cuomo may be unpopular, but in these polarized times, they're safe in a GE.

TX-Gov could be kind of competitive if this was a 2nd Trump midterm and a strong Dem candidate would challenge Abbott. Neither is the case here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Castro would be the best thing, Julian Castro, but so far, since Joaquin Castro has worked on HR 1 and it hasn't passed, as I said earlier, why run against Abbott if a judge can overturn an Election based on Fraud

[THG]

DeSantis (sane, normal).

Florida is far less red and it doesn't look like Abbott will get a strong challenger such as Crist or Fried.

Uhhhhh.... Crist and Fried are terrible candidates. One is Floridian Kelli Ward, and the other is Floridian Martha McSally who has had the dishonor of changing parties on multiple occasions.

[SWE]

DeSantis (sane, normal).

Florida is far less red and it doesn't look like Abbott will get a strong challenger such as Crist or Fried.

The Texas Democratic Party can nominate any random guy off the street and would more likely than not have found a stronger candidate than Crist

[President Johnson]

DeSantis (sane, normal).

Florida is far less red and it doesn't look like Abbott will get a strong challenger such as Crist or Fried.

The Texas Democratic Party can nominate any random guy off the street and would more likely than not have found a stronger candidate than Crist

I don't get the notion Crist is a particular weak candidate. He came within 1% in 2014, which was a Republican wave year. There are far worse candidates. He's also well known in the state.

[THG]

DeSantis (sane, normal).

Florida is far less red and it doesn't look like Abbott will get a strong challenger such as Crist or Fried.

The Texas Democratic Party can nominate any random guy off the street and would more likely than not have found a stronger candidate than Crist

I don't get the notion Crist is a particular weak candidate. He came within 1% in 2014, which was a Republican wave year. There are far worse candidates. He's also well known in the state.

1) Crist was far more popular at the time. He’s more akin to McSally 2.0 by now.

2) Florida was more of a swing state in 2014, though it’s not a fully red state now.

3) DeSantis is more popular than Rick Scott ever was.


I don’t think Crist would be super strong at this point anymore, in all honesty. Maybe if it was still 2014, but it ain’t.

[Spectator]

Abbott and is not even close, he's underwater and DeSantis is pretty popular in his state, he is gonna win pretty easily, doesn't matter if Crist or Fried are the opponents, they're DOA

Abbott may have weaker approvals or be underwater, but the partisan leans of the these states make it still not plausible. This is like saying Cuomo is more likely to lose a GE and Whitmer or Walz. Govs like Abbott and Cuomo may be unpopular, but in these polarized times, they're safe in a GE.

TX-Gov could be kind of competitive if this was a 2nd Trump midterm and a strong Dem candidate would challenge Abbott. Neither is the case here.

Texas was only two points to the right of Florida last year.

[Schiff for Senate]

DeSantis, but barely.

  Florida is bluer than Texas, but the power outage crisis earlier this year may hurt Abbott in Texas.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Abbott and is not even close, he's underwater and DeSantis is pretty popular in his state, he is gonna win pretty easily, doesn't matter if Crist or Fried are the opponents, they're DOA

Abbott may have weaker approvals or be underwater, but the partisan leans of the these states make it still not plausible. This is like saying Cuomo is more likely to lose a GE and Whitmer or Walz. Govs like Abbott and Cuomo may be unpopular, but in these polarized times, they're safe in a GE.

TX-Gov could be kind of competitive if this was a 2nd Trump midterm and a strong Dem candidate would challenge Abbott. Neither is the case here.

Texas was only two points to the right of Florida last year.

     I was going to say. TX as of late has not been Republican enough to make the difference a major factor in the calculus here.

[Chips]

DeSantis but he's still favored.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis but he's still favored.

Alot cam happen in 500 days, Gillium was ahead 1 mnth before Election and he lost, if there is a wave which D's need to keep the H, DeSantis will lose not in 180 days but 5oo days

[Senator-elect Spark]

Abbott and is not even close, he's underwater and DeSantis is pretty popular in his state, he is gonna win pretty easily, doesn't matter if Crist or Fried are the opponents, they're DOA

[GALeftist]

I will never understand how a man who won by 0.4% in supposedly Titanium Tilt R waveproof Florida has morphed into this electoral titan before he's even won reelection.

That being said, both will win reelection.

[Tekken_Guy]

Both will win, but DeSantis will do so by a smaller margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both will easily win