Suburbs (and more) 2020: Sanders vs. Trump
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Suburbs (and more) 2020: Sanders vs. Trump
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Author Topic: Suburbs (and more) 2020: Sanders vs. Trump  (Read 294 times)
Schiff for Senate
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« on: August 19, 2021, 01:57:10 PM »
« edited: August 19, 2021, 02:02:56 PM by CentristRepublican »

I'm not sure if there's another post similar to this one, but I'm wondering how suburbs would trend in 2020 had Bernie Sanders won the Democratic nomination, which was very plausible since he trounced Biden in IA, NH and NV. Personally I feel that Sanders would have lost Democrats AZ and very possibly GA and WI as well. Had Sanders won the nomination, how would the following areas have trended and by how much?

Phoenix metropolitan area (Maricopa County)
Atlanta suburbs (Gwinnett; Cobb; DeKalb; Clayton; Cherokee; Forsyth; Henry; Fayette; Douglas Counties)
Milwaukee suburbs (WOW counties)
Philadelphia suburbs (Montgomery; Delaware; Chester; Bucks Counties)
The 4 Biden counties in Northeast MN (Cook; St Louis; Carlton; Lake Counties - not suburban, but an interesting study, particularly Cook County)
Elliott County, KY
Starr County, TX
Essex County, VT
Riley County, KS
Oklahoma City metropolitan area (Oklahoma County)
Omaha metropolitan area (NE02)
Rural Maine (ME02)
Talbot County, MD (interesting county that suddenly flipped to Biden after voting decisively for Trump in 2016)
Indianapolis suburbs (Hamilton County)
Columbus suburbs (Delaware County)
Northwest Arkansas (Benton; Carroll; Washington; Madison Counties)
Eastern Arkansas (specifically, the counties Biden won in 2020 minus Pulaski and Jefferson Counties, plus Woodruff County)
Miami (Miami-Dade County)
Des Moines suburbs (Dallas County)
Dubuque (Dubuque County)
Las Vegas (Clark County)

Also, how might some House seats flip as a result of a Trump vs. Sanders showdown?

These are some counties where alternative, Trump vs. Sanders results might be very interesting. Feel free to predict the election results for any combination of them, and add any other potentially interesting counties I missed (I'm sure there are a lot of them).
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2021, 11:42:51 AM »

All of them except for Essex, VT and ME-02 would have trended R.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2021, 01:08:51 PM »

All of them except for Essex, VT and ME-02 would have trended R.

That sounds pretty possible. On the other hand, I feel like it's possible Bernie might to better in Atlanta proper (home to young white voters who are probably on the more liberal end of the Democrats' ideological spectrum). Overall, you're right, he'd probably underperform Biden in the suburbs. I'm guessing the suburbs would vote similar (or maybe moved slightly in one direction or another) to how they did in 2016 for the most part.
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