2020 Election by State Legislative Chambers

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here are the states that have been calculated so far:



Some interesting notes:

- Biden almost won a majority of state House districts in Alaska
- Trump won a majority in both chambers in MI despite Biden winning by 3 points
- Biden did significantly better in the IL House despite doing worse than Clinton overall in the state
- Trump won 2/3rds(!!!) of the state Senate districts in Wisconsin
- Biden won 2/3rds of the seats in both chambers in NV
- The swing in the NH Senate (likely as a result of low geopolitical polarization)

Pretty much all the remaining chambers not calculated went as expected overall in terms of who won a majority. The Texas state House and Senate were actually both extremely close (76-74, and 16-15) according to my preliminary calculations. Biden probably won a very narrow majority in the PA state Senate (26 or 27 seats, Clinton won 23). PA State House was prolly very close (it was 119T - 84C under the current map), likely slight Trump win though.

[Roll Roons]

Biden flipping eight (!!!) Senate districts in Kansas and four in Oklahoma is actually really impressive. Would be curious to see the numbers for Nebraska's Unicameral. He even flipped two in Iowa despite the statewide margin being essentially unchanged from 2016.

I'm surprised Biden flipped three districts in South Carolina but none in Alabama or Louisiana, since all of those states have a reputation of being very inelastic.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden flipping eight (!!!) districts in Kansas and four in Oklahoma is actually really impressive. Would be curious to see the numbers for Nebraska's Unicameral. He even flipped two in Iowa despite the statewide margin being essentially unchanged from 2016.

I'm surprised Biden flipped three districts in South Carolina but none in Alabama or Louisiana, since all of those states have a reputation of being very inelastic.

All very good observations. I think to answer your question about SC, I think it's because a lot of white suburbs in SC are less heavily R than LA and AL. Also; racial polarization as to where people live is much more extreme in AL and LA than SC,s o you ahve more 30 and 40% black districts.

Also yeah, Nebraska will be interesting

[Pericles]

Georgia is surprisingly close, I thought they had a strong gerrymander there but I guess part of it was down-ballot trends lagging behind presidential trends (gosh, Ossoff and Warnock winning really was a miracle).