Introduction
In the aftermath of the 2020 Election, the Republican Party became starkly divided between the establishment and the Trumpian wings of the party. Though united by a shared desire to oppose President Biden’s agenda, GOP politicians frequently clashed with each other. The GOP establishment believed that for the party to have an electoral future, they needed to distance themselves from the rhetoric of Former President Donald Trump. Trump loyalists believed that the party needed to embrace Trump’s populist message to continue to appeal to the collation that rode him to victory in 2016. Despite the internal divide, Trump remained a very vocal figure within the party.
As the 2022 Midterm election approached, Trump became increasingly involved with the affairs of the GOP. Almost every GOP primary candidate that had Trump's blessing went on the win their nominations. He hosted several rallies to promote prominent candidates. The rallies were filled with thousands of Trump supporters, a fact which he frequently repeated. All of them were dissatisfied with the direction the country had taken under President Biden. Chants calling for Trump to run again were extremely common. Trump, just as he had since leaving the White House, flirted with the idea but never many any commitments.
The GOP establishment feared the level of control that Trump retained over the party. Not wanting a splintered party to hurt their election chances, most anti-Trump party leaders kept their concerns private. A small few, most notably Senator Lisa Murkowski, even left the party. The Democrats hoped that Trump's presence on the campaign trail would be a liability to the GOP. Prominent Democratic Candidates hoped Trump would overshadow Biden's controversial first two years in office.
Meanwhile, the Democrats struggled politically. The honeymoon phase of Joe Biden's presidency was over and Americans of all political stripes increasingly turned against his administration. By 2022, the lingering economic effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic resulted in a continually worsening recession. Inflation continued to increase as the average American experienced increases in the prices of food, gas, and other everyday items. Progressives within the Democratic Party also began to become increasingly more vocal in their opposition to the Biden Administration as they became more frustrated with Biden's lack of progressive legislation.
Generic Congressional Ballot (11/07/21) R +3.5Republicans: 49.5%
Democrats: 46% President Biden Approval Rating (11/07/21) Disapprove +6.2
Disapprove: 51.1%
Approve: 44.9%Midterm Elections
November 8th, 2022
Senate Map (Hover for margins):Gubernatorial Map:
