Harris/Cooper VS DeSantis/Haley (user search)
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Harris/Cooper VS DeSantis/Haley (search mode)
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Author Topic: Harris/Cooper VS DeSantis/Haley  (Read 829 times)
Schiff for Senate
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« on: June 21, 2021, 08:18:21 PM »

What would the map look like in this scenario?

THE DEMOCRATS
 
Harris is the Democratic nominee - Biden has announced he will not be seeking reelection. Harris subsequently cruises through the Democratic primaries with nominal opposition. As her running mate, Harris selects Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina, who is term-limited and cannot run for reelection in 2024.

Final Ticket
For President: Vice-President Kamala Harris of California
For Vice-President: Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina


THE REPUBLICANS
There are five candidates in the running: Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, who runs as a pro-Trump populist with strong support in the Great Plains; Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, with 'mainstream' support; former Vice-President Mike Pence of Indiana, with limited support; Senator Marco Rubio of Florida; and Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida. Following a fifth-place finish in Iowa and fourth-place finish in New Hampshire (he beat Noem in NH), Pence drops out of the race. Haley is doing poorly, having finished a narrow second in Iowa (behind Noem) and winning very narrowly in New Hampshire. She then finished a surprising third in Nevada, behind DeSantis and Rubio. However, she bounces back after South Carolina, where she wins every single county and captures a majority of the vote (51%). DeSantis and she tie on Super Tuesday, splitting all the states there between them. After all the primaries, neither DeSantis nor Haley has attained a majority of delegates, though Noem has more. Subsequently, DeSantis pressures superdelegates / unpledged delegates, and those pledged to Rubio and Pence (both of whom have dropped out [in a moment of deja vu, Rubio suspended the campaign after losing badly in Florida; he lost to DeSantis and come a very distant second, nearly coming third]; Noem remains till the bitter end), and clinches the nomination. Fearing that Haley's supporters will stay home on election day in response to this treachery, DeSantis hastily offers the VP slot to Haley, who accepts.

Final Ticket
For President: Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida
For Vice-President: Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina
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Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2021, 02:31:31 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2021, 02:36:31 PM by CentristRepublican »

What would the map look like in this scenario?

THE DEMOCRATS
 
Harris is the Democratic nominee - Biden has announced he will not be seeking reelection. Harris subsequently cruises through the Democratic primaries with nominal opposition. As her running mate, Harris selects Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina, who is term-limited and cannot run for reelection in 2024.

Final Ticket
For President: Vice-President Kamala Harris of California
For Vice-President: Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina


THE REPUBLICANS
There are five candidates in the running: Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, who runs as a pro-Trump populist with strong support in the Great Plains; Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, with 'mainstream' support; former Vice-President Mike Pence of Indiana, with limited support; Senator Marco Rubio of Florida; and Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida. Following a fifth-place finish in Iowa and fourth-place finish in New Hampshire (he beat Noem in NH), Pence drops out of the race. Haley is doing poorly, having finished a narrow second in Iowa (behind Noem) and winning very narrowly in New Hampshire. She then finished a surprising third in Nevada, behind DeSantis and Rubio. However, she bounces back after South Carolina, where she wins every single county and captures a majority of the vote (51%). DeSantis and she tie on Super Tuesday, splitting all the states there between them. After all the primaries, neither DeSantis nor Haley has attained a majority of delegates, though Noem has more. Subsequently, DeSantis pressures superdelegates / unpledged delegates, and those pledged to Rubio and Pence (both of whom have dropped out [in a moment of deja vu, Rubio suspended the campaign after losing badly in Florida; he lost to DeSantis and come a very distant second, nearly coming third]; Noem remains till the bitter end), and clinches the nomination. Fearing that Haley's supporters will stay home on election day in response to this treachery, DeSantis hastily offers the VP slot to Haley, who accepts.

Final Ticket
For President: Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida
For Vice-President: Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina


I think DeSantis will beat Haley handily, even in SC. I suspect Harris will choose Cooper instead of someone from the rustbelt. But in the scenario you described, NC, WI, AZ will be lean R, MI lean D, PA, GA, NV tossup. All other states same as 2020.


I think you're overestimating how conservative North Carolina is. With Cooper on the ballot, I'd call it a tossup if the climate for the Democrats is decent; at worst, it is tilt R. Don't forget that North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008; voted for Trump in 2020 by 1.34% (after voting for him by 3.66% in 2016) - and reelected Roy Cooper by a decent 4.5% in 2020. He's quite popular there, and North Carolina without Cooper on the ballot is usually about 5-6% to the right of the country (Biden lost NC by 1.34% but won nationally by 4.5%; the difference is 5.84%). Yes, that's a lot, but it still reelected Cooper by the same margin the country elected Biden by. If 2024 is a good year for Democrats, and Cooper remains popular, North Carolina will definitely be within half a point if it goes for the GOP and quite possibly may vote Democratic.

Same goes for Wisconsin and Arizona. They did vote a few points to the right of the country, but they still voted Democratic, so I would say they are tossups or maybe tilt Republican. I would say AZ is tilt R and WI is a tossup; I feel like 2024 will be somewhat similar to 2020 in the scenario we're discussing. Of course, if Biden is unpopular nationally (which appears somewhat unlikely right now), then WI and AZ might lean Republican, but we can't assume that yet.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2021, 02:40:46 PM »

Tossup



Why do you believe CO is safe blue and NM is only likely blue?
New Mexico voted Democratic by double digits in 2020, and only marginally to the right of Colorado. I'm not saying Colorado should be made likely D; New Mexico should be safe D. Other than that, your map seems mostly plausible, except I don't know why you would think Wisconsin flips red if Arizona and Georgia are tossups; they voted to the right of Wisconsin, and yes, they are becoming more liberal, but I don't think they'll be significantly more Democratic than Wisconsin in 2024; the three states will likely vote around the same. Or, if anything, they will likely stay as they were in 2020 or even flip red; DeSantis will likely be a (somewhat) better fit for suburban moderate Romney/Biden voters than Trump, and Haley's presence will likely help fuel that.
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Schiff for Senate
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Posts: 12,247
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2021, 11:41:48 AM »



Unless it's gerrymandered, I don't see how NE02/the Omaha district is going to flip red in 2024 after voting blue by 6.6% in 2020. Perhaps the margin decreases, but it'll likely stay blue unless the Nebraska Republicans pull a brutally effective gerrymander.
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